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Japocalypse Now - Machine Orders Crater 19.5%, Biggest Monthly Drop On Record

Tyler Durden's picture


"Bye, bye, Abe" Just when you thought Japanese macro data couldn't get any worse... it does. Plumbing new depths in the "you can't print your way to prosperity" plan, Japanese Private Sector Machine Orders collapsed 19.5% month-over-month - the largest monthly drop ever (as the dragged-forward pre-tax-hike demand left a hole the size of Fukushima behind it). With Abe's disapproval ratings soaring and inflation surging, hopes for more 'bad news is good news' QQE should be quickly dismissed.


This 19.5% collapse MoM (compared to expectations of a 1.1% rise!!!!) is not made any more easy for Abe to bear than the 14.3% Year-over-year plunge as Abenomics exuberance makes comps now considerably harder....


Think this is normal post-tax hike behavior!! Think again.


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Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:12 | 4941672 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

nikkei flat.....10yr jgb .55%

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:15 | 4941683 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

How many ETFs are being bought by the BOJ right now?

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:42 | 4941696 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

One little piggy, two little piggy, three little piggy moar.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:39 | 4941978 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

The dollar, and Yen, and Renminbi are getting replaced by bitcoin. Get some free at

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:13 | 4942084 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

replaced, possibly.  but slowly.

at this stage i would go with the silver miners.

first majestic silver.  ag.  for starters.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:38 | 4942159 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

It only gets Bitter from here...

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 08:33 | 4942742 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

down 19.5%.... I guess all the US corporations cap ex spending went into share buy backs last month.....

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 04:51 | 4942460 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Thanks for the info, dude. No need to post this stuff here though. Really.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 11:04 | 4943305 A is A
A is A's picture


Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:23 | 4941703 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

One of our Japanese bearings is our No. 2 best selling piece (we carry some 600 different items).  Maybe this decline in machinery orders will free up bearing capacity for us in Peru.  MBS (Japan) also makes our Nos. 19, 21, 24, 27, 32, 34 and 39 pieces (by $ sales volume).  So, even though MBS is the smallest of our four regular suppliers, their pieces are very important to us.

Maybe we can get lower prices and better delivery too...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:25 | 4942108 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

thank you for your always unique and illuminating discourse.  and the inside look at the crucial bearing industry.  i remember the effort in ww2 to destroy germany's ball bearing manufactury; it had albert speer very worried for months before the allies, inexplicably, stopped.

a ball bearing rolled toward me at the winn dixie today (about 3/8ths of an inch diameter) and i pocketed it.  it is now in a tiny, jeweled metal shoe at the center of three pewter hippopotami (jaws out and open) inside an open, red silk-lined, sterling silver heart-shaped box.  

love my bearings.


Thu, 07/10/2014 - 01:46 | 4942233 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It is my opinion that all bearing guys are swell!  So give yourself a pat-on-the back!  52100 steel is a precious metal in our book...

My limited reading of the Allied bombing of the Schweinfurt ball bearing plants is that they did NOT bomb them into complete rubble.  Apparently they would bomb (not very accurately in those days), take note that the factory looked "kaput", and then go find something else to bomb.  The problem was that the Germans would then quickly rebuild the factories and get back into production.  The Allies NEVER PULVERISED the machinery, THAT would have probably done the trick.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 05:23 | 4942475 JoBob
JoBob's picture

Too many people have lost their bearings in today's world.

One corrective solution would be to bombard them with bearings. Lots and lots of big, heavy bearings.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 00:31 | 4942263 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

as for "you can't print your way to prosperity" 

this is not true and has never been true...counterfeiters (perfectly legal in this context), or the historical money clippers...or whatever you'd call them, have always been able to "print" THEIR way to prosperity.

It's all about choosing the winners and losers.  

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:16 | 4941684 booboo
booboo's picture

Abe is going Machine buying next, he can store them at FuckUshameUS

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:12 | 4941673 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

And magic loses again.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:14 | 4941675 SHEEPFUKKER

Once you get to zero orders, it only gets better from there....crisis solved. 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:38 | 4941750 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Good for you, always finding the silver lining. 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:24 | 4942114 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Just buy the customer, then one can have all the sales one desires.

- Keynesian Proverb



Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:21 | 4941915 Wait What
Wait What's picture

the real silver lining?

China's exports only missed estimates by 3% in June. burrish!

China's trade surplus only missed estimates by 10%. burrisher!

it's all looking like rainbows and unicorns from here on out.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:14 | 4941678 remain calm
remain calm's picture

10 year JGB 0.57%. All is good. Please move along no need to worry.Wait for the fourth arrow please.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:16 | 4941687 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The carry trade, right out the door.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:24 | 4941924 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Feet first.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:19 | 4941688 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

All is going according to plan. One world (corporate) order bitches. We must squeeze the slaves to the point where they beg for even greater slavery.

Once the user becomes an addict all questions of choice are moot.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:17 | 4941689 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Korean imports and exports YoY also in the shitter.

      KRW         South Korean Exports (YoY)     -10.60%           -8.10%      
      KRW         South Korean Imports (YoY)     -8.80%            -6.80%     

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:19 | 4941692 Rainman
Rainman's picture

these shittz were predictable ..

  " Government bureau .... where the taxpayer leaves his shirt "

          ...   Anonymous

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:21 | 4941698 hustler etiquette
hustler etiquette's picture

is this another buy signal? Market is a ferris wheel

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:21 | 4941699 yogibear
yogibear's picture

More bad news is bullish. The lever is stuck at bid up stocks.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:27 | 4941711 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

making alot of nothing on those machines

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:40 | 4941757 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Yes but think of the cost savings from reduced power consumption and wages.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:29 | 4941721 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

e-mins don't care, e-minis don't give a fuck.


We have moved passed the era of production and industry into an era of cloud computing; no real machines needed.


way of the future

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:30 | 4941724 SMC
SMC's picture

Party time is over.
Now enjoy your long painful hangover.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:41 | 4941760 TheInfoman
TheInfoman's picture

Somewhere in Texas a man named Kyle Bass has cracked a smile.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:46 | 4941773 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Not so sure. Nikkei is down only .08%. Abe stepped up buying or nobody gives a fuck. Not sure it matters...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:49 | 4941787 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

No one wants nor can afford for it to go it won't. Its all made up anyway, so they make new rules as they go along.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:46 | 4941776 yogy999
yogy999's picture


Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:45 | 4941767 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

I really sympathize with the Jap-on-the-street, so to speak. It appears the average hard working Japanese person is getting a screwjob similar to the average hard working middle class merikan. I have visited there several times in the past and found the people to be fairly friendly, extremely clean and uber-industrious and the streets very safe [except maybe in Okinawa near the USA military base].

I lost my idealism long ago and stopped hoping for [unpossible] world peace. However, I still hope for all those Asians to get along with each other [especially since I love visiting their countries is my selfish reason].

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 01:03 | 4942308 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Yup.  Those mild-mannered, fun-loving Japanese.  I reckon the folks of Nanking might tell another story...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:47 | 4941780 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

They are probably just on vacation, or it rained, or the phone rang, or the dog ate their orders, its just that time of the month, or something. Its always something unrelated to destructive policies directed by economic rubes who will never be held to account. They will simply be remembered as brave geniuses who shepherded their economy through rough times. Western countries are just going to have to take lessons from African nations and simply change their names to erase their debts. FOOLS, "Fellowship Of Obscenely Leveraged Society" gets my vote, because we know,without consequences, we WILL do it again.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 01:05 | 4942316 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

Oldwood I fear that "Western countries are just going to have to take lessons from African nations and simply change their"... entire standard of living & life expectations. Catherine Austin Fitts talks about a "slow burn" perhaps correct or not, but its certainly equivalent to the 30+ yr demise of average black & white standard of living in Zimbabwe now in free fall. As we all know the globalists go after every nation relentlessly year after year one way or another, whether or not debt is theoretically erased.

BTW I once had a peach face parrot that did shred my homework for her nest... my teacher got used to seeing the nibble marks on most my papers, but I still had to turn in the work, sigh.

PS Mugabe's mates are CFR & Rockefeller mates.

Strive Masiyiwa is Zimbabwe’s wealthiest man and one of Africa’s most celebrated businessmen. Masiyiwa, who is worth $600 Million by FORBES estimates, is the founder of Econet Wireless Group, a Pan-African mobile telecoms company with operations across Africa, the U.K and New Zealand. He is also a member of the Advisory boards of the Rockefeller Foundation and the Council on Foreign Relations.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 07:29 | 4942592 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everyone wants to make money and the easiest way to do it is to not see people as fellow human beings, only something to be subjugated, used, consumed or controlled. Big business and big government are the epicenter for this kind of thinking, but anyone can adopt it. Many a murderous criminal sees it as the easiest path to prosperity, and most of us reject that kind of behavior, but we tend to be more tolerant of it as our dependencies gain more reliance upon them. We live in corrupt times, where concentration of power and abandonment of morality is seen as necessarily positive to ensure our continued existence, at least until it is our turn to be consumed.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:49 | 4941789 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Whatever happen to that Typhoon that was about to direct Hit ???

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:51 | 4941798 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Deflation...its a typhoon killer.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 21:52 | 4941801 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

USD/JPY nearing the 101.5 level...

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:24 | 4941904 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

They're not selling to China

Their trade just did a face plant

Of course, futs barely reacted.

Can't show fear. Can't show negativity. Can't show lack of confidence

Living on a thin line


Dear Japan Manufacturer,

I hear printers are hot

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:22 | 4941913 hairball48
hairball48's picture

What's wrong with y'all? It's the weather stupid!


Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:26 | 4941930 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflationary typhoon

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:34 | 4941961 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Just turn the charts upside-down. Problem solved.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:36 | 4941968 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Japan needs to quit feeding the blackswans.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 22:54 | 4942025 pitz
pitz's picture

At least they still got SUKI (tm), The New World Religion (tm) there. 

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:12 | 4942082 bullwinkle
bullwinkle's picture

Really??  What about this?

Oh right, this doesn't fit in to "Japocalypse Now" headline

Thanks to the web you can always find what you want to hear.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:26 | 4942119 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world.

 The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation this will turn into a tsunami of  money fleeing Japan and constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:33 | 4942145 Ariadne
Ariadne's picture

Buy American

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:50 | 4942190 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

Japan is in crazy bad shape right now. The earthquake, tsunami, Fukushima, the typhoon, Abe and his horrible economic policy, demographic shrinkage, and a militant China licking its chops.

There is no way out for them. Japan is simply toast. If they stopped what they are doing now and put all their effort into making babies, renewing the Tokugawa-era isolationism, and building up their military, they should be able to survive as a nation. If not, I don't know what they can do.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 03:49 | 4942438 The Shodge
The Shodge's picture

Won't work, Japan wouldn't have enough oil to support a war machine. So they're toast. Period.

Wed, 07/09/2014 - 23:53 | 4942200 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't worry, the BoJ will fix it. I heard they just wired huge orders for printing machines.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 00:34 | 4942266 christiangustafson
christiangustafson's picture

I won't post a direct link, but there is a particularly foul and rotten Japanese video over at eFukt right now.

So they've got that going for them ... which is nice.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 01:22 | 4942341 Quantum Darwinism
Quantum Darwinism's picture

Could it just be that Japanese government statisticians use less statistical magic than the rest of the world?

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 06:59 | 4942535 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Just the same keynesian calculators as everyone else. 2+2=5

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 01:35 | 4942353 honestann
honestann's picture

Japan is showing the USSA, EU and other western nations where they are headed.  Of course, that won't stop them from following Japan over the cliff like lemmings.  Ka Splat!

PS:  This is proof all Keynesians know their propaganda is nonsense.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 04:55 | 4942462 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Are we still in bad news is good news mode though?

Seems the mass media is ignoring the Japan situation and the equity "investors" probably believe this stuff can be "contained".

Good luck with that.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 04:59 | 4942463 Magooo
Magooo's picture

Message to Kyle Bass:  you will ultimately be right on your short position --- but you will collect a fistfull of air.


When this fucker goes >>>>> EVERYTHING GOES >>>> NOBODY GETS PAID.


This will be 2008 on roids, crack, herion, blow, HGH x 10,000, with no bail outs.



- buy and hold physical gold

- make sure you have enough food and water for 3 months

- if you don't have productive farmland don't worry about it - most people will be dead because they don't have food and water- and the government will not be helping anyone

- if you are in a country that allows firearms - get one - with lots of ammo - the first few days could get hairy - but remember - most people have no food or water - they will be dead within a week or two

- the key is surviving the first few weeks


Thu, 07/10/2014 - 07:02 | 4942538 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Kind of like pedestrian right of way. You can be right, but dead right. For hedge funds like Kyle's, it not just about the money, its about being right. Credibility creates access to lots of money, even if its funny money. Just a big fucking game with lots of collateral consequences.

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 06:12 | 4942505 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Can't they get a bunch of brilliant, black-belt MBAs to cook up a kanban and fix their shit?  Works in America, right?

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 07:45 | 4942640 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

futures down huge, Japan over the edge


great day to be short

Thu, 07/10/2014 - 10:31 | 4943162 RocketmanBob
RocketmanBob's picture

Japocalypse now...Great title :)

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