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Chart Of The Day: The "Weather-Apologist Economist"'s Worst Nightmare

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We have been a little more than skeptical of the extent to which the total and utter $118 Billion collapse in Q1 GDP in the USA was due to weather - as opposed to the tapering reality of an American consumer that feels anything but 'recovered'. The mainstream meteoreconomists have dismissed the weakness as "one-off", "noise", "an aberration", or "pent-up demand" and heralded the Q2 GDP resurgence. However, one glance at the following table of the worst US weather disasters (and the consequent economic growth impacts) should put the nail in the coffin once and for all of the "weather-apologists" among 'real' and 'pretend' economists everywhere.

 

 

As J.Lyons Fund Management concludes (correctly)...

we’re not suggesting that weather played no part in the weak 1Q GDP number. Perhaps it did.

 

We simply take exception to the suggestion that a -3% GDP print be written off as a “weather-induced” outlier.

 

This is particularly so when comparing the figure with historical GDP readings occurring during quarters encompassing the worst weather-related disasters in U.S. history, which generally fared just fine.

 

Perhaps we’re just not smart enough to understand the nuanced effects that cold weather can have on 3 months of economic activity across 50 states.

 

But when we see a GDP figure that far outside the norm of even disaster-related quarters, it raises our BS-meter.

h/t @JLyonsFundMgmt via My401kPro.com

 

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Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:44 | 4933439 SaulRosenberg
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Hillary/Michelle '16. I'm Ready.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:48 | 4933451 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Hilldog/Chewie '16... YOOHOO!

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:56 | 4933651 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Hitlery/Mousse-alini

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:54 | 4933481 kowalli
kowalli's picture

You must pray that Obama is the last president - New president will fack up you twice more in this goverment system.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:00 | 4933505 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Is that an up coming cage fight ? Hillary and The First BaDonkaDonk hate each other.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:04 | 4933520 crazzziecanuck
crazzziecanuck's picture

I could be wrong but there has never been a successful election to President by anyone who was ever Secretary of State...

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 20:30 | 4933780 fattail
fattail's picture

Actually, I believe Jefferson Madison Monroe and JQ Adams were all sec'y of state.  Calhoun threw his electoral votes to JQ Adams in exchange for the Secretary of state appointment which at the time was seen as a stepping stone the presidency.  Jackson who lost out because of this corrupt bargain was pissed.  But that didn't stop him, Jackson, from going on and becoming the greatest president of all time.

Bitchez

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 23:03 | 4934250 falconflight
falconflight's picture

Yes, but that ravenous she devil isn't a Jefferson, Madison, Adams,or Monroe.  She in fact ain't a pimple on their asses.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:52 | 4933469 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Well,   i donno,  it's a consumer economy now.   If it's too cold to go outside and buy a Starbucks 7 buck drink, how are people going to brows for the lastest iPhone upgrade to buy?.    We've got to start treating the "consumer" like bugs;   low GDP activity when it's cold and high GDP activity when it's hot.  

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:56 | 4933490 i_call_you_my_base
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Which means global warming is GDP positive. I'm going to modify my honda to roll coal.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:54 | 4933482 stant
stant's picture

It was cool enough here in ky to turn off the ac for couple days. We are doomed , I should have not thought of myself and turned the heat on.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 18:57 | 4933495 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

I see the "green energy" movement as an "enslave America" movement, a strategy designed to handicap American business, like a giant tractor pull and the American team automatically gets a solar/wind/battery handicap while at the same time they push carbon taxes they push a Mexican invasion of millions of tax parasites, its a great strategy for people shorting America

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:04 | 4933519 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  handicap American business

What American business?  I thought we didn't produce anything?

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:10 | 4933528 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

polar vortexes are know for that in all of history, history since 2013 B.C.B.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:19 | 4933561 viator
viator's picture

If cold temperature can do that wait till next winter. But wasn't it much colder in the past? Did we have a recession every time we had a cold spell?

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:31 | 4933595 Dublinmick
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Climate change involves wild flutctuations in the weather, it is not altogether a heating or cooling event.

There is serious drought and crop loss ongoing however.

 

https://feww.wordpress.com/

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 20:18 | 4933721 surf0766
surf0766's picture

"Climate CHANGE" means it changes.

If it is warm it is global warming.

If it snows it is global warming.

If there a hurricanes it is global warming.

If there are no hurricanes it is global warming.

If there are melting polar caps it is global warming.

If there is RECORD ice on the southern CAP ( AS THERE IS NOW) it is global warming.

If there is no rain it is global warming.

If there are record rains it is global warming.

 

You and your climate religious nuts jobs have no credibility.

 

Peace

 

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 21:13 | 4933952 taggaroonie
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if there has been no global warming, as per the last 18 years, it is global warming

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 23:00 | 4934238 falconflight
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Yeah but what you apparently aren't groking is the underlying sly manipulations of the Jooooss.  Just ask the mick and his buttbuddy Tony Wilson.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 08:05 | 4934789 conork
conork's picture

Its another means of taxing the masses, as soon as the tards realise it maybe they'll object. Maybe

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:44 | 4933626 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

DOW 20,000 will offset any negative effects due to the coming Atlantic Vortex.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 19:52 | 4933644 Dollar Bill Hiccup
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I saw that porn movie ... nasty.

Only thing worse was this chick and a horse ...

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 20:29 | 4933774 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

Where's Canada's record drop in GDP, 'cause they had a winter that was a bitch!

 

(Crickets)

 

•?•
V-V

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 20:52 | 4933871 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

Canada was +1%

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 20:38 | 4933802 hairball48
hairball48's picture

I can't believe that any of the  regular ZHer's are surprised by this news. It was a bullshit story from the gitgo.

Mon, 07/07/2014 - 23:24 | 4934303 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

The pols, crats, banksters and climate "scientists" are caught between a lie and a fabrication.

Or is it caught between a fabrication and a lie?!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 06:47 | 4934698 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The term "the new normal" has not been used much as of late, but going forward it may be about to return. Many investors and the public at large may be about to realize that central banks can only do so much through printing money and lowering interest rates. Both these actions carry with them some very strong and nasty side effects.

Markets have become very distorted as money has flowed into risky assets in search of higher yields. It could be we are about to see the markets morph into a "realizing market", one that grinds slowly downward. Another possibility is that at some point the wisdom of buying every pullback changes and the market simply drops like a stone. More on what the future might hold in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/realistic-expectations-for-econom...

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!