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BP's Latest Estimate Says World's Oil Will Last 53.3 Years

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Andy Tully via,

According to BP, drivers whose vehicles rely on burning oil have a little more than a half-century to find alternate sources of energy. Or walk.

BP’s annual report on proved global oil reserves says that as of the end of 2013, Earth has nearly 1.688 trillion barrels of crude, which will last 53.3 years at current rates of extraction. This figure is 1.1 percent higher than that of the previous year. In fact, during the past 10 years proven reserves have risen by 27 percent, or more than 350 billion barrels.

The increased amount of oil in the report include 900 million barrels detected in Russia and 800 million barrels in Venezuela. OPEC nations continue to lead the world by having a large majority of the planet’s reserves, or 71.9 percent.

As for the United States, which lately has been ramping up oil extraction through horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, BP says its proven oil reserves are 44.2 billion barrels, 26 percent higher than in BP’s previous report. This is more than reported most recently by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which had raised its own estimate by 15 percent to 33.4 billion barrels.

That means shale-oil extraction enterprises in the United States have more to offer than many first believed. The sources include the Bakken formation spanning Canadian and U.S. territory in the West, the Eagle Ford formation in East Texas and the super-rich Permian Basin in West Texas, which alon holds 75 billion barrels of recoverable fossil fuels.

And though Eagle Ford and Bakken seem to hold far less oil, EOG Resources, which has been working Eagle Ford, has increased its estimates of the site’s reserves. The Motley Fool reports that its latest estimate of recoverable fuel is 3.2 billion barrels, more than the nearly 1 billion barrels expected in 2010.

Nevertheless, BP is cautious in defining oil reserves. At the top of an introductory web page on the subject, the company states baldly: “Nobody knows or can know how much oil exists under the earth's surface or how much it will be possible to produce in the future.”

And while the amount of proven oil reserves, and their extraction, are rising each year, so is concern about how their recovery. Not only do new extraction methods use huge amounts of energy to get even more energy, particularly from shale, they also use chemicals and metals that many fear poison nearby soil and groundwater, and generate huge amounts of toxic wastewater.

Such methods are helping the United States, for example, to achieve energy independence. But that won’t apply to China, a huge customer for fossil fuels. BP says Asia-Pacific oil reserves will last only 14 years at current rates. That means China will have to keep importing oil, putting further strain on global reserves.


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Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:05 | 4956350 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuck it.  I say let'em walk.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:08 | 4956356 power steering
power steering's picture

We can only hope that CYNK reopens by then

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:11 | 4956382 knukles
knukles's picture

Ya'know, all the Progressives out here in Never My Fault Land especially in the Inner Area of We Need to Pass a Law and Raise Taxes About It are all in favor of public transport.  But not a single fucking one of 'em takes it.  And I'm especially referring to the governmental employees whose transportation dreams run right past handy dandy parking lots as gathering points and drop offs right in front of municipal and county buildings, but Oh Fucking No, not me, it's inconvenience and as a matter of fact, they (meaning the taxpayer should pay for it) get us all those energy efficient Teslas so we can save Fucking Gas and The Planet at the Same Fucking Time while we drive about smugly on Other People's Fucking Money.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:15 | 4956391 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I am long the PlowMulesAndOuthouses index. I am also getting in on the ground floor of the hard cob market. Gonna make me a bundle!

Want some shares?



EDIT: Knuckles, you should qualify your PSA as being sponsored by the letter "F". :-)

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:24 | 4956464 pakled
pakled's picture

"F" was the letter of the day on today's Sesame St. rerun.


(I have a broad range of interest)

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:28 | 4956478 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Thank Goodness We Have Plenty Of Dinasours To Convert To Oil...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:33 | 4956505 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

"At current rates of extraction." = brutally flawed analysis!

So zero economic growth?

Because you can't have economic growth without additional oil!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:42 | 4957037 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Turn that around.

It will tell you how the world needs to change.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 20:02 | 4957437 Keyser
Keyser's picture

And how many trillions of cubic meters of natural gas left on the planet? So the paradigm shifts, yawn... 


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:32 | 4956509 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Peak, bitchez.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:43 | 4957045 schnydz
schnydz's picture

...keeps moving dog!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:00 | 4956614 Lore
Lore's picture

Re: dinosaurs

I know you're being facetious, dredging up that old saw, but it seems very hard to shake among young people. Forbearance is a virtue.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:26 | 4956718 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Jokes abound -

a 300% increase in price ($38 to $109) from '04 til '13 produced a 5% increase in global production.  And available net exports are falling...this game is up. 

53 yrs...what a joke.  When the last 10yrs show a price of something triples but net supply barely changes while total demand continues rising...ummm, that may indicate there is a problem.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:32 | 4956753 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yep.   And all because we must have growth, growth, growth, growth, growth...

That's the real joke

Along with Chrysler just coming out with a 700 HP Challenger RT !!

Oh yeah!  Gotta have seven hundred fucking horsepower to go nowhere!!


Thorium bitchez!!


But moar likely we'll have plutonium used big time for a few hours to end the whole fucking joke.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:55 | 4956836 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

is plutonium really that bad?  chernobyl is the largest wildlife sanctuary in europe.  really, human encroachment is a far greater threat to the furry animals than a total nuclear meltdown

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:13 | 4956928 Apply Force
Apply Force's picture

And the biodiversity around Chernobyl is what in comparison to pre-melt down?  And how about the life-span of species in that "sanctuary" ? ? Birth defect rate pre- and post- melt down ? ? ?

Your lack of understanding in this coupled with your screen name is ironic.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:44 | 4957044 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

answer: prior to meltdown there were lots of people and no furry creatures.  after meltdown, all the peeps left and the furry creatures BOOMED with no known genetic defects.  current density of wolves is the exact same as other wolf sanctuaries.

oh yea, hiroshima and nagasaki have no excess radiation over background levels.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 18:06 | 4957120 logicalman
logicalman's picture


furry creatures BOOMED with no known genetic defects????

Animals living in contaminated areas in and around Chernobyl have suffered from a variety of side effects caused by radiation. Oxidative stress and low levels of antioxidants have had severe consequences on the development of the nervous system, including reduced brain size and impaired cognitive abilities. It has been found that birds living in areas with high levels of radiation have statistically significantly smaller brains, which has shown to be a deficit to viability in the wild.[17] Barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) that live in or around Chernobyl have displayed an increased rate of physical abnormalities compared to swallows from uncontaminated areas. Abnormalities included partially albinistic plumage, deformed toes, tumors, deformed tail feathers, deformed beaks, and deformed air sacks. Birds with these abnormalities have a reduced viability in the wild and a decrease in fitness. These effects are likely due to radiation exposure and elevated teratogenic effects of radioactive isotopes in the environment.[18]
Invertebrate populations (including bumblebees, butterflies, grasshoppers, dragonflies, and spiders) has significantly decreased. Currently, most radioactivity around Chernobyl is located in the top layer of soil, where many invertebrates live or lay their eggs. The reduced abundance of invertebrates can have negative implications for the entire ecosystem surrounding Chernobyl

I guess you don't read much.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 18:53 | 4957281 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

i hate reading.  but i meant today, and serious defects.  the birds are thriving out there today.  i repeat myself, but radioactive isotopes seem to be a wee bit overrated

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 03:29 | 4958216 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

No chance, ms, ZH-readers seem to be mainly anti-nuclear...


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:03 | 4956875 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c's picture

Why 700hp? Actually they are quoting 485 hp for the 2015, but the question is why the fuck not 700hp? The old musclecars had power but no handling or brakes. The new stuff has it all. What do you do on the weekends, play with your bullion? Fuck a herd of Priusii, Priuses, or whatever they call them.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 23:30 | 4957962 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Fuck oil.  For those trying to be independent, just grow an acre or two of bio diesel.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:44 | 4957049 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Quite clever from a government funding perspective.

If I was sitting in one of those every day, one day I'd just have to let 'er rip.

Large contribution to local government coffers occurs.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:54 | 4956844 americanreality
americanreality's picture

I assume you are referring to the cretin that goes by "knukles".  

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:15 | 4956396 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture




That's because what's good for the goose (us) is not good enough for the gander (.gov employees).

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:21 | 4956446 knukles
knukles's picture

Ya know, DoChen, here we are worrying about 53 years of oil.  I mean who gives a fuck, 53, 23, 103, whatever, when the world is totally being engulfed in war, pestilence, famine, disease, bio-chemical exterminaiton events, racial enmity, religious crusades of murder, debauchery, pillage and burning.  Indeed the whole fucking edifice of society's thin veneer of civilization is gone, peeled off and blown away and we're fucking around worrying about 53.3 years of oil.
Jesus God, man, the world is coming to an end and we're extrapolating shit out past our lives, behaving as if we can even control what's going to happen this evening when we pale into p[ure insignificance in the cosmic perspectives... when we should be considering the very nature of consciousness and time, but Oh Fucking No.....

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:25 | 4956463 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Buy gold?  Head for the hills?  Watch Netflix all day?  Hmm, inquiring minds want to know!


(moi? steps...)

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:28 | 4956744 BigJim
BigJim's picture

But a better class of claret, is my recommendation.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:29 | 4956480 jbvtme
jbvtme's picture

knucks...they're prepping your room at the detention center as we speak

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:42 | 4956549 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

A nice rant. Another example for my journal of those who got it.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:20 | 4956961 MEAN BUSINESS

"when we should be considering the very nature of consciousness and time, but Oh Fucking No....."

sounds positively ...luxurious 

How about considering the legally binding agreement all Nations are contemplating in Paris 17 months from now?

Too far out? Is that pre-frontal cortex thingy asleep?

Not that there is anything wrong with ranting ; )

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4956438 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

You mean the "do as I say, not as I do" crowd?  Come on Knuckles, everyone really wants to be an oligarch and you know it.


Long sharecropping, black markets and guillotine manufacturers...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:00 | 4956638 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Probably worth noting several things:

1) That's proven reserves.  100% of those won't be recovered.  The classification of numbers like this is always difficult.  So that's to the downside.

2) To the upside, there are undiscovered reserves out there.

3) is the most worthless source of ZH articles and 2nd place is a distant second in worthelessness (The Diplomat).  Here, in classic fashion we have this:

"In fact, during the past 10 years proven reserves have risen by 27 percent, or more than 350 billion barrels.

The increased amount of oil in the report include 900 million barrels detected in Russia and 800 million barrels in Venezuela. OPEC nations continue to lead the world by having a large majority of the planet’s reserves, or 71.9 percent."


Which is destroyed by this:

"Oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s . . .

In a measure of the success of drilling projects, the number of new oilfield developments is set to drop below 50 per year in 2014 and 2015, compared with an average of 75 per year over the past decade, according to Nicholas Green, analyst at London-based Bernstein Research.


"This represents the lowest level of activity since 1999, lower even than the oil price crash of 2008-09," he said."

The thing about these worthless articles is the data they quote is just so obviously undone if they simply read the damn newswire.  Reuters had that days ago.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:14 | 4956393 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



That means shale-oil extraction enterprises in the United States have more to offer than many first believed

Fuck it.  I am buying a monster truck.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:17 | 4956416 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Cross country shipping ain't as expensive as you might think. This guy has amazing inventory if you keep an eye on his site over time.

I was going to buy from him, but ended up with a deal I just couldn't pass up (ten year old, but extrememly low mileage ford with a v8 diesel).



Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:20 | 4956429 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



I will probably be dead in 53 years, so why not?


Year: 1989
Make: Chevrolet
Model: S-10
Color: Blue over Gray
Price: $39,900

  • 4.3 Litre V6 with 400HP
  • Balanced and blueprinted
  • Bored .30 over
  • Forged Pistons
  • 4-71 B.D.S blower
  • Dual 500 CFM carbs
  • Aluminum Be-Cool Radiator with dual electric fans
  • Set up for 102 Octane
  • Custom hoses w/AN fittings
  • Custom fuel tank

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4956457 Ariadne
Ariadne's picture

City: 5 MPG 

Highway: 3 MPG

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:27 | 4956477 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Is that because running over cars as your parking downtown INCREASES fuel mileage ?    LOL !!!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:47 | 4956567 Ariadne
Ariadne's picture

It takes a certain amount of room to use all 400 ponies...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:01 | 4956643 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

LOL !!   Gotcha !

It's the energy transfer from all the shifting back and forth from reverse to drive back to reverse again.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:21 | 4956723 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

definately no fat chicks allowed

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:34 | 4956766 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

They're too busy riding bicycles.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:54 | 4956846 espirit
espirit's picture

I like the MadMax version built on the 4x4 Expedition.

Alas, no linky.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 19:14 | 4957342 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture
Classic Car Lot Walk Around Pontiac Trans Am Chevy Olds 442 Ford Mercedes Youngtimer Classics

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:27 | 4956479 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Why not? Well for one thing it would make you look stupid. If you need another reason; about five years from now people situated on hilltops will be taking sniper shots at monsters like that, to general public approval.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:37 | 4956513 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



Well for one thing it would make you look stupid.

I won't look any more stupid than if I would have bought a Chevy Volt a few years ago. 

Besides, I can paint an American flag on it, and maybe a bald eagle, and then it will make me look patriotic.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:39 | 4956539 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Don't buy either one, put the money in your pocket (or buy gold) and you get to feel very quietly superior. And for all practical purposes, would be.

Plus nobody is sighting in on you with a .308 from 500 yards out.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:03 | 4956654 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

.300 Win Mag for the win at 2000 yards.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:20 | 4956720 pods
pods's picture

Not being familiar with that cartridge I checked the charts. That thing drops about 20 feet at 1000 yards (zero at 100).


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:40 | 4956787 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

<sigh>  My bad.....meant .300 WSM.

2000 yards would be difficult for sure....was joshing a bit on that one.

But 1000 yards.   well...check this out.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:48 | 4956813 pods
pods's picture

Well being a shotgunner for the most part seeing drop at 1000 yards is kinda foreign.  I could possibly shoot 1000 yards if a slug were to lodge into the ass of an elephant running away.

Insane yardages they can shoot though.  Saw a video of the Chey-tac (sp?) system and they warmed up at 900 yards and topped out over 2k.  Eek.

(web blocker stops me for checking out your link Jumbo)


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:10 | 4956911 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture's the text.

September 12th at the Original Pennsylvania 1000 Yard Benchrest Club (Williamsport) range Matt Kline set a new 10-shot Heavy Gun World Record with a 2.815?, 100-4X.

Breaking the 3? mark (for 10 shots) is big news in the 1K benchrest game. The existing IBS 10-shot, 1000-yard record is 3.044? set by Joel Pendergraft in 2009, while the NBRSA 10-Shot, 1000-yard record is 4.322? set by Dave Tooley in 2006. Counting this 100-4X target, Matt also set a new 6-Match Heavy Gun Score Aggregate of 99.000. With Williamsport Match 10 still to shoot, Matt could push the HG Score Agg even higher.

That was with a .300 WSM with a 210 grain bullet.  There were 4 in the bullseye circle with one on the X.  Two on the left of the square in which the bullseye resided in.  And the other 4 well within the ten ring on the left.

But what do you expect from a shoe-horning a .308 bullet into a fat stubby cartridge almost full of as much powder as in the longer .300 Win Mag that much closer to the primer hole.  It kicks though.  But it sure will scoot a boot downrange.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:25 | 4956975 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

LOL !!  Ditto on the elephant running away.  I'm more of a shotgunner myself.  I can't think of a better overall weapon for most uses than a 12 gauge.  From #9 shot to sabots....very versatile.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 20:25 | 4957509 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

stop playing DAYZ & go find a job kiddo.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:07 | 4956553 813kml
813kml's picture

You be big pimpin' dawg, but you gots to get some NOS set up on that rig to be a true playa.  I just slammed some on the Escalade and it makes the pigs disappear in the rear view mirror when they get too nosy about whatz in the packages I be deliverin'.  The ride's a bit stiff when you gots 50 inch rims though, any less rubber and I'd be a locomotive engineer.

It sure is amazin' what you can get with EBT.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:02 | 4956648 youngman
youngman's picture

Only a V6..whats that all this a greenie Monster truck..????

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:28 | 4956835 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



I think the whole point behind a monster truck is to make something small appear bigger, so a V6 makes sense from that perspective.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 19:23 | 4957359 smacker
smacker's picture

Does it have a rear view mirror?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 22:22 | 4957782 Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

"I will probably be dead in 53 years, so why not?"

All of the most important economic decisions appear to be made on that basis. The driving mechanisms are not merely the horizon of care that individual have, but moreover, the ways that the real world is controlled by lies backed by violence. Economic decisions depend upon the outcome of military conflicts. In the context of fighting, the short-term concerns tend to become all that matters.

One battle after another, the future of the world was directed in ways whereby the production of destruction controlled production. Cars with ridiculous amounts of horse power and gas consumption exist due to the importance of oil resources to war. It was the outcome of the wars that set up the culture the worshiped cars. The natural resources of the Planet Earth have been strip-mined, and mostly wasted, because it was primarily warfare that determined what civilization actually did, and therefore, the kind of culture which became dominate inside that context.

The attitudes that people had when they killed each other tended to become the attitudes that they had towards the natural world, and future generations. There was nothing that could actually stop people from burning through the world's natural resources as fast as possible, since the decisions to do so were primarily made in the military context, where the maximum power delivery was the main concern.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 18:05 | 4957117 greatbeard
greatbeard's picture

>> (ten year old, but extrememly low mileage ford with a v8 diesel).

Sounds like a 6.0 Powserstroke.  I hope for your sake it isn't.  The Powerstroke was a horrible and expremely problematic engine for Ford.  There's a reason there are a huge number of low milage Ford 6.0 Powerstroke trucks available at a low price.  They are low milage 'cause they won't run and they are low priced because there's no market for them. 

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:10 | 4956372 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

It is possible that we (like so many others in the past) have underestimated the ability of ingenuity and technology to once again save our bacon from the Malthusian nightmares.

I do not know this, but, it must be recognized as possible that Kuntsler is wrong, and that technology might be able to help save us after all.

And such technology would likely help more if .gov (Obama) stays out of our business.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:12 | 4956389 knukles
knukles's picture

Let His Highness fucking walk, too.
Be an example, lead from the front.
Why's he always riding a golf cart?
Get with Mooch's exercise program, cut out the burgers and pizza (Where he goes to cut in lines)


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:17 | 4956420 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Wha...?   Force His Highness and Her Wookieness have to do what we have to do?  Ack!  The horror!

But, if I have to, I can take my bike all 1.5 miles to work...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:07 | 4956892 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Managed 50 miles Saturday - Last 10 miles with a broken rib and bruised spleen.

First 40 were fun.

The ground jumped up and hit me.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:09 | 4956650 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Coal powered golf cart, odds are, and if they say no, they are lying.

Edit: oh and the big O is lance armstrong on a bike, so says the press cabal.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:16 | 4956412 centerline
centerline's picture

Outside chance.  Worth holding out some hope.  Generally, I think it will be a YMMV thing depending on where you are.  Some places are just going to get wiped out - others might do well actually.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4956440 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

My opinion (guess really) is that we will have to do it all to work our way out of this.  Some conservation, so alternative energy (but we have now seen beyond doubt that wind won't yield squat), more drilling, etc.

Higher prices for oil & gasoline seem to be certain, probably MUCH higher.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 18:13 | 4957146 logicalman
logicalman's picture

1.5×1022J total energy from the Sun that strikes the face of the Earth EACH DAY

2.4×1022 J     TOTAL estimated energy contained in the world's coal reserves as of 2010

So the earth receives about 2/3 of all known coal reseves EVERY DAY.

I'd say that gives humanity somethihng to work with, wouldn't you?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 20:31 | 4957519 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

no, coz it is free, so not monetizable.


even a 80% solar panel rendering ratio... once sold... remain battery.


the big lie is  solar is not a green energy, the shit u have to make to build battery is CO2 consuming more than keep going on oil, this is why war will occur for oil,


reserches proved that a oil car is less poluting than an electrical one, plus you can go 1000 km while electric one only 150.


so... fuck solar.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4956425 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Nature, not technology, has the fix for exponential population growth.



Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:38 | 4956527 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The grim reaper, stage left.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:53 | 4956596 greygoo
Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:09 | 4956901 logicalman
logicalman's picture

And Nature always wins in the end.

A good clue is human life span.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:08 | 4956673 samsara
samsara's picture

DoChen.   How ya doing?

Sorry, It ain't Kunstler.   

You are trying to Trick/Fool  the first 3 laws of thermodynamics.

You can hope.   But the cavlary ain't gonna show up.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:40 | 4956790 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

samsara, I am well, I hope you (and yours) are as well.

I am not an expert.  But, Malthus has not been right so far...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:10 | 4956908 logicalman
logicalman's picture

So far...............

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:26 | 4956981 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

On a long enough timeline.......

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 18:24 | 4957185 samsara
samsara's picture

We're good too thanks.

Malthus, Same could have been said about fiat money in 1970-1980's,

Ya gotta just extend the graph just a little more.....

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:40 | 4956542 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

I'll take any calls regarding peak oil / end of oil from an ICE member with a large block of salt, thanks...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:08 | 4956357 youngman
youngman's picture

The last year of that 53 will be interesting..pretty long lines at the ole gas station I bet...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:17 | 4956419 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Uhh, I doubt any of us plebes will see gas after about 30 years from now. It will likely be too expensive if any of this is accurate in the least, which I doubt it. 


Humans really need to stop trying to predct the future, the amount of irrationality and arrogance it developes causes too many problems. 

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:24 | 4956462 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

So, we should stop predicting the future to avoid being arrogant and irrational?

Last I checked, physics did a pretty good job of figuring out where a vw bug sized projectile might land when launched from a huge as gun. The breadth of modern technology is based on the ability to acurately predict results in various dimensions, including time.

Baby and bathwater sort of thing my friend.



Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:56 | 4956610 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Being able to understand how a mass will work under force is one thing, predicting the future by assuming how humans will behave is something entirely different. 


The later requires actual information, the former requires a positions in a university or at the Fed.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:50 | 4956830 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Maybe not.

In that year someone will publish another estimate saying another 53 years remain, even if they do not.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956360 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

BP shouldn't be trusted.  They're known to be Peak Oil Conspiracy Nuts....   sarc/off

Keep in mind this.  This won't be a full, wide open spigot gushing until the very last day.  These flow rates will be declining all the way through this 50 year period and beyond.

Now you know why the world is in the state it is in.  Now you know why wars are waging all along Muzzie-Land from Africa to Afghanistan.  Now you know why the world is awash in Fiat money via Global QEternity.

Peak Cheap Energy bitchezz.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:20 | 4956437 centerline
centerline's picture

Perfect storm scenerio.  From economics to energy, social complexity, etc.

At the lowest level it is all food and water of course.  Cheap energy holds it all together.  As energy gets less cheap on a relative basis, food and water start getting more expensive.  Everything else strains as a result.

I would think that governments fear an internal meltdown worse than anything else.  From such a perspective, what is happening in the world makes perfect sense.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:02 | 4956873 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Thank god we eat plastic and not real food. Plastic lasts forever, right?


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:41 | 4956545 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

Yep Jumbo. They say: no one knows how much.... bla bla. They know. TBTF knows.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:05 | 4956661 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

And they are positioning.  All you have to do is watch the Big Money.  Watch China VERY carefully as well.  Look how they are taking over Africa.  That's the Last Continent.....if you know what I mean.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956364 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Environmentalists everywhere cheer as they know Central Bank printing will not let this reality become seen in the market.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:57 | 4956595 easypoints
easypoints's picture

The "environmentalist" part aside, that really is the gist of it, isn't it? Every unit of GDP is linked to a unit of energy. You can't create something without energy. So, we use money as a proxy for labor an energy to be spent in the future. We can keep creating money, but how much energy can we create? We've dealt with this the past few centuries by discovering better sources of energy. But will we eventually strike out? I think you are hinting at a serious catch-22 we've created for ourselves. But no one will have seen it coming.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:56 | 4956599 easypoints
easypoints's picture

double post :(

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:56 | 4956600 easypoints
easypoints's picture

double post :(

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956365 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

Such methods are helping the United States, for example, to achieve energy independence.

ROTFL stop it, yer killin' me!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956366 power steering
power steering's picture

Yeah but my Jeep Wrangler will still be under extended warranty.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956368 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

How long will the water last?  My guess is much less than 53.3 years.

Water is the new oil.

And many wars will be fought for water.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:11 | 4956384 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Long water treatment investments?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4956449 sleigher
sleigher's picture


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:13 | 4956386 malek
malek's picture

I'm much more afraid we run out of sunlight before.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:31 | 4956507 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

And take a W.A.G. (wild ass guess) where water shortages and rights are coming to the fore.

It's a place between the Mediterranian and Jordan.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:59 | 4956633 samsara
samsara's picture

Well, Vegas 5-6 years and then a mass exodus.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:09 | 4956369 logicalman
logicalman's picture

It will be interesting to see what environmentally devastating methods will be used for the last few barrels.

Fortunately, I will have left the planet by then.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4956426 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

old geezers may be leaving the planet a lot sooner than they think if they simply plan on leaving this problem to the rest of us. 

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:13 | 4956924 logicalman
logicalman's picture

I contribute to the consumption of the black stuff as little as possibe.

I don't operate a debtmobile and I don't buy shit I don't need.

You've got me on the geezer bit, though.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:45 | 4957054 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

great, you're welcome to stick around while we purge the parasites

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:46 | 4956562 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Think butt straws with lots of suction!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:06 | 4956666 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

WOW....TMI.  LOL !

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:12 | 4956387 earnulf
earnulf's picture

"At current rates of extraction".

There is about a third of the worlds population in just China and India that are demanding more and more oil to keep up with the moderne society.

US Population 320 Million

Indian Popuation 1.1 Billion

Chinese Population 2.1 Billion.

53 years my you know what.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:16 | 4956413 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

"At current rates of extraction"

That's some serious what-if going on. These guys are whistling past the graveyard. They know full well extraction is going to fall off a cliff in about 5 years when they run out of places to drill and money to drill with.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:27 | 4956473 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"when they run out of places to drill and calories to drill with."  - FIXED.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:30 | 4956494 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Very true. Energy and money have become the same thing. In a few years everyone is going to understand exactly how this works.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:39 | 4956534 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

I've said for years....based on my own studies.....back of the envelope kinds of stuff.....that the year 2020 give or take a year is when the wheels REALLY fall off to the point that nobody can deny it.

After that.......shelter in place.  Before that......learn to grow your own food.....properly manage, service and shoot a firearm.....and make your place as energy efficient as possible.  Start with this.....insulate the shit out of it.....from the attic to the windows.  Use LED lights EVERYWHERE.  Use motion detected lightswitches so if you have kids who like dumbasses leave things on all the time.....wash EVERYTHING in cold water.....and turn that Thermostat up to 80. heard me.  I live in Florida so I know what this means.  Turn it up to 80.  If you live in the cold states......turn the heater down to 55.  Don't bitch.  You can always put on enough clothes to keep warm.  But here in can NEVER get naked enough to stay cool.

First and foremost.  Get your mind right.  Everybody else is going to be losing theirs.  Don't add to the chaos.

Hopefully see you on the other side.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:45 | 4956558 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

"that the year 2020 give or take a year is when the wheels REALLY fall off"

I am of the same opinion. Maybe sooner. We won't know the exact date except in hind-sight, of course, but yeah that's really close.

People, you've been warned. Make your peace and get your shit wired up tight, it's not going to be pretty and the ugly isn't going to be anything you expected.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:55 | 4956615 still kicking
still kicking's picture

Fuck that 80 degree nonsense, I'm going to soak up as much AC as my ass can take until they shut it off.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:15 | 4956696 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture's called increasing your cash flow.  If the system is eating away the value of your dollar....and your boss is not giving you a raise.....then stop spending what's left.  Keeping your crib like an ice-box is wasting money.  Use the savings to better prepare yourself......or buy more gold.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:58 | 4956623 samsara
samsara's picture

I'm with you Jumbotron.

2016-2020 You had BEST have your plan already implemented, Your beds fully productional, and have bought every (you won't see one of these for sale again) thing that might help you/yours during the transition.

Transition to...?     

A MUCH simplier Lifestyle,  with a MUCH LOWER overhead.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:39 | 4960783 still kicking
still kicking's picture

agreed, except AC, it's just one of those things you hold on to until the very end.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:16 | 4956942 logicalman
logicalman's picture

You have x amount of something

you use x/20 per anum

Not exactly complex math.

The whole article might just as well have said 2+2=4

The comments would have been less interesting though.


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:28 | 4956481 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

our consumption growth exceeds chinas and indias. we compete with them for new oil, imagine what immigration enforcement would do for our consumption, and emissions 

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:55 | 4956850 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Please don't post things without researching.

US (assuming you meant US) oil consumption has been declining for about 5 yrs.  Despite population gain.  But not sharply.

China and India consumption growth . . . behold, doom

Select China and India in the dropdown for oil (and believe it, only oil matters, only oil feeds you and ships things to create GDP)

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:19 | 4956951 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Why the world is so fucked.....

only oil feeds you and ships things to create GDP.

Only oil can feed 7 Billion

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:33 | 4956488 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Current rates do not cut it:


  • Standards of living are going up. More food is needed, more ag, more petrol inputs. 
  • More devices exist that use petrol.
  • Population is going up. More people to want this better food and better stuff.
  • ROEI is going down as the low hanging fruit has already been picked, it will cost more to get more.
  • As the rate of extraction accelerates, the down side of the curve, once the peak has been reaced, may very well look more like a drop off, and not be as gradual as the trip up, because of the fact that we have so many things that use oil and because of the increase in living standards and population. Said another way, population increased gradually as did the oil consumption. Population will he high, all sucking the stuff down at the peak. When production starts to decline, the suckers will still be sucking together on less oil.

Current rates of extraction have never held steady. That this report would use that as a base line tells us something important-- these fuckers are not trying to be honest about this aspect of the report, why should we trust the rest.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:30 | 4956752 magnetosphere
magnetosphere's picture

and even at current rates their reserves lifespan is not close to believable

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:58 | 4956859 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Welcome to, please leave any food or drink at the door.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:13 | 4956388 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   lol  We're Sorry...

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:14 | 4956399 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If it's coming from the oil industry then you can cut the expectation in half.

These guys are already struggling to survive. Selling hard assets to make dividends, pulling out of fracking plays to cut losses, cutting cap-ex.

They're toast.

Talking up their book out beyond the lifespan of anyone listening is just a last ditch effort to avoid a fund manager stampede for the exits.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:38 | 4956529 Zerozen
Zerozen's picture

They're toast, but oil is a required input in an industrial society, so if the drilling crash happens, supply will fall, price goes up, and the drilling comes back again. As long as oil is needed the price will just rise to meet demand.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:51 | 4956585 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

The price is in-elastic. Nothing you think you know about markets applies here. We're at the top already, anything more than about $110/bbl pushes the global economy over the edge into resession and then devouring depression. China might have to buy at that price (they are totally screwed up the ass sideways if they don't) but it will bleed them dry quickly, because they cannot pass that on to consumer nations without suffering a catastrophic collpase in trade.

There is no economic solution. Choose a way out, you just hit a different kind of wall later. This is not a maze with an exit you have to find, it's a trap we will not escape from except that our entire economic system and way of life utterly perishes.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:16 | 4956702 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"These guys are already struggling to survive. Selling hard assets to make dividends, pulling out of fracking plays to cut losses, cutting cap-ex."

You know one of the best ways to keep up with that?   Watch for mergers.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:15 | 4956401 Essential Intel...
Essential Intelligence's picture

So That's why they've just orchestrated the Israel-Gaza war. Could it have something to do with those offsore Gas fields near Gaza ? You bet !



Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:18 | 4956423 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Nobody is going to make an expensive (meaning bullets in the air) move unless there is a high chance of a liquidity event afterwards.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:15 | 4956402 The_Dude
The_Dude's picture

Global Warming (if you believe the silly thing) = FIXED

Tell all your lib friends to stop worrying and just wait a bit....

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:22 | 4956458 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

It's being discussed. The fear though is that attention just moves away from oil and back onto coal as humanity fights tooth and nail against the out flowing tide of energy availability. We'll revert as much industry and transportation as we can to electricity, and fuck anyone doesn't like it or can't cope.

But falling back to coal destroys us outright. Humanity can just throw itself away after that because we will likely never recover.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:28 | 4956485 BobTheSlob
BobTheSlob's picture

Recover from what? Too much CO2 in the atmosphere? CO2 is good, so is O2.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:46 | 4956564 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

plants crave it

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:51 | 4956588 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

uh..."it's got electrolytes"? oh...sorry...Brawndo

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:29 | 4956487 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Well, as always, we've got to ask the question:   what's the most profitable solution?    Yup,  coal.   Cha-ching.  

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:34 | 4956515 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Oh I agree. and BAU, same equation. And keeping the muppets at home watching TV and going to Micky D's for their daily obesity.

It's all about money.

All about extracting the last thin dime from the last hopeless slob making the last trip to Walmart in the last running SUV burning the last gallon of fuel to get his mitts on the last carton of cheesepuffs.

And when the last thin dime drops with a clink into the cash drawer and everything shutters for the last time ever, the bankers will cry real tears but only because they really liked the sound of falling money.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 17:33 | 4956999 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

And someone will be watching it happen via a hidden camera and the corks will go a flyin!

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:15 | 4956403 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

BP released this report?????

What do they want? Pardon my skepticism. 

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:17 | 4956421 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yes, but there are thousands of years of coal and natural gas......


(albeit at a much slower burn rate...)

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 23:57 | 4958017 UselessEater
UselessEater's picture

achieved by population decimation of the masses whilst not inhibiting the lifestyle of TPTB....lets steal/patent/hide technologies that revolutionize energy so a few can access the jet set lifestyle and feed their profitable crony-multi-national corporations while the majority can dream of cake.

bet Branson's tourists space flights will not be terminated due to an imminent end of fuel


Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4956430 Black Forest
Black Forest's picture

No problem as I will be gone west in 53.2 years.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:19 | 4956432 pakled
pakled's picture

Whatever happened to that there abiotic theory of oil production?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:24 | 4956465 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Wasn't much of a theory, more like a narcotic-induced hallucination.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:48 | 4956572 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes.  Where is any credible evidence?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:53 | 4956597 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Evidence? Forget evidence. Where is the oil?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:55 | 4956612 Seize Mars
Seize Mars's picture

Actually a lot of it. But since when is fiat money tied to truth?

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 16:49 | 4956826 malek
malek's picture

They forgot to mention that abiotic production rate is one millionth (or less) of current consumption rate.

Mon, 07/14/2014 - 15:21 | 4956441 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Every ultra large corporation has an agitation and propaganda department.


BP has one also.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!