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Janet Yellen Opens Mouth, Epic "Valuation" Fiasco Ensues
5 Years ago, President Obama explained to the American public that "profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal" much to the chagrin of CPAs everywhere, stuck looking under every rock and cranny just what a profit and earning ratio was.
Today, none other than Janet Yellen created yet another imaginary metric to reassure the stock-buying-public that all is well as follows: "price equity ratios and other measures are not outside of historical norms." While she admits "some things may be on the high side," her credibility is entirely blown as a simple glance at the following chart shows that - as opposed to what Yellen says, none other than the ultimate establishment body JPMorgan shows that valuations in "price-earnings ratios" are higher now than at the peak of the bubble in 2007. To conclude, this is why the Fed should not enter the business of "valuing" stocks - it has NO IDEA what it is talking about.
To recap: five years ago, President Obama performed the first open-mouth operation for investors to buy stocks and made up a new valuation metric.
"what you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it"
Today, it was Yellen's turn to show her ignorance: fast forward to 1:32:44 in the clip below for the epic "Price-Equity ratio" reference.
Broadcast live streaming video on Ustream
"The Federal Reserve has been increasingly and intensely focused on financial stability, and we understand that maintaining interest rates at low levels for a long time can incent reach-for-yield or asset bubbles. So we are monitoring this very closely, and that's in part why I reference some of these trends in my opening testimony.
My general assessment at this point is that threats to financial stability are at a moderate level and not a very high level. Some of the things that I would look at in assessing threats to financial stability to see if they're broad-based, broad measures of asset prices, of equities, real estate, of debt -- do they seem to be out of line with historical norms? And I think they are the answer is no. Some things may be on the high side, and there may be some pockets where we see valuations becoming very stretched but not generally.
The use of leverage is not broad-based. It hasn't increased in credit growth. It's not --you know, at alarming levels by any means.
So I don't have a view -- the Federal Reserve doesn't take a view as to what the right level of equity or asset prices should be, but we do try to monitor to see if they are rising outside of levels consistent with historic norms. And as I indicated, in spite of the fact that equity prices, broad indices have risen substantially, price-equity ratios and other measures are not outside of historical norms. And I don't know what the right level of prices is, but in that sense I'm not seeing alarming warning signals."
* * *
The problem - aside from WTF is a "price-equity ratio" is that P/E ratios are actually higher now than they were at peak of the bubble...
- Current forward S&P 500 P/E: 15.6x
- Forward S&P 500 P/E on October 9, 2007: 15.2x
Needless to say, this assumes the current consensus for Non-GAAP earnings growth is accurate, which as we explained previously is driven almost entirely by "one-time charge" addbacks: addbacks which traditionally peak just before recessions strikes. That, and collapsing share counts due to endless buybacks of course, all of which is driven by cheap credit.
But all of the above is "noise" to quote Janet Yellen. One quick look at the chart below and it becomes immediately clear that the 190% surge in the S&P since the 2009 lows has been entirely on the $10 trillion (excluding China's $25 trillion in new financial debt) in central bank created liquidity.
And some additional equity valuation metrics now vs "then"
* * *
Yet day after day, investors listen to The Fed, mesmerized by every word that comes out of their mouths, when in fact yet again it is all bullshit fluff and clueless textbook misunderstanding of the irrationality of markets rationally charged higher by the Fed's ignorance now laid out for all to see.
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Atlanta TSA Agent To Reporter: What Is This “District Of Columbia” You Speak Of?
http://consumerist.com/2014/07/16/atlanta-tsa-agent-to-reporter-what-is-this-district-of-columbia-you-speak-of/
They are there to save us, count on it. Now assume the position.
Yeah, what city is that district in anyway?
And "price-equity ratio" is that ratio thing ya know with numbers and stuff.
Because she can.
"Capital District", that's what she should have told the TSA agent. Hopefully the agent has seen the movie.
Thank you sir, may I have another cavity search?
Were a BIG country and their are different cultures as well as CLASS strata but this is GODDAMNED embarassing.
That is part of district 13. We torched that mother years ago when they rose up.
Just found out the TSA agent is really this "Noah Smith"
Talking about valuation in the absence of a mechanism for true price discovery is a fool's errand. She plays the part perfectly.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/gold-dreamers-face-hars...
Tyler Bloomberg just kicked u right in the ding dong.
Its code...BTFD
"gold is heavy and easy to steal".
LMFAO!! Kinda like concrete? What a baffoon. Of course, Bitcoin is totally transparent and will outlast a complete fiat collapse..... /s
Fuck Bloomberg. Bunch of hobos. The article makes it painfully clear to me that 2 objectives were the MO: Discredit both gold (4,000 year old money), and ZH. In a manipulated arena it is easy to make an argument about percentage of losses because gold is the barometer of USD malfeasance. And for gold to be let free would show the world how corrupt and worthless the USD really is.
Bloomberg just lost any ounce... I mean, any dollar of credit they had with me.
i second that. fuck bloomberg.
they have some balls to challenge zerhedge. "occasionally good reporting" smdh.
US Media want us to look like UK.
$200K in debt per household
$20K in avg Income
$Empire Faded in WWI
$No Industrial Strategy for Domestic Jobs
$Lingering Thatcherism
$Permanent Lower Class that is Ignored
Author of article, Noah Smith, is another shill for lingering Stagflation. He doesn't like the Fundamentals, he likes Technicals. Group Think Media. Corporate Culture. Keep all your pension in Company Stock, good man.
what really tops it off is the slandering of Austrian economics. like its some sort of terrorist ideology. bloomberg might as well change their name to "State Department and Friends"
What the fuck did anyone expect from a corrupt plutocrat who tries to ban the fucking size of sodas?
And his efforts to rid the population of guns means that when TSHTF, he's at the top of "the list."
Bloomturd trolls don't understand terms like BTFD, BTFATH or BTFWIII, otherwise they might employ more defensible tactics in their hit pieces.
Let's welcome Noah to fightclub & await the proprietor's response to this handbag slap...
Assistant prof of finance LOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tQG15iM1UI
Today I learned gold was a poor hedge against inflation. Thats the god damndest thing ever because I could have swore it wasnt but a year ago that gold in rupee terms hit an all time high as India's currency was weakened to an (all time?) low.
Apparently Smith had no response to "Austrian Economics Vs Clueless Trolls" so he decided to do what he does best: troll what few readers he has with another silly Zero Hedge name-dropping, ad hominem click bait piece in hope of generating page views (he is paid on a per click basis).
We wish the Stony Brook assistant professor...
... the best of luck on his road to tenure paved with Bloomberg View smear pieces instead of actual, well, research. We have zero use for him, or his free advertising.
Smith as in "Agent Smith" ? How appropriate...
It validates the fact that every freaking college course is run by the T.A's while the actual Professor is out golfing or hitting on a freshman. Apparently it's gotten to the point where assistants even get to write bloomberg op ed pieces. How embarrassing for the professor to get skanked by his underling.
SUNY Stonybrook....LOL. It's just too funny.
"Those who can, do. Those who can't, teach. Those who can't can't, assist".
Haha. That assclown wouldnt last five minutes around here.
fyi ... Assistant Professor is a full-time gig; it's different from Teaching Assistant.
For purposes of this conversation it's the same thing.
...an example of the gap between the "real world" and school.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlVDGmjz7eM
I'm not defending him, but an assistant professor is not a teaching assistant, it's the lowest rung of professordom. Assistant professor, then associate professor, then full professor. the assistant profs are usually (but not always) younger. Yeah, I'm an assistant professor-music.
The key to a successful insult is disregarding specifics regarding your intended targets own personal circumstances and making sure to label them inaccurately. With that said i still wonder how a piker like him was able to get a piece in Bloomberg.
I mean no offense to you and wish you luck.
Still has milk on his chin, little boy. Just because some fiat-reliant institution brain washed him into believing a certian way, doesn't mean it is right. If he could think for himself and research real money, he'd see how embarrassing his remarks really are.
That's not milk.
LOL, nice pickup.
No tenure for you Noah.
He's a shoe-in for tenure. That kind of embarassing performance is a resume enhancement in that part of academia.
Fair disclosure: I am an economist by training, but I'm feeling much better now.
The only chair he is fit to warm is a high one.
how do they choose these names like "Smith" he sure doesn't look like his ancestors were on the Mayflower... maybe daddy or grand-daddy got the phone book out like the guy in The Jerk?
Couldn't stomach watching Janet today. They never answer hardcore questions, just spew bullshit that they want you to believe. Got a good idea what happened today based on ZH community comments.
Thanks for the above link Tyler.
He's right down the road from me. If you want I can deliver a rabbit punch courtesy of Tyler Durden. "Welcome to Fight Club, bitch."
Mr. Smith has gotten too much attention as it is. I'm sure he'll show this thread to some cute coed and use it to try to get a date.
knock-out game? that would be super awesome man. make sure you get a go-pro first. or better yet, google-glasses LMFAO oh man the irony.
He probably can't even make soap, but he'd make a good punching bag.
cant make soap. but he sure can drop it. fish fish fish fish
I'm going to have to start spending some time on Bloomberg. This Noah Smith guy is a scream.
He sure has those Kissinger eyes.
All enquiries & detailed requests for NS's Japanese bukkake experiences should of course be sent to the contacts TD lists above....may be good to ask whether he understands the difference between a dick in the ear & several milleniums of a proven store of wealth.
Did anyone get a link to another story "People hate bankers because people are ignorant."?
Holy propaganda batman.
yeah, lol
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/people-hate-bankers-bec...
"Before buying any financial product, people should pass a simple government-mandated test on its properties."
Make sure to screenshot the Bloomturd article and others like it, as when gold finally hits a moonshot they will most likely be "conveniently" scrubbed from the internet.
"Gold is not the investment that you are looking for. You can look at equities now. May the Fed be with you."
The fuse has been lit offshore, not like the last time when Lehman was bitch-slapped as the sacrificed goat.
As far as the brown clown prodding Russia, all the stops on the chaos train are being pulled as we plunge towards the valley floor. It all goes down when perception returns.
No bubbles to see here, move along please...
The time to get long Gold and Silver has come, on the recent pullback and furthered "ridiculousness" from The Fed.
The miners look fantastic here as per Forex Kong and his current short list of purchases today.
http://forexkong.com/2014/07/16/kong-buys-gold-and-silver-miners-galore/
Juniors are now in a 'Dust Bowl' according to Brent Cook.
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/brent-cooks-tips-for-finding-juniors-t...
AUMN
pretty legit silver miner. 50 million share float too. get your tickets while they are on sale folks.
That's my problem! That's why I've been confused about this market! I was watching the wrong metrics, I should have been looking at the Price-Equity ratio! Fuck, thanks Janet - I never thought the FED would be providing investment advice, but this is fantastic.
It's just proof that she is a figure head. The closer to the top, the dumber these puppets get. Both Obama and Bush are near retards who are/were led around by the people in charge.
"Price-Equity ratio"? that must be like "30 Caliber Magazine Clips" LMFAO!!
you have to see it to believe it. toooo funny man
California State Sen Kevin de Leon Goes Full Retardhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wgpRY8E25Vw
Published on Jan 21, 2014
California State Sen. Kevin de Leon makes a fool of himself and goes on a rant about this "ghost gun" with the "bility" with a .30 caliber clip to disperse 30 bullets within half a second(not true) 30 "magazine clip". Magazine and Clip are two very different things. Just more obvious ignorance about firearms in politics.
Aside from all its other tasks that were not in the feds original mandate, when did they assume the responsiblity to determine what fair market value is for stocks?
Our congress and senate seems to imply they control everything economic.
congressman and senators are too pussified to make critical decisions that may effect the outcome of their next election, which is why they pass the buck to a non-elected organization or official. they all suck or they'd be in private enterprise.
One word: revolving-door
And in the final analysis it's not like "private enterprise" can stave off the inevitable collapse that is certain with the practice of perpetual growth on a finite planet.
When everybody realized they had the one TRUE economic model.
Somebody famous once said: We're all Keynesian now.
TRicky Dicky. George Schultz and Arthur Burns whispered that in his ear.
His Treasury Secretary John Connolly should have taken the head shot.
We are all Obamas now.
Just wait till all the Chicoms show up owning America in the next Collapse. We won't be officially Communists. But we will have 1000s of International laws to obey now that the US has signed NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, WTO, GATT, and then TPP & TAP.
But mainly with a dollar crash, foreigners will turn out to Own power companies, utilities, apartment buildings, houses, business offices, and probably transportation systems and entertainment venues.
Chicoms have their own VERY big problems. And in case you missed the Executive Order foreign nationals can be stripped of all property if engaged in hostilities with the US. That's the awesome thing about the US being fundamentally "for sale", you can buy it, but good luck taking it home with you. Capital controls on the Chicom oligarchs are going to be quite the rude awakening both in the US and China when the SHTF.
Just continued bidding upwards by the Fed's banks. Sorry, the market is rigged and you enabled it. No price discovery until a currency crisis and that could take some time.
What's the prevailing theory around here - does she really believe her own bullshit or is she just playing the role for her zioglobalist masters?
Mr Yellen is the face of the FedRes,therefore its diplomat.
All diplomats ,by definition, are paid liars,usually for their countries.
She is paid to lie, but might also believe them.
What difference,at this point,does it make ?
That's a really good analogy. +10
this overeducated jew cunt from brooklyn is trying to micromanage the US economy? haaa, lol, roflmao, (no offense to anyone else from brooklyn intended)
Duffy;
She gets told to pull back after each public appearance. She has bosses and she is typically loyal. She started public talks with too much determination, detail, and plans to cut tapering. She is now looking like an apologist for the Institution which is encroaching on Wall Street.
Nothing to see here, move along.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSjK2Oqrgic
Another 'sub-prime is well contained' moment
As part of the job description, the Chair of the Fed is the Manager of the Roach Motel.
Same as Bernanke, it is quite normal for the Yellen now to lure whomever she can into the Roach Motel and then obliterate them, as Bernanke did with Bear Stearns and Lehman, then MFG later.
TRIPLE LEHMAN
Oh come on man! Not again with the triple Lehman. Listen, I have been saying this since your hiatus. You were right. Not about triple Lehman. You said dow 30k was possible. You also said that it would not matter. I disagree with that. It matters.
Just wait.....
Be patient, as far as Triple Lehman. It is inevitable.
Dow 30k matters nothing.
It is not economic output and it would show acceleration of worldwide USD avoidance, hence more economic misery
I'm all out my man.
It's my fault though. I hate bankers. But only because I did not truly know what they do.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/people-hate-bankers-bec...
:-) good one.
Of course the article doesn't mention $1.4 quadrillion of derivative gambling worldwide
I will be fine with dow 30k. I figure by dow 25k I can sell my tiny business and move to some island and open a tiki bar. I will leave myself with enough downtime to mail you one letter a day telling you how happy I am and how much dow 30k mattered :)
Here you go btw. Here is your potential triple lehman for the week.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2318525-big-banks-hit-with-monster-250-b...
You, for sure, may find buyers to dump stocks to.
But, large money stuck in roach motel won't have anybody to sell to.
You just called the top @24,900.
Keep dreaming.
Wow. That is big.
But my view is that Triple Lehman will be forced by Putin and Jinping abandoning USD faster and faster.
Congress and Military will order the Fed to drain $10-20 trillion fast.
Wow, that's some genuinely offensive low grade propaganda Bloomberg's putting out.
U see the one I linked up top?
Ha ha, no, I'd missed that one. Nice, Bloomberg's really on top of things. I wonder why I hear so much about gold from these geniuses, but nothing similar about say, corn, or soybeans, or iron ore? Why are they only in the business of protecting me from myself with regards to misplaced optimism about gold?
As a former banker... They are correct, most people don't understand what bankers do, themselves included. Particularly as those assclowns didn't even know the correct answer to 2 of the 3 questions on their little quiz. Missing 2 out 3 is FAILING, yet they broadcast their ignorance to the world unquestioned.
The correct answer to both 2 & 3 is "do not know". The stock answers they assumed were correct are only correct when based on facts, circumstances, and definitions not in evidence in their quiz.
Curiously, while the author was busy lambasting the population for its ignorance of compound interest, he neglected to articulate how those compound interest returns are generated - by giving multiple people simultaneous unlimited claim to the same asset.
And then while implying that hatred of bankers is due to people's own ineptitude in taking on more debt than they can afford, thus triggering deflation, he failed to tell us that deflation is what happens when two or more of the multiple people with simultaneous unlimited claim on the same asset try do exercise the claim, revealing that there is only one asset rather than 9-14 that rehypothecation presents to the economy.
Next he'll tell us that the public is stupid and unsophisticated for asking to drive home a car they've bought, which the dealer had also sold to 13 other people...
Unbelievable.
We should just say OK. But if you are wrong, you, your children and their children , will be hanged for Treason. And then we would have accountability and truth again.
Too funny. The smart-n-savvy people's children will be attending university overseas with the rest of the winning DNA. When have the smart-n-savvy EVER been "punished"?
Nothing but a fuckin Circus!
Obama administration says the world’s servers are ours | Ars Technica
"Yet day after day, investors listen to The Fed"
Investors? Who are....
5 years ago for Obama's statement? He looks like one hell of a stock investor. Anyone know where he put his money?
The vast majority of his mutual fund holdings are in the Vanguard FTSE Social Index fund (VFTSX), with a range of between $115,000 and $250,000.
The fund's Top 10 holdings, according to the Vanguard site are:
what a blithering idiot
Re: 5 Years ago, President Obama explained to the American public that "profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal"
The bottom call of the century (so far). Sure are allot of people kicking themselves who didn't lisen to Ben and Bronco on THAT one.
Obama has always been good at calling for a bottom
Xoxo, Reggie
Actually the low was one week and a whole bunch of S&P points later. Moreover, every ass-clown and their mother on CNBS was calling S&P 666 a low.
So he's even dumber than LIESman et al, even before demonstrating that he doesn't understand that profits and earnings are the same thing, and hence- he is full of shit.
I don't know, if they truly are buying and have control of leverage, rates, etc, then it makes sense that they would know. Obviously fundamentals haven't mattered for a while, so using them against her "valuations" seems flawed.
clueless ...
I've been evaluating these markets by traditional measures like 'federated debt-balance sheet plasticity' and 'cash flow/market cap', but it never occurred to me to look at price-equity.
Thanks again Janet! You must be a stock pickin' genius! Yet you give up the good life as a top-notch financial wizard to serve the public, you're like a fucking saint you are!
She is like the girl at the Bear Stearns analyst training program that asked “is it better to get the valuation done fast or correctly?”
Bear was gone… two years later!
I give this charade two years +/-
Price-Equity to the moon.
"I give this charade two years +/-"
If only...
What, are you calling me an optimist or something? I just think the Price-Equity ratio may take a beating in the resulting market correction when the Fed Hikes Rates.
Of course, they could never raise rates or even lower them.
Here comes more inflation. LOL, noise.
Demand surpassed supply in Japan for the first time
in six years, adding to inflationary pressure
in the world’s third-biggest economy.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-16/demand-exceeds-supply-in-japan-...
Honestly can say, I wish I had listened to Obama
For goodness sake Janet, stop talking about the asset markets and look at your own book if you want to see what's out of line with historical norms. You own $4 trillion of paper, quite a bit of which is shit. Wake up people.
She did - she took a quick look at the FED book's price-equity ratio, felt it was in line with historical norms, and now it's full speed ahead. Although Obama probably could have told her that based on the profit equity ratio everything looks promising, as long as she's in it for the long term.
You need to look at it from an economist's point of view tho. Debt doesn't really exist. So, why look at the "other side".
We would be better off with Aunt Bea of Mayberry managing the kleptonomy.
Something looks wrong with that last table. Stocks don't look very overvalued compared to the 25 year average.
That's true. I think The Fed is correct. They are basically saying: As debt will continue to expand as it has over the last 25 (or so) years the consumer will continue to buy and pump money into "earnings".
If the debt creation ever stops the last 25 years (or more) of history will be meaningless.
I was thinking maybe the * next to the 25-year avg. meant they are using an exponentially weighted moving average, something like:
25-year_avg(t) = 0.99*current_value(t) + 0.01*25-year_avg(t-1).
I grew up outside Detroit, hadn't been back in a long time, went back for a cousin's wedding last year or so ago...
Can't see that anything the Fed has done has helped out one of this country's largest cities - nor well spoken Democratic politicians.
Ditto for Chicago where I went to school for undergrad. The more affluent bits are fine, some even nicer areas maybe along the margins - but the shitty areas are worse.
I suppose the Krugmans et al can always argue that things would have been worse but for their interventions.... fucking art of never being wrong...
Owning Your Time, Currency Veils, & Say’s Law
Most accept the status quo of expedient peer pressure automation. Others fight its gravity, and some move forward to work in the future. Few are quite so stupid as to live in a single dimension. That is the circuit you recycle, to build your own.
If the future were calculable, there would be no future, which is why the empire plan for the future has no future, except war with the past, and why life is what you make of it. Leave the futureless surrounding you behind to die in their own poison. In a game of last to lose, you want to lose first.
The trick to space travel is not to travel, but to be, a part of the gate, leaving your intellect and your body to travel, with another doing the same. Just because the empire eliminates time for natural relationships, with busy-work activity, doesn’t mean that artificial relationships, civil contract marriage, is the answer.
America is just the latest empire, prostituting its natural resources to subsidize previous empires, monetizing artificial demand for artificial supply, of dead real estate inventory, and its energy derivatives, in humanity’s oldest profession, politics. Of course the peer pressure crowd cannot allow you to step out of the MAD credit clock.
The bank merely sets empire time with credit, interlocking the peer pressure networks to feed the FILO bankruptcy queue. Public education feeds the flow back into public housing, normalizing the arbitrary outcomes. That’s why jobs are connected to peer pressure to credit, which is connected to drugs.
Manufactured food in a manufactured environment, bred by an upper middle class on drugs, inflating assets with debt, on debt as income, feeding the entitlement ponzi with impoverished children imported for the purpose, to the end of legacy energy exploitation, is not the future. And the demographic stupidity is once again locked on course, globally.
The proprietary programmers directly and indirectly incorporated more of the global population in the hunt to exploit labor, distributing debt wider and deeper, but labor moved further ahead, while the corporations wasted their time printing reserves. With dead possessions in one hand, they now try to work with the other.
And no matter how many automatons – humans, drones and robots - they employ, or how many times they attempt to solve an accounting problem with accounting, the best they can do is get further behind. Humanity is not here to print more derivative forms of gravity, for which planetary variability is the problemsolution.
Mortgaging the family farm to work in the empire factory, with bank issuing debt on the expectation of peer pressure education to liquidate the participants, has been going on for centuries, leaving the participants always at war, over artificial scarcity, created by plumbing, production against consumption, divide and conquer.
Money, the draw on wealth, either to consume the past or invest in the future, is quite simple. Debt as money, drawing on future wealth, is only complex because the issuer doesn’t want you to realize that the choice eliminates investment, until you are bankrupt, trading recurring family wealth for non-recurring consumption.
First you prepare for Monday on Friday, and then two Mondays hence, and then three, which requires probability analysis, and the most important thing you learn is that the majority is always going in the opposite direction, which has many applications, and why a gravitron is always a component in the system.
The empire traps the majority in time with debt, enslaving the body, which enslaves the intellect, which enslaves the spirit, effectively eliminating the future as a choice, replacing it with false choices, entitlement promises. With experience, that which comforts the majority, group security, warns the thinking individual.
Once you invest in production, you see a world of opportunities, instead of threats. If you enter a middle class event horizon, recognize threats as others do, until you don’t, when you exit, leaving them behind. You complete the circuit randomly, unobserved, because the empire has already occupied the direct path, mimicking mobility.
Empire mobility, a rigged lottery, exchanging status for family wealth, replaces natural interest by adding horizons from the bottom, with so-impoverished children chasing the example, hiding the lost purchasing power with inflation. With relative mobility pricing on a curve of diminishing return, stupid replaces wealth with debt, as the rising tide.
Debt as money is a problemsolution, subject to the laws of gravity, a closed system. All theories are arbitrary, with arbitrary outcomes. Some learn, but most do not, which is why debt is ineffective. It is the weak that herds up to attack the helpless, offering assistance, trapping itself in time, always with another theory, expecting a different outcome.
Empire money isn’t being systematically discounted away by accident, and hiding its operation within SMART chips isn’t helping the issuers. Dinosaurs come and go, all on the assumption that an irrational market can outlast all intelligent investors. What remains is talent.
It doesn’t take a Ph.D. in rocket science to look at the data and see that the assumption is false, for those with the physical and mental stamina to employ the gravity of stupidity, as a counterweight, not to expect equality and self-destruct upon inequality, the positive feedback loop of tyranny, entitlement bait and swap.
Debt as money is an empire façade, ostensibly to simplify decisions, with increasing obscurity. As Say provided, money is perishable relative to the stupidity of natural resource exploitation in favor of FILO bankruptcy protection, as purchasing power and the history of money clearly demonstrates, regardless of peg.
Discount, by measuring in time rather than money, to time the empire out of your life. You might think that the ivory tower physicists would be more intelligent than to pay themselves in other people’s debt, but you would be wrong. Artificial borders do not change the natural interest rate, but they do create jobs, breaking and fixing windows.
TBTF depends entirely upon parents choosing to mortgage away their children’s lives, a majority of, by and for peer pressure extortion, and children stupid enough to accept the contract. Bring on the next wizard, with a theory and a bully pulpit, built on ‘higher’ education.
You are the economy; the magician and the crowd are just a side-show. Recognize the future and everything else will take care of itself. Labor has much better things to do than build cities on sand, for the Bank of England or anyone else.
TBTF can have Carney, and a million more just like him, along with all of their followers, on this side of the Atlantic. It is labor, not the global city, which has the last, and first, word on the matter of bank value. Careful, with whom you presume to wage war, employing Family Law as a weapon.
Last time, people walked away from their mortgages. Now, the automatons are dying away, in a demographic collapse. Good luck, procreating robots with google glasses to pay the empire mortgage, on ignorance.
Wow, that was well over my pay grade.
Not really, it’s very simple. Reread it again. The message is a bit coded to those that don’t understand.
Applauds to Kevin.
I'll have to come back to this, after filling my head with some good smokes.
{?tobacco?}
OK came back to it.
Awesome.
Bottom line is, Yellen's ignorance nothwithstanding........she is getting the markets to do exactly what she wants them to do. The S may HTF soon (I hope so)...but until then she's sitting pretty.
She's doing her job. Her and her Banksters friends will find a way to drain the equities markets while the little guy is blocked. Can't get through on the phone, can't get through on the net, I'm sure that's the way they'll handle it. Remember how the market never opened on 9-11, didn't open for over a week, and when it did.......
The very idea of historical norms will doom global alarmists and economists.
How can anyone compare the business enviroment of the 40's and 50's to that of today, and compare any metric with seriousness?
Taxes, regulations, labor laws and more are all drastically different.
I'd say you can go back 20 years at most for all the mentioned metrics for "rough" comparisons. Beyond that and too many things have just changed....
keynes is the idiot left's ayn rand.
HA! +10. Too true!
Today, it was Yellen's turn to show her ignorance: fast forward to 1:32:44 in the clip below for the epic "Price-Equity ratio" reference.
Why fast forward to 1.5 hrs? This movie reminds me so much of Luis Buñuel and other great artists. I do appreciate it from the very beginning. Thank you very much for sharing, Tyler.
However, the price to undocumented American children from Honduras has never been lower. Buy now or be priced out forever.
I'd bet anything that she got this from Warren Buffett. These are his words, that stocks are generally within the historic levels of valuation.
Conveniently, his discussion of market cap to GDP, his preferred measure, is absent from the conversation.
Forward PEs are just gueses anyway, it is why Graham and others used trailing. Those forward PEs from 2007 turned out wildly wrong and PEs ended up being twice that level.
Plus, it does not matter even if stocks aren't in a bubble yet, there is near certainty they will be by the time the Fed's crazy policy runs its course.
"zerohedge @zerohedge 15m
It's on: OBAMA ACTIONS RESTRICT RUSSIAN ACCESS TO U.S. DEBT MARKETS: NYT"
That is surely a massive benefit to Russia... there is only so much toilet paper you want or need
Reminds me exactly of year 2000 when everyone at the web development firm where I worked said not to sell my stock options the company gave us like Monopoly money. I was at least smarter than Yellen back then and knew that everything was overvalued, so I sold out my thousands at $47. My coworkers swore they would go to $60 and laughed at how stupid I was. Before they could wipe the egg off their faces, we are all laid off and the price dropped below the $12 strike price necessary to sell the options. Management knew the gig was ending, but they continued to paint a rosy picture. A few guys high up that we respected for straight talk quit, so we knew something was in the wind. Something is definitely in the wind now and anybody who believes Yellen will have egg on their face too.
"Something is definitely in the wind now..."
It's not fertilizer, it's perfume. An easy mistake to make.
So who here can honestly say that Mr. Yellen isn't precisely the Fed leadership that America deserves? The Nation picked Barry Sotoreo as POTUS for chrissakes, what do you want to offset that at the Fed, the reincarnation of Mises?
Silly Tyler,
Words don't matter. This is why we call people who act like tyrants liberals and people who want less government Nazis. The circle is really a square and just BTFATH because everyone knows you should buy high and sell low.
Sincerely,
TheReplacement (the original one)
Mr Yellen help a hick owt here.
Who talked you into this gig mister? You do know, no-one had heard of you till you took this poisened chalice of a job? You didnt have to be known son? What made you do it? The 'Bennies'? Good luck with that mate.
This cunt, must be a border-line, just functioning retard to want fame this much, as the person who will oversee the collapse of western civilisation?
From nothing, becomes everthing Mr Yellen, enjoy the ride...
:-)
I never thought a stock market crash could truly yield a major disaster. But the amount of chaos this thing is going to cause will be insane. Look they (no duh) are all in; expect it when you least expect it, and so on, etc.
Maybe this goes on for another 3 or 4 more years. But at some point, this will crash, blow up, pop-- and it's is going to be Big; there is no lender of last resort this time. End game. The inmates are running the asylum. I want to believe that it's some conspiracy (ill intended or not, becuase at least that explains the logic behind the insantity) to get us out of some 'other avoidable' believed situation, so the rich can lap up the rest of the world at super cheap prices as usual.
But, I don't think these jokers and fools, across the board have any idea what's going to happen. Maybe they think it's 1984-- where they can create this fake capitalist, communist, corporate Big Brother Uptopia for the inside power players, however, this whole $hit show is going spiral uncontrollably... Will -- Look, we just didn't see it coming-- will that work this time to placate the sheeple?
Probably...
<----- Mouth open... but eyes shut. LOL.
Price to equity = price to book.A very common valuation metric.
Per the graphic price to book is at 2.6 versus a 25 yr average of 2.9.
If you assume that she meant what she said, then indeed she was correct.
Just saying...Don't be haters looking for an excuse to hate when there are plenty of valid reasons to hate. It makes you look really stupid and lessens any valid points.
Note the big asterisk on the 25 year average column, then check your calendar. This 25 year period uniquely includes all of the last three financially engineered equity bubbles and has got to have skewed the numbers higher than "normal".
I checked my calendar. I am free tonight. You are a hot chick, right?
The point was that she was not talking about P/E ratios which everyone here jumped on her for mis-speaking.
On a 25 year basis the price/book ratio reflects a lesser overvaluation than the other measures. I am only playing devil's advocate for ms. yellen.
Like I said there is plenty to bash her for, but this is not the thing to do so. It simply exposes the ignorance of the bashers.
If you like the Yellen type as you seem to, then I'm you're gal. Think the point is being missed. Stocks by any measure are overvalued. Period. No devil's advocacy necessary.
Here's the point... She indicated that market measurements were not out of historic bounds. Ok... The top of the last two market bubbles were part of history. So yes, our current overvalued market is at or near all those historic measurements. And what does that mean to Mr. Yellen. Absoutely nothing I guess... Subprime is contained once again...
Yellen is one dumb-ass Jew!
"price equity ratios and other measures are not outside of historical norms."
"The problem - aside from WTF is a "price-equity ratio" is that P/E ratios are actually higher now than they were at peak of the bubble..."
"To conclude, this is why the Fed should not enter the business of "valuing" stocks - it has NO IDEA what it is talking about."
Baffle them with B.S. is the game the FED is playing. If Fisher says they want to squelch some of the speculative steam, but not pop a bubble, they know it is a bubble, but don't want to admit to it.
"subprime is contained"
The only rule for asset bubbles that I know is that they can't pop until the Fed chairman denies that there is a bubble.
She is referring to price book ratio of course.
More shocking (cough) news from the Fed....
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101833833?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cinline%7Cstory%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101836922
We are now officially into the bubble-denial phase. But the bubble could still continue for a few years. Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" comments in late 1996, but the dotcom bubble didn't crash until 2000. Or everything might crash tomorrow.
When a bubble wants to grow, nothing can pop it. And when it decides to pop, anything can serve as the trigger.
"I don't have a view as to what the right level of equity or asset prices should be"
"I don't know what the right level of prices is but in that sense I am not seeing alarming warning signals"
Ehm. Let me translate:
We don't have any alarm bells and "in that sense" we don't hear any alarm bells ring.
Seriously? I had to put up with a lot of shit over the last weeks, but please don't tell me this is true...
It's fake the video, isn't it?
PS: not seeing "alarming" warning signals, does that mean they are seeing "non-alarming" warning signals?
Yellen=Chair of the Federal Dillusional.
Price-Equity = price/cost
Duh!
The fact that these people are not experts should only worry you if you know more than they do (and thus understand that we are ruled by idiots and thus truly screwed).
I have met many politicians and none of them ever proved they were particularly bright. I always gave them the benefit of the doubt and wrote things off as : 'Oh it was just a political speech'.
Some people I respect have assured me that at least most of the guys in the senate understand what is happening.
I'm not so sure. I think some of them have an idea of what could happen. I'll bet none of them could define Triffin's Dilemma or exorbitant privelege, none understand the significance of gold marked to market on the ECB balance sheet. Most would lose up against the top 50% of ZH readers in general understanding of economic theory. All of them are defficient in understanding Weimar hyperinflation and to the man/woman none believe that it could happen here....cause it is just too terrible...right?
)In about 2010 Judd Gregg (Senator from NH) said we would have big touble by 2015. I thought he was overly optimistic. Who knows, maybe one of them did know something.