The VIX Seasonal Summer Slumber Is Over: It's All Uphill From Here

Tyler Durden's picture

When even the Fed is lamenting the VIX's summer doldrums, having recently printing at all time lows on an unadjusted basis, one knows that Kevin Henry's VIX selling skills will soon be obsolete. In fact he may even have to learn how to, gasp, buy VIX (with Citadel's help of course). But maybe he won't have to As FBN's JC O'Hara shows, one of the factors contributing to the record low VIX may not just be the global central banks' attempts at vol supression: it may be the seasons themselves.

As the chart below shows, every year vol tends to hit its lowest level, at least based purely on annual trading patterns, just around independence day. After that it goes in a straight line higher, until it hits its annual peak in the first half of October before it once again tumbles just in time for Christmas.

However, in a world in which the Fed has turned every pattern around on its head, does this even matter? Check back in three months to find out if, in yet another case of central-planning wreaking havoc with technicals, this time too is different.

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I Write Code's picture

Janet complained to Janet about the low VIX that Janet caused so Janet did something about it.

max2205's picture

GPRO -21% from 52 wk high....add another to the bear side

bonin006's picture

From Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily yesterday, about an interview with Faber, Schiff and Gartman:

"and with the exception of what Dennis Gartman has to say, it's probably worth your time."

kaa1016's picture

Gartman is going to go pleasantly bearish the VIX in strictly Euro terms hedged with a Yen short in dollar terms. I'm telling you, I really think he's just fucking with people when he comes out and says this shit. Actually, he's dead serious, and people actually pay him for this. 

slaughterer's picture

Friday afternoon rampola today. 

AccreditedEYE's picture

Sell that Vol till ya Ball bitchez! Only game in town when the whole world is bent on "fixing" markets. (Then go buy some gold with the fat stacks)

CaptainSpaulding's picture

It's all good. Bartender, Another rye and soda on the rocks.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

another day...
another obvious attempt to keep the phony paper price of Silver contained below $21.50...
u will notice that every time it hit $21.45 large sell orders enter to repel the continued move upward...
plain as fucking day...great theater.

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

Kaiser Sousa's picture

nah...
that's crazy talk man..

Traderone's picture

Dude, i'm an Irish catholic and you are one paranoid fucked up retard. If you are looking for someone to blame for your lousy life then look in the mirror not at other people. Idiot.

Hugh G Rection's picture

Congratulations on being Catholic. I'm actually pretty happy with my life, I just feel compelled to speak out against Zionist lunacy. I guess you are ok with Israel blowing the shit out Palestinian kids? 

Can you debunk that list, or is calling me a nazi/anti-Semite/leftist/rightest/Arab loving poo poo head all you will be able to come up with?

SheepDog-One's picture

Catholics, sure glad I got out if that crazy cult at a relatively early age.

headhunt's picture

That 'crazy cult' has more hands on the levers of power than any other people in the world.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, scary how those who carried out the Inquisitions and Crusades are still even around today.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

imagine that...
an irish catholic who feels compelled to defend the Zionist entity...
the world is truly mad.

Traderone's picture

What are you trying to prove by publishing a list of successful people who happen to be Jewish? what is your point? Any whack job can publish a list of people who have the same religion and attach a conspiracy theory to it.

daveO's picture

He's simply showing us a (partial)list of our owners.  

daveO's picture

Is that Peter Shiff in the center of the photos? His dad was in prison, for income taxes, the last I heard. Then, there's the fact that Dimon's name was left out of the finance list. No list is complete w/o him! 

Hugh G Rection's picture

Can't believe I forgot Jamie! Added.

headhunt's picture

It is always the same meme, blame the smart and successful for their failings and shitty life.

Jealousy is the most destructive force on the planet - next to unions (oh wait, jealousy is what unions are based on)

daveO's picture

6 Supreme Court justices are Catholic. That makes me just as paranoid of them as the other 3(guess Who). Yet, the US is 3/4th's Protestant. Back to work debt slaves!!!

Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

 

if morale<normal

then sell VIX

else

if morale>normal

then buy VIX

else

print that money

end

 

headhunt's picture

if morale<normal

then sell VIX

else

if morale>normal

then buy VIX

else

print that money

go to 'if morale<normal'    -----> forgot a line

end

astoriajoe's picture

Let the good times roll.

Wait, what?

Bryan's picture

What about the horrible weather we are suffering through now, though?  All warm and sunny and such.  That's gotta affect the VIX and the whole dang market!

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey they've always got next winters snowstorm to blame everything on.

Eyeroller's picture

Or a hurricane, but doggonit, that pesky Arthur didn't comply.

Ness.'s picture

This time it's different.

Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Nice vix hammer this afternoon for the rampola to the finish. Although you wonder if they shot their wad too early in the afternoon.

SheepDog-One's picture

There goes all equities back to July highs, can't allow any red for more than 1 session ever again apparently.

SheepDog-One's picture

So VIX is low now, will go higher for a bit, but back to single digits a few weeks later.
OK thanx, got it.

toros's picture

Can someone turn the stock market on? I want to get a quote. Thx.

Eyeroller's picture

Is this how the VIX will respond to the fed's "controlled crash"?