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Homebuilder Sentiment Surges, Beats By Most In A Year Led By "Future" Hopes

Tyler Durden's picture




 

NAHB Sentiment surged 4 points to 53 - its first time above the crucial 'recovery' 50-level since January. All sub-indices were higher but the biggest gain was in "Future sales expectations" which soared to its highest since September (and consider for a moment just how 'wrong' builders were from that point). All regions rose with The West rising most (and South least). Given the massive divergence between Builder sentiment and the reality of sales and mortgage apps, it is no surprise that "hope" is what they have left.

HANB jumps to best since January... led by future hope...

 

which - given the following chart - is all they have...

 

Especially if US and China clamp down on hot money flows...

 

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Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:13 | 4962466 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

sentiment... THE STUFF WHERE EMPIRES ARE BUILD ON!!

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:22 | 4962475 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Ghost homes....

 

Announcing the 200 year mortgage for people with 29.5 hr/wk jobs....hopefully medical science will catch up.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:45 | 4962536 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Multifamily housing going up everywhere in Texas.  No mortgage required, just first and last month's rent, and maybe a damage deposit.  Lots and lots of ignorant chickens safely consuming big ag feed and producing little nest eggs to be stolen by the man...

...and we wonder why drug and alcohol abuse is so prevalent.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:45 | 4962582 pods
pods's picture

Same with NC HH.  The phrase of the day is "mixed use development."

At least the human livestock have a say about going into their cages though. We drive past a chicken/turkey farm on the way down east. Dozens upon dozens of buildings scattered in the fields where their feed is grown. I call it Turkey Treblinka.  And that is probably one of the best looking ones.

pods

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 11:04 | 4962604 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

"Cluck...cluck...hey Ellen...ain't this grand?  After we pay rent and our grocery bill we still have  a little something left for our 401k that we have safely tucked away for our retirement...cluck...cluck."

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 11:06 | 4962652 pods
pods's picture

So Ellen, have you streamed the Walking Dead yet?  It eerily seems like our little mixed-use development except the zombies don't look so scary.

pods

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 11:49 | 4962762 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

It is weird.  So many folks seem to prefer living in a concrete box to living in a home on a spacious lot.  It is as if they are comfortable existing entirely in the digital realm.  I just sold my 2,000 SF home on an amazing wooded lot here in DC-area, for a cool three quarters of a million dollars.  But it was not easy to find a buyer - so many were turned off by the lot, wondering how much work it would be to maintain, scared of poison ivy, ticks, potential falling branches, etc.  Finally found a buyer who welcome opportunity to have his own woods to tend to and enjoy.

Feels good to be mortgage free.  Now, what to do with the negative-earning-asset, the cash.

As to DC - when I hear POTUS and others speak frankly about the risk of nuclear detonation in a US city, I take him seriously.  I recall that just prior to 9/11 Clinton, Albright, Wm. Cohen etc were warning in writing, suggesting that US would be attacked.  I can't help but wonder if the reason the Diane Feinsteins of the world today tolerate the abominable invasiveness of NSA, the spying on the citizenry, is because they are scared stiff of the nuke prospect.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:50 | 4962596 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Same here in Florida. Some think this is the Obama housing doctrine.  Looks like the 1960's subsidized housing projects all over again except now they are being placed in the more affluent neighborhoods in order to force assimilation of rich and poor.

Hey, is that Obama's chickens coming home to roost.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 11:06 | 4962656 pods
pods's picture

pssst, Agenda 21.

 

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 12:56 | 4963132 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

ghetto housing being put into NY, Chicago, LA

 

Vancouver and Toronto are a total ghetto shithole - lots of vacancies too

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:18 | 4962482 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

Builders are such keen market watchers. 

As long as lenders will lend, they will build.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:14 | 4962470 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

more fake surveys...only thing they gut left holding this illusion up

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:15 | 4962471 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Bullish for psychotropic drug manufacturers.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:18 | 4962483 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

U think there are still people out there that can up their dose?

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:19 | 4962487 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Always.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:17 | 4962477 pods
pods's picture

I want a garage that fits my flying car in it dammit!

(if we are going to go all hopium)

pods

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:17 | 4962478 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Good.  Another poll about what people need to happen or they will die.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:18 | 4962484 youngman
youngman's picture

Someone better start filling out loan applications ..or they are going to be in a world of hurt with their depression

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:19 | 4962488 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

Looks like yellen glory hole is not satisfying enough of the banksters!!  She either needs another mouth or she needs to open up the other 2 holes!!  HaHa

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:23 | 4962500 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Should have down arrowed you for that frightening imagery.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:20 | 4962490 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

I guess when one takes into account the Bank earnings releases and then look at this ( meaningless measure ) something is not jiving. Save your " buying with cash " bull shit for the Daily Kos...most take a Mortgage for such a large purchase and that clearly is not the case according to Bank earning sheets.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:22 | 4962495 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

If you take a survey of devil worshippers, 100% of them think they will get a big reward in Hell.  Not one of them thinks Hell will be a bad place.  Their sentiment about their future in Hell is high.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:22 | 4962498 Taterboy
Taterboy's picture

Hopey Housing!!

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:41 | 4962560 Rubbish
Rubbish's picture

Hoping they give me one.

 

Seems plausible.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:28 | 4962516 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Seriously? These survey takers must take their surveys from people living under overpasses... Another reason to BTFATH on a macro 3rd tier survey.

   Mortgage rates went up this week, and mortgage applications went down... A free unicorn for every first time buyer.

 

04:00   USD MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 4.33%   4.32%   04:00   USD MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) -3.6%   1.9%
Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:41 | 4962558 novictim
novictim's picture

Thanks, Yen.

The fact that rates rise inversely with home prices means that we should expect home prices to crator anytime now.  

People better unload those overpriced crap shacks ASAP!

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 12:00 | 4962823 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

Gave you an up arrow for unicorn comment Yen. Made me laugh. Homebuilders must be smoking dust made from unicorn horns, what fucking idiots.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:29 | 4962521 youngman
youngman's picture

It wont be long until we are back to liar loans...no money down loans...etc..etc...they need to make those fees...and the government will backstop them...

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:44 | 4962571 BandGap
BandGap's picture

That won't happen for a long, long time. They need another route to the government teet. Too many of the masses are aware of this one.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 10:48 | 4962590 IronShield
IronShield's picture

You just can't make this $hit up!

 

Do I really need a /s?

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 11:13 | 4962674 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Four more abandoned homes in my (admittedly working-class) neighbourhood in the past year.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 12:07 | 4962852 25or6to4
25or6to4's picture

@Rex
I see whole development around here where the land was improved and streets put in but no houses yet. The only occupants seem to be the weeds that are busting through the asphalt.

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 12:19 | 4962902 kurt
kurt's picture

Homebuilder's Semen Surges, Beats It Most of the Year Hopes Can Continue in "Future"

Wed, 07/16/2014 - 14:50 | 4963740 Duude
Duude's picture

Each of the last 6 years have seen fewer homebuilds than EVERY year for the last 50+ years up till 2007.  That's a rather startling statistic considering the number of recession years over those 50+ years together with a 6 year span of some of the lowest mortgage rates in a generation.

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