KBRA Q2 2014 Bank Earnings Preview & The “Bernanke Shokku"

Below is an excerpt from my latest research report from Kroll Bond Rating Agency (www.kbra.com).  I became head of research at KBRA a couple of months back, which is why I have not had a lot of time for external writing. I am responsible for our financial institutions group (FIG) and also our corporate ratings activity. 

Check out the number of regional and community bank ratings reports we have published in the past two months.  This is the hottest area in the banking industry at present.  Additionally, we cover specialty finance and business development corporations from FIG.  KBRA is also very active in CMBS, RMBS, ABS and Public Finance and publishes research and ratings on a number of different issuers and asset classes. If you register on the KBRA web site, you can read all of our ratings reports, research and methodologies free of charge.

The most recent FIG research report, "Q2 2014 Bank Earnings Preview," looks at some of the issues facing the US banking industry going into the second half of 2014, including falling volumes, low interest rates and overly helpful Fed Chairs.  The first section, The “Bernanke Shokku," talks about how the bond markets reacted last summer when former Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to open the proverbial kimono.  An excerpt from the report talking about about the downward trend in bank revenue and earnings follows below:

Credit Cost Improvements

Another factor that is important for investors to appreciate is that the improvements in bank operating income and credit expenses since the financial crisis have largely been achieved.  After peaking at over $70 billion in provision expenses in Q4 2008, credit costs for all US banks have fallen sharply. Bank credit costs probably troughed in Q3 of 2013, however, and have trended slightly higher since. Chart 3 shows the relationship between credit loss provisions and operating income for all US banks over the past two decades.

Operating income, conversely, recovered to almost $60 billion in Q1 2013, but has been slowly declining since then due mainly to the Fed’s low interest rate policy and the general decline in lending and trading volumes.  The FDIC notes that total loans and leases increased by $37.8 billion (0.5 percent) during the quarter, but the increases were limited to C&I loans, non-farm and multi-family real estate and auto loans.  

In addition, another factor that may hurt bank operating income in the future is the fact the releases of loan loss provisions back into income may not be possible. The FDIC noted with respect to the Q1 2014 results that “the largest positive contribution to the year-over-year change in earnings came from reduced loan-loss provisions. The $7.6 billion that banks set aside for their loan-loss reserves was $3.3 billion (30.3 percent) lower than the year before.” 

Click on the link above to read the rest of the report.  Some other research reports you may find of interest include:

Wells Fargo & Company 

https://www.krollbondratings.com/show_report/1296

Overview of Mortgage Servicing Rights

https://www.krollbondratings.com/show_report/1291

Barclays PLC Earnings Comment – First Quarter 2014 

https://www.krollbondratings.com/show_report/1283

Capital Requirements for Non-Bank Mortgage Companies

https://www.krollbondratings.com/show_report/1244

Best,

Chris

Comments

[disabledvet]

HUGE carry (TED spread.). Wall Street has gotten out of hand (again...surprised?) and this time around "that's Wall street's problem."

There are truly stupendous amounts of capital that are being deployed right now (how can Wall Street deploy capital "inefficiently" again?) so yet again "it's all about risk."

That's all the term "Too Big to Fail" means..."we didn't take into account the risk." So AIG, GM, Chrysler, et al had to get bailed out. "But Wall Street just took out Detroit in the name of recovery." You think they care? Bwhahahahaha. NOT!

So now it's turned out the whole thing has been money down a rat hole...Wall Street's rat hole ironically enough...and it's time for the bill to come due.

In my view Japan (the past thirty years) and Europe (the next thirty?) are in far worse shape.

Declare victory...get out of all these "foreign entanglements" and call it "a plan." We don't owe anybody anything and the folks actually running this whole dog and pony show will tell you exactly that.

[kurt]

Is this "the" Kroll? The black ops and access to NSA data should help. But why would you help us?

[Fuh Querada]

Who's this "bernank" fella?