Every Time Is Different, And The Same

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

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Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:07 | 4960503 hedgeless_horseman
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"Now, let me throw you for a bit of a loop.

 

'Stock market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals.'

 

No shit? 


Fri, 09/03/2010 - 11:41hedgeless_horseman

Fundamental analysis? Earnings? Technical analysis? Charts? We don't
have a prayer when Ben has his finger on the button under the table.

You can take the ghosts of Graham, Dodd, Edwards, and McGee, as well as every CFA on the planet to manage a portfolio. I'll take one insider at 33 Liberty and my performance will wipe the men's room floor with your's.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ecri-declines-again-pass-below-double-dip-10-threshold-again#comment-562073

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:10 | 4960525 gh0atrider
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gh0atrider almost wants to go out and buy an index just because he know's that will finally bring this mf'er down.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:40 | 4960600 NoDebt
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Last year, I publicly dared the market to go down.  I even used reverse-sarcasm and said it never would again.

It didn't work.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:30 | 4960747 max2205
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Dump all you want....the Fed will buy....look at today....it was close.  Easily could have flushed except for you know who buying

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:39 | 4960780 financialrealist
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I agree, historical analysis and charts are worthless, with central banks buying, what happens next is anyone's guess. For all readers, my question is how long can they keep it up, with every bank doing the same thing, how long can this continue.? I'm asking, because i dont know anymore.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:12 | 4960527 Obchelli
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CNBC Just had headline: " Banking earnings shine"

 

What?

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:24 | 4960557 Ness.
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Marketwatch:  Yahoo misses target, but shares are up.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:32 | 4960580 NidStyles
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Junior miners have been routed. 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:37 | 4960594 aVileRat
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In a rational world, sell side & buyside would be asking if Marissa is worth her 300 million in options/compensation given YAHOO ex-Alibaba is actually grown -20% in 2 years, while she has consistently came in at the top of all compensation metrics, while pushing out good workers for ego projects.

Come to think about it, half the tech world should be off massive given the slowing growth in cloud & mobile micro-transactions. who are still mostly negative gross margins ex-stock options & accounting gimmicks.

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:19 | 4960553 disabledvet
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It's not enough to argue emotions when "the only emotion being argued is euphoria" (and it's malcontents.)

I agree...euphoria is always followed by depression...but one cannot argue that euphoria therefore does not exist.

The "safety play" is everywhere and always with the data. An investing thesis to be true must be backed by the actual "something" that is argued "has happened in the past and thus will happen going forward." (Bakken shale et al.)

Fuel cells had an epic rally today. On no news? Obviously not. (Fuel cells have been around since the 1890's.) it's the sheer size and scale of the production of natural gas production from whence hydrogen can be derived thus providing the "fuel" for the fuel cell.

Unlike lithium ion batteries (which are reaching maturity in truly spectacular fashion here) fuel cells have been a mature technology for well over a decade now.

This is highly disruptive to the internal combustion world...a world that has been with us...been us actually...since the 1890's.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:31 | 4960573 NidStyles
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Fuel cells are going no where fast, and I don't mean that just literally.

 

If you want the tech for the future it's EV's and Hybrids.  

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:11 | 4960690 aVileRat
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Yeah, until you realize hybrids have twice the problems of a single drivetrain and half the full life-cycle of a conventional oil/electric platform.

Fuel cells have been the new thing for as long as solar. Unlike solar, nothing has changed with their tech, which still suffers from temperature / collision explosions + horrible replacement costs for bad packs. If you want to aruge this, go buy some Ballard Power at 50 bux.

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:10 | 4960520 Yen Cross
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  How do headlines like this make it through editing? Bloomturd and Reuters have zero credibility... I saved the 1st 4 comments in the screenshot.

  http://i.imgur.com/xERsJL0.png

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:12 | 4960528 TideFighter
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because, Obama. 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:33 | 4960583 gcjohns1971
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"while "this time is not different" it is also "not the same.""

 

 This distinction without a difference passes as analysis?

I don't care how many times an imaginary fairy farts when riding a unicorn, nor whether the author imagines their aroma is of fairy-dust or rainbow grass.

The only SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE betwee this round of money-printing insanity and all the rest is the volume of bills produced and the politician pictured on them.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:33 | 4960585 buzzsaw99
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zirp 4evah means that this isn't a problem and never will be

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 17:55 | 4960648 Dr. Engali
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It's almost as if these people never heard of the fed and zirp

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:05 | 4960667 Ban KKiller
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Algos don't care! Tuesday finished up!

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:08 | 4960680 sof_hannibal
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risk in capital structure should vary inversely with business risk and volatility

paging Michael Milken

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:23 | 4960726 Ricky Roma
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I didn't know the S&P was around in 1871...

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 18:25 | 4960735 Quinvarius
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Stocks need fresh money to move.  The perception of an end to QE is all it takes to execute this market with extreme prejudice.  It did its little last pump, as I have seen so often, in the face of the most horrid trend killing news.  That is "arranged", using some other people's money, to get the connected people out.  Then the pump and dump ends with a crash.  This is just like when Steve Jobs died and AAPL started losing market share.  AAPL soared for a little while.  Then they kicked the crap out of it.  That counter intuitive pop is not some market mechanic of buy the bad news.  It is arranged.  Just like the last few months on inducies have been "arranged".  No free money and this thing has no hope.  When central banks and soverign funds announce they are in for 29 trillion, and you should come in because the water is fine, that is bait you don't want to take.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 20:42 | 4961128 Anonymole
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This "emotional blood letting" of the next market plunge, are you saying it doesn't need a reason to start? Just the indication of a reason, the sneeze of a reason? And then the contagion it caught and the exit illness invades us all?

But the trigger must be something no? Yellen and her big mouth maybe? Yeltsin selling massive numbers of bonds? South Asia Sea conflict? ISIS crippling Iraq's oil production? Something has to trigger the panic.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 06:41 | 4961959 AdvancingTime
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Like the reasons given each day for stocks going ever higher the reason can be anything we make it. My favorite example, people still debate whether it was the policies of FDR or WWII that brought us out of the great depression.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 06:36 | 4961955 AdvancingTime
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A 20-year data set is indeed to short. I contend this cycle started in the early 1970s and saw a major reset when interest rates went through the roof in 1980 to halt inflation. Over the last few years economic policy has become far less stable and unsustanable.

We may soon be forced to face our economic Armageddon. The forces that have driven stock markets ever-higher and upward may be beginning to wane. Many markets became distorted years ago when QE and super low interest rates hit the economy in an effort to lessen many of the missteps of recent years.

This has been more helpful in holding up the underlying value of assets and derivatives than helping to repair a wounded economy. QE has up to now stopped an implosion of derivatives including the resulting contagion and shock that would have spread throughout the financial system. Unfortunately the economy has not fared as well as these asset prices and in many ways these policies have harmed Main Street. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/facing-our-economic-armageddon.ht...

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 06:56 | 4961971 AdvancingTime
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Society has been pouring such a large  percentage of wealth into intangible products or goods such as stocks. If faith drops in these intangible "promises" and money suddenly flows into tangible goods seeking a safe haven inflation will soar. Like many of those who study the economy I worry about the massive debt being accumulated by governments and the rate that central banks have expanded the money supply.

The timetable on which economic events unfold is often quite uneven and this supports the possibility of an inflation scenario. A key issue being one of timing. If the price of gas jumps to $8 a gallon overnight do you buy gas and not make your car payment or stop driving the twenty miles to work? Answer, it could be months before your car is repossessed so you buy gas.

 It is important to remember that debts can go unpaid and promises be left unfilled. If this happens where does it  leave us? Chaos and major disruption would result from such a scenario. As we have seen from the economic crisis of 2008 and following many other unsettling developments legal actions can continue to drag on for years.  More in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/inflation-seed-of-economic-chaos....

 

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