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Meanwhile In Europe: Juncker Approved, Hague Out, Lord Hill To Brussels: What Does It Mean?

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From OpenEurope

Juncker approved, Hague out, Lord Hill to Brussels: what does it mean?

This morning and last night saw three developments with importance for the UK’s Europe debate:

  • William Hague resigned as Foreign Secretary, replaced by Phillip Hammond, with the Cabinet becoming more Eurosceptic overall,
  • In nominating Lord Hill – the current leader of House of Lords – as the UK’s European Commissioner, Number 10 prioritised a ‘fixer’ and avoiding by-election over sending a heavy-hitter,
  • MEPs approved Jean-Claude Juncker as European Commission President by 422 votes to 250, marking the starting point of a more politicised European Commission.

What does this mean?

The reshuffle: The Cabinet has clearly taken a more Eurosceptic turn. In Philip Hammond, the UK has a Foreign Secretary who has said he would vote to leave the EU if it does not reform. In itself this is not a radical position; the logic of the Conservative position has always been that advocating an 'in' vote is dependent on achieving reform and Cameron himself has said a UK exit would be "imaginable". However, the key question is the threshold for staying in - how much needs to change for a Tory government to advocate an ‘In’ vote – and although Hammond has not set out his own red lines, he undoubtedly has a higher threshold than Hague.

In that sense, Hammond's appointment sends a clear message both at home and abroad - reform is not just desirable but fundamental to the UK's EU membership. On one hand, Hammond’s appointment may make it harder to meet the threshold , but the flip-side is that any ‘In’ endorsement by Hammond would carry more weight than one by Hague. However, it’s far from clear that Hammond will stay on as Foreign Secretary after the elections in any case so this is very much about pre-election position.  

In terms of the broader picture, the centre of gravity around the cabinet table has shifted in a more Eurosceptic direction. Ken Clarke – the last heavy hitting pro-integration Tory – loses his position as Cabinet Minister without portfolio, Michael Fallon has been promoted to Defence Secretary, while Dominic Grieve – a staunch defender of the European Convention on Human Rights – has been replaced as Attorney General by Jeremy Wright. The latter move in particular suggests that the Conservatives could be gearing up to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights. However, the enforced departure of Environment Secretary Owen Paterson has slightly counter-balanced this shift.  

Lord Hill’s nomination: David Cameron has clearly let other considerations trump sending the highest profile candidate to Brussels. In particular, the Tory leadership was absolutely adamant it had to avoid a by-election for fear of losing political momentum ahead of the general election. Therefore, it had a very small pool to choose from, with the fundamental problem being that the Tories have not been a party of government for some time, meaning they did not have many heavy hitters floating around outside the Commons. Lord Hill is clearly an experienced political operator who is highly rated amongst colleagues and has considerable PR skills. He has also worked at the heart of government, including as Chief of Staff to John Major, during which he was involved in negotiating the Maastricht Treaty. Still, Cameron is in a similar position to where Gordon Brown was in 2009, when Brown appointed Catherine Ashton – who also was the leader of the House of Lords and unknown outside Westminster. What’s different is that Number 10 has prioritised what it calls a ‘fixer’ who can work the corridors in Brussels, seeing that as the best way to get the Commission onside in crucial areas such as rules on access to benefits for EU migrants and trade liberalisation. This was something that Gordon Brown clearly neglected and, to be fair, something sorely needed. If Number 10 is right, the nomination could still prove a success – but it will no doubt be heavily criticised until then.  

Will Lord Hill get a top job?

The chances of the UK securing one of the key portfolios in the next European Commission – internal market, competition or trade - have worsened but have not been completely squashed. First, in a Commission filled with former and even current foreign ministers and prime ministers, Lord Hill will struggle to compete on merit. Secondly, his CV doesn’t easily lend itself to one of these portfolios. He founded and sold a PR firm and has experience from across governmental departments but no clear ‘economic portfolio’ type experience.  Thirdly, he is not a woman, which would have been one way for the UK to massively boost its chances for a good job. Having said, it’s too early to jump to conclusions, not least since several portfolios – included internal market - are expected to be broken up, making the job allocation unusually unpredictable. (Further Reading on the Open Europe blog: Who is Lord Hill?)

Juncker’s approval: MEPs today voted by 422 votes to 250, with 47 absentions to approve Juncker as the next European Commission President. With the backing of both MEPs and EU leaders, the debate moves on the other top jobs with the European Council President – who will preside over potential EU-UK renegotiations – a key position. The vote - via a secret ballot - was in many ways a formality but the relatively wide margin in favour of Juncker will likely reinforce his perceived mandate to make the European Commission, as he put it, “very political”. Today marks the starting point of that.

 

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Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:36 | 4958692 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Juncker’s approval: MEPs today voted by 422 votes to 250"

not bad for a smoker, a drinker and a straight talker. no, he is not a cowboy, he is the new chief of the eu commission

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:45 | 4958704 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Straight talker?

Isn't he the one who infamously said, "When things get serious, you have to lie"?

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:45 | 4958719 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meh

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:48 | 4958725 Manthong
Manthong's picture

“I do assume that with privatizations, the Greek government will be able to generate far
more revenue over the years than the €50 billion it actually proposed.”

 “it is difficult for us to keep the public adequately and correctly informed all the time”

“I chose to produce a small wave of outrage over a white lie.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jean-claude-juncker-europe-doing-gods-work-lying-about-greek-insolvency-and-keeping-eurusd-

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:52 | 4958739 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

How bout, "We all know what has to be done, we just don't know how to get re-elected after doing it."

Glad to see the leaders in the EU put politics before problem solving just like here in the US.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:04 | 4958789 whatthecurtains
whatthecurtains's picture

Ironically he was telling the truth on that one.  Proves he IS a heavy drinker and must have ben drunk when he said it.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:43 | 4958943 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

The very same.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:43 | 4958711 Devon
Devon's picture

Straight talker, are you taking the piss. The only smoker and drinker who does that is Farage.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:50 | 4958732 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

sure. because Nigel Farage would ever admit telling endless half-truths? remember that Juncker is the guy which allegedly said "when things get hot, you have to lie" or something in that order. if you read ZH only, you will get a very very slanted view of both smokers and drinkers

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:54 | 4958743 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I don't drink and I don't smoke and I don't wear no greasy coat.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:39 | 4958698 magpie
magpie's picture

Nothing to do with Thatcher proteges accused of pedophilia...nothing at all.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:54 | 4958741 CPL
CPL's picture

Yeah I noticed that as well, trying to keep the royals out of the cross hairs of the pedo-murder charges being thrown around in the shadows.  Going to have to turn the weird up a fraction....europe is about to get weird btw.  Get the popcorn.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:00 | 4958763 magpie
magpie's picture

When the story about Savile broke, i thought the revelations would go in that direction...or against Labor and the BBC or the Church of England. Lots of dirt to meet the sunshine. David Icke isn't such a bedlamite after all.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:10 | 4959077 CPL
CPL's picture

They've been borrowing another's throne and power with little result and much damage ...and their rent is late.   Oaths broken basically.  Which means all agreements; spectral, supernatural or natural; arranged prior in agreement with past parties are no longer vested and are considered null and void and all are released from any detailed agreements by this judgement.  All those bound prior by agreements are released on condition of good behavior and assisting in the service of Justice and the benefit of all.

So...all I'm saying is they should just turn themselves in now, spill their guts to law enforcement and save the big blow out circus show so people out there can get some closure for a handful of pedo dirt bags.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:42 | 4958701 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The reshuffle: The (British) Cabinet has clearly taken a more Eurosceptic turn"

one that includes the UK soon exiting the European_Convention_on_Human_Rights. a club which includes all european countries... except one crackpot dictatorship that lies between two members like Poland and... Russia

what's next? death penalty in England?

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:43 | 4958710 magpie
magpie's picture

Quite a paradox, they only just noticed that they have to become more police statey to stay in Europe...so they have to get out to stay in.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:52 | 4958738 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

birdbrain, you have it the wrong way 'round. you can't become more police statey and keep staying in the EU

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:08 | 4959066 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Normally I would agree with that. It is a little weird that the only "rah! rah!" left of the EZ is Ukraine...which sure looks like it's heading straight to open war with Mother Russia.

"He is a Juncker after all."

So Europe agrees...Plan Ost continues.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:52 | 4958736 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Personally, I feel that such tiny islands, with limited real resources (much like Japan), should be very fucking careful what they wish for.

No question however, that London has been busy "manufacturing" financial "products" of mass destruction again...

Just look at the U.K.'s GDP.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:24 | 4959123 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

ohh engelund my lionheart

what has become of thou.

cover up of satanic blood royal and masonic rituals.

working with israel mossad

 providing boys for rape and  snuff movies.

god save the vampyre queen

not.

nick clegg running away from the truth

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeAc6UwfOuM

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:43 | 4958944 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

Well Duh!  Of course the death penalty will be back.  Beheadings in trafalgar square one the pakis finish taking over.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:20 | 4959146 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

maybe you should direct your anger not at the paki but the jew you fucking dolt : )

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:40 | 4958702 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I'll take, "Who gives a shit?" for 1000 Alex.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:59 | 4958771 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

then why do you comment in an article called "Meanwhile in Europe..."?

btw, Ashton is out. and, interestingly, Poland & the Baltic Nations are against the Italian Foreign minister becoming the new EU foreign ministers on the grounds of her being... not anti-Russian enough

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:42 | 4958703 Devon
Devon's picture

Let's be clear, the renegotiation is pure bollox. Any red line would have to include the free movement of people, and that is central to the EU who will not permit it. For the UK to succeed would have other EU countries demanding their own red lines, and the EU would become unworkable in short order. HVR, Hollande, Merkel, Reding, Schultz, Barroso and many others have made that clear.

All this has been about is the UKIP threat as the Tories know they cannot win without much of that vote. No reform would have 57% voting to leave in a recent poll, and 'ever closer union' hasn't got a hope in the UK, and highly questionable in much of the EU. (note the French vote in the EP elections). 

Juncker is a god send to the eurosceptics and just reinforces that no deal will ever be possible with such a craven, corrupt euroloon in charge.

Bring on the Brexit!

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:02 | 4958715 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

agree. free movement of European Citizens is one of the Four Freedoms that are the foundation of the EU. not negotiable

meanwhile, Britons should really, really have a honest debate on immigration. starting with the fact that there are millions of foreigners in the UK that aren't there thanks to the EU, but because of the British Imperial past

Bring on the Brexit

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:09 | 4958812 smacker
smacker's picture

Ghordius, that is a very very good point.

Sadly, I wrote to the Home Secretary Theresa May about that very issue last November when she introduced her rubbish Immigration Bill to fool people into thinking she was getting tough on immigration. She never had the courtesy of replying.

Here's an extract of my letter especially for you:

"We all know that immigration problems in the UK have grown over many years and one visit to areas of London and numerous towns and cities north of Watford tells the story. Many emanate from past and present British imperial foreign policy. Add to that refugees and asylum seekers from countries that successive British governments actively subvert, eg Iraq and now Syria."

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:20 | 4958847 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I had once a little statistic about which kind of foreigners there are on Dear Old Blighty, and found out that there is a lot of statistical "noise", because in many cases the only thing you could ferret out is where people were born, together with their nationality

interestingly, the influx of "EU-caused" immigration was under 750'000, roughly the same number of Britons on the continent

so basically it's a "plumber against pensioner exchange", aka hard-working Poles against grumpy Britons

but for one category: 500'000 Irish, which are in the UK thanks to an Act of Parliament of 1917

of course if Scotland exits the UK, you have an instant alien invasion

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:49 | 4958964 Rootin' for Putin
Rootin' for Putin's picture

The problem is two fold.

1 the pakis etc from former colonies who 40 years later still don't count themselves as British and act like they moved here yesterday.

2 the eastern Europeans (former Russia) who take advantage of the no borders rule to run to a country where they can get unemployment and a house for free and still send back more to their families than they would if they were working in their own country.

The first need to be kicked out and the second need to stopped from coming in.

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:22 | 4959155 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture

who do the jews work for brains ?

whats your beef with the paki was you anally raped by one my boy?

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:27 | 4959192 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the second point has a lot to do with the British local councils, and how they operate. in a way, they are charmingly naive, in their setup, just giving whatever is asked, with no pointed question asked. the mores of an island, perhaps

but this is not something we continentals or the EU can "fix". Britain could make a few Acts of Parliament on those issues. you know, regulations... instead of blaming Josef the Polish plumber for fixing the rot in British houses and sending money home... where he wants to return

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:45 | 4959266 smacker
smacker's picture

Even Farage won't go near the 2nd/3rd generation Indian sub-continent immigrant problem in Britain. That would bring out howls of "racist" like it did with the BNP.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:03 | 4958782 smacker
smacker's picture

Don't underestimate Cameron's tactic of renegotiating a handful of trivial repatriation of powers deals in Britain's favour and bigging them up out of all proportion to fool people that he's cracked the EU nut. Then he'll campaign for an IN vote. In fact his deals will be nothing more than an excuse for those who are frightened of the unknown (leaving the EU) to hide behind.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:05 | 4958791 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

agree, he probably will do exactly as you write. a lot of it depends on how much the "be scared of the unknowns" propaganda in Scotland will be seen as central to Scotland voting no to independence

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:47 | 4958959 Devon
Devon's picture

Wouldn't trust Cameron as far as I could throw him, a closet europhile if there ever was one.

His problem will be the back benchers and the grass roots. They will not be so easily fooled by some trivial renegotiation shite, and if he brings that back to parliament then they may wield the knife, and get a true eurosceptic in for the out campaign. 

Can only hope, and that is if Cameron manages to win in 2015. One thing for sure the EU question is not going to go away, and 'ever closer union' can't happen when it is obvious that a majority in the country don't want it.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:44 | 4958716 sangell
sangell's picture

So I guess Juncker celebrated his victory and is now passed out?

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:46 | 4958718 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"When things get bad (because of your previous monetary decisions) you have to lie (in order to keep your job and not be held accountable)." 

 

That is what it means...

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 09:45 | 4958720 Shylockracy
Shylockracy's picture

 

Supreme irony

Tweet by Prez Gaz:

"Supreme irony if detained 4 years for questioning over sex case while hiding his own involvement in paedophile ring."

"Tory child abuse whistleblower: 'Margaret Thatcher knew all about underage sex ring among ministers'"

"William Hague stifled 1996 paedophile report, says 'victim'"

source:

http://xymphora.blogspot.de/

 

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:07 | 4958794 whatthecurtains
whatthecurtains's picture

You'd think running unopposed Juncker would have won by a landslide.  The EU just wallows in its form of Democracy.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:17 | 4959125 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

That's a nice piece of real estate. "Back door to the Khuban." Putin better watch his back.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 10:09 | 4958809 tumblemore
tumblemore's picture

The UK reshuffle may just be about getting rid of a couple of people who look like they might become an embarassment in the next few weeks and then needing to sack lots of other people at the same time to act as a smokescreen.

 

 

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:01 | 4959016 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Utter fucking bollocks.

A euro-sceptic conservative?

Talk fucking sense boy, dont talk owt your arse and chew at the same time, it gets muddled.

Bunch of communistic cunts.

;-)

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:12 | 4959090 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

When things get serious, you have to lie.

-Junklicker

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:40 | 4959250 smacker
smacker's picture

"What does this mean?"

 

Nothing. Absolutely nothing.

It's simply changing the players in the game. But it's the same game.

Tue, 07/15/2014 - 11:48 | 4959276 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

What it means is that as one CUNT EXITS another ENTERS. It's still a relatively small revolving door; gotta be an insider; 3 finger fuck-off an' all that masonic stuff.

Possibly ' young boys ' ARSE against the WALL in the case of the bald dwarf.

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