Beige Book Summary: "Optimism" - 24; "Pessimism" - 1

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While in the "market", in which both bad and good news once again send stocks to new ATH, newsflow no longer matters, the most irrelvant of all economic reports is the Fed's beige book. It was thus not surprising to see stocks have absolutely zero reaction to a report which according to the Fed saw the US economy grow in every region of the US, bolstered by consumer spending, tourism, manufacturing and improving labor market. In fact: everything apparently is great. So great that one wonder why the Fed is still monetizing tens of billions every month and ZIRP is on the Fed's calendar for at a year more.

Some of the highlights:

  • The pace of economic growth was characterized as moderate in New York, Chicago, Minneapolis, Dallas, and San Francisco, while the remaining Districts reported modest expansion.

The difference between modest and moderate is still unclear.

  • Overall consumer spending increased in every District. Retail sales grew modestly in most Districts, with increases that were generally similar to the previous reporting period. Vehicle sales remained stronger than non-auto retail sales, with Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco indicating robust to very strong auto sales.
  • Hotel contacts described robust activity in the Boston, New York, Atlanta, and Minneapolis Districts, while Philadelphia and Richmond noted activity levels that were in line with seasonal norms.
  • Many Districts reported positive growth for professional and business services, including healthcare consulting, advertising, engineering, accounting, and technology.
  • Manufacturing activity expanded in all twelve Districts.
  • Reports on real estate activity varied across the Districts. Many Districts reported low inventories and increasing home prices, but demand was mixed. Boston, New York, and St. Louis reported home sales were below year-ago levels, while Chicago noted a decrease in home sales since the last survey period. Home sales in other Districts remained steady or increased.
  • Loan volumes rose across the nation, with slight to moderate increases reported in most Districts.
  • Most fall crops were reported in good or better condition, and expectations of higher production lowered crop prices. Profitability improved for livestock operators in the Atlanta, Minneapolis, and Kansas City Districts due to high cattle and hog prices. Oil production expanded in the Minneapolis, Kansas City, and Dallas Districts, while natural gas and coal production remained relatively steady in reporting Districts.
  • Labor market conditions improved, as all twelve Districts reported slight to moderate employment growth. Several Districts continued to report some difficulty finding workers for skilled positions.
  • Price pressures were generally contained, with most Districts reporting slight to modest price increases for both inputs and finished goods

And so on.

Perhaps the most informative data point however was that in counting instances of the following words:

  • "Optimistic" or "optimism": 24
  • "Pessimism": 1

It appears Americans around the country, in a ratio of 24-to-1, took seriously Obama's advice to be less cynical and more full of hope.

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Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:19 | 4963573 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

Outa rename it Fake Book...

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:24 | 4963586 knukles
knukles's picture

One of the big job growth areas:  Healthcare Consulting

No, not spending money on healthcare itself, but consulting about fucking regulations deluxe recently imposed upon the masses by the .....
Oh, fuck me...

and I had so many constructive things to do today before I got re-acclimated to the New Normal's reality of "just fuck it why bother"

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:40 | 4963669 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Constructive things is something unemployed people would do nowadays. New Normal, same as Old Fucked Up.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:55 | 4963699 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

the shit brown book...?

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:16 | 4963868 Keyser
Keyser's picture

Would that be Brown 25? 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:40 | 4963670 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

<-- Red Pill

<-- Blue Pill

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:07 | 4963833 IMACOINNUT
IMACOINNUT's picture

I concur.

All of us healthcare workers are getting bombed with new healthcare charting and methods to drain the last buck from the system by the consulting masses. ICD- 10 here we come.

Yea, at this point it is best summed up with "just fuck it".

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:51 | 4963660 Jadr
Jadr's picture

Off topic, but do comments get scrubbed or removed from your comment list as articles age or are archived?  I searched for my previous comments to see which were still there and only two of my many comments are showing up which are from this month.  Since many people judge someone's comments based on account age and the number of comments made, it is annoying to see that it looks like my account is an old account but only has two comments.

 

Even this comment isn't showing up when I search for my own comments. Wtfmate?

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:57 | 4963774 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Sometimes that happens just before they pull the plug on you...

;-)

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:20 | 4963581 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

check out the vix. holy crap.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:49 | 4963728 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They'll get Vix down to negative numbers where it obviously should be real soon, I'm sure they're pissed it's not yet there already.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:21 | 4963588 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"Overall consumer spending increased in every District. Retail sales grew modestly in most Districts, with increases that were generally similar to the previous reporting period."

 

Umm, Yeah it's called INFLATION.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:27 | 4963612 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Why beige book? Why not brown book?

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:34 | 4963646 blabam
blabam's picture

Makes it sound sophisticated.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:29 | 4963624 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The song remains the same, but if you are going to make such claims in your beige book, then interest rates also need to be rising at a "moderate to modest" pace, yet they are not and equities are not inflationary.  Can't have it both ways, all these fuckers are doing is further confirming that eCONomics is a fucking joke.

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:29 | 4963625 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Fire that intern who allowed "Pessimism" into that report.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:26 | 4963926 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I don't know where Tyler found 'pessimism' in the report. I searched for it and found no instances.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:29 | 4963626 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Anyone who says they're optimistic 24 times, is really just trying to convince themselves that they're optimistic, when in fact they're not. 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:31 | 4963632 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

What a pess-aphobic that one dude is! Shame!

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:33 | 4963639 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

4% of people pessimistic

5% of people say they have seen Elvis

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:47 | 4963713 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'4 out of 5 Americans now say they believe in angels.....WTF has everyone in this country lost their fucking MINDS??'
George Carlin

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:33 | 4963642 ekm1
ekm1's picture

White House personnel reviewed and rearranged FOMC Beige Book Notes notes a lot better this time, unlike Benghazi.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:52 | 4963694 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Optimism enemas from a firehose for everyone!!

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:58 | 4963778 Racer
Racer's picture

And no doubt the sole pessimism was stated like this:

'we can see no reason for pessimism going forward'

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:03 | 4963809 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I'm sure the AP will come up with some new definition of pessimism... Forward Soviet>

   AP Won't Use the Term 'Illegal Immigrant' Because Of Its 'Anti-Ethnic Undertones' | NewsBusters

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:24 | 4963918 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Good catch Yen.

"Illegal" is a racist slur in our brave new world; "rule-of-law" soon to be deemed an obscenity.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 15:22 | 4963907 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

You'd have to think positive on a tight rope walk between skyscrapers.

The FED has no idea what it is doing - other than lifting the 1% to the clouds on Gossamer wings made of other people's money and lives.

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