BP's Latest Estimate Says World's Oil Will Last 53.3 Years

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Andy Tully via OilPrice.com,

According to BP, drivers whose vehicles rely on burning oil have a little more than a half-century to find alternate sources of energy. Or walk.

BP’s annual report on proved global oil reserves says that as of the end of 2013, Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of crude, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction. This figure is 1.1 percent higher than that of the previous year. In fact, during the past 10 years proven reserves have risen by 27 percent, or more than 350 billion barrels.

The increased amount of oil in the report include 900 million barrels detected in Russia and 800 million barrels in Venezuela. OPEC nations continue to lead the world by having a large majority of the planet’s reserves, or 71.9 percent.

As for the United States, which lately has been ramping up oil extraction through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, BP says its proven oil reserves are 44.2 billion barrels, 26 percent higher than in BP’s previous report. This is more than reported most recently by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which had raised its own estimate by 15 percent to 33.4 billion barrels.

That means shale-oil extraction enterprises in the United States have more to offer than many first believed. The sources include the Bakken formation spanning Canadian and U.S. territory in the West, the Eagle Ford formation in East Texas and the super-rich Permian Basin in West Texas, which alon holds 75 billion barrels of recoverable fossil fuels.

And though Eagle Ford and Bakken seem to hold far less oil, EOG Resources, which has been working Eagle Ford, has increased its estimates of the site’s reserves. The Motley Fool reports that its latest estimate of recoverable fuel is 3.2 billion barrels, more than the nearly 1 billion barrels expected in 2010.

Nevertheless, BP is cautious in defining oil reserves. At the top of an introductory web page on the subject, the company states baldly: “Nobody knows or can know how much oil exists under the earth's surface or how much it will be possible to produce in the future.”

And while the amount of proven oil reserves, and their extraction, are rising each year, so is concern about how their recovery. Not only do new extraction methods use huge amounts of energy to get even more energy, particularly from shale, they also use chemicals and metals that many fear poison nearby soil and groundwater, and generate huge amounts of toxic wastewater.

Such methods are helping the United States, for example, to achieve energy independence. But that won’t apply to China, a huge customer for fossil fuels. BP says Asia-Pacific oil reserves will last only 14 years at current rates. That means China will have to keep importing oil, putting further strain on global reserves.

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knukles's picture

Fuck it.  I say let'em walk.

power steering's picture

We can only hope that CYNK reopens by then

knukles's picture

Ya'know, all the Progressives out here in Never My Fault Land especially in the Inner Area of We Need to Pass a Law and Raise Taxes About It are all in favor of public transport.  But not a single fucking one of 'em takes it.  And I'm especially referring to the governmental employees whose transportation dreams run right past handy dandy parking lots as gathering points and drop offs right in front of municipal and county buildings, but Oh Fucking No, not me, it's inconvenience and as a matter of fact, they (meaning the taxpayer should pay for it) get us all those energy efficient Teslas so we can save Fucking Gas and The Planet at the Same Fucking Time while we drive about smugly on Other People's Fucking Money.

CrazyCooter's picture

I am long the PlowMulesAndOuthouses index. I am also getting in on the ground floor of the hard cob market. Gonna make me a bundle!

Want some shares?



EDIT: Knuckles, you should qualify your PSA as being sponsored by the letter "F". :-)

pakled's picture

"F" was the letter of the day on today's Sesame St. rerun.


(I have a broad range of interest)

BaBaBouy's picture

Thank Goodness We Have Plenty Of Dinasours To Convert To Oil...

Pladizow's picture

"At current rates of extraction." = brutally flawed analysis!

So zero economic growth?

Because you can't have economic growth without additional oil!

logicalman's picture

Turn that around.

It will tell you how the world needs to change.

Keyser's picture

And how many trillions of cubic meters of natural gas left on the planet? So the paradigm shifts, yawn... 


Lore's picture

Re: dinosaurs

I know you're being facetious, dredging up that old saw, but it seems very hard to shake among young people. Forbearance is a virtue.

Ham-bone's picture

Jokes abound -

a 300% increase in price ($38 to $109) from '04 til '13 produced a 5% increase in global production.  And available net exports are falling...this game is up. 

53 yrs...what a joke.  When the last 10yrs show a price of something triples but net supply barely changes while total demand continues rising...ummm, that may indicate there is a problem.


Headbanger's picture

Yep.   And all because we must have growth, growth, growth, growth, growth...

That's the real joke

Along with Chrysler just coming out with a 700 HP Challenger RT !!

Oh yeah!  Gotta have seven hundred fucking horsepower to go nowhere!!


Thorium bitchez!!


But moar likely we'll have plutonium used big time for a few hours to end the whole fucking joke.

magnetosphere's picture

is plutonium really that bad?  chernobyl is the largest wildlife sanctuary in europe.  really, human encroachment is a far greater threat to the furry animals than a total nuclear meltdown

Apply Force's picture

And the biodiversity around Chernobyl is what in comparison to pre-melt down?  And how about the life-span of species in that "sanctuary" ? ? Birth defect rate pre- and post- melt down ? ? ?

Your lack of understanding in this coupled with your screen name is ironic.

magnetosphere's picture

answer: prior to meltdown there were lots of people and no furry creatures.  after meltdown, all the peeps left and the furry creatures BOOMED with no known genetic defects.  current density of wolves is the exact same as other wolf sanctuaries.

oh yea, hiroshima and nagasaki have no excess radiation over background levels.


logicalman's picture


furry creatures BOOMED with no known genetic defects????

Animals living in contaminated areas in and around Chernobyl have suffered from a variety of side effects caused by radiation. Oxidative stress and low levels of antioxidants have had severe consequences on the development of the nervous system, including reduced brain size and impaired cognitive abilities. It has been found that birds living in areas with high levels of radiation have statistically significantly smaller brains, which has shown to be a deficit to viability in the wild.[17] Barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that live in or around Chernobyl have displayed an increased rate of physical abnormalities compared to swallows from uncontaminated areas. Abnormalities included partially albinistic plumage, deformed toes, tumors, deformed tail feathers, deformed beaks, and deformed air sacks. Birds with these abnormalities have a reduced viability in the wild and a decrease in fitness. These effects are likely due to radiation exposure and elevated teratogenic effects of radioactive isotopes in the environment.[18]
Invertebrate populations (including bumblebees, butterflies, grasshoppers, dragonflies, and spiders) has significantly decreased. Currently, most radioactivity around Chernobyl is located in the top layer of soil, where many invertebrates live or lay their eggs. The reduced abundance of invertebrates can have negative implications for the entire ecosystem surrounding Chernobyl

I guess you don't read much.


magnetosphere's picture

i hate reading.  but i meant today, and serious defects.  the birds are thriving out there today.  i repeat myself, but radioactive isotopes seem to be a wee bit overrated

Bernoulli's picture

No chance, ms, ZH-readers seem to be mainly anti-nuclear...


83_vf_1100_c's picture

Why 700hp? Actually they are quoting 485 hp for the 2015, but the question is why the fuck not 700hp? The old musclecars had power but no handling or brakes. The new stuff has it all. What do you do on the weekends, play with your bullion? Fuck a herd of Priusii, Priuses, or whatever they call them.

mkkby's picture

Fuck oil.  For those trying to be independent, just grow an acre or two of bio diesel.

logicalman's picture

Quite clever from a government funding perspective.

If I was sitting in one of those every day, one day I'd just have to let 'er rip.

Large contribution to local government coffers occurs.


americanreality's picture

I assume you are referring to the cretin that goes by "knukles".  

DoChenRollingBearing's picture




That's because what's good for the goose (us) is not good enough for the gander (.gov employees).

knukles's picture

Ya know, DoChen, here we are worrying about 53 years of oil.  I mean who gives a fuck, 53, 23, 103, whatever, when the world is totally being engulfed in war, pestilence, famine, disease, bio-chemical exterminaiton events, racial enmity, religious crusades of murder, debauchery, pillage and burning.  Indeed the whole fucking edifice of society's thin veneer of civilization is gone, peeled off and blown away and we're fucking around worrying about 53.3 years of oil.
Jesus God, man, the world is coming to an end and we're extrapolating shit out past our lives, behaving as if we can even control what's going to happen this evening when we pale into p[ure insignificance in the cosmic perspectives... when we should be considering the very nature of consciousness and time, but Oh Fucking No.....

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Buy gold?  Head for the hills?  Watch Netflix all day?  Hmm, inquiring minds want to know!


(moi? steps...)

BigJim's picture

But a better class of claret, is my recommendation.

jbvtme's picture

knucks...they're prepping your room at the detention center as we speak

cougar_w's picture

A nice rant. Another example for my journal of those who got it.


"when we should be considering the very nature of consciousness and time, but Oh Fucking No....."

sounds positively ...luxurious 

How about considering the legally binding agreement all Nations are contemplating in Paris 17 months from now?

Too far out? Is that pre-frontal cortex thingy asleep?

Not that there is anything wrong with ranting ; )

LawsofPhysics's picture

You mean the "do as I say, not as I do" crowd?  Come on Knuckles, everyone really wants to be an oligarch and you know it.


Long sharecropping, black markets and guillotine manufacturers...

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Probably worth noting several things:

1) That's proven reserves.  100% of those won't be recovered.  The classification of numbers like this is always difficult.  So that's to the downside.

2) To the upside, there are undiscovered reserves out there.

3) OilPrice.com is the most worthless source of ZH articles and 2nd place is a distant second in worthelessness (The Diplomat).  Here, in classic oilprice.com fashion we have this:

"In fact, during the past 10 years proven reserves have risen by 27 percent, or more than 350 billion barrels.

The increased amount of oil in the report include 900 million barrels detected in Russia and 800 million barrels in Venezuela. OPEC nations continue to lead the world by having a large majority of the planet’s reserves, or 71.9 percent."


Which is destroyed by this:


"Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s . . .

In a measure of the success of drilling projects, the number of new oilfield developments is set to drop below 50 per year in 2014 and 2015, compared with an average of 75 per year over the past decade, according to Nicholas Green, analyst at London-based Bernstein Research.


"This represents the lowest level of activity since 1999, lower even than the oil price crash of 2008-09," he said."

The thing about these worthless oilprice.com articles is the data they quote is just so obviously undone if they simply read the damn newswire.  Reuters had that days ago.


hedgeless_horseman's picture



That means shale-oil extraction enterprises in the United States have more to offer than many first believed

Fuck it.  I am buying a monster truck.

CrazyCooter's picture

Cross country shipping ain't as expensive as you might think. This guy has amazing inventory if you keep an eye on his site over time.


I was going to buy from him, but ended up with a deal I just couldn't pass up (ten year old, but extrememly low mileage ford with a v8 diesel).



hedgeless_horseman's picture



I will probably be dead in 53 years, so why not?


Year: 1989
Make: Chevrolet
Model: S-10
Color: Blue over Gray
Price: $39,900

  • 4.3 Litre V6 with 400HP
  • Balanced and blueprinted
  • Bored .30 over
  • Forged Pistons
  • 4-71 B.D.S blower
  • Dual 500 CFM carbs
  • Aluminum Be-Cool Radiator with dual electric fans
  • Set up for 102 Octane
  • Custom hoses w/AN fittings
  • Custom fuel tank


Jumbotron's picture

Is that because running over cars as your parking downtown INCREASES fuel mileage ?    LOL !!!

Ariadne's picture

It takes a certain amount of room to use all 400 ponies...

Jumbotron's picture

LOL !!   Gotcha !

It's the energy transfer from all the shifting back and forth from reverse to drive back to reverse again.

dogbreath's picture

definately no fat chicks allowed

espirit's picture

I like the MadMax version built on the 4x4 Expedition.

Alas, no linky.

Rusty Shorts's picture
Classic Car Lot Walk Around Pontiac Trans Am Chevy Olds 442 Ford Mercedes Youngtimer Classics



cougar_w's picture

Why not? Well for one thing it would make you look stupid. If you need another reason; about five years from now people situated on hilltops will be taking sniper shots at monsters like that, to general public approval.

hedgeless_horseman's picture



Well for one thing it would make you look stupid.

I won't look any more stupid than if I would have bought a Chevy Volt a few years ago. 

Besides, I can paint an American flag on it, and maybe a bald eagle, and then it will make me look patriotic.

cougar_w's picture

Don't buy either one, put the money in your pocket (or buy gold) and you get to feel very quietly superior. And for all practical purposes, would be.

Plus nobody is sighting in on you with a .308 from 500 yards out.

Jumbotron's picture

.300 Win Mag for the win at 2000 yards.

pods's picture

Not being familiar with that cartridge I checked the charts. That thing drops about 20 feet at 1000 yards (zero at 100).


Jumbotron's picture

<sigh>  My bad.....meant .300 WSM.

2000 yards would be difficult for sure....was joshing a bit on that one.

But 1000 yards.   well...check this out.