This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Banco Espirito Santo: All The Latest News

Tyler Durden's picture




 

There has been an informational overload this morning, when as we reported previously, one after another bank scrambled to issue reports, some full of typos and clearly unvetted by compliance, calming the market and desperate to see all important confidence return to the peripheral market. Most of these notes have been nothing short of outright propaganda and disinformation, or a confirmation the analysts had zero idea what they were doing (case in point Goldman which had the stock at a Buy rating until this morning, even as the stock was virtually wiped out in recent weeks).

Some, surprisingly, have done the work. Below we provide some of the less then insightful reports, as conveniently summarized by Bloomberg, and we conclude with perhaps the best piece so far - one written by Bank of America's Richard Thomas who alone among the sell-side penguin circus, was as close as he could be, to predicting this week's outcome.

First, the penguins, via Bloomberg, all of which are prayingf that the powers that be will simply step in and bail out the bank in case they are, as usual, wrong:

SocGen

  • BES is “money-good” at senior and LT2 level, but confidence on T2 has to be lower than senior
  • Expect the authorities to concentrate hard on avoiding the failure of a systemic bank
  • Base case, with 70% probability, is BES writes down EU1.2b worth of loans and intra-group exposures, leading to a fully loaded CET1 dropping to 8.75% from 10.5%; manageable
  • Investors who are long BES and concurring with our base case shouldn’t sell [ZH: and hence, those who don't concur, should sell]
  • Investors seeking a buying opportunity should take a closer look; don’t expect a quick snap back

Henderson

  • Expect Portuguese authorities to intervene and protect senior BES bondholders if bank’s situation becomes systemic
  • Situation at Banco Espirito Santo isn’t comparable with SNS in the Netherlands, or Austria’s Hypo Alpe

Cairn Capital

  • Senior BES credit spreads in the 500bps-700bps area start to look interesting for long risk opportunities, based on known information
  • Senior bonds remain protected by most regulators in Europe; losses at BES unlikely to exceed the layer of the capital structure sitting below senior bonds

Merrion

  • Given BES’ systemic importance, believe that the bank will be kept as a going concern
  • Fate of subordinated bonds likely to be determined by the magnitude of its parent losses and whether the Portuguese govt and/or the ESM are required to rescue the institution

BNP

  • Estimates there’s a 70% chance of an ESFG orderly resolution and 20% for a forced liquidation; in both cases the subordinated debt would be completely  written off
  • 10% chance of a “going concern” scenario with intervention of cash-rich investors

RBS

  • Weakened family control and a clearer separation between the BES and the group is positive for BES; should help reduce contagion from the group’s problem
  • Trading desk strategists remain negative on BES

Barclays

  • ESI and Rioforte have been funding themselves with large placements of CP, which they are looking increasingly unlikely to be able to repay
  • With Portugal under a 3-yr troika program until two months ago, investors wonder why this wasn’t detected and dealt with earlier; this event casts some doubt about other latent problems in the system
  • Portuguese banks are relatively well positioned for AQR
  • Sees limited systemic implications for the Portuguese sovereign and the rest of the periphery

SEB

  • More negative news on European banks likely in the coming mos as the ECB presents the results of its comprehensive assessment in Oct.
  • Portugal is wake-up call for mkts as asset pricing and positioning are vulnerable to negative shocks, especially in fundamentally weak countries
  • Developments in Portugal shouldn’t cause L-T risk aversion; country may apply for a similar support program that Spain had for its banking sector

Finally, here is Bank of America with a piece that actually deserves a read:

Higher group exposure. Still UW30%

 

Some more information on group exposure

 

Our negative view on BES bonds has always been predicated on the information asymmetries relating to exposure to the Espirito Santo Group. The bank has now disclosed its direct credit exposure to the Group (see Table 1). The total credit exposure is €1.2bn which represents a substantial risk to a bank with core Tier 1 capital of about €7bn (we estimate following the recent capital increase) or 17% of core capital. New management has committed to not increase this exposure. The bank highlights that it has a buffer of €2.1bn above an 8% minimum common equity Tier 1 ratio. In our view, the exposure to the Group is likely to result in significant additional losses for a bank that was already on average providing for an annualized 2.2% of its €47bn loan book each quarter and already has a loan book impaired at a rate of 20.6%.

 

Indirect exposure still a potential contingency

 

Retail clients of the BES Group also own €853m of ES Group debt. ESFG has provided a guarantee of €700m but we continue to expect this amount will substantially prove to be a contingent liability for the bank. Institutional clients hold about €2bn in Group paper which also may prove to be a contingency for the bank, we believe, irrespective of these investors’ qualified status. See Table 2.

 

What’s not there

 

No details are given on BES’s exposure to its Angolan subsidiary, BESA. The Portuguese press (Negocios) had reported on Thursday morning that Angola was considering creating a development bank by combining BESA with two other banks. This provides an uncertain backdrop for the Group’s investment in BESA and for any investment or credit lines that the bank may have made available to BESA, on which concrete details appear to be lacking. We also have no details of any loans made to third parties then on-lent to the Group, the implications potentially being that there aren’t any. This may only be clarified when we finally see the losses from the ES Group restructuring plan apportioned and it comes through in higher impairments at the bank.

 

No worst outcomes now but no need to rush to buy

 

Though BES’s direct exposure to the ES Group is substantially more than previous disclosures, we are clearly not moving at this point towards the worst outcomes for senior and subordinated bondholders for BES which may be seen as a relief (though the more lurid scenarios were never our base case). However, in spite of the recent capital increase, recent events have underlined that capital remains weak at BES, in our view. For example, net of reserves, impairments are still equivalent to post-rights equity even before we factor in a cushion for dealing with the direct and indirect exposures to the stressed ES Group. All of which suggests a potentially harsh outcome from the AQR, we think. Bonds have recovered somewhat this morning but we maintain our Underweight-30% rating.

And now, feel free to BTFD on hopes the ECB will bail out the bank, or at least the BIS will provide a supporting bid in BES stock for at least the next few hours, when the Basel bank's trading desk attention is once again redirected to smashing gold at regular intervals.

Source: Bloomberg, BofA

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:51 | 4946714 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

like buying the ticket from a first class passenger on titanic just before he stepped in the last lifeboat...

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:16 | 4946761 Manthong
Manthong's picture

OK, so they have been dipping their toe in the bail-in water.

Do we get to see a whole foot in on this one?

Or do they still have a few too many goose bumps?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:51 | 4946716 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Yeah but my local JimCramer wannabe said that it doesn't matter...it's just a bank far away. I will continue to BTFATH. Party on....

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:53 | 4946720 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

rules of modern society:

1) the bankers they may rob you

2) the bankers they may grape you

3) the bankers may take your last piece of meat

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:20 | 4946773 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I haven't been graped in so long, I don't remember when.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:27 | 4946800 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Go to the nearest airport and stand in the screening line. Gropes are free.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 10:01 | 4946889 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

— Until you're Concord, you can't be graped —

 

 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 11:16 | 4947129 PT
PT's picture

:

"You mean you were raped."
"No, I was graped!  - There was a whole bunch of them."

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:26 | 4946798 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

You can dissect grape to

4) the bankers they may rape you

5) the bankers they may grope you

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:57 | 4946731 youngman
youngman's picture

TPTB are scrambling right now to get their monies safe before they tell you to do the same...so they say be calm as they panic..then when they are done and safe..they will tell you to do the same...the me first attitude

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:52 | 4946864 BandGap
BandGap's picture

They know there are not enough life boats.

Who will blink first? If not today than next week. Over the weekend there will be many, many sessions. Me? I'm buying popcorn and drinking beer. My summer of recovery.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:58 | 4946734 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

#dontshortsideabankster

/sarc 

 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 08:59 | 4946735 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

 Most of these notes have been nothing short of outright propaganda and disinformation, or a confirmation the analysts had zero idea what they were doing (case in point Goldman which had the stock at a Buy rating until this morning, even as the stock was virtually wiped out in recent weeks).

 

Yes, Goldman Sachs is a shithole of liars and theifs and need to be dismantled with Blankfien in prison for the damage he has done to America! 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:05 | 4946741 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

That's what it must have been like on the Titanic.

"Nothing happened! The situation is under control! Band, please keep playing, go back to your tables everybody and enjoy the evening! Nothing to worry about!"

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 10:16 | 4946941 junction
junction's picture

So far, no one has included the part about Titanic captain Draghi asking for the ship's deck chairs to be rearranged, they have been sliding to the side.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 10:08 | 4946742 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The translation should be changed from Holy Spirit Bank to Black Holey Bank.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:06 | 4946743 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

They'll get bailed out. The only question is if the equity holders get wiped out in the process.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:09 | 4946750 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Loan book impairment of 21% and growing ? ..looks like this PIG is a candidate to be the first broken link in a daisy chain of PIGS failures. Mario better get busy.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:12 | 4946754 Australian Economist
Australian Economist's picture

Is this it? The one we've been waiting for? or is it just another false dawn?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:23 | 4946779 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's a solitary roach.  No others like it.  They swear.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:25 | 4946790 tvdog
tvdog's picture

"Expect Portuguese authorities to intervene and protect senior BES bondholders if bank’s situation becomes systemic"

Kind of sounds familiar. Bondholders bailed out, depositors bailed in - where did I hear that before?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:29 | 4946806 SanfordandSon
SanfordandSon's picture

Goldman Sucks, so does Jim Kramer

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:48 | 4946850 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Call a meeting you corrupt fuckers, declare all CDS null and void.  Jubilee for you, fuck the depositors and the taxpayers...

 

/s

 

Wait for it, it's coming.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 09:57 | 4946875 BandGap
BandGap's picture

No ned for the src tag.

The sad thing is the bulk of of the masses don't know they are getting raped.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 10:05 | 4946898 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Meanwhile: CNBC still runs their headline "Europe stable after selloff; Portugal shares up 2%"

EUROPE STABLE, EUROPE STABLE!!!!! IT REALLY IS!!! BUY THE DIP, EXCELLENT BUYING OPPORTUNITY!

Go pleasantly long! Don't be CYNICAL!

What a joke.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 10:32 | 4946990 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

How do you say 'noise' in Portuguese?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 11:07 | 4947097 IANAE
IANAE's picture

courtesy of internet...

 

Noise = ruido

WTF = que porra

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 13:54 | 4947698 crazybob369
crazybob369's picture

MHTF = Merda Hits The Fan

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 11:41 | 4947210 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

This is the ECB's Lehman Bros. moment.

 

Now comes the unraveling of the Credit Default Swap Derivatives.

 

Nine Days to July 20....Hmmm...Auntie Christine knew this all along.

 

It is IMF time.

 

Bank Holiday, Monday July 21?

 

Can you spell B..A...N...K.... R...U...N???

 

Well...Are you in?  Im F'd

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 12:25 | 4947352 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Typos of the banks appear to be contagious, Tyler

 

"Below we provide some of the less then insightful reports......."

It show read presumably "Below we provide some of the less than insightful reports.............."

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 12:32 | 4947365 hibou-Owl
hibou-Owl's picture

bloomberg says they have 2.1 B above regulatory requirements and they raised 1.04 B in capital. That was last month, now they missed payments.

Something stinks bad!!! Cookie jar is Empty!!!

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 12:43 | 4947391 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Go balls long on this dogshit. Draghi will spray liquidity all over like Peter North in a sorority house. Prepare for a weekend QE announcement

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!