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The VIX Seasonal Summer Slumber Is Over: It's All Uphill From Here

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When even the Fed is lamenting the VIX's summer doldrums, having recently printing at all time lows on an unadjusted basis, one knows that Kevin Henry's VIX selling skills will soon be obsolete. In fact he may even have to learn how to, gasp, buy VIX (with Citadel's help of course). But maybe he won't have to As FBN's JC O'Hara shows, one of the factors contributing to the record low VIX may not just be the global central banks' attempts at vol supression: it may be the seasons themselves.

As the chart below shows, every year vol tends to hit its lowest level, at least based purely on annual trading patterns, just around independence day. After that it goes in a straight line higher, until it hits its annual peak in the first half of October before it once again tumbles just in time for Christmas.

However, in a world in which the Fed has turned every pattern around on its head, does this even matter? Check back in three months to find out if, in yet another case of central-planning wreaking havoc with technicals, this time too is different.

 

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Fri, 07/11/2014 - 13:59 | 4947710 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Janet complained to Janet about the low VIX that Janet caused so Janet did something about it.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 13:59 | 4947717 PAPA ROACH
PAPA ROACH's picture

Gartman go bearish VIX?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:00 | 4947721 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Good God, I hope not!

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:29 | 4947819 max2205
max2205's picture

GPRO -21% from 52 wk high....add another to the bear side

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:28 | 4947814 bonin006
bonin006's picture

From Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily yesterday, about an interview with Faber, Schiff and Gartman:

"and with the exception of what Dennis Gartman has to say, it's probably worth your time."

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:34 | 4947839 kaa1016
kaa1016's picture

Gartman is going to go pleasantly bearish the VIX in strictly Euro terms hedged with a Yen short in dollar terms. I'm telling you, I really think he's just fucking with people when he comes out and says this shit. Actually, he's dead serious, and people actually pay him for this. 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:06 | 4947742 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Friday afternoon rampola today. 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:29 | 4947823 BandGap
BandGap's picture

VIX-vapo-rub.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:00 | 4947720 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Sell that Vol till ya Ball bitchez! Only game in town when the whole world is bent on "fixing" markets. (Then go buy some gold with the fat stacks)

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:02 | 4947724 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:01 | 4947725 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

It's all good. Bartender, Another rye and soda on the rocks.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:06 | 4947729 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

another day...
another obvious attempt to keep the phony paper price of Silver contained below $21.50...
u will notice that every time it hit $21.45 large sell orders enter to repel the continued move upward...
plain as fucking day...great theater.

http://www.pmbull.com/silver-price/

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:12 | 4947764 Hugh G Rection
Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:14 | 4947774 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

nah...
that's crazy talk man..

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:27 | 4947807 Traderone
Traderone's picture

Dude, i'm an Irish catholic and you are one paranoid fucked up retard. If you are looking for someone to blame for your lousy life then look in the mirror not at other people. Idiot.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:40 | 4947857 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Congratulations on being Catholic. I'm actually pretty happy with my life, I just feel compelled to speak out against Zionist lunacy. I guess you are ok with Israel blowing the shit out Palestinian kids? 

Can you debunk that list, or is calling me a nazi/anti-Semite/leftist/rightest/Arab loving poo poo head all you will be able to come up with?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:49 | 4947886 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Catholics, sure glad I got out if that crazy cult at a relatively early age.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:02 | 4947935 headhunt
headhunt's picture

That 'crazy cult' has more hands on the levers of power than any other people in the world.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:59 | 4948121 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea, scary how those who carried out the Inquisitions and Crusades are still even around today.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:03 | 4947940 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

imagine that...
an irish catholic who feels compelled to defend the Zionist entity...
the world is truly mad.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:19 | 4947979 Traderone
Traderone's picture

What are you trying to prove by publishing a list of successful people who happen to be Jewish? what is your point? Any whack job can publish a list of people who have the same religion and attach a conspiracy theory to it.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:56 | 4948115 daveO
daveO's picture

He's simply showing us a (partial)list of our owners.  

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:54 | 4948105 daveO
daveO's picture

Is that Peter Shiff in the center of the photos? His dad was in prison, for income taxes, the last I heard. Then, there's the fact that Dimon's name was left out of the finance list. No list is complete w/o him! 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 16:03 | 4948148 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Can't believe I forgot Jamie! Added.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:58 | 4947920 headhunt
headhunt's picture

It is always the same meme, blame the smart and successful for their failings and shitty life.

Jealousy is the most destructive force on the planet - next to unions (oh wait, jealousy is what unions are based on)

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 15:59 | 4948122 daveO
daveO's picture

6 Supreme Court justices are Catholic. That makes me just as paranoid of them as the other 3(guess Who). Yet, the US is 3/4th's Protestant. Back to work debt slaves!!!

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:06 | 4947744 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

 

if morale<normal

then sell VIX

else

if morale>normal

then buy VIX

else

print that money

end

 

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:45 | 4947874 headhunt
headhunt's picture

if morale<normal

then sell VIX

else

if morale>normal

then buy VIX

else

print that money

go to 'if morale<normal'    -----> forgot a line

end

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:09 | 4947756 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Let the good times roll.

Wait, what?

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:20 | 4947793 Bryan
Bryan's picture

What about the horrible weather we are suffering through now, though?  All warm and sunny and such.  That's gotta affect the VIX and the whole dang market!

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:26 | 4947803 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey they've always got next winters snowstorm to blame everything on.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 17:43 | 4948447 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Or a hurricane, but doggonit, that pesky Arthur didn't comply.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:30 | 4947825 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

This time it's different.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:30 | 4947827 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Nice vix hammer this afternoon for the rampola to the finish. Although you wonder if they shot their wad too early in the afternoon.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:47 | 4947881 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There goes all equities back to July highs, can't allow any red for more than 1 session ever again apparently.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:51 | 4947896 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So VIX is low now, will go higher for a bit, but back to single digits a few weeks later.
OK thanx, got it.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 14:52 | 4947898 toros
toros's picture

Can someone turn the stock market on? I want to get a quote. Thx.

Fri, 07/11/2014 - 17:46 | 4948455 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Is this how the VIX will respond to the fed's "controlled crash"?

 

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