A Brief Reminder Of Certain Events 100 Years Ago

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We thought a reminder of this headline was worthwhile on a day such as this...

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Following today's dramatic geopolitical escalations (which we hope are nothing like an "Archduke Ferdinand" moment); this evening has grown loud with the mainstream business media's deafening roar of BIS-deniers proclaiming that everything bad is priced-in and nothing good is priced-in and how "this is a teflon market." This is nothing new... as no less than The Financial Times proclaims on June 30th 1914 that "stock markets have been scarcely affected by the assassination of the heir to the Austrian throne... there's no evidence that stock holders took fright" as it's priced in (or contained?). It seems things didn't quite work out as 'priced-in'.

 

 

h/t @FT

Things were not quite as priced in as 'they' thought...

 

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Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:51 | 4970635 One And Only
One And Only's picture

If you bought and held the DOW @ 80...

...you'd be pretty comfortable today

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:54 | 4970654 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

You would be in a nursing home.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:56 | 4970665 gh0atrider
gh0atrider's picture

Vintage candlesticks

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:56 | 4970675 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Whoa!  100 years of backtesting suggests the equity markets are still a screaming buy?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:57 | 4970680 One And Only
One And Only's picture

A really nice nursing home though.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:56 | 4970669 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

If only you could short the DOW back down to 80 you would be pretty comfortable today. Sadly that will never happen because the marker will vaporize and it will be nobody left standing to collect from.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:11 | 4970746 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Believe it or not the stock market was closed for the duration of World War I ("The Great War" as it was called in Europe.)

And yes...this might be the trigger where everyone's refusal to back down from anything means we all start ramping up "as if it were a machine."

I still hear no voices of the reality of the situation...just simply "meh" and "whatever." (Or a sadistic voyeurism...something regarded as "perfectly legal" incredibly.) forget voices of restraint...where are the voices of actuality here?

The USA didn't just "create an Army" as a consequence of World War I or World War II...and in the latter case there had to be an actual attack (Pearl Harbor.)

Do we even get a policy statement? Simply put "are we the USA at war with Russia right now"?

It sure seems that way.

And vice versus as well.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:24 | 4970817 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Believe it or not the stock market was closed for the duration of World War I

(I didn't know that.) 

How did we possibly manage as a society with the stock market closed?!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:08 | 4970735 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

Too bad the world doesn't have enough cheap energy to sustain the farce like they did 100 years ago!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:59 | 4970993 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

That which cannot be sustained...

 

 

...will be nuked.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:52 | 4970641 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

The more things change, the more they stay the same. 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:54 | 4970648 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Hey I own Amalgamated Copper at 50. If it weren't for those darned Marconis sucking up all capital, I'd be a thousandaire.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:54 | 4970658 gh0atrider
gh0atrider's picture

.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:54 | 4970659 Guitarbill
Guitarbill's picture

If you bought the Dow @ 80, you would be comfortably dead.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:36 | 4970871 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

love to trade my $20s for some Oz(es) of Gold

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:56 | 4970671 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Just BTFD @ 55 !!!!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:58 | 4970683 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

VIX ahoy!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 18:57 | 4970685 U4 eee aaa
U4 eee aaa's picture

The bankers were probably pushing for war (and the black market profits that go along) back then too.

So they are finally brewing a solution to this 'surplus youth' problem we have?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:15 | 4970768 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Accident waiting to happen." The term "off ramp" was SOOOOO two months ago.

In the USA our Ace of Aces had 40 plus downed planes. In Germany i just finished reading about one guy who had over 170.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:01 | 4970706 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All orchestrated by the central banksters then, same as now. They'll pull the trapdoor when they feel like it.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:05 | 4970724 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

we have reached a permanently high something or other

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:43 | 4970900 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

"War footing" perhaps.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 20:17 | 4971094 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

21st century "doughboys" use clownbux not rifles

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:13 | 4973088 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Formerly referred to in history as judefetzen.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:06 | 4970728 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

I know we're like Charlie Brown with the football as it relates to saying this but seriously...

The time has come. This is it. Shit is about to hit the Fan in a major, major, way.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:10 | 4970744 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

I doubt it. But I have always tended to believe that it would take a two-black-swan event to put a dent in the markets. Maybe this is it. Maybe not. 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:15 | 4970772 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Don't know -- just don't know...

These markets have ignored EVERYTHING since MAY.  Nothing is bad news anymore...

But I'm hoping this will be "it".  I have been sitting on the sidelines with cash since 2009.

I based that decision on "fundamentals" and the sheer madness of what the Fed was doing would 'soon' bring on another crash...  (Kicking myself now).

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:38 | 4970878 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

It depends what you mean by "shit hitting the fan".

There can only be a collapse of the financial system when somebody REALLY big doesn't get paid and defaults (which might not be possible anymore).

If a war happens,  stocks would go to the moon as it would be the second coming (orgasm) of Big-MIC (and Tom Claney's ghost).

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:09 | 4970739 pitz
pitz's picture

I suspect some B-2 sorties are in the process of being generated right now at Whiteman AFB.   Apparently B-2's are forward deployed in England now as well.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:18 | 4970767 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Yes.

But in 1914 they didn't have several thousand ballistic missile nuclear warheads that could vacuum the world 100 times over in less than 30 minutes.

During the 50 years of it's most prolific construction we talked about the possibilities of their use -then all but forgot about them when we outspent our opponent and won a "Cold War" as if the threat were eliminated "for good"...

Now?...

You would never know it from the Nations who's government(s) harness that power and are threatening to use it at the drop of a hat when they don't get what they want and the people under there control -worry not!

Are we ripe for 1914!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:23 | 4970812 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No we're not "ripe for 1914." People might think people are...but once the realization sets in that we're acting like the clowns who decided to have a picnic "at Bull Run I" (5000 dead in that afternoon) it won't take long for the folks roaring into this thing that "this ain't Vietnam."

The calls for everyone to just "calm down here!" remind me of that seen in the movie Platoon where the Sapper takes out the FOB and the last words out of the platoon sergeant's mouth are "that's against the rules."

There are no "rules" in these things.

A war fought for "quiet"? That's a new one.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:45 | 4970852 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Oh dv what I wouldn't give to be dealing with cannons, tanks firing conventional rounds with an occasional dollop of mustard gas as sick as that may sound...

My premise was that those weapons exist (like it or not) and the options are very few once the "game of chicken" as we are witnessing first hand with the U.S. and Israel that they believe they can win gets underway!

There were very good reasons the U.S. backed off the airport incident with the Russians that took place in Bosnia in 1999, the altercation in South Ossetia in Georgia in 2008...

I do believe however that we are both desperate and stupid enough at this point to try it again this time with Ukraine just because we can and because we don't like to be the "delusional loser" that we are and have been for the last five 5 decades!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:51 | 4970949 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re: then all but forgot about them

That's a good point actually.   When constantly aware of them, they were feared.    But, now...    Very interesting point.  

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 20:04 | 4971030 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Very few people among the living have witnessed one go off.  Very few people.  It is hard to conceptualize what they actually do as it is so far out of the realm of most humans' experiance.  IMO, it would be better to agree to an above ground test once every decade or two where all of the world leaders can see what an ass fucking a nuclear war would be for the world, including them.  Nobody would fully escape that shit.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:17 | 4970778 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

Borrow dow. Sell borrowed dow. Buy triple leveraged dow short ETF. Watch dow rise 3%. Cry in the corner as wife divorces you.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:18 | 4970784 tony wilson
tony wilson's picture
SIX MILLION JEWS 1915-1938

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dda-0Q_XUhk

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:22 | 4970805 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture

Thank you for reminding me of the "plague" that will more than likely end up killing us all in the very near future!

It's a spellbinding watch and history lesson for those that want to listen.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:24 | 4970821 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

No one cares. No one has an opinion. Or at least "no one has an opinion that matters."

Somewhere out there there's a "Mission Accomplished" sign though .

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:28 | 4970830 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Triumph - Spellbound (Video)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-znWVHQA7Aw (5:18)

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:20 | 4970799 3rd Pig
3rd Pig's picture

 

Possible False Flag scenario - Malaysian airliner MH370 turns up three months late over Ukraine to be shot down and called MH17 – if that was the case you wouldn’t need passengers onboard - & it would look a bit like a Sandy Hook massacre in the sky.

IS THIS STAGED . . ?

Just speculating here folks – I know how creepy these bastards are.

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:47 | 4970920 dwayne elizando
dwayne elizando's picture

You're most likely correct. I always figured if it's talked about constantly by the MSM it's a staged event.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:26 | 4970827 no more banksters
no more banksters's picture

December 23, 2013: banksters celebrate 100 years of absolute sovereignty!

http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2013/12/december-23-2013-banksters-ce...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:44 | 4970840 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

This is all tied to the amount of facial hair that is the style to wear nowadays.

 

Back then this guy had big lamb-chop sideburns and a beard.

Nowadays you got all these guys sporting everything from heavy shadows to imitation cave dweller mullahs.

Just saying....

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:32 | 4970856 Yen Cross
Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:42 | 4970886 GooseShtepping Moron
GooseShtepping Moron's picture

The point of Tyler's post is that stock markets are extremely poor prognosticators and that economically-minded men in general are very bad at taking the pulse of events. This is because they do not pay attention to anything outside the econometric horizon. If it cannot be displayed on a chart or worked up into a formula, it doesn't exist for them. But there are other aims and other factors in the world that prove to be far more decisive than economic data when, as the colloquialism has it, "shit gets real." At the beginning of the Great War, it was the universal opinion among economists that the consequences of general mobilization would compel the cessation of hostilities within a matter of weeks. We see just how accurate that prediction turned out to be. The nations fought until their armies were hamburger. Then they fought with their reserves. Then they fought with whoever they could scrape up. They marched them into battle without shoes, without food, without even weapons. They fought until 30 million men lay dead on the battlefield and the folks on the homefront were starving, diseased, and ready to drop from exhaustion. So much for economic indicators when once you let slip the dogs of war.

When this bubble finally pops, it won't be for any glaringly obvious reason, at least not obvious to us at the time. It is only in retrospect that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand shows itself to be the spark that set off a cataclysmic conflagration, and such patterns cannot be taken as normative for all future conflicts. The very essence of a fin de siecle general war is that it resets the game, it acts like a singularity which renders all prior calculations moot. It literally ends an era, such that the priorities and arrangements which seemed so self-evident before become utterly opaque and mysterious to future generations.  We today cannot understand the American Civil War or the Russo-Japanese conflict (unless we have deliberately cultivated the historical flair for projecting ourselves into different eras); we know them only as fact and history, the passions that motivated the conflict having cooled with distance; and so shall a future generation be unable to contemplate the malaise and widespread insanity of the Obama years. Those who have a mind may wish to save some of the posts and comments from this site in a hard copy format so that a first-hand historical record of them may continue to exist. When the dust of our own era has cleared, they will make very interesting reading. In the meantime, we know that there is no reason to take at face value the opinions of economists. They are always wrong about the big things, because they are the little men.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:45 | 4970908 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

+100 on that post.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:46 | 4970914 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

Comments like this are what make wading through the rest of the muck worth it.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:59 | 4970996 The Luftwaffe
The Luftwaffe's picture

Excellent Post!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 21:56 | 4971558 margaris
margaris's picture

Goose bumps, and then I had to read it again. +1

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 20:09 | 4971051 SelfGov
SelfGov's picture

Everybody mentions the assassination in 1914 but nobody ever mentions that UK coal production peaked in 1913.

#BiophysicalEconomics

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