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The Difference Between A Good And A Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The age old question: what is the difference between a good trader and a bad trader... aside from the P&L at the end of the day of course.

While luck has always been a major component of the equation, figuring out just what makes one trader successful, while another blows all his funds on a trade gone horribly bad has always been the holy grail of behavioral finance. Because if one can isolate what makes a good trader "ticks, that something can then be bottled, packaged and resold at a massive markup (and thus, another good trade) in the process making everyone the functional equivalent of Warren Buffett.

Or so the myth goes. Alas, the distinction between the world's only two types of traders has been a very vague one.

Until now.

According to a new study by researchers at Caltech and Virginia Tech that looked at the brain activity and behavior of people trading in experimental markets where price bubbles formed, an early warning signal tips off smart traders when to get out even as the "dumb" ones keep ploughing in and chasing the momentum wave. In such markets, where price far outpaces actual value, it appears that wise traders receive an early warning signal from their brains—a warning that makes them feel uncomfortable and urges them to sell, sell, sell.

"Seeing what's going on in people's brains when they are trading suggests that Buffett was right on target," says Colin Camerer, the Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Economics at Caltech.   He is referring, of course, to Warren Buffett's suggestion that investors should try to "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy only when others are fearful."

That is because in their experimental markets, Camerer and his colleagues found two distinct types of activity in the brains of participants—one that made a small fraction of participants nervous and prompted them to sell their experimental shares even as prices were on the rise, and another that was much more common and made traders behave in a greedy way, buying aggressively during the bubble and even after the peak. The lucky few who received the early warning signal got out of the market early, ultimately causing the bubble to burst, and earned the most money. The others displayed what former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan called "irrational exuberance" and lost their proverbial shirts.

The Experiment

The researchers set up a simple experimental market in which they were able to control the fundamental, or actual, value of a traded risky asset. In each of 16 sessions, about 20 participants were told how an on-screen trading market worked and were given 100 units of experimental currency and six shares of the risky asset. Then, over the course of 50 trading periods, the traders indicated by pressing keyboard buttons whether they wanted to buy, sell, or hold shares at various prices. 

Given the way the experiment was set up, the fundamental price of the risky asset was 14 currency units. Yet in many sessions, the traded price rose well above that—sometimes three to five times as high—creating bubble markets that eventually crashed.

During the experiment, two or three additional subjects per session also participated in the market while having their brains scanned by a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) machine. In fMRI, blood flow is monitored and used as a proxy for brain activation. If a brain region shows a relatively high level of blood oxygenation during a task, that region is thought to be particularly active.

At the end of the experiment, the researchers first sought to understand the behavioral data—the choices the participants made and the resulting market activity—before analyzing the fMRI scans.

"The first thing we saw was that even in an environment where you don't have squawking heads and all kinds of other information being fed to people, you can get bubbles just through pricing dynamics that occur naturally," says Camerer. This finding is at odds with what some economists have held—that bubbles are rare or are caused by misinformation or hype.

Next, the researchers divided the participants into three categories based on their earnings during their 50 trading periods—low, medium, and high earners. They found that the low earners tended to be momentum buyers who started buying as prices went up and then kept buying even as prices tanked. The middle-of-the-road folks didn't take many risks at all and, as a result, neither made nor lost the most money. And the traders who earned the most bought early and sold when prices were on the rise.

"The high-earning traders are the most interesting people to us," Camerer says. "Emotionally, they have to do something really hard: sell into a rising market. We thought that something must be going on in their brains that gives them an early warning signal."

Perhaps this explains why the Fed's job is so difficult: after all it has to pander to momentum-chasing idiots, the same group of people who always blows up in the end. Ironically, this is perhaps the best reason why the Fed's centrally-planned attempt to intervene in markets and hand off the baton of price discovery to the momo group is doomed to failure.

Irrational Exuberance

To reveal what was actually occurring in the brains of the subjects—and the nature of that warning signal—Camerer and his colleagues analyzed the fMRI scans. Using this data, the researchers first looked for an area of the brain that was unusually active when the results screen came up that told participants their outcome for the last trading period. It turned out that a region called the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) lit up at that time in all participants, showing more activity when shares were bought or sold. The NAcc is associated with reward processing—it lights up when people are given expected rewards such as money or juice or a smile, for example. So it was not particularly surprising to see that the NAcc was activated when traders found out how their gambles paid off.

What was surprising, though, was that low earners were very sensitive to activity in the NAcc: when they experienced the most activity in the NAcc, they bought a lot of the risky asset. "That is a correlation we can call irrational exuberance," Camerer says. "Exuberance is the brain signal, and the irrational part is buying so many shares. The people who make the most money have low sensitivity to the same brain signal. Even though they're having the same mental reaction, they're not translating it into buying as aggressively."

Returning to the question of the high earners and their early warning signal, the researchers hypothesized that a part of the brain called the insular cortex, or insula, might be serving as that bellwether. The insula was a good candidate because previous studies had linked it to financial uncertainty and risk aversion. It is also known to reflect negative emotions associated with bodily sensations such as being shocked or smelling something disgusting, or even with feelings of social discomfort like those that come with being treated unfairly or being excluded.

Looking at the brain data of the high earners, the researchers found that insula activity did indeed increase shortly before the traders switched from buying to selling. And again, Camerer notes, "The prices were still going up at that time, so they couldn't be making pessimistic predictions just based on the recent price trend. We think this is a real warning signal."

Meanwhile, in the low earners, insula activity actually decreased, perhaps allowing their irrational exuberance to continue unchecked. 

Read Montague, director of the Human Neuroimaging Laboratory at the Virginia Tech Carilion Research Institute and one of the paper's senior authors, emphasizes the importance of group dynamics, or group thinking, in the study. "Individual human brains are indeed powerful alone, but in groups we know they can build bridges, spacecraft, microscopes, and even economic systems," he says. "This is one of the next frontiers in neuroscience—understanding the social mind."

Conclusion

Clearly more work needs to be done, but what emerges is that momentum based strategies, those that by definition perpetuate bubbles, are the the most rewarding in the short run and the most disastrous in the long run. Ironically, in the artificial "BTFD" market created by the Federal Reserve, the only strategy that still works (aside from going long the most shorted names) is riding the momentum wave (whether it is facilitated by the Fed's balance sheet or not). The problem is that momentum be definition sows the seeds of its own destruction. Perhaps this also explains why some of the most prestigious and acclaimed investors of more than one generation, those who "sold" as the market went higher, higher, higher and is now at post-bubble valuation levels, have abandoned the market entirely, leaving it to the momos and the Fed to keep perpetuating the lie that this time the bubble won't burst.

And maybe the Caltech study should have been rerun in the Fed's bizarro world: a place where only momentum strategies are rewarded - at least for now - while those who in theory would be "high earners" are mocked and ridiculed by the momo brigade whose only skillset is just to push the green button.

Who knows, maybe the lunatics have indeed taken over the asylum and this time indeed will be different.

And to think: the Fed has only engaged in QE for "ony" 5 out of its illustrious 100 year history. Consider the "wealth effect" Bernanke, Yellen and company left on the table by not launching QE back in 1913. Surely everyone would be a trillionaire by now and the world would be overflowing in "wealth"...

Source: "Irrational exuberance and neural warning signals during endogenous experimental market bubbles"

 

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Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:40 | 4938211 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

Did they study brain of Goldman or JPM desk traders: wait for the tip, buy like a madman... then wait for next tip ....then sell to the muppets .. works about 248 out of 250  trading days per year

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:51 | 4938253 BKbroiler
BKbroiler's picture

understanding the brain is controlling the brain, and this is another wonderfully scientific step towards figuring out how to use our brains against us.  Stop hitting yourself, we'll say, when we break a law and a signal from space forces us to punch ourselves in the face... no police needed.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 02:54 | 4938596 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

I love you but you don't believe a dam word I'm saying baby.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:58 | 4938277 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

The best traders are selling Vol into this massive multi-day run up.. Easy $. Can always count on the Fed to save the market. Always.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:37 | 4938216 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

Meh unless you trade for the FEDs

brain is secondary to fat finger

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:39 | 4938221 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

The link doesn't seem to be working.

"The page you requested does not exist."

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:41 | 4938226 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

"the choices the participants made and the resulting market activity—before analyzing the fMRI scans."

Yes, all of those "choices" according to "market activity."

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:42 | 4938228 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

Brain is just the hardware. Mind the software. The soul the power. And karma rules the material energy. Hare Krishna!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:55 | 4938267 Yancey Ward
Yancey Ward's picture

The research was funded by the Duke and Duke Foundation.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:59 | 4938279 garypaul
garypaul's picture

Brain Trading! Why didn't I think of that?

Now I'll be able to beat the market!

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 01:03 | 4938509 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I'm waiting for brain transplants.

Anencephaly is fairly common, so the full brain development is probably under control of a small number of genes.

Clone an anenchephalic body and have your brain transplanted.

That, or go cyborg.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:02 | 4938293 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Whereas most people deliberately train themselves to cut fellings out of it, the best traders I've seen have - to a man - an ability to trust their own instincts and "feelings." Lending statistical or logical reasoning toward the process, true, but always unafraid to listen to their own impressions.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:05 | 4938298 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

You forgot the darkpool and HFT brain image.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:07 | 4938301 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Great point at the end. Bernanke made Greenspan seem like an Austrian sound money guy. Yellen, we will see. Anyways, Ben, you made every CB that proceeded you look like a pussy. If it weren't for them you'd a had us at 100,000 on the Dow good buddy!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:36 | 4938384 Omegaman2211
Omegaman2211's picture

Anyone and everyone trading stocks is a fucking moron.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:44 | 4940237 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

Missison accomplished said Yellen when she read that statement, they're printing trillions of dollars, me & the fed will buy the market, 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:03 | 4938421 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

They find a common scan for traders who get in before the market becomes a bull market, ride it to the top and the refuse to get out despite being told by the good traders to get out?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:03 | 4938422 TrustbutVerify
TrustbutVerify's picture

Maybe I missed it.  i didn't see the word "consistent" in the article.  One can be consistently good, or consistently bad, or not consistent at all - or lucky.  More research needed.  

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:04 | 4938423 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You need a brain image for that? "As long as they keep devouring hookers and blow you've got your man." Oh, and "long after the battle has been lost and his position has been entirely overrun he's still got his finger on the full out "buy" trigger and is talking smack."

The best ones come fresh off the boat. "Risk just meant surviving the journey." Everything else was just "buy, buy, buy."

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:08 | 4938433 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

All of the "good" traders in this study would have been bankrupt at about 1350 on the S&P. did they incorporate funny money into the study?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:26 | 4938454 merchantratereview
merchantratereview's picture

Who needs a brain when your buddy at Fitch calls you a day before and tells you EXACTLY what time they'll be upgrading NZD!

Oh, and quoting Buffet is the dead giveaway this is bs. haha.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:57 | 4938504 Joe A
Joe A's picture

Maybe they should anylise the brains of the people who created MBS, CDS and other financial weapons of mass destruction. They would probably find out they have a lot in common with the brains of sociopaths and psychopaths. The criminal mind.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:58 | 4938507 Spungo
Spungo's picture

lol Jim Cramer

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 04:16 | 4938628 farmboy
farmboy's picture

Let us first start with real traders/managers and Wall street bullshit traders that receive insider trading tips and or information from what clients are up to. Anyone an idea why all these smart Goldman and MS guys are epic fails when they start their own hedgefunds ?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 06:38 | 4938706 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

In a related study, the most proficient traders had uncontrollable urges, during periods QE is in force (and not being wound down), to buy up everything in sight (like grandmas at a flea market) at 10:13 and 3:28.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 06:43 | 4938713 nink
nink's picture

Algos have a brain ?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 07:26 | 4938755 NaiLib
NaiLib's picture

Correct. Algos have destroyed the usual patterns and creted new ones. That might be the reson that this run has gone further than any sensitive trader could imagine. It might even go further setting up world markets for the worst collapse ever.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 07:46 | 4938785 Georgia_Boy
Georgia_Boy's picture

This is like saying people die because they stop breathing, without ever getting to the part about the cancer.  Yes, you can do a scan and see on the screen the nervousness the good traders get when they dump before the fall, but that's not an explanation of why they know.

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