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How To Trade The FOMC Minutes: 8 Trading Patterns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In just over an hour, the Fed will release the minutes form from its latest, June, meeting. Summarizing the sentiment across several sellside desks there seems to be a fair amount of anxiousness ahead of today’s FOMC minutes as some expect the minutes to reveal a more hawkish side to the FOMC than has been presented from Yellen’s recent public commentary. As Deutsche notes, judging by the trading patterns on previous FOMC minutes days, the minutes have been a bridge between the Fed leadership and perhaps a less dovish overall Committee. On the surface, this may appear bearish. But since discounting the future is something the centrally-planned market forgot how to do long ago, below we present some technical patterns of how previous Minutes releases have impacted assorted asset classes. Because with a market controlled by what little is left of HFT algos, charts and patterns is, sadly, all that matters.

So, without further ado, here courtesy of Deutsche Bank's Alan Ruskin, here are Trading patterns surrounding the FOMC Minutes

  • The FOMC minutes have proved important in bridging the gap between what the dovish Fed leadership are thinking, and the evolving view among other FOMC members.
  • 10y yields have gone up on ten consecutive FOMC minutes release days. This strong pattern for higher bond yields on FOMC minutes release days, occurs after FOMC’s Economic projections and press conferences, or absent these events
  • The USD Trade-weighted index versus major currencies, has been up on 11 of the last 13 FOMC minutes release days, suggesting the bearish bias in US longer-dated yields has largely translated to a stronger USD.

A clear evolution to the hawkish side among FOMC ‘rank and file’ is more likely to be evident in the July FOMC meeting minutes, assuming another strong payrolls report next month. As important as these minutes are they are about to get a good deal more interesting in the wake of the next one or two meetings.

After the introduction of the post-FOMC press conference, the FOMC minutes were expected to become a dated relic, generating limited market reactions, but this has been far from the new reality. Instead, the FOMC minutes have proved important in bridging the gap between what the dovish Fed leadership are thinking, and the evolving view among other FOMC members. As one example, it was the FOMC minutes, particularly comments in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), that provided the earliest warnings that a large number of FOMC members were clamoring for an early taper, well ahead of the signal provided by Bernanke last June.

In the same vein, the evolution of moderate FOMC participants turning more hawkish is expected to show up in the minutes partly through the classic FOMC parlance, as more hawkish comments evolve from being attributed to a ‘few’ participants to ‘several’ to ‘most’. The anonymous nature of the comments in the minutes has very likely contributed to the minutes having a greater impact than if the comments had clear attributions.

Table 1 above shows some strong trends on the days when FOMC minutes are released, including:

1. 10y yields have gone up for 10 consecutive FOMC minutes release days. For longer than a year, the back-end seems to always be able to find something in the minutes that it does not like. (See Table 2)

2. Another pattern is a tendency for some partial bond market retracement to the bearish FOMC response in the 5 days after the initial reaction. 10yr yields have gone back down in the 5 trading days after the first day of release, after 7 of the last 8 FOMC minutes. Note that the median change in the 2yr has been zero on FOMC minutes release days and in the 5 days after, a sign that in the past FOMC did not significantly shift very short-term rate expectations. Of course the closer we get to a rate hike, the more sensitive the front-end will become, and the 2yr would be expected to be at least as sensitive as the 10yr into 2015.

3. There is a view that most the bond negative information has been concentrated in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Table 4 focuses solely on the quarterly meetings when the SEPs are released with the minutes and shows that: (i) 10yr yields have gone up on the day of FOMC minutes with SEPs since August 2012, but the median for the yield increase, whether it is the minutes with or without SEPs, does not change. The reason is probably because the FOMC minutes without the SEP are also for FOMC meetings without a press conference, so there is still fresh information in the minutes.

4. In the past, the S&P/US risk appetite response has been quite mixed on the day. In much the same way as good data can be viewed as good for equities (strong economy/profits) or negative (higher rates), equities can take positive FOMC comments on the economy as mixed. What we have seen consistently is that the FOMC minutes has not upset the equities trend, with the S&P up 10 days after the FOMC minutes release in 8 of the last 8 meetings.

5. Lastly, the VIX has tended to ease modestly on the day of FOMC releases, presumably because removal of the FOMC minutes event risk is negative for vol

6. On the currency side, the Fed’s USD Trade-weighted index versus major currencies, has been up on 11 of the last 13 FOMC minutes release days, suggesting the bearish bias in US longer-dated yields has largely been translated in orthodox fashion to a stronger USD.

7. Interestingly, 10 days after the last 5 FOMC minutes release days the USD has been higher suggesting there is some sustenance to any hawkish FOMC minutes in the FX world, even if the bond market follow-through is limited.

8. While we would have expected the yen to most consistently reflect the strong USD TWI reaction on FOMC days given its greater sensitivity to backend US yields, we find that the reaction has tended to be more evenly spread. On the day of the last 8 FOMC minutes releases, the EUR has been weaker 6 times, the JPY 5 times and the AUD also 5 times.

As usual with any statistical; analysis of this sort, we have to ask the question: is this time different? While it would not be any surprise that the FOMC minutes are a significant hawkish event in the next few meetings, the last meeting took place before the latest strong labor market data. It will probably only take one or two additional months of strong employment reports for this to show up in more (hawkish) urgency. The question is can this wait until the September 17th press conference that is a much better forum for action than Jackson Hole, or could a change in tone start dribbling out in the minutes that follow the July 29-30th meeting or even before this at the July 15th congressional testimony? As interesting as these minutes are they are about to get a good deal more interesting following the next meeting.

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Wed, 07/09/2014 - 12:50 | 4940043 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Why does everybody complicate things? Wanna trade the Minutes? Short VIX, Long RUT, NDX, SPY. This is not hard people. Said another way, BTFD!

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 12:56 | 4940070 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

I would add sell gold to your analysis.  Mr. Yellen has our backs /s

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:33 | 4940205 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

I also was looking for "sell Au".

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:01 | 4940089 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Let me make it simpler. "I have a bailout and you do not. So you trade he FOMC minutes."

What a BANKER is trading in are "single basis points" (Basis Trading)...this is true. But while he might not know the direction of rates...he knows QE is winding down so he doesn't have the risk of rates rising...at least for a coue of years.

That sounds like a stock broker's problem to me...because clearly it's NOT the Banker bidding up these assets to the moon.

This is NOT a "healthy inflation." There is not even a pretense that he purpose of all these programs and policies are being used to generate a recovery. Indeed it would appear that "choices" are "conspiring" to create a second 2008.

All I have to say to that is "every fighter agreed that the only guy who was gonna die was that other guy over there." And that...in a single sentence...is the an for recovery.

PERIOD.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:08 | 4940113 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Thanks for simplifying that for us.

Much easier than all those complicated tables and rules and stuff.

But you could actually simplify it even more.

Just buy. BUY!!!!!!

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:19 | 4940157 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

Did anyone notice that all the hype is about Alocoa today.... but....

Alcoa revenue is flat year over year. What does this portend for the rest of the reporting season as far a revenue goes? Does revenue even matter any more with stockbuybacks being so prevalent?  In looking at the transcripts from the earnings call I noticed that number of common stocks available in 2013 for the same period was 1,174,130,313 and as of the 6 months ended June 30th there were 1,069,530,324 available for a difference of 104599993 shares less.  Not sure my math is correct but this appears to be about 8% less.  Am I reading this right?  How might this influence the EPS?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 12:56 | 4940065 SethDealer
SethDealer's picture

Cheaters

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:05 | 4940101 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Winners never cheat and cheaters never win !   Oh, wait a sec...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 12:58 | 4940079 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

The only pattern I have seen by the lame stream regarding the release of Fed Minutes, or the monthly meeting is this:

A day or two before these events, we get "Hawkish Fears" headlines, and the muppets get worried that maybe the Ponzi Munchkin is actually going to advocate for a responsible policy. 

Surprise, surprise, surpise (say it to the voice of Gomer Pyle) 

The fed is revealed to be uber-dovish, and a joyous rally ensues.

Rinse and repeat.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:06 | 4940105 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

So, when is ZH going to launch a "portfolio" of FOMC EFT's?   

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:09 | 4940116 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Exchange Fraded Tunds. he he.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:13 | 4940126 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

This place is a trader's nightmare.

Don't even get me started on the markets.

Slap down the cabbage and buy an annuity for 4%.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:09 | 4940114 djsmps
djsmps's picture

OT but it made me laugh heartily:

Obama Kept In The Dark About Blown Spying Operation In Germany: Report

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/09/obama-german-spy_n_5570503.html

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:15 | 4940135 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Also known as "the glory hole" defense.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:15 | 4940133 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Who gives a shit what this group of fools has to say??  They have not been right 1 time in the past 30 years on this economy and wont be right this time.  They are a joke!

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 14:14 | 4940379 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Those who are winning the game might think differently.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:16 | 4940140 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

spx 60M has a bull flag cooking

 

this pig is heading higher - make me fucking puke!!!!!

 

fuck you yellen

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:32 | 4940188 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Partly sunny with a chance of raining frogs that may be boiled slowly until dead, or fried.  The legs taste like chicken.  A chicken in every pot. 

Employment comes from the Latin 'implicare' which means to be connected with; american's connections with employers seems stable, yet the unemployed seem averse to connections at this time.

Inflation comes from the Latin 'inflatio' which means to blow into, which is transitory, and is not to be confused with fellatio nor bankers.

Rates will remailn low until the unemployed blow into an employer and start eating more chicken.

Steady as she goes - 2 knots astern - rudder at 35 degrees; and please salute Cap'n Yellen as she descends from the crow's nest."

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 13:34 | 4940209 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

sell the USD

buy stawks

short the yen

thank me later....

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 14:28 | 4940426 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

just buy everything.

 

the dollar is on its way to zero therefore all assets measured in the dollar will accelerate towards infinity.  

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!