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What Is Power Consumption Telling Us About The US Economy?
Submitted by Erico Tavares Of Sinclair & Co.
We track US power consumption on a weekly basis as reported by Barron’s, as we believe this information provides insightful – albeit sometimes "noisy" and seasonally unadjusted – clues about the performance of the economy over time.
The expectation is that a more robust economic environment requires more power, although factors like colder winters and warmer summers relative to the norm can greatly skew the analysis. With that in mind, let’s have a look at the weekly historical performance of this indicator going back to 1995 (in MM kWhs):
Many peaks and bottoms can be observed as power demand changes seasonally over the year. We have used polynomial smoothing to extract a trend line (in black).
Some quick observations:
- US power consumption peaked in 2006 (red line), approximately in line with the peak in the US housing market, and the trend line has flatlined since.
- By definition a peak in consumption means that any new capacity additions, for instance to accommodate incremental renewable energy production, will need to be made at the expense of existing production capacity, which in turn will affect plant efficiencies and so forth. That being said, there is a considerable amount of coal-fired capacity, possibly even nuclear, that will be coming off-line in the coming years mainly due to environmental regulations, so it will be interesting to see how all of this will play out in the US power markets.
- The last intra-cycle power consumption peak was recorded in 2011, broadly in line with the recent global peak in commodity prices. While most commodity price analysis commentary focuses on China as the “marginal” buyer, it seems the US still plays an important role not only as a supplier but also as a consumer.
Consumption peaks normally come in late July/early August, so it is still a bit early to gauge how 2014 is shaping up. However, in the grand scheme of things and despite the limitations of this indicator, historical kilowatt consumption suggests that the US economy at best continues to muddle along, despite an unprecedented amount of policy stimulus – some of which may even be curtailed before the end of the year.
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No income power, welcome to Free-Market capitalism.
Free market capitalism? Never heard of it. Hasn't existed in, well....ever.
Next.
It's telling us short solar and wind power.
I will say there have been same major strides forward in the electrical efficiency of consumer goods. Computers, TVs, pool pumps, LED lights ... pretty much everything has seen lower power demands from the same items.
Yes, one should properly say that.
But there is also population gain.
"What Is Power Consumption Telling Us About The US Economy?"
It's telling us the US population didn't really increase from 301M in 2007 to 317M today and the Kenyan has in fact increased industrial output, using fairy dust as energy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States
What do I win?
Bad news is, you "win" a life sentence as a tax slave.
Good news is: EVERYONE'S A WINNER!
It's because of all the energy efficient electric environmentally friendly green footprint cars we're driving.
So we gotta raise your taxes, assholes.
Then of course we have the next SUB-PRIME DIASTER in the making:
Fossil Fuel Industry Is The Next Subprime Dangerhttp://srsroccoreport.com/fossil-industry-is-the-next-subprime-danger/fossil-industry-is-the-next-subprime-danger/
Steve,
Isn't it important to note that wherever you have .gov intervention there will be anamolous output or behaviour?
Say in mining, energy, banking and say even things like ebt, snap and any other sectors.
/sarc
DaddyO
Either way, we are still fucked...
pfft, the only people that are fucked are the shorts.
e-minis-----> The Moon.
I liked those old zippy the pinhead comics from my stoner days.
+1 for your avatar and the comment. I didnt think of that, but I'll tell you what, here in Texas they're making up for any loss in gas tax by building miles and miles of toll roads and so many refugees from other states (and latin flavored countries) flooding in, you have to use the fuckers to get home in time for bed. I do my best to stay off those fuckers but it takes me and hour to drive a 20 mile straight line to and from work.
Get a Jetpack
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=mdQK_odgedk
It's telling us the US population didn't really increase from 301M in 2007 to 317M today and the Kenyan has in fact increased industrial output, using fairy dust as energy.
mjcOH1, I think the immigration numbers are exaggerated a whole lot. According to Gallup only 20% of our population identifies themselves as "liberal" while we have Obammy as POTUS. Mmmm, election fraud?
Vampyroteuthis ...
C'mon vamp, liberals are more than 20% of the population. Depend in how you conduct your survey (question) it wouldn’t surprise me if it was closer to 70%.
Anyway, Americans are worried, rightly so, about their future, not election fraud.
RIGHT, i am not worried a bit about the Progs red/blue that are fucking me every day... Along of course with their media enablers no.... I am just generically worried, like an idiot, like you..
Paid off electoral college
It's also telling us that economic conditions that lead to energy consumption prior to 2006 were markedly different from those since then. And I don't think it is because we suddenly discovered how to make far more efficient appliances in 2007.
If this is an EKG for the US economy, the patient is in trouble.
Maybe, but the problem is, the average household has more and more of these power consuming goods. Plus, parasitical loads have increased dramatically. Many modern appliances draw small amounts of power even when they are off. 15 years ago, this wasn't the case.
True, and for example I have many more electrical devices now that stay plugged in using mW (example, cell phone charger etc). But also like stated before there are key items now that use way less power. For example, I used to run a single speed pool pump which ran at 3400rpm all the time for 5.5hrs it pulled down about 2200-2300W. I now run a multi-speed pump and it normally runs at 1500rpm and only pulls down 190-200W but runs for 8hrs. Pretty easy to do that math on that one. Also, most of my lights in house now are LED. Reason why my power bill is now averaging about $100 less a month.
Very true, its annoying actually. One has to unplug the stuff to stop it from consuming some power even if just an pile of LEDs
I know, it's crazy. Even my refrigerator stays on even after I've closed the door.
These modern gadgets befuddle me.
How can you tell it's still on? Is the light on?
motor sound behind.
Mug shot of me on the nsa site getting ice out of the refer.
Yep.
Ive been think for a while now about fitting a sub panel next to my main panel and moving most loads like the bedrooms, bathrooms, and living area on that and fit a contactor activated by time clock to drop these vampire loads while away or asleep. Only the freezer needs to be running 24/7.
Efficiencies are often more then offset by consumers upgrading to larger units. Yes, the new unit is more efficient, but overall consumption is greater because of the size increase.
The big news here is not the leveling in power usage itself, it's that it indicates a leveling in actual economic activity based upon that energy.
The cessation of economic growth, by itself, might not catastrophic but for our debt-based fiat currency system - in that context, it is catastrophic. No growth implies deflation and the lack of funds to service the levels of debt necessary to support the current levels of USD issuance.
Noisy data or not - this info is just another confirmation of what many of us have thought for a long time regarding energy supply stagnation (ie oil), prices, and the collapse of the housing market in 2007/8.
Nice data.
yep. we have been in negative real growth since 2005. using the proper deflator, really just calculating inflation the way it was done in the 1980s, we have had negative real growth since around the 3rd quarter or 2005, which means we have been in a depression since mid 2007.
Yes we have...
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
Good thing Barry ran a couple of trillion dollar deficits to keep the old shitmobile going or we would have been in real trouble...
http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6129/5981605081_595bef4c30_b.jpg
As I noted here before, 130,000 multi family units were built last year with electric heat. Each one of those will need 3000 watts minimum on a cold morning. That's 400 MW right there.
As I noted here before, 130,000 multi family units were built last year with electric heat. Each one of those will need 3000 watts minimum on a cold morning. That's 400 MW right there.
I suppose we should all go long...johns?
flamethrowers...
But a lot of those items don't last very long - disposable. Go back 50 years and gadgets were expected to last. How does this affect power consumption? Having to constantly make replacements for disposed of items costs power. Efficiency+Disposable isn't getting us there.
You've got a problem called "World War II" and recycling.
Water and energy consumption in California is truly amazing (meaning efficient) relative to any other State in the Union.
That's not showing what can be done in fact what is being done. I think a better measure of economic strength (weakness really) is miles driven as that is truly an energy intensive enterprise.
This has completely collapsed (2008) inside the USA even though energy production has soared (and coal prices have collapsed as well...both here and in China I might add.)
This is not a question of "esoterica" folks but of the ironclad math of thermal efficiency. Thermal coal is by far the most efficient...we just waste it all by producing electricity with it.
That curve says to me Americans are on to the game of this "grand waste" and are cutting back on their use of both peaking power and grid power in general. "You don't need a lot of battery to power your house." A single Tesla is more than enough. If the average American lives 20 miles from a Supercharger station the economics of a Model S become quite compelling IF I can use it to not just power the car but other devices in the home as well.
Lead acid batteries already offer an enormous amount of storage as is. You can even print your own solar panels now.
Very interesting story about Exxon investing in a refinery in Antwerp, Belgium. That says to me Russian natural gas extortion isn't working very well.
Ive always had it in my mind that to make these hybrid vehicles even more practical and attractive would be to have that option of running the engine for transport mainly and use the electrics for plugging into your house inverter to cook dinner, run the AC and watch tv with.
The efficiency in most cases is an illusion. The gains are paltry at best. Electronic devices in almost all cases draw power 24/7, even when "off". In fact they can draw as much power while "off" as they do for the time that they are in use. LED lighting is another misdirection. When you see a figure such as '100 lumens per watt' efficiency, this does not factor in the losses due to the circuit components needed to drive the LED, which are appreciable. Well, you say, at least they don't produce a lot of heat. Yes the LED itself doesn't produce heat, but try touching the back of the circuit board driving the LED. When all said and done, that 100 lumens/watt is really 60 lumens/watt. I would argue that a well-insulated oven is more efficient than an LED. Think about that for while.
Most efficiency gains, when you look at the whole picture, are greatly muted by other factors. And all LEDs are not the same. Their lifespan depends critically on the junction temperature during operation, and poor manufacturing (read China) results in LED life-spans only fractions of what is advertised. Compact-fluorescent lighting is another 'efficiency' scam promoted here in Canada by our illustrious green-warrior David Suzuki, who sees no irony in the fact that he is promoting the use of a lighting technology that is orders of magnitude more toxic to the environment. Also, CFLs take time to come up to their most efficient operating temperature after being switched on (~20 mins). If you are just switching lights off and on in rooms all day, there are absolutely no gains in energy savings. If one of those bulbs breaks in your home you must consider it a hazardous waste disposal scenario, unless you consider mercury vapors nutritious and healthy.How efficient is their disposal in terms of energy use as opposed to disposing of a broken incandescent.
How efficient is the manufacturing process of all these new technologies, as opposed to their operating efficiencies? Gains in operating efficiency often mean losses in manufacturing efficiency and vice versa. A CFL requires more components and steps to manufacturer than a simple incandescent light bulb. Every extra component and process step adds to the inefficiency of the overall product. Wouldn't you agree? Folks its a zero-sum game. It's more hype and agenda, than of any real benefit in energy, once you look at the actual numbers. I'm not saying that this is true in absolutely every case, but in general, technological gains do not necessarily equate to significant efficiency gains when the system is analyzed as a whole from an energy perspective. Cheers.
Solar power is not hype. Use it to light your walkways and go from there. "Still a lot of room for improvement" but the product is there.
Once you have self driving vehicles (Elon Musk says he'll have it next model year) then that's the end for needing public transportation.
PERIOD.
No more buses, taxis, subways...you name it. You might not even need to have a person in the car...your purchases will come to you.
Already Jeff Bezos is pushing for "drone legality" in order to air mail any and all packages 5 pounds or less "autonomously." Since 90% of their order book is five pounds or less (and yes Amazon is already doing this in Canada where it is legal) talk about convenience.
Ask yourself this: how much physical mail do you get in a day? For me maybe a single letter. "And it can wait."
That would save 60 billion dollars right there.
Internet education? That would save hundreds of billions.
Disable says: "Internet education? That would save hundreds of billions.”
Agree, because I heard student loans are over $1trillion. But, from whom, would these billions of dollars saved, come from?
Same place that savings from farm equipment came from; somewhere in the economy, at the expense of some jobs, but to the vast benefit of everyone else. No problem if people are willing to retrain for another career (pretty much have to every decade now anyway).
Commercial effeciency increases are staggering and the sheer number of business that have upgraded since 2000 - and increased since tax benefits enhanced - can account for a lot of this.
Further, if you want proof, just look at the amount of energy needed to power a single LED vs traditional bulb. Commercial business have adopted this as major policy and benefited.
Only reason to deny this is for political purposes, and anybody not aware of this only looks for reasons to justify their political beliefs.
US leads the world in electrical engineering research.
your drone amazon delivery is fun & nice on the paper.. as a full mind french, i got a couple of questions for the drone delivery...
1) you dont have garden to land the bot, you are in the middle of a 15 stage building, bet the drone do not cross windows... no acces to roofs, you go down & take delivery close people on the sidewalk ?
2) you have 75 years old + you prefer physical delivery, the way amazon push concept = no more postal human activity at all, will the grany beat the propellers with the rod to stop it ?
3) aerian control over city to security ? about close airport ? civilian casualties in a windy condition pushing the bot on the tree, electrical cables, phone cable ? battery low ?
4) warehouse is not 10km away but 50km ( example ) do bot will do like electric car & wait 8hours to full charge to go forward ? ( battery weight ? autonomy ? )
natural ressources all over the planet to keep putting ALL FUCKING MACHINERY & DEVICES ON ELECTRONICS ??? i mean wtf ppl no more knowing how manualy sharpen a fucking knife on a kitchen... the day of the massive off grid solar erruption , 95% humans go panic to death coz of unability to revert manual jobs.
Yep
Taught my kids to read a map on the family trip last week. They will know how to read a map dammit!
You're expecting the usps to take advantage of an efficiency opportunity?
Ha ha
You are full of preconceptions on LED lighting and have mostly no clue what you're talking about.
LED lamps have reached fantastic efficiency, the light color is very good, instant full light intensity when turning on, no mercury is set free when you drop one, and they pretty much don't care about switch cycles regarding life expectancy.
Get a Kill-A-Watt (or similar in Canada) and measure yourself before spouting nonsense about energy use / efficiency.
And why do you think cities are exchanging their street lights with LED type ones?
Because they get incentived to switch and not because LEDs make economic sense. If they did (i.e., everyone would buy them as the better, cheaper alternatve rather than as an expensive waste of money), we would all have LEDs lighting eveything already. Sort of the same idea with Elon Musk's tax credit trading company that happens to make a fabulously expensive electric car too. Without government intervention the market would have already determined the idea of a six figure electric vehicle was a bad sideshow and relegated it to the dust bin.
But we live in a world of government intervention. Too bad for us since there are history books filled with the disasters created under such systems, but this time is different. They know what they are doing......
The past is no indication of similar future results.
In less than 5 years we will be using pretty much LED lights only everywhere, because they economically make sense. (This is already true for standard size low output bulbs up to 40W equivalent incandescent.)
Fluorescent and incandescent will be like phones with spin dials.
Energy improvement in consumer items??? No way. There are so many frickin electrical vampires around the house now drawing their milliwatts each that demand is up. TVs, set-top boxes, disk driver, modems, microwaves, stereos, phones, ovens, etc. all draw loads when they are essentially off. I don't know about you but I can navigate around the house at night from just the LEDs in all the appliances.
Actually, while computers are becoming more power efficient at idle, they're becoming far mor power hungry at load. Just look at the trend in desktop computer power supply unit wattages, from 300W in about 2000 to 800W+ today.
Sure, but the power supplies have gone from, what, 50% efficient? To ~85%, and most cases you're only going to draw maybe 500 watts since there tends to be tons of excess power on the 3.3V and 5V rails. That's for high end desktop under load with heavy GPU usage.
Our (10) photo-voltaic panels will be installed this week. Total cost $7000 USD. They should generate about 700 kwh per 2 month billing period - which runs on a 12 month credit cycle. Except for the summer months (pool pump) we will be producers.
Viva Mexico!!
In California t costs $10K for the permits and expensive "licensed" contractors. Then you pay for the hardware.
DEFINITIONS:
SOCIALISM: From each according to his ability to each according to his need and public ownership of the means of production.
CAPITALISM: A relative term used to describe a socialist system where the speaker does not agree with the prevailing identification of who are the able and who the needy.
FREE MARKET CAPITALISM: A thoeretical system imagined by 18th Century Scottish writer Adam Smith.
gcjohns1971
Where are you getting these definitions?
Socialism - from Babeuf, Marx, Engels, Mao, Mussolini, Hitler.
Capitalism - Common usage.
Free-Market Capitalism - "Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith.
Socialist usually don't remember these. They did after all invent the memory-hole.
gcjohns1971... That should help:
Marxist ideology refers to a stage of history in which there is a class system in which the proletariat is exploited by the bourgeoisie. In Marxist theory and socialist literature, working class is often used synonymously with the term proletariat, and includes all those who expend either mental or physical labor to produce economic value, or wealth in non-academic terms, for those who own means of production.
Marxism sees the proletariat and bourgeoisie (capitalist class) as occupying conflicting positions, since workers automatically wish their wages to be as high as possible, while owners and their proxies wish for wages . . . to be as low as possible. Wikipedia
So gcjohns1971, United States of America IS NOT a Marxist/Socialist nation. To the contrary!
Because, we, in America, are the ones exploiting the world… as well as, the non-academic Americans, in America.
The United States is a Corporatocracy. A kind of Hybrid version of Fascism.
Free market systems require "Freedom." They can't function in captivity.
What about the fucking Greeks, Romans, and Egyptians? ......did Marx invent this shit?????
It doesn't matter who invented it. Square wheels just don't work.
Until someone can figure out an economic system that can thrive with zero growth, we're going to be doomed to cyclical societal collapses.
Kleptocracy. The only definition that matters.
And still, even after 6 years of wanton destruction from a radically Left, anti-American RaceMarxist, a system MARKEDLY better than that utilized by the vast majority of the world.
Most especially, the narcissistic Socialism favoring by sneering, lecturing know-nothing EuroSmugs.
Escrava Isaura....I disgaree with your last comment that America is the one exploiting the world. They used to. Not any more.
Ever since 9/11, they have dragged themselves down economically as well as morally.
However, now America is being bought over due to their self destructive attitude towards remaining a global police force for which they simply do not have the money power any longer.
Over the last decade, China has bought various large assets from the largest movie theatre chain (AMC) to largest pork producer (Smithfield Foods) to the largest alfalfa farm in Utah etc. Not to mention parts of IBM or all of Motorola etc.
From almost zero levels until 2009, the Chinese are now acquiring assets across America for pennies on the dollars and have spent in excess of USD 31bn in USA just in the past 4 years.
http://rhg.com/notes/chinese-fdi-in-the-us-2013-recap-and-2014-outlook
What this means is that all profits from such entities will now flow through to China.
USA used to be a power house, when it could dictate terms to Saudi and others to continue trading oil in USD. However, Saudi has been pissed for various reasons and have now created for the first time ever a sovereign wealth fund....which basically means that they are tired of US hegemony and wish to deal with the rest of the world as equals and will diversify away from US Treasuries and God forbid if they sell oil in non USD currencies. Aside from Saudi, Russia too has been selling US Treasuries. This is not a good sign for the years to come for America. https://www.zawya.com/story/Saudi_sovereign_wealth_fund_plan_attracts_de...
America's hey days are a past just like the British or the Roman empire! The future will be a multi polar world. US will have a seat on the table but shall be unable to exert the force it used to, until a few years ago.
America turned socialist once it bailed out the US banks and continues to support them. For a short period of time, it could be justified, however, in the 8th year, there is no moral justification of the US banks to continue to be supported with endless tax payer dollars with no debate on why QE is happening and why the Fed is buying dead and unsellable bonds from the insolvent banks.
Can someone explain to me why is QE happening at all for the last few years?
Dubai Banker
Very interesting reply (writing). Working, while eating, in answering your thread.
Dubai Banker,
Please, tell us why QE is happening? It's obvious that you know... and understand.
And because I am not a banker.
That's the basis for monetary theory, 1. Its complicated. 2. So fucking complicated neither I, nor anybody else with a PhD can explain it. We aren't even sure we understand it ourselves. 3. Stop trying to understand it, I don't have time to explain it to somebody as insignificant as you, now fuck off!
Dubai Banker can... he/she already proved that.
But that was funny.
If I am so insignificant, then why did you bother to reply? It's difficult to predict whether you are having periods or you are just an asshole?
Now go on...take your meds...seems your momma forgot to give it you today.
If you can't say something useful, then fuck off!
Dubai Banker...
Hope you are talking to flyingcaveman. I did not say that your opinion was insignificant. To the contrary. I want to hear your opinion. I think your opinion would be of great value to this thread, and Zero Hedgers.
Yes indeed....I replied to flyingcaveman...certainly not to you, Escrava Isura.
"That's the basis for monetary theory,
1. Its complicated.
2. So fucking complicated neither I, nor anybody else with a PhD can explain it. We aren't even sure we understand it ourselves.
3. Stop trying to understand it, I don't have time to explain it to somebody as insignificant as you, now fuck off!"
This is not referring to you directly, it is the answer the mainstream economists give, that the system is too complicated to explain to non-economists, or that they have important things to do and don't want to waste time explaining it to the common person.
Also, in your 2nd paragraph you used the word “Moral”
I find it very telling because, I am assuming, you’re part of the Elite of the Middle East which, by its rules, always are very supportive of US policies.
So how did the US lost its moral grounds after 9/11?
Are you serious? Assuming for a minute that the US MIC ever had any moral standing (big assumption), setting in motion the mother of all false flag attacks to justify the suspension of the Constitution and the invasions of a series of sovereign nations to secure oil resources for the benefit of giant corporations and secure the flow of drug money to fuel covert ops around the world - that should pretty much eliminate any claim related to "morality."
Citxmech
Not sure if you're asking me, because I never said anything about moral standards.
By the way, when I asked about morals, I was asking Dubai Banker about his 9/11 statement. He never said anything about MIC.
US MIC was my euphemism for the US government.
There are many reasons how USA lost its moral high ground post 9/11 to answer your question.
From wars in Middle East to interventions in Libya, Ukraine, Cuba (Guantanamo without any court after a decade is preposterous) to name a few, unnecessary wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and instigations in Pakistan etc and drone attacks all around and manipulating gold and other prices and not letting banks go under which was prescribed to all countries during the Asian crisis has led to a multi faceted loss of face of America globally. All this simply cannot be undone. Not to mention spying on leaders of almost countries and the general public globally.. and then bringing the plane of the President of Colombia down during the Snowden saga last year......the list is too long from the perspective of people who are not US citizens who are all rising up now (6.9bn and more) and can see the American face from beneath the veil.
What right does America have to intervene in the lives of any of the countries I mentioned? Sometimes it is ok, to bring peace and stability but to attack only those countries that have oil says a lot about American policies. Why dont Americans attack North Korea (because they dont have oil) or for that matter Russia or China (because they cant fight with equals). If that is not bullying everybody else for the sake of oil and bullying the weak ones and giving a chance for others to say that US has lost its moral compass for the sake of money, then I dont know what is.
The long answer will be very political and hence I cannot elaborate here.
And no, I am not part of any elite group. Just a fellow human traveller through planet Earth who thinks a lot land worries about the future of all....
Thanks for your reply, Dubai Banker. Very similar to what I heard last time I was in Brazil.
Anyway, if I hear you correctly, not that you mention QE this time, if Asia banks had QE back in the 90’s, these Asians banks wouldn’t have gone bankrupted.
My take of QE is because there is NO more growth. US lifestyle, real-estate prices, and US tax base would collapse. We would become a 3rd world nation in matter of weeks.
@Dubaibanker 1317
I largely agree with your sentiments, and I also think we may all benefit from a conceptual framework that allows us to view the (former republic) USoA as one -- likely several -- pieces on "The Grand Chessboard", Israel as one (or more!) pieces, and so forth. Whether or not there are actually TWO sides in this game (as in Chess), is open to question. As a colleague of mine in the field of traffic safety once declared in testimony and print while arguing for raising to 21 the legal drinking age in the US (a state-level policy, by the way), "there is no other side!" Maybe not. In the meantime, we would do well to look behind the Veil to see WHO does what. Constructs like "US", "Israel", "Jews", etc. conceal and obfuscate more than they reveal.
Perhaps you can submit your longer, very political answer to the TDs as a submission for consideration of publication on this site. Thank you for your insights.
A letter to Dubai Banker and Hedgers
“Of all Roman conquests, only Asia had a surplus” — Cicero, 66 B.C.
How the misinformed ‘Lucky’ US middleclass got the world’s surpluses. How we’re going to lose them. In few words:
US is a consumer nation. The only thing we produce more than the rest of the world is weaponry and ammunitions. Even Airbus manufactures more airplanes than Boeing.
We, in America, got to this point, mainly, by two ways: Global Reserve Currency [non-military invasion] and/or invading [overthrowing elected governments]. Iran, Chile, and Indonesia are good examples. But the list is long.
Anyway, before Iran, Chile, and many others:
In 1783, Americans kicked the British out of the 13 colonies. That was the “First British Empire” lost [how ironic]. Gibraltar remained under British rule, but, it had NO resources.
In 1846 was the beginning of US war machine —Military Industrial Complex (MIC)— by invading Mexico [No Global Reserve Currency back them] and stolen half of Mexico. Link here.
Then, in 1861, the other ‘quagmire’ America faced was how to reconcile the expending industrial north [financial oligarchs and MIC] with the agricultural [laid back] south. They solved it by killing each other [Civil war]. Then, the ‘North’ labeled it [lied] as they were freeing the slaves, when, in fact, they [the north] were planning to send the ‘freed’ slaves to Liberia and Haiti. However, the logistics of moving out these many [freed] black people became impossible.
Another reason for the civil war [to exploit the South] was that the ‘North’ economy was stagnating [railroad and land speculation collapsed, living the north bankrupted and its savings gone] while the ‘South’ was prospering.
Of course, there was NO minimum-wage [all were slaves] on the South, Remember? So how could the ‘South’ NOT be profitable, Right?
In 1896, America turned its ‘Global War-Machine’ (MIC) into a Empire, by moving into Central America and kicking Spain [an US allied against the British] out. Even the Philippines was taken from Spain. Then, it created the Down Jones 12 industrial stocks.
1900 election [McKinley] campaign was focused on expanding a) US imperialism abroad, b) Protectionism [products had to be made in America], and c) High-tariffs [if the ship carrying any products, to or from America, didn’t have US flag].
Also, America started as the richest [coal, oil, and natural gas] continents to exploit, with only a few scattered Amerindians putting up a fight [FlakmeisterTM]. Imagine if the Permian Basin and Spindletop [oil] and Anthracite Upland [coal] were in Brazil? Or Argentina?
Then, late 1800’s, came the realization of the importance of oil, as the most likely substitute of coal. Even that, the 1st oil well and refinery were built in Russia, in 1745.
Anyway, the German and Austria-Hungarian needed to get to the oil before the British Empire did. So, invading Russia and moving East [Ottoman Empire] were a must [WW-1]. The Germans didn’t care about France, but needed France to stay neutral. However, France was a British ally. Also, Ottoman Empire was running out of meat. And Germany out of produce.
WW-2 was a continuation of WW-1. However, with lots of debt and heavily on propaganda.
In 1944 came Bretton Woods: Dollar as World’s Reserve Currency. It means: United States would use the convertible financial system to trade at a tremendous profit with developing nations, expanding its industry and acquiring raw materials. It would use this surplus to send dollars to Europe, which would then be used to rebuild their economies, and make the United States the market for their products. This would allow the other industrialized nations to purchase products from the Third World, which reinforced the American role as the guarantor of stability.
Bretton Woods collapse [America decline] started in 1949: “Loss of China”. Followed by Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam… and the list goes on.
The second major blow to Bretton Woods [America decline] was in 1971, when the US became a net-importer of oil. It means, more dollars going to the Middle-East that would be exchanged for gold. US unilaterally cancel this direct convertibility, upsetting the Saudis, thus causing oil shortages and inflation.
By pegging the dollar to oil —say Australia wants to buy oil from Iran, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq— it needs first to buy ‘have’ dollars to buy the oil. The aim here is to get a ‘cut’ on these transactions, generate foreign exchanges, while extracting capital [those dollars] back out the country, as well as its oil. In this example, to Australia.
Oil, Demographics, and Debt?
What am I missing here?
Looking forward for your reply.
What am I missing here?
Most are looking to find out when this madness ends....
(Glubb - Fate of Empires)
almost there.
"all were slaves"
[face palm]
The majority of Southern households did not own slaves.
I never said that, "The majority of Southern households own slaves." I never researched that record.
I was referring to the cost of labor, which was none. Unless you want to include their food and housing.
So you are free to remove your hands from your face and read what I said more carefully.
"The only thing we produce more than the rest of the world is weaponry and ammunitions"
How about food (Cargill,ADM et), chemicals (Dow, Dupont etc), biochemicals (Amgen, Biogen, Genentech), pharmaceuticles (Pzifer, Merck etc), autos & trucks and construction equipment (ford, gm, catapiller etc), software (Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Google), microprocessors(INTEL AMD etc), entertainment, communications (CISCO, Verizon, At&T), Jet Engines & Satellites(Pratt&Whitney, GE, Boeing etc), Power Plants and Medical equipment (GE), Scientific Instruments (Fisher Scientific), even advanced machine tools (ITT, ITW). All these companies dominate the world markets. The Chinese can at best hope to steal the technology we've taken the last 100 years to develope. If you give them plans and blueprints they can provide cheap assembly which they are currently doing. Oh, and we also dominate robotics and automation, so that cheap labor advantage may not last either.
Remember, no one else would even have mastered fission weapons if the Russians hadn't stolen it from Los Alamos,followed by the Chinese stealing it from the Russians and thence to the Indians and Pakisanis etc.
You need to get out of the house more! There's a whole world of products out there, developed right here. including the internet technology and servers you're using to make your myopic comment.
Coltrane,
I just got back ... in the house. Anyway, your list is long. You sure did some homework. Impressive and scary. However, not sure if all these are produced in the US.
Is my computer, and its components, made in the US? I read somewhere that only Gateway was.
I drive a Ford. Is that made in America? Not sure. But I’ll leave it in a positive view:
By Harvard Business Review: In general, we don’t expect many companies to close their existing facilities in China and to reshore them in the U.S. But we do expect many companies to locate new manufacturing facilities in the U.S., particularly in sectors such as aerospace and defense, oil and gas, and the automotive industry….. this doesn’t amount to a renaissance or a new dawn. But after decades of decline, it’s a welcome advance.
Business in USA just isn't possible to be profitable for an owner with Americna citizenship. Attached tax and regulatory load is simply too high. QE is letting corprorate entities get established outside American tax and regulatory structures-while maintaining their internal USA derived cash flows.
Doctor 10:
About a year or so ago, I was having a drink at Cafe Milano, in Washington, DC. On that weekend there was a doctor’s conference going on in DC.
I think one of the doctors said it was in or, it was sponsored by Georgetown Town University. Anyway, too many doctors in and out of the bar at Milano. Got to talk to two of them. A few drinks, my accent, and they spill the guts.
Doctor—A: “It’s a total mess. Here we have the US government complaining about Syria using poison gas but, to this day, I still treating people affected by the Agent Orange used by the British and Americans, in 1960’s”
Doctor—B: “It’s all a big lie. To get pay on the healthcare you have to lie. I work in a hospital in Boston. You have no idea what I have to go through so the hospital and our doctors can get paid”
Can someone explain to me why is QE happening at all for the last few years?
becuz its the only way to recycle petrodollars other than another war
as for "Saudi pissed" who isnt? U mistake the Russian communist counterweight to the USA with the Sino
communist kind which is far, far better. The World has someone to compete/counter the USA and i'm not sure thats a bad thing
QE and recycled petrodollar? You lost me there.
Can someone explain to me why is QE happening at all for the last few years?
Easy. Because it has to happen. Without QE the bonds could only be sold at higher rates, if at all, which would have cratered the whole thing.
"....cratered the whole thing."
slightlyskeptical, that's scary, and a valid point..... But must be more!
Some of those who have replied to you may be making assumptions about what you already know. Here's a bit more detail: the reason the whole thing would crater is that if interest rates go up, even a little, the US government would not be able to make interest payments on its debt with out massive money printing.
You may have heard many figures that are supposedly US national debt, but most are fraudulent. real US debt - all of it altogether - is somewhere around 200 trillion (yes trillion with a T) dollars. The entire system is stretched very, very thin, and has been on the verge of collapse since at least 2008.
The Fed has painted itself into a corner, and there is no escape. All they can do at this point is see how long they can hold the status quo.
Creepy, if you’re right, there’s NO way out. Agree with you. And thanks for your input.
Now, in your ‘humble’ opinion, when it collapses, what will happen?
Obvious the world will be ‘have to’ run away from dollars.
My opinion is indeed humble, lol. I'm no economist or financier, and most certainly don't have a crystal ball. But keeping all that in mind, my opinion is that the US will break apart like the old Soviet Union did. As far as the monetary and social results of that breakup, well use your imagination, while keeping in mind we are heavily armed and dont really like each other very much. It won't be pretty.
I'm thinking Argentina in 2001, but more violent, and the US gov. will almost certainly default on its debts.
Wow! US breaking apart...
That never crossed my mind.
I tell my friends about Orlov’s 5 stages collapse. I guess I have do add breaking apart.
Well, maybe. I think QE is happening because the banksters can legitimately buy up whatever it is they are buying under the cover of 'doing it for the good of the nation and the economy'. And remember it is all with digits created out of thin air. Does anyone here really thing that is the reason??
Dubaibanker: "Can someone explain to me why is QE happening at all for the last few years?"
I've really enjoyed reading this conversation, but I venture to point out, in case no one else has, that QE will have ended by October of this year. Slowly and belatedly, but nonetheless inevitably, the banks and the Fed are winding down this monetary policy experiment. Then we'll finally see some fireworks in the economy as all that extra liquidity looks for a place to settle. I expect stocks will finally crater in the 4th quarter of 2014, bond yields may shrink to barely detectable lifesigns a la Japan, and commodities could spike horribly. All this will be transient, however. No amount of extra liquidity is capable of blowing bubbles in a truly deflationary economy, and the Fed will stop the money printing before it devalues the currency altogether. The financial system will seize up and for a few months there will be talk of seriously draconian measures such as bail-ins, but that too will not last very long. In the end the financial system will just be allowed to fail, for there is no other choice. America will enter the turbulent era of its "Yeltzin Period," and after that all linear predictions fail. No one can say what will happen beyond the collapse, only that the collapse is imminent.
Goose, welcome to the thread. Glad that you layout your understands.
Goose, you said: QE will have end… Then we'll finally see some fireworks in the economy as all that extra liquidity looks for a place to settle.
Where is this extra liquidity?
Then, you said: No amount of extra liquidity is capable of blowing bubbles in a truly deflationary economy, and the Fed will stop the money printing before it devalues the currency altogether.
So, when I tell some of my friends that real estate and stocks will lose 50% value, at least. And when the banks and tax fails, unemployment will go over 40%? Am I being to pessimist?
…era of its "Yeltzin Period,"
So, will America break apart?
1. In my opinion, the extra liquidity is in stocks and repo markets right now. Be advised that I'm not a financial expert, however; just an ordinary guy from the sticks who's trying to understand the world we live in.
2. No you're not being too pessimistic predicting 50% correction in stocks; that wouldn't surprise me a bit if it happened. But 40% unemployment is way too high. People will make other arrangements long before we hit a number like that. 40% unemployment is already outside the boundaries of measurement; it is simply a synonym for a failed state.
3. Could America break apart? Probably not legally, but open refusal by state governors to go along with federal policy is certainly not out of the question.
QE's purpose was to recapitalize the banks while clearing their balance sheets of toxic assets. this extended backdoor bailout has been charged to the public via the inflation tax. The alternative would have been a nationalizing of the large banks. This would have been cheaper, though the llevel of insolvency would have likely required monetization anyway less a large portion of the public's savings be rendered invalid. Being that the FED is owned by Chase, Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citigroup, the alternative was never going to happen under any circumstance.
NihilistZero
Glad you mention nationalization. I heard that in Brazil. And I heard that Brazilians are very sophisticated bankers. However, I didn’t take them seriously.
Anyway, they told me that is why US government is after offshore banks, because once they nationalize, they will come after the hidden money offshore.
"DEFINITIONS":
Capital: The same as "savings". The difference between what you produce and what you consume.
Capitalism: You use your savings and labor to produce a product or a service and offer it in the market place. If people buy it for the price you ask then you make a profit otherwise you lose your capital and labor.
gcjohns1971: A typical liberal.
orez65...
Are you OK? I am having trouble getting your message… from a message that makes no sense.
Anyway, for whatever it's worth: I don't think gcjohns1971 is a liberal.
Indeed; "gcjohns1971" is no liberal.
"Are you OK?"
Yes, thank you.
What gets described as "capitalism" is really "mercantilism". Where private individuals use the power of the state to enrich themselves.
Bankers in a fiat money system are the "poster boys" for mercantilism in the US. They have been given a monopoly over our currency and are robbing us.
Another example would be General Electric, which is scaming the taxpayers with their windmill scam and other military boondogles.
Capitalism is just as I described, the buying and selling of services in a free market using you skills and capital.
And, indeed, it is quite old.
orez65
Glad that you clear the air. Anyway, labeling is the hardest to overcome.
Many here at Zero Hedge, including Dubai Banker, called government intervention Socialism. I call it Cronyism. Socialism is opposite of government, in my view. Socialism is hard work. You own what you produce. You have to produce and share. So calling liberals socialists, it’s an insult to socialism.
Russia is NOT socialist. Cuba and Colombia are.
US is not a free-market capitalist. US is a corporatocracy. Its financial system, too, is part of this corporatocracy.
However, I am going to listen to what you just wrote and I am going to look at Mercantilism and Fiat currency.
Maybe US is a mercantilism corporatocracy global reserve fiat currency. I am gonna research that.
"orez65": You're operating on way too elementary a level. There's far more to "capital" and "capitalism." You're defining "money" and "trading." Both things that existed long before capitalism and will long survive it. Money becomes capital when you can buy and sell it as a commodity and a derivative of a commodity in and of itself. When money assumes those traits and behaviors, everything changes. Capitalism is the system that results from that transformation.
Thanks swmnguy. You put it much more eloquently that I would know how.
>>No income power, welcome to Free-Market capitalism.<<
Imagine being able to conjure "income" from nothing an be able to charge interest on it and get bailouts whenever you get in trouble?
This isn't capitalism, this is monetary / financial empire being waged by supranational Debt Money Tyrants.
Debt Money Tyranny
http://www.keepandshare.com/doc/4768883/debtmoneytyranny-6-1-pdf-60k?tr=77
Poverty - Debt is not a Choice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juQc0rLdB-E
How to be a Crook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oHbwdNcHbc
Renaissance 2.0 - Financial Empire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96c2wXcNA7A
Debunking Money - The Way the World Really Works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_yh4-Zi92Q
Bonus:
The Shadows of Power: The Council on Foreign Relations and the American Decline | James Perloff
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_gj1uZ6194
==========
The Trivium Method - Gene Odening (entire) - what you should have been taught in school but weren't
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AszYrxtzNQE
Trivium Resources - TragedyandHope.com
https://www.tragedyandhope.com/trivium/
Trivium Binder
http://triviumbinder.blogspot.com/
The Lost (Hidden!) Tools of Learning
http://www.scribd.com/doc/36325362/The-Lost-Tools-of-Learning
For Floridians this might be of some use: http://outagemap.duke-energy.com/fl/default.html
It will be interesting to see what happens this winter if we get another colder than normal winter combined with Obama's planned closures of scores of coal fired plants.
Coal? I thought we run out of Anthracite coal.
Time for soylent coal? Ewww...
Uhmm! Giving it a consideration
So that's what the immigration thing is all about! More guacanos to stuff into the boilers.
what the immigration thing is all about
LOL... it's about keeping the conservatives in love with BigGuv.
Hmm. Whale oil fueled a generations' lamps - There's certainly enough obese folks in the US to do the same for a while. . .
I was just giving it a consideration... Not planning 'making assumptions' of its efficiency
Relax dude. It's not all about you.
Peepul, we're burning peepul!
No, its all being shipped to china
Yes from Penn. It mostly gone.
Yup, it's amazing how much that ONE person is doing to affect the ENTIRE planet!
BTW - People can't afford shit, so that's why the decline in coal plants. Think about it, what better way to hide the reality of the failure of perpetual growth than to force that eventuality via legislative mandates that the emotionally disturbed will latch on to to support their Party...
Seer,
That's right. US already extracted the easiest and best coal. Even China is refusing some of the US coal exported there.
A shortened growing season will spell disaster as well, this cool summer in the midwest is probably going to affect the crops overall maturing cycle.
We really don't need anymore black swans but it appears they are traveling in herds.
PR, Knee high by the 4th of July is the rule of thumb for a good crop yield. The farms in Southern Wisconsin far exceeded that. You really need to get out beyond your concrete jungle existence.
Sum Ting Wong
Wei Tu Lo
Ho Lee Fook
Ding Bang Oww
Bang Dae Ho
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/afternoon-humor
Bang Dae Shin, hurt like Fuk...
Nah, this is a jobless, productionless, non-energy consuming recovery.
I'm surprised they didn't hit a peak during the polar vortex. That many people installed wood burners?
POwer use is highest when the ACs are in use but you can see the polar votex in the double peak at the end of 2013. There aren't any other major peaks at the end of other years on the chart.
When I build my bunker/man cave/strip club, I'm going to design it to minimize the need for AC. Like houses of old were build prior to the availablity of conditioned air.
+1 for bunker/man cave/strip club
Demand destruction.
Would be nice to see this same information on a longer timeline.
very interesting view on data that IS relevent. thanks ZH
Right! After all, we're number-1 in consumption.
Hello Summer Recovery Version 6.
Since 2007...
Looks like peak power (oil, natgas, etc.)
Looks like Las Vegas may be the next to fall off the fiat truck..which Hoover Dam provides electricity and to Los Angeles.
Clean water (again historical low water levels at Hoover Dam/Lake Mead) will also impact Las Vegas, Nevada, Arizona, California
If Los Angeles has hot 2014 summer black/grey/brownouts, then we have reached our limits.
Gen III nuclear plants may 'save the day' but these will be 20 years out.
What else is peaking or flat, after this largest/longest/financed fiat credit bubble expansion ?
Argentina debt looks like the next tipping point in 2 weeks..with side effects occurring daily in developing economies (East Europe, Portugal, etc.)
Now that I dumped the home and rent, I take really long showers !
Funny how economies are seen as "muddling along" when things are relatively flat. In physics, this is usually called "equilibrium" which is typically a good thing.
Oh I forgot, we must have "Growth!" Perpetual growth. Like bacteria. Like a ponzi scheme we were all born into and sold daily as normal. Yeah...
Growth is unsustainable.
Just like erections.
You need to seek medical attention for any span of growth lasting more than 4 hours.
"Funny how economies are seen as "muddling along" when things are relatively flat. In physics, this is usually called "equilibrium" which is typically a good thing.
Oh I forgot, we must have "Growth!" Perpetual growth. Like bacteria. Like a ponzi scheme we were all born into and sold daily as normal. Yeah..."
World population has ncreased from 6.6B in 2007 to 7.1B today. So.....yeah, flat economic activity means there's a problem.
In the last 14 years, America has increased its population by more than the total population of Canada.
The real need for growth, however, is government and government programs, otherwise taxes have to increase to make up the shortfall, but the increased taxes slow growth, which means more taxes, which means less growth ...
Nothing in our world grows forever, but try telling that to a central banker.