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Nothing's Cheap Anymore

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Day after day, we are bombasted with asset-gatherers, academics, and status-quo-huggers demanding we BTFATH as 'stocks are still cheap..." Some have even deferred modestly to the old standby "stocks are 'fairly valued'" in a last lame effort to save what credibility they have left when they look themselves in the mirror. The fact is - no, stocks are not cheap (as we pointed out here, they are more expensive than at the peak of what Jim Bullard called an obvious bubble). However, still the shrill call of 'stock-picker's market' rings out to encourage the placement of hard-earned savings into easily commissioned AUM. The fact is - as the 3 charts below show - nothing is cheap - Nothing!

 

There has never been so few (almost zero) stocks that are 'cheap' based on historical valuations...

 

Especially not in the USA...

 

More conservative? Prefer fixed income than risking capital in equity markets... nope, nothing cheap there either!

 

Reach for yield? Rational exuberance? Call it what you want... it won't end well

 

Charts: Goldman Sachs

 

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Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:05 | 4930010 kowalli
kowalli's picture

i will buy cheap s end p 500... oh wait, i think they are trying to delude me...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 20:16 | 4930178 tempo
tempo's picture

Until FED liquidity declines nothing will change. Liquidity increases, rates decline, stock prices/assets ATH, and entitlements increase. What can stop the unstoppable FED liquidity. Part time minimum wage jobs for most. Manufacturing in slave labor plants overseas. I see an increase from $4 trillion FED balance sheet to $8 trillion with 5-7 years. Dow at 35000, 10 year rates at 1.5%, and gold at $700 per oz. and 200 million on food stamps.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 21:37 | 4930375 mickeyman
mickeyman's picture

Nothing shouldn't cost anything.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 03:17 | 4930903 Laowei Gweilo
Laowei Gweilo's picture

What about copper?

I thought it was supposed to be crashing...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 22:27 | 4930509 Dutti
Dutti's picture

I'm surprised you did not get downvoted yet. You're observations are spot-on. Although, with the Dow at 35000, gold should be doing better than $700.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 03:12 | 4930900 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

they are down nearly a full point right now in the premarket, free money, BTFD!

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:07 | 4930017 cpnscarlet
cpnscarlet's picture

I was pretty sure most of us are still thinking gold is cheap...

and silver, dirt cheap.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:15 | 4930036 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Hookers.

Hookers are cheap and getting cheaper by the day... but it's tough to find a way to get them into a portfolio...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:39 | 4930087 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Hooker revenue is imputed into GDP calculations in some forward thinking countries. They are sure to be securitized and hypothecated soon.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 20:21 | 4930191 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

I believe they are called STDs:

Hooker revenue is imputed into GDP calculations in some forward thinking countries. They are sure to be securitized and hypothecated soon.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 20:43 | 4930243 mt paul
mt paul's picture

rehypothicated hookers...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 21:04 | 4930287 813kml
813kml's picture

The trick is binders, binders full of women.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:18 | 4930045 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   I just popped a boner. Time to go hug my bag of Ag. Silver is holding nicely above the 200 day avg. What I really like is the price action. Silver has gently moved back into a more "neutral" status for another leg up. Arrgghhh Mateys, I need to update my sunken boat maps. :-D

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:24 | 4930053 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I am cursed with a family history of Altzheimers I think... or was that hemorrhoids... damn I forget... now where did I hide my silver?...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 20:37 | 4930055 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 rotflmfao! I love you Atomizer.

  Zerohead; I messed up.

   I just enjoy both your and Atomizers posts so much that I accidentially used the wrong name for my intended intrepretation/response to the comment.

   Please accept my appology. I meant no disrespect, and my answer/rebutal would have been the same to either one of you.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:42 | 4930093 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I find most shotgun ammo is still very reasonable.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:53 | 4930125 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes, and don't leave home without it.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 20:24 | 4930198 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Looking over invoices from the last time I purchased centerfire in bulk - I see 20%-25% annualized price inflation over about six years. Manufacturers' costs have not been going up that fast. The return on exiting the position sure as hell beats the return on loaning Washington or the local bank one's hard earned money (or even paying the best bond guys to front run the FED). But then what the hell would I do with the proceeds if I exited the position?

(I don't see the upside in shotgun shells, and I don't want to dollar cost up in physical PMs)

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 23:16 | 4930640 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

And they just got cheaper today. Good for those still looking to buy, I guess. Not so good for those forced to sell.

 

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:08 | 4930020 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Confucious say:  Talk always cheap.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:27 | 4930064 skank
Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:34 | 4930073 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Cunfucius say don't buy Igloo in spring from Flakmeister, unless in Antarctica.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:37 | 4930080 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Confucius say:  Al Gore igloo not what he say in legally binding document.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:49 | 4930109 skank
skank's picture

Confucious say: Girl with back to fire warming whole of her body.

http://redhandedclothing.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&view=articl...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:08 | 4930024 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

The Public Be Suckered
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:17 | 4930043 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Gold and silver miners?

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:24 | 4930059 junction
junction's picture

In other words, brace for a stock market crash landing.  Time for the Big Boys to winnow out the day traders and the investors who believe their financial advisors.  Among investors who followed the advice of the talking heads on CNBC, the carnage will be horrifying. 

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:30 | 4930068 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

oh you didn't know? We have the best economy in the world!
http://www.aol.com/article/2014/07/05/whats-making-us-economy-a-world-be...

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:35 | 4930076 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

We have the best liars on the planet backed up by infinite NSA spying and infinite NSA blackmail.  Hey Merkel, you are sure you have not said something incriminating on your phone since 2002 when the NSA started listening to all your calls? 

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:40 | 4930088 pauhana
pauhana's picture

Life seems to be increasingly cheap as we slaughter each other over religious beliefs, "stuff," and just for the pure hell of it. 

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:40 | 4930089 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

another day, another bunch of bearish posts/charts on zh. someday someone will call the top and be correct. maybe tomorrow... [/sad]

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 19:47 | 4930104 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

BernYellen's Hail Mary on the wealth effect is still born. All they are getting is inflation in the virtual financial markets, with leakage into high-end real assets...for now.

But across the board...

Those that own the real assets will welcome the casino players with open arms for a fair trade in underlying VALUE.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 21:03 | 4930283 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Trivial consequence of ZIRP.

Sun, 07/06/2014 - 22:22 | 4930498 Spungo
Spungo's picture

"Gold and silver miners?"

Nope. A lot of them are above the upper bollinger band. Don't be shocked if they drop 10% while gold remains at its current price. 

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 08:56 | 4931247 esum
esum's picture

How close to the sun can you fly before your wax wings melt.......

Those managing YOUR WEALTH don't give a fuck.......

Commissions and fees are all that matter

There is nothing sustainable in the ussa economy except tax and grow govt,

which creates nothing except falsified stats..... hoping beyond hope psyops turns it around.......wont

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