Treasury Curve Collapses To Flattest Since Feb 2009

Tyler Durden's picture

Steep curve, lots of Net Interest Margin, buy banks, inflation's coming, rates have to rise... no! The US Treasury curve (specifically the spread between the 5Y yield and 30Y yield) has tumbled to its lowest since February 2009 as the long-end dramatically outperforms the Fed-pressured front-end amid concerns that the next cycle will be anything but exuberant and the new normal rates will be notably lower than consensus believes. On a side note, 5 years ago, US bond markets implied a 10Y yield now of 4.6% - almost double what it is; it seems the future (now) is not as rosy as everyone expected then...



Charts: Bloomberg

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Atomizer's picture

Oops, did someone YELL fire?

TideFighter's picture

Old pharts getting phucked. Going long on Alpo.

GetZeeGold's picture



Get Belgium on the phone....

Pool Shark's picture



Want to see a roadmap of where US rates are headed?

See Japan, circa 1990 - present...


ZH Snob's picture

negative rates for bonds are right around the corner.

that's right: the bondholder actually pays for the risk of never seeing his money again.

nasdaq99's picture

the yield curve would probably already be inverted without intervention by the fed.

anybody that thinks they can derive meaning from a manipulated yield curve is an idiot.

ArkansasAngie's picture

Oh Boy.

This is how the Fed will lose control of their monstrosity.


Atomizer's picture

Kicking the can down has no boundaries until the petrodollar recycling scam comes to an end. 

Gas under a dollar. 

disabledvet's picture

Depends on the can. Aluminum? Steel? Plastic?

Bernoulli's picture

It's more like "kicking an old dirty plastic bag down the road"

Cans are for rich people.

SheepDog-One's picture

All it takes, as usual, is one big bankster not getting their skim any longer.

disabledvet's picture

This is the Fed getting control actually.

astoriajoe's picture

well, at least one more to add to the list.

Gringo Viejo's picture

$ preparing to get shoved under 80 again. Last time?

MeMongo's picture


Re member opinions are like assholes! And you my friend are a giant one:-)

Kaiser Sousa's picture

same movements over 3 days ath the same fucking time...
they dont want Silver to move over $21. and double digit change...
they dont want Gold over $1320...

Bam_Man's picture

Nothing to see here. Move along, now.

buzzsaw99's picture

Holly came from Miami, F.L.A.
Hitch-hiked her way across the U.S.A.
Plucked her eyebrows on the way
Shaved her legs and then he was a she
She says, "Hey, babe,
Take a walk on the wild side."
Said, "Hey, honey,
Take a walk on the wild side."...

And the colored girls say,
"Doo do doo do doo do do doo..."

TideFighter's picture

good one Buzz. Never fail to hum that song when it comes on the radidio. 

Gringo Viejo's picture

"'Scuse me while I whip this out."

.....Sheriff Bart

Dr. Engali's picture




There fixed that for you.

NoDebt's picture

Nested recessionary shells within the overall depression.

NotApplicable's picture

The shock-waves of wealth transfer.

Tjeff1's picture

Prepare for inflation in basic materials and finished goods and deflation in assets.

tradewithdave's picture

Many assets are comprised of basic materials plus the value add of finished goods. Oh, okay. This is the "neu neutral" aka "increase resilience"... the way you would break firewood over your knee... in the middle.

Dr. Engali's picture

That sound you hear is the sound of the collective puckering of the banker's assholes.

MidwestJester's picture

Bankers aren't puckering shit. They see a problem, they send over the contractor with a nail gun. Do you see riots in the streets here in the US anywhere? Yeah, me neither... They are still riding high and living fat.

Dr. Engali's picture

A flat yield curve is a banker's nightmare. The only thing worse is an inverted one.

madbraz's picture

Stretch that chart all the way to 1980 and you can see why the spread will go to 1%.

Zirpedge's picture

Us sane investors went long on the MyRA's offered by the investor in chief. I guess you all couldn't forecast the insatiable demand for a safe and secure investment like US treasuries.

fonzannoon's picture

why do you need a Myra to buy treasuries?

NotApplicable's picture

Why do you fail to note his sarcasm?

fonzannoon's picture

because on most of his previous posts I detected a lack of sarcasm. I always saw him as on someone's payroll. Also I hate his face.

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

He looks homeless. Makes sense though, homeless have iphones it was only a matter of time before they downloaded the E*trade app

Zirpedge's picture

"why do you need a Myra to buy treasuries?"

B'cause Obama! As with an IRA they will be offered on pre-tax income..just watch.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Go ahead, raise rates motherfuckers.  Enough jawboning already.

Will. not. happen.

NoWayJose's picture

Yup, earlier this year my little local bank was more than happy to mail out the paperwork to roll over my five year old CD from 5%+ to their new sub-1% rate -- but not quite as happy when I walked in and cashed out instead -- to buy gold.

Bernoulli's picture

"Safe haven", right?

Why would anyone in their right mind give money away to the US government for 30 years and only get a 1.6% return compared to a 5 year bond?

What do they think a US dollar will be worth in 10 years from now? 20 years from now? And why would they think they get their money back at all?

Do they all believe in a Japanese deflation style scenario?!? Newsflash: In case there will be deflation in the US then everything goes belly up anyways.

And in case there will be inflation, then how does a 1.6% return on worthless paper sound?

I don't get it. Something smells fishy here.

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

The average investor has the attention span of a moldy yogurt container. As long as the Fed is there, keep on buying. Full blown tapering is still 5-6 months away, which is about half of an eternity to your typical etrade baby. And thats assuming Mr Chairwoman has the testicular fortitute to go through with it, which she probably doesnt.

Eyeroller's picture

The muppets smell the stench, but they have elected to ride the market crazy train, "safe" in the knowledge that they will jump off just before the crash.

Good luck with that.

Bam_Man's picture

"Term Structure", bitchezzz. 

It's ZIRP 4-ever.

Landrew's picture

Parking cash for temporary in any long end treasury doesn't make sense after tax. It's all mattress money now. Stories of tin can cash, mattress cash I never really believed or thought was very rare. Now I know it's all very, very real, as I park cash in the same way now. I traded the tin cans for a safe at home. All these bubbles hopefully don't blow all at the same time, that kind of pain even when prepared is NOT avoided.