• Pivotfarm
    07/27/2014 - 17:57
    There never seems to be a day that goes by without someone predicting that China is going to go down the Yangtze and end up some creek without a paddle.

Marc Faber: Stocks Could Crash 30% Because "Obama's A Very Poor President"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"There is a colossal bubble in all asset prices and eventually it will burst," is the subtle recurring message from The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report's Marc Faber, warnings that "maybe has begun to burst already." While Faber admits he has called for such a correction previously, he notes that the difference now is that "valuations are so much higher; and contrary to what the mainstream economists believe, I don't believe the global economy is strengthening; in fact I believe it is weakening." Furthermore, while "you never know what will trigger for a bull market or bear market is until after the fact," Faber offers 3 factors (aside from the Fed) that could trigger a 30% crash or more... beginning with "a) In The White House we have a very poor President - which will lead to political issues domestically in the US," which are not priced in.

 

 

Annotated Transcript:

"There is a colossal bubble in all asset prices and eventually it will burst.. and maybe has begun to burst already"

 

"We are not going to have a 'correction'; but we are going to have a bear market"

 

"You never know what will trigger a bull market or what will trigger a bear market - you only know it after the fact"

 

"When markets peak out, nobody can believe that it could go down and we have an environment where everybody puts their faith in central banks printing money - and therefore asset prices cannot go down"

 

"I look for 30% - if you can't buy something with the expectation that it could drop 30% then don't even get out of your bed in the morning because we have within markets now a lot of volatility" - no matter how obscured it is by the VIX.

 

While Faber admits he has called for such a correction previously, he notes that the difference now is that "valuations are so much higher; and contrary to what the mainstream economists believe, I don't believe the global economy is strengthening; in fact I believe it is weakening."

 

Analysts are all bullish for the next quarter's earnings but as Faber says "I have never met an analysts who predicted a downturn in earnings"

 

The fact is simply, he notes "earnings have been boosted by stock buybacks not by revenue growth and earnings are grossly inflated due to artificially low interest rates... don't rely on analysts expectations as of today."

 

Faber thinks there are other factors that could drive prices down aside from a Fed that raises rates sooner rather than later (which he doesn't expect)

 

a) In The White House we have a very poor President - which will lead to political issues domestically in the US (which are not priced in);

 

b) we have numerous geopolitical issues to consider (that are not priced in); and

 

c) We could have potentially a much higher oil price (which is not priced in)

*  *  *

The rest of the clip offer sup a Gartman vs Schiff debate over the merits of gold... worth the price of admission (and a desparate attempt by Gartman to explain how he was so wrong about Corn)

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Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:32 | 4937956 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Time to hang em up Marc.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:34 | 4937964 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Breathing through an aqualung

Four concrete walls No place to run

Lightbulbs cant replace the sun

When will it end?

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:37 | 4937977 Manthong
Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:58 | 4938079 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Wolf!  Wolf!  Everybody come running, I saw a wolf!

And then, one day, after being long-discredited for opening his yap too damned often.....

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:59 | 4938085 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

Obama is an utter mess however rates are going to rise due to consumer goods price inflation.

After the initial panic into cash, there will be a run into real assets and then we'll really see the effects of trillions of central bank money printing in the past and the present.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:02 | 4938100 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Stop it.  I'm getting all misty.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:34 | 4938356 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

 

 

"Obama's A Very Poor President"

-------------------------------------

Dat's raciss!

Good thing you're not an American, Marc Faber...

Or Obozo would sic his IRS on your ass in a heartbeat!

Instead, you need to keep an eye out for drones...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:55 | 4938461 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

What stops the c.b.'s from buying another $29 trillion of assets with money from nothing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-15/cluster-central-banks-have-secretly-invested-29-trillion-market

Look at them yoyo's

That's the way you do it

Print some money in an SPV

That ain't workin, that's the way you do it

Money from nothin at your favorite c.b.

 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:57 | 4938505 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

The way a hyperinflation looks is that everything gets more expensive, including stocks.  While this might well be a bubble in stocks, it might also be people fleeing out of dollars and into fractions of productive businesses - before everyone else holding dollars does the same.  And by the way there are a lot of such dollars on various central bank balance sheets.  Russia, for example, might want to diversify out of their dollar holdings, by buying real assets.  Hyperinflationary collapses are spoken of here; what would those things look like, at the beginning of the end?  This.  

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 01:40 | 4938539 Liberal
Liberal's picture

Obama is the greatest president in American history. He pulled us out of a major financial crisis and look at us now! Jobs, jobs, jobs are EVERYWHERE!

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 02:45 | 4938586 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

rehypothecator, you're right on the mark.  people are discounting the possibility that this is the beggining of the end.  people are still believing the usd will hold value, and discounting the H word.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:41 | 4938224 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Farber... you optimist tease.

 

You know they all have central bankers balls deposited up the ass. Not just Obama.

 

30% LOL. Thats the first 1-5 days of trading.

What I want to know is.....

When the shit clears the air, how are you going to proove ownership? DTCC contract laws a bitch.

 

RIPS

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:00 | 4938082 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

-

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:02 | 4938096 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Mark: “Stocks Could Crash 30% Because "Obama's A Very Poor President"

I just wonder if the stocks had gone up 30%?...... Wait a minute?

I am very sorry to repost it….. But I heard Mark reads Zero Hedge, so let me get this message to him.

Mark,

From a fan of yours:

It's all a big scan, Buddy! Our wages and profits, as well as minimum wages shitty jobs, are All powered by cheap money and lots of credit.

Minimum wage hogwash, free-market delusion, land of the free self-deception are just meaningless slogans ‘clichés’ to distract the clueless from the real issue —to many people and little growth.

The idea that we are sooooooo productive; and that we should look at the sham called Wall Street for answers, is a complete joke.

Time to retire… or get real!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:06 | 4938116 fnord88
fnord88's picture

Mark has been preaching the same shit for the last 6 years. I guess one day he will be right, then claim to have predicted it all along. Meanwhile, out here in the real world, timing matters.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:43 | 4938220 milbank
milbank's picture

"Mark has been preaching the same shit for the last 6 years."

So have all the Tyler Durdens as well.  Heck, this whole site, Zerohedge, has been dedicated to this exact "same shit for the last 6 years." 

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:57 | 4938276 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

That could have been funnier if you had set up a new ZH account

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:14 | 4938327 milbank
milbank's picture

I wasn't trying to be funny, dog breath.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:28 | 4938464 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I know but the slight exageration "6 years" made me check how long you've beeen here  -  4+ years not 6.    Could have ben funnier  - just sayin

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 01:25 | 4938528 August
August's picture

For the record, there are in fact folk (e.g. myself) who lurk at ZH for years before registering.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 02:00 | 4938549 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

"lurked for years"    I guess the Merkel avatar is appropriate then as she seems to have come from nowhere too.    Is Zh six years old

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 05:00 | 4938640 ebear
ebear's picture

 "Is Zh six years old"

5 years, 5 months, 9 days.   Close enough.

And what's with all the seniority bullshit?   What is this, the fucking Teamsters Union?



Wed, 07/09/2014 - 05:01 | 4938641 ebear
ebear's picture

 "Is Zh six years old"

5 years, 5 months, 9 days.   Close enough.

And what's with all the seniority bullshit?   What is this, the fucking Teamsters Union?



Tue, 07/08/2014 - 23:07 | 4938304 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I think people remember Faber when they watch him repeatedly on CNBC.  Remember he isn't shilling for Wallstreet getting everyone to buy.  He's telling everyone to get safe. For years I was of the opinion that the bond market would trigger the meltdown but the fed has circumvented that trigger with ZIRP and QE.  I am starting to think now that if the price of oil goes up with the turmoil in Iraq and Ukraine, that could trigger bigger problems.  I am guessing that that would trigger a collapse of whats left of retail spending and also hit real estate.

 

 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 07:19 | 4938740 ebear
ebear's picture

"I think people remember Faber when they watch him repeatedly on CNBC.  "

 Good cover for CNBC.  Makes them look more "jouralistic" and less like what they really are, i.e. Wall Street shills.

Fools some of the people I guess, but then Faber (and I include Santelli here) are no fools.

So, either they know they're being used and believe they can work around that fact and get some sort of message across

OR

They are sellouts who don't mind being used that way as long as it serves them personally.

Whicih is it?

It's a question I would ask both of them, if I ever got the chance.

 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 12:56 | 4940071 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

Schiff is a better example of how CNBC had to smarten up.   I think they brought Schiff on just to be a punching bag but then he was proved right.   I'm guessing that they are trying to appear balanced.   Makes me wonder if that turd Cramer still comes on.  I don't own a TV

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 10:29 | 4939387 OceanX
OceanX's picture

" the price of oil goes up"

Don't worry the price of oil will go up.  Anytime, something grows as a percentage, the growth rate is exponential.  The CBs can suppress the price of oil for only so long.  When people demand the physical object in lieu of a paper coupon, we will be playiing a new game...

 

http://www.peakprosperity.com/crashcourse/chapter-4-compounding-problem

 

 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 00:24 | 4938458 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

In The White House we have a very poor President...

Oh no he didn't! Dat be rayciss! Obama got me all sorta cargo from his stash! He be like a big chocolate Santa n sheet.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:49 | 4938028 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Seriously. How many times can you cry wolf past 100 times and still get media attention? We're crashing up, not down. Play accordingly.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 06:26 | 4938690 intric8
intric8's picture

The bears will be right, one of these days

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:33 | 4937962 10mm
10mm's picture

No Mark, he is a selected puppet, period.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:48 | 4938244 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Yup, and correlation is not causation.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:37 | 4937978 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I found this tidbit on wiki which i thought was funny: Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity." On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month...

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:50 | 4938036 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

= short vol till u 'ball

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:39 | 4937989 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

the plan is reaching it's end

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:41 | 4937994 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

im not falling for this crap.

 

i love u marc, but the bubble has not begun to burst just yet. 

 

when we see 2-3 days in a row of  -500-600 on the dow, then maybe the bubble will have begun to burst, but todays selling was so controlled.

 

europe is down 2 percent yet we r not even down 1 percent 

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:30 | 4938198 Kprime
Kprime's picture

just the feds jiggin the lure to snag as many idiots as possible.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:44 | 4937996 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Lets rename July 8th "Captain Obvious Day"...

  The futures markets seem to like the China PPI and CPI misses...Now China can keep REPOing the fuck out of their banks without massive *caugh*caugh* inflation worries.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:00 | 4938092 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Thanks, Cap'n Obvious."

"Global financial destruction out of the blue..... I don't need it right now."

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:04 | 4938105 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

yellen speaks tomorrow, I am sure she will calm the waters - why? because no matter what bs illogical crap will come out of her pie hole, the MSM will scream she just saved the markets with her wisdom..bet on it.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:41 | 4937998 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

Oblabla is not allowed to play with the Banksterz.  He's not allowed to dabble in foreign policy.  His handlers do that.  All he is allowed to do is to pig fuck the 50 States.

oops

57

or something like that...

 

sorry.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:30 | 4938193 Kprime
Kprime's picture

57 Hines, 50 shades of gay.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:41 | 4937999 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

A 30% crash and we'd still be 50% overvalued. 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 07:45 | 4938780 spinone
spinone's picture

Well said, brother

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:45 | 4938014 junius
junius's picture

marc faber is a very poor market forecaster.

Onion was right.  Black man given worst job in country.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:07 | 4938122 bonin006
bonin006's picture

If you care about improving the country, it's the worst job. If all you care about is enlarging your bank account, it's a pretty good job.

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:54 | 4938053 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Stocks could crash 40% or 10%, or 0%, or rise 10% or 1,000%, or...

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 21:59 | 4938086 max2205
max2205's picture

Today was bad....traders are second guessing. ....Moar POMO!

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:04 | 4938107 stant
stant's picture

Can't kill a bunch of women and children from england in a small town in Texas to prove you have control these days like the Clinton's.. The news media has no clout like then. And the so called militia they crushed then has evolved. Off the grid. Sucks to live in fear. Wish I was younger. I might see justice someday

Tue, 07/08/2014 - 22:05 | 4938108 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Say what you will, but it's always good to hear a little Marc Faber for the morale.

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