• Monetary Metals
    07/28/2014 - 02:38
    Notice the “icicles” dripping all over the place? They occur at different times of the day. What are they? Each one is a brief but dramatic price drop.

Job Hiring Far Below Pre-Lehman Levels As Yellen's Favorite Labor Metric Redlining

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There was some good news in the JOLTS report released earlier today, mostly in the form of the Job Openings category which surged from 4,464K in April to 4.635K in May, well above the 4350K expected and the highest print since 2007 (granted the unadjusted data showed something completely different but that's a different story). And since this is one of Yellen's favorite labor market indicators, it means that the Fed is that much closer to finally turning the liquidity tap off (at least until the market crashes and the market is promptly forced to rush back in and bail everyone out all over again).

Alas, there was also bad news. As the following chart shows, the trend that we have pounded the table on for the past year, namely the lack of actual hiring continues to persist. In fact, while job openings may have soared by nearly 300K in May, the actual number of Hired declined by 52K to 4,718K.

What does this mean? Well, aside from the obvious, namely that US employers just refuse to pick up the hiring pace (and as a result make the Initial Jobless Claims category yet another mockery of the New Normal as they certainly do not reflect a normal hiring environment), it also means that hiring has barely recovered half the losses it sustained relative to the pre-Lehman "Old Normal."

Ironically, the Fed may be preparing to begin hiking rates even as the economy remains stuck in a structural funk in which jobs are somehow added, even if hiring is far below levels that would suggest a normal labor market. Thank you part-time jobs.

 

Another way of seeing the "New Hireless Normal":

 

And perhaps even more stunning, here is the latest Beveridge curve. Based on today's number of Job Openings, the unemployment rate should be at 4.5%. Still think there is "tons of slack" in the economy?

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Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:35 | 4935238 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"the Fed may be preparing to begin hiking rates" - go for it, enough jawboning motherfuckers, go ahead and raise rates already...

not going to happen...

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:38 | 4935240 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Goverment education.  Too stupid to get hired.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:44 | 4935252 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Government just needs to change the definition of what a "job" is and what "hired" means.  That is how you fix the economy government style.  Now pledge your allegiance to the State.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:40 | 4935249 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Crumbs would agree. The Crumbs bake shop just crumbled and shut its stores. I used to like some of their baked goods but a tad too expensive.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:25 | 4935420 xtop23
xtop23's picture

+1 LoP.

I dare 'em.

This entire thing will detonate at light-fucking-speed. Quit dickin' around and do it already.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:39 | 4935242 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I was just wondering... are there also part time whores? You know... like part time presidents?

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:23 | 4935408 max2205
max2205's picture

They get off their part time job at 1.   

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:39 | 4935243 pods
pods's picture

If raising rates is being put out they really must be shitting bricks about the FRN losing reserve status.

"Come back baby, I swear I won't hit you again and make you fuck my friends."

pods

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:26 | 4935428 xtop23
xtop23's picture

^ truth

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:43 | 4935253 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

The question remains whether the market will tank before mid term elections or just afterwards.  

Today is a good day IMHO.

Leave no incumbent in office.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:52 | 4935541 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please Angie, when voting is reduced to picking a new corporate spokesperson it really does not matter.

Leaving no incumbent alive might make a difference.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 13:13 | 4935850 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

'Why get a job and work," my neighbor asks. He said he is flying down to Tijuana and then walking back across the border pretending to be illegal so he can get Free Food, Free Health Care, Free Tuition, Free Housing, Free Lagel Aide, and a new car.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:44 | 4935258 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

To the FAZmobile!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:45 | 4935262 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

hey yellen, krugman called

 

everything is fine

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:28 | 4935437 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Bathtubs have leaks.... no biggie.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:48 | 4935269 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Charts.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:49 | 4935271 IANAE
IANAE's picture

I have to wonder how the JOLTS figures are adjusted, if at all, to take account of job postings that - in effect - exist in perpetuity, i.e. if firms post openings and roll/refresh every 30-60 days (like relisting a house for sale) but never actually fill.

 

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:56 | 4935298 yogibear
yogibear's picture

More and more QE Federal Reserve money printers. 

Then this morning's BS with Liesman and exporting of US oil.  All smoke and mirrors. Raise the prices internally until the masses riot and start shooting.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 10:59 | 4935303 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

The part-time thang from Obambacare is obscuring all chart actions.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:08 | 4935333 IANAE
IANAE's picture

I can believe that's part of it, but looking at the first chart you can see the correlation between the two series breaks in mid-2009... so either the JOLTS should be fixed or renamed.

 

Suggestion: "DOLTS" = Doubtful Opportunities and Labor Turnover Survey

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:36 | 4935475 Cattender
Cattender's picture

i work part time.. 30 hrs a week.. or is that NOW considered Full Time in this New Normal..

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 11:53 | 4935544 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

If I had a nickle for every time I read an article that said the Fed is

going to raise interest rates, I would be a 1%er today. The 'Fed' cannot raise interest rates, ever! The 'economy' is blasting downhill and increasing speed exponentially every day. Lies, God damned lies, and

statistics do not make an 'economy' that is anything but imagined.

USA Economics reads like 'astrology' today. Very little makes sense and

basic logic is nonexistent. Economics has turned into one BIG worldwide joke that serves belly laughs to the ruling classless kleptocrats as they drive to their banks.

I'm not laughing and I don't believe this is very funny.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 12:29 | 4935683 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Expected job openings came in far better than predicted....well who gives a shit? We base everything now on what some egghead projected, never mind the underlying trainwreck.

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