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Full-Time Pain: Mort Zuckerman Says Most Americans "Wouldn't Call This A Recovery"
When we first brought the transformation of the American economy into a part-time worker society in 2010, many scoffed and suggested that when the 'recovery' really gets going the temp jobs will all be morphed into high-paying full-time jobs. That hasn't happened, and in fact, as we noted most recently, it's got worse.
As Mort Zuckerman blasts in his rampagingly honest WSJ Op-Ed, "Most people will have the impression that the 288,000 jobs created last month were full-time. Not so." And more directly, "most Americans wouldn't call this an economic recovery." The lack of breadwinners working full time is a burgeoning disaster that we have covered extensively. There are 48 million people in the U.S. in low-wage jobs, resulting, as Zuckerman concludes, "Faith in the American dream is eroding fast."
As Mort Zuckerman rages - echoing our analysis...
There has been a distinctive odor of hype lately about the national jobs report for June. Most people will have the impression that the 288,000 jobs created last month were full-time. Not so.
The Obama administration and much of the media trumpeting the figure overlooked that the government numbers didn't distinguish between new part-time and full-time jobs.
On July 2 President Obama boasted that the jobs report "showed the sixth straight month of job growth" in the private economy. "Make no mistake," he said. "We are headed in the right direction." What he failed to mention is that only 47.7% of adults in the U.S. are working full time.
There are numerous reasons for this but the most recent and most-telling is Obamacare...
But there is one clear political contribution to the dismal jobs trend. Many employers cut workers' hours to avoid the Affordable Care Act's mandate to provide health insurance to anyone working 30 hours a week or more.
The unintended consequence of President Obama's "signature legislation"? Fewer full-time workers. In many cases two people are working the same number of hours that one had previously worked.
As Zuckerman concludes...Most Americans wouldn't call this an economic recovery.
Yes, we're not technically in a recession as the recovery began in mid-2009, but high-wage industries have lost a million positions since 2007. Low-paying jobs are gaining and now account for 44% of all employment growth since employment hit bottom in February 2010, with by far the most growth—3.8 million jobs—in low-wage industries. The number of long-term unemployed remains at historically high levels, standing at more than three million in June. The proportion of Americans in the labor force is at a 36-year low, 62.8%, down from 66% in 2008.
Part-time jobs are no longer the domain of the young. Many are taken by adults in their prime working years—25 to 54 years of age—and many are single men and women without high-school diplomas.
Why is this happening? It can't all be attributed to the unforeseen consequences of the Affordable Care Act. The longer workers have been out of a job, the more likely they are to take a part-time job to make ends meet.
The result: Faith in the American dream is eroding fast.
The feeling is that the rules aren't fair and the system has been rigged in favor of business and against the average person. The share of financial compensation and outputs going to labor has dropped to less than 60% today from about 65% before 1980.
...
The great American job machine is spluttering. We are going through the weakest post-recession recovery the U.S. has ever experienced, with growth half of what it was after four previous recessions. And that's despite the most expansive monetary policy in history and the largest fiscal stimulus since World War II.
That is why the June numbers are so distressing. Five years after the Great Recession, more than 24 million working-age Americans remain jobless, working part-time involuntarily or having left the workforce.
We are not in the middle of a recovery. We are in the middle of a muddle-through, and there's no point in pretending that the sky is blue when so many millions can attest to dark clouds.
* * *
Nothing to add but "bravo"
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47%!!! Paging Mitt Romney!!!!
"Don't call it a come back, it's been here for years..."
"it's gonna knock you out..."
"Yellen said knock you out..."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vimZj8HW0Kg
There's a reason they call it the American Dream.
<hat tip George, RIP>
Don't forget what he said about our education system too. Our rulers don't want a smart populace capable of critical thought. A properly educated society would look at this not as a 'muddle through' as he describes it, but as a nearly decade long depression. Use a realistic inflation number, all those 2-4% growth numbers from every GDP print in the past 7 or 8 years gives you zero or negative growth. A 'muddle through' would be an improvement
The solution is simple!!! Declare a 30 hour week full time employment!!!!!!! Fixed!!!
Asset stripping, that will help America, ya, asset strippers, better yet, just plain ole strippers, but I digress.
Bugs Bunny Bugs Bunny RA RA RA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOuDjdN2csw (0:27)
piss off goldilocks
Steve LiesMan would take exception to this contray opinion....
who you gonna believe???
As a business owner, I can still not get customers to pay 2008 labor prices as much as we are trying. And we are located in an area that is busy when compared ot other areas around the country. If you are competing labor wise against mostly those that are not playing by the rules, you are still stuggling...hence the middle class labor market will continue to struggle until some law and order is once again is restored across this country. .
What we've seen in Europe is that when eastern europeans flooded the job market when the borders opened, there was a hughe influx of people willing to work below minimum wage, off the grid and with a total lack of insurencd and taxes.
They killed a serious amount of jobs and profits dropped all over.
Now you've got this influx of mexicans and it will result in the same thing. They'll work 12 hours a day, for half the minimum wage and no clue what obama care is.
Thhe true horror still needs to happen to you guys.
So if you think this recovery is bad, just wait untill you see the next depression.
"Now you've got this influx of mexicans..."
Not now, but the last 30+ years.
Your retarded if you pay more than $8 an hour for labor here , and for $8 they better have a skill (can program a sprinkler system, cut & set tile, something...)
Back when I worked 12 hour days I told everyone I was working half days.
You can at least compensate by having your dental work done for less in East Europe, by skilled dentists there...
And why wouldn't they work for less? They don't have to pay for food, medical, dental, or insurance of any kind. They can get a car loan on a signature - default on it - and turn around and get another one a few months later (this from a friend who is a repo-man). They get section 8 housing and free education. Hell, our DMV requires me to bring 6 forms of ID - including a passport - to renew my license - but illegals just walk in and get a license - no questions asked. There was an email going around a while back that showed how someone working illegally here in the US is actually *better* off than a person who plays by the rules - and I believe it.
I think it's a mistake to call it all an "accident" or incompetence that this is happening - there are no accidents. The illegal immigrant flow could be shut off in a heartbeat - no problem - just by shutting off the free shizzle and enforcing the laws that exist - but the PTB like the fact that they're siphoning off much of the middle class' financial breathing room. Cloward and Piven must be proud that their plan is being executed so flawlessly.
But, from the consumer perspective, shouldn't I want people who will labor for less than some arbitrarirly defined minimum wage?
Hire more illegals--that's the ticket! [/s]
Why worry? They call it "funemployment" for a reason, and all because of that "wealth effect."
Just shoot some dice with those EBT cards and unemployment benefits and try to win it big time!
That's the "Murikan dream" isn't it?
Sort of begs the question as to why Zuck, Peggy Noonan, etc al. voted for the drug store communist in the first place. Oh yeah, they wanted 'change'.
I suppose for the same reason they support 'immigration' reform that will flood the country with 3rd world trash and drive down wages and jobs even further for the unfortunates described in his snivelling op ed peice.
"Sort of begs the question as to why Zuck, Peggy Noonan, etc al. voted for the drug store communist in the first place."
its a big club...and they have found out they aint in it.
Well, let's admit the only change Romney would have brought to the White House is a change in skin colour. Same change that Obama brought to the White House back in 2009, at that.
ObamaCare, after all, was a GOP plan from the 1990s so they can't really complain, can they?
Obama's been snoopin' more than Bush, GitMo is stil steaming along and Obama has been bombing more brown people and Muslims than Bush ever did...
Honestly, anyone who didn't see right through Obama in 2008 was a fucking idiot. Of course, there were many leftists (communists) who knew exactly what he was and voted for him because of it. I am also convinced that many people who say they voted for him simply didn't vote or are lying about how they did vote. And that includes Zuckerman and Noonan.
Well, those of us with FT jobs should take a moment of silence to recognize our fortunate we are!
Another probable result of Obamacare will be high levels of unemployment of premenopausal females. A company can save a lot of money if they don't have to pay for birth-control or abortions.
Get 'em back in the kitchen where they belong!
You have a kitchen? What a wealthy SOB!
Marvin The Martian In The 3rd Dimension (1997-HQ).mp4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meZDEjhV7rE (13:08)
Duck dodgers The fowl friend (full episode!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysELY4MXrcA (12:47)
ohh, piss off again non-contributing wanker.
Its a little late now Mort, you promoted the prick.
"Detroit has been obliterated." I don't understand what all this "in the future" stuff is all about. We've got a couple hundred more of those coming...well, we jus had Portugal actually.
That would be THE ENTIRE COUNTRY OF PORTUGAL.
This debt reset has been well underway doe over a year now.
"Long smoking dope" as reality (no opinion necessary) itself has taken a breather.
Wouldn't seem to be the case with that Iron Dome thingy though.
"Detroit has been obliterated." I don't understand what all this "in the future" stuff is all about. We've got a couple hundred more of those coming...well, we jus had Portugal actually."
Victor Davis Hanson had a good rant on that:
"Meanwhile, as Obama has refused to enforce immigration law, the result is chaos.
Tens of thousands of children are flooding across our border illegally, on the scent of Obama’s executive-order amnesties. Advocates of open borders, such as progressive grandees Mark Zuckerberg and Nancy Pelosi, (Edit: The Wall Street Journal & Adelson I might add)... assume that these impoverished Third World children will not enroll in the private academies attended by their children or grandchildren, or need housing in one of their vacation estates, or crowd their specialists’ waiting rooms. They do not worry about the effects of illegal immigration on the wages of low-income Americans. Dealing first-hand with the ramifications of open borders is for unenlightened, illiberal little people."
Spot on.
"Obama’s economic legacy is rarely appreciated. He has institutionalized the idea that unemployment between 6 and 7 percent is normal, that annual deficits over $500 billion reflect frugality, that soaring power, food, and fuel costs are not proof of inflation, that zero interest rates are the reward for thrift, that higher taxes are always a beginning, never an end, and that there is no contradiction when elite progressives — the Obamas, the Clintons, the Warrens — trash the 1-percenters, while doing everything in their power to live just like them."
I'd say that about covers it.
As soon as Reid, Adelson, Pelosi, Zuckerman, Obama, the entire board of the Wall Street Journal, Schumer etal starts building housing for "poor central american children" on Martha's Vinyard and IN THEIR OWN BACKYARD they can then come to me and ask for amnesty.
Seems like Mort is still trying to hedge when he keeps on talking about side effects and
"unforeseen consequences of the Affordable Care Act"
Most reasonable people saw this coming a mile away. Leftists always think the world is static and people/organizations will not seek alternatives.
if your want full time work, move to china.
muddle through? ha ha. Talk about a lying sack of shit. This is an unwind. A liquidation.
Remember folks, check your sources. Use your own brain. Be skeptical. If it doesn't pass the sniff test, dig deeper.
The MSM is full of shit. 99.9% bullshit at this point.
Within the last year Delta was looking to hire 100 flight atendants and they had 20,000 applicatnts. Even crappy min wage work at less then 30 hours a week, such a restuarant hostess often times have 100's of applicants.
I don't even know where to look anymore... My retirement is GONE!
I believe McDonald's confirmed that in one year they had 69000 open positions for which they received over a million applicants.
Watch out for tall buildings and power tools, Mort...
Give me a break. That was the usual con job.
It's a perpetual recovery. lol
.
Nothing is going up except national debt!
'
'
That's because all the jobs went over to China, you ninnies!
And cue the robotics revolution! in 5-4-3-2-1 years…
Welcome to forever unemployment!
•?•
V-V
Why bother automating (I'm an unemployed mechanical engineer that specialized in automation and robotics) when your target markets have no money to spend?
This is why Santelli's message today was sort of incomplete. Why is liquidity flooding into financial speculation and not CapEx? Because those who determine CapEx realize it's flushing money down the toilet to cater to the ever smaller number of consumers.
There's TONS of demand for production in places like Detroit; they just don't have the incomes to buy because they don't have jobs. So why on earth would executives borrow money to expand production???
If we as a People won't pour into the streets like in so many other nations, then the result is a foregone conclusion. What is wrong with us?
Create the solution, then create the crisis, then transform the nation. As he lets it rip now,, you will see the country torn apart as is the intended purpose and usage of the wedge theory.
For years ZH’ers have endlessly ranted on how the ‘New Normal’ must fail. But, so far bears and short sellers have been taught a painful and expensive lesson. The economic realities you see are here to stay, and more stimuli to come, much more; the ignorant masses demand government takes care of them. They will easily forget there was ever anything different. Why work, when government will provide your basic necessities, like the newest Air Jordans, a Cadillac SUV, an HDTV, I-Phone, chips, soda and beer. Let the illegals do the backbreaking work for low pay. Win-Win for the oligarchs and it keeps the peace.
There will likely be:
* Zero, or near-zero rates for decades.
* No qual loans for anyone who can fog a mirror
* Ten, then fifteen year auto loans
* Fifty, then one-hundred year mortgages, with government underwriting. Looser lending standards
then partial loan forgiveness.
* Enormous Fed money creation, more than any of us can probably imagine. And that’s a lot.
* Massive government deficit spending, beyond anything seen so far. Especially in defense.
* More student loans, and expanded loan forgiveness programs.
* Hugely expanded government (read job programs), new highways, bridges, and more wars.
* No austerity budget, ever. That would cause immediate collapse. Millions now demand everything be given to
them. The deficit will grow beyond $24 Trillion.
* Much more immigration, legal and illegal. The oligarchs want new customers and cheap labor. “Grow or Die!”
* Expanded “free” health care for every disabled 400 lb person riding around “free” on electric carts.
* More and more part-time jobs and still fewer high-paying jobs in manufacturing.
* A Silicon Valley meltdown and Fed and government intervention. “Too big to fail”.
They have to stall total economic collapse. There is NO way back. The oligarchs aren’t stupid; they know what’s needed to prevent civil unrest in the cities. If things again deteriorate, billionaire banker bailouts will begin anew, guaranteed. Janet will do everything possible to prevent another meltdown and keep the plutocratic economic structure intact. The Fed wants the Dow at 20k+. Fundamentals do not matter when the Fed is committed to supporting the markets. Bad news is good news, and good news is great news. How can you fight their total commitment to pump up millions of individual 401K’s and retirement funds? Millions have put every penny they have into stocks. They will all fail without full-time Fed intervention. The Fed likely has worst-case scenario schemes way beyond anything seen so far. If they have to they will add a trillion $ to their balance sheet and buy equities outright.
The propaganda machine will spin the data to show improvement in employment, expanding GDP, and no inflation. If sentiment turns ugly they are ready to put out false Facebook posts, Tweets, etc, informing the brain-dead how great things are, “I’m buying stocks!” “Me too, Cramer says they are way undervalued”, “I heard the Fed has guaranteed the markets!” “Goldman says buy everything on any dip!” “My broker says a friend at the Fed told him GDP will be 7%, buy stocks!”
You are foolish to fight this, unless you have really deep pockets and can wait 5-10 years for the collapse, or have some knowledge that we are about to start tossing nukes back and forth.
The Nobody Gets Out Alive Casino. The rake is your kids.
When we're finally convinced that there's no way things can change, Mother Nature is yawning and stretching from her deep sleep.
"the American jobs machine is spluttering" because 0bamao put Hopey-Changey sugar in the gas tank!
Way back in early 2013 in a oped titled "Brace For an Avalanche of Unfunded Debt" Mort Zuckerman, the editor of U.S. News & World Report and the publisher of the New York Daily News warned;
We are on a trajectory of cumulative fiscal deficits that cannot possibly be sustained. We have gone from being the world's largest creditor nation, with no foreign debt at the end of World War II, to the world's largest debtor, with roughly half of our public debt held by foreign lenders. Over the last four years, our national debt has grown by more than $5 trillion to over $16 trillion.More on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/01/zuckerman-says-debt-avalanche.html