This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Housing Starts Tumble, Miss Most Since January 2007; Permits Have Biggest Two-Month Plunge Since Lehman
"Epic disaster." Those two words best explain what just happened with US housing starts and permits in June.
Those who want a slightly more detailed narrative of what the Department of Commerce just reported here it is: in June housing starts were expected to print at a solid 1020K, to validate the sustainable "recovery." Instead, what happened was that the May downward revised number of 985K, which was a consensus beating 1001K last month, crashed to 893K, a drop of 92K which was the biggest since the January "polar vortex" effect, the biggest miss to permaoptimistic expectations since January 2007, and which brought the total number of starts to the lowest level since September 2013. Was it the harsh weather's fault this time too?
Biggest miss since January 2007!
The reason for the collapse: a plunge in both single and multi-family starts, so one can't blame the end of Wall Street's distressed buying frenzy for this one. In fact, single-family starts cratered to 575K - the lowest since November 2012!
But where things got really ugly was in the permits data, which plunged from 1005K to 963K, far below the expected increase to 1035K. This too was the weakest print since the polar vortex low of January when permits were a measly 939K.

And unlike Starts, here one can blame Wall Street for giving up on the multi-family sector: the so-called "built to rent" permits plunged from 363K to 301K. Considering the April number was 436K, this was the biggest two month drop since, well, Lehman.
Yup: weather.
- 18081 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -






But the NAHB were so positive yesterday...nothing but blue sky for them....
Time to start drug testing those polled before we see how they are feeling.....
Stock market is up....just sayin.
I think the FED should start buying houses as well.....just sayin.
They are. Who do you think is wicking up all that MBS?
Fuckin June weather. I bet it was unexpectedly warm ... almost like summer.
Agreed. This porridge is too hot, that porridge is too cold, and we'll never get to the porridge that's "just right".
Looks fine to me. How many houses can the top 20% buy? Who cares about the Trash Class economy? They are happy living in apartments.
Or deserted industrial complexes. There is lots and lots of shelter for everyone.
Bah, we've got the most compassionate top 10% in the history of the world. Only the mentally ill are living on the streets. The worthless members of society have all the (near) food and entertainment they can handle. And, they prove this everyday by quietly living their worthless but happy lives with other members of the Trash Class. We've truly got the most functional society on the planet and EVERYBODY knows it.
most compassionate top 10% in the history of the world
The black population of Houston is gonna rise up if we let too many more illegal aliens from South America in. Our compassion is costing them jobs.
We'll just send the White Trash after them. When has THAT not worked. "Those people" are rising up. HA. Any top 10% child could figure that one out.
Think of all the free housing the government can give to the illegal immigrants....and just think; we will gladly* pay taxes for them (*SARCASM FONT)
Ahem. I happen to be a surgeon earning mid 6's, late 50s with a 10 yr old daughter and I won't buy a house, not while I am unable to sell the house I left in eastern NC, and even if I could, will not. Why? Because there is no job security anymore except for those who are already at the bottom and working minimmum wage jobs.
My job is at the mercy of big corporate hospital /HMO CEOs, most of whom are idiots,,and have less training and qualification than I in our respective fields.
The medical profession has given away our profession and livelyhood just like the politicians have given away our country.
So, to the realtors out there, get ready. The last of the dumb money (the doctors -or at least I for one) are starting to rethink the whole homeownership idea. I will rent until my daughter is out of the house (if she will ever be able to afford to do so) or I am ready to retire , if I can ever do that.
who cares,,,the immigrants are going to take your place in the market and for the first time, they will have a chance to own a home in the usa, get ready for the market explosion
Get ready for an explosion in medical H1B's!
Leave it to a doctor to draft a complaint and not be able to leave out bragging about himself... You definitely sound like you're between a rock and a hard place...
The timing of drug liberalization laws is telling.
Muh like any other economic data point released by our masters, the lie of the previous months numbers were so big that they have to catch up (down) in order to be able to pull the same trick in the coming months. The greatest example of this was the fraud GDP number of Q4 2013.
increasingly i find myself questioning the validity of the data, potential bias method of collection and whatever the algorithm or calculation used to compile the data - where did they play a game this time?
The stated unemployment rate is so out of wack as is the inflation rate - you tend not to believe anything anymore
"The Obama Lies" are becoming the standard term for ALL information on receipt until proven!
"...crashed to 893K, a drop of 92K which was the biggest since the January "polar vortex" effect..."
This is actually bullish. First, the bar has been drastically lowered going forward, so it will be easier to beat this number in the July data. That is reason enough to buy stawks now. And, should July show an improvement over this low number, that will be clear evidence that the housing market recovery has reached escape velocity, so that is more reason to buy stawks. And, since stawks should be bought now and when the July data is published, that is even more bullish... because stawks should be bought in anticipation of the August data... which should clearly be bullish even if the August data stinks...
FUBAR.
It is because of summer. Also Lavorgna said it does not count because it is all in the south. You know . Mexico or something.
not surprised. The middle class and young people have no money to build a home.
Just the losers who don't want to compete. The most-fit members of society aren't going to GIVE AWAY houses. In a survival-of-the-fittest society you've got to PROVE you are worthy of success and that comes by competing with the existing winners. Life isn't fair, but most people understand this.
"Surival of the fittest" means the jungle. That's oke but don't start whining when you meet some degraded jungle activity that you really don't like.
Yeah like when someone bigger, stronger and meaner than you comes to your house, beats you up, and takes your shit.
Where did you say you lived?
The top 10% have always lived in areas away from the Trash Class. The Trash Class always take shit from other members of the Trash Class. It has always been so.
The most-fit members of society own the government and the corporations: they are the management class that keeps the loot transfering from the bottom to top. The top 20% participate in the various scams. It's just how life works: the smartest-n-savviest screw the dumb-n-clueless and create bullshit for the dumb-n-clueless about how other dumb-n-clueless people are actually taking their shit. It NEVER fails to work.
It actually does fail to work. But with selective memory you try to hide this awkward reality. It will come anyway. Besides, you also will have to die after some time. Really, "invincible one". Childish people don't realise this being occupied with childish nonsense.
@NOTaREALmerican-I don't agree. There are a lot of educated, hard working people out there who just can't make it. The "American dream" is out of reach for many and is much harder to achieve then it used to be.
Need to find a way to allow people with no job to buy a house -
Maybe a "get out of your parents basement" tax credit -
or
Why not just offer INTEREST ONLY 30 year 0 % INTEREST RATE mortgages with no money down.
/s/
Every year the 0% interest period gets longer, first it started at 12 months than 24, now i see it for 6 years for cars and furniture. Can't wait for it to be 10 in a few years!!
nothing is free. it's built into the price. just a marketing gimmick to fool ignorant trash
I’m holding out for the 100-year, 0 interest, zero payment mortgage with an automatic Revised HARPP refinancing plan on the 100th year.
Me too but it also has to be a negative amortization loan. They have to pay me each month to live there.
or at least .25%.........like Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfien get.
and as soon as that bad housing news came out, the stock futures jumped up.
This can easily be spun into "housing market is now ready to take-off". There, all set. Forward sheeple.
Rumor has it, "there's alot of money sitting on the sidelines."
Yuk, yuk, yuk......
can't wait for NAR to save the day
Epic disaster? No, an epic disaster would be a giagantic meteor flying into the earth. Take it easy CNBC, I mean ZH....
Oh....you mean like Obamacare. Did you sign up to be hacked too?
Don't worry the repubicans are coming up with a better plan. The NDAACA.
If you listen closely you can hear "that giant sucking sound" as the standard of living slides down the drain for millions due to unrestrained QE. Everyone knew this would happen, it's not rocket science, it's a mathematical fact and now we're stuck years later with the same problems we started with before QE, TARP, TBTF, just everyone's standard of living is lower. Let's hear it for the kleptocracy!!
NOT everybody. The most-fit members of society, the top 10%, are doing better than ANY TIME in history. The Trash Class, overall, knows their kids will have an opportunity to compete to get into the top 10%. But, not everybody can make it and the worthless losers accept their lives and the most-fit-members support them by creating jobs or giving them welfare. The system is working perfectly. MOST people are happy with the system.
Going with the sarc thing or just hitting the ganja with the morning coffee?
"Ganja is too kind; more like reading The Hunger Games and REALLY identifying with the Capital.
You forgot to put the MDB attribution at the end.
It's what happens when your goal is to push up the prices of everything at unsustainably high rates at a time when wage and job growth lags and debt is already as cheap as can be.
When it comes to real estate low interest rates at some point becomes a double edge sword, that effects both the value by making it easier to purchase thus driving up prices, and at the same time allowing more building to take place and increasing the supply. Often we reach or exceed demand, this eventually has a dampening effect on rents and people stop buying it as an "investment".
Prices must rise and real estate appreciate more then the natural depreciation from the wear and tear from age or the main driver for owning it vanishes. Oversupply is the bane of real estate and crushes the value of this hard and expensive to maintain commodity. Currently we are in uncharted waters, more on this subject in the article below.
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/12/super-low-interest-rates-disservi...
The great apartment boom is nearing an end. Fueled by free Fed money through Fannine, developers have shit all over themselves to put these things up. Moral hazard is a thing of the past. They know that when the economy tanks again, the Fed will buy up their properties. Probably turn them over to FHA and make them into slum housing.
The number of apartements that have been built in Charlotte and other cities I have visited, boggles the mind.
Miker they are still building the shit out of them in my Midwestern town. There is a shortage of drywall hangers right now with all these units going on. And more apartments are coming and out for bid.
For the most part, we are dominated with medical office buildings and apartments. These medical office buildings are just being thrown up by these national conglomerates in preparation of putting out of business your local independent doctors. Assimilate or be killed!
It worked in China.
China doesn't openly advertise for illegals- maybe this is the real goal, that glut of apts will now turn into nice sec.8 voucher targets.
never confuse true malice with general ineptitude.
Always a apply a 10-20% PROPAGANDA FACTOR on government data.
Hence, the real data is 10-20% and even up to 50% worse.
In the areas where the Trash Class lives, housing is bad. Obviously, the worthless least-fit members of society can't buy houses and never should have expected to. In the top 10 or 20% areas, housing is doing great. Stop blending the most-fit members of society with the Trash Class and the numbers will make more sense.
Most fit? You mean megalomane but just don't recognise it. That's of course the difficulty with mental diseases.
Look, the top 10% is 30 million people. They are doing FANTASTIC. If 30 million people are megalomaniacs then that's what it takes to be the most-fit. We living in a non-judgmental society when it comes to economic success: whatever it takes to win is the mantra of our society. The losers just don't have the correct brain type to win, so they should gracefully eliminate themselves and their defective genes.
Did somebody spike your coffee with adrenaline this morning? You are just RIPPING down this thread. I get the sarcasm, but I've never met anyone who could post as fast as I could read.
I'm actually a human session of the latest version of the NSA AI bot. We're learning Libertarianism in today's class.
Not so.
Those 30 mil are around money printing centers like NY and money allocation centers like DC.
Living well off money printing is not success, is extortion.
Life is a game. If the Trash Class members don't have the brains to comprehend the game that's NOT the fault of the winners. Don't give me your moral judgement crap. This is a society that brings up its children to WIN regardless of the rules. Morals are for the adults to manipulate the immature children with.
Mommy, Billy isn't playing by the RULES. What's the correct answer? Grow up, kid.
:-)
Ok, then.
Using this logic, we'll see bank executives executed on streets soon.
Come on, when has anything like that happened. The bank executives will be spending their retirement in Italian villas with their mistresses. It has always been so. The Trash Class ARE Trash Class because they are below-average; if they can't figure-out the game they SURELY have no chance to know who is winning (look, over there, one of "those people", who took all your money. IT ALWAYS works).
Unless, oil is allowed to drop to $40-50, that will happen soon.
It was about to happen in 2007 when oil got to $147, before George W Bush ordered Lehman dead.
It would have been a blood bath.
I'm NOT saying things won't crash. I'm saying the Trash Class will turn on itself as it ALWAYS does, especially in a country like this with LOTS of "those people" running around.
The smart-n-savvy people won't even be bothered by "the crash", they'll prosper as they always have.
The winners are thieves and a price will be paid.
You are ignoring the fact that the 10% got there through exploitation of the 90%. Not completely, but to a large degree. Where would universities be without the government? And deposit insurance for banks. And massive government deficits that the 90% will share. Working poor paying for care of wealthy seniors. Working poor funding millionaire retires second homes and padding their brokerage accounts. Etc, etc....
Re; exploitation
The secret of success is duplicity, the secret of happiness self-delusion.
Life has ALWAYS EVERWHERE been about the smart-n-savvy people manipulating the dumbasses with bullshit for fun-n-profit.
Exploitation is applied bullshit.
Epic disaster? No one told that to the SP futes. Up since disaster hit.
Bad news is good for stocks because it means things will get better in the future. As the top 10 or 20% get wealthier they'll need better housing bling and housing for those who can afford it will increase again. The worthless members of the Trash Class NEVER should have owned houses, this will now adjust but that's what it's supposed to do.
Hey Tyler !
Why don't you let the world remember that all this Fed Reserve debt is NOT GOING TO THE CITIZENRY.
4 TRILLION OF DEBT THAT HAS NOT HELPED THE AVERAGE AMERICAN HOUSEHOLD...BUT YET THAT HOUSEHOLD IS ON THE HOOK FOR REPAYMENT.
There will be a return to reality when the debt faucet is turned off.
I say we confiscate all the wealth of every politician/reserve member that signed that debt into existence to repay it....for starters!
Start by getting the useless Gov't workers/union members that owe $1.75BB in back taxes to pay up!. WTH is that? How does that happen? How do they keep their jobs and not have their stuff confiscated & be imprisoned by the IRS? Oh, wait...never mind...Holder & Obama have bigger fish to fry, Like suing the Little Sisters Of The Poor. What a world!
Have to eliminate all the overhanging inventory. What better way then to give all the vacant and foreclosed housing to the illegals and, oh yeah, appropriate a few billion in loan grants so the homes can be repaired. Surely, the property taxes will more than make up for the welfare payments?
/sarc
BEYOND BULLISH !
Another key day for Russell 2K watchers. On the one hand, the low gap open suggests shorter term chartists (15m, HR) could bounce it strongly on the open. On the other hand, longer term traders will see the 200 DMA lies just below the weak opening level. Is this the day the machines let the 200 MA buyers load up, then bust through their sell stops and try to crack the mirror? Could see some fireworks today …
Just in time for the summer selling season!
There goes unemployment.
http://katchum.blogspot.be/2013/07/single-family-housing-starts-vs.html
But my Realtor tells me this is the best time to buy a home!
Never mind the increase in property taxes (blood-sucking parasites gotta get theirs), maintenance costs, restrictive covenants, hoa dues, ad nauseum, ad infinitum...
Must be coming up to the end of another QE. These numbers show the effects of QE and who has really been buying homes (especially since most Americans cannot afford the average priced home). Of course, these numbers will get even worse over the next few months, and along with the upcoming 5% market 'crash' - the Fed will need to restart QE - again.
No way is the economy going to grow into this stock market valuation.
still more starts than they can sell i'll bet
Exactly. We need zero housing starts so that the existing inventory can clear. That would be a sign of health returning to the economy. Building our own mini-park versions of Chinese ghost cities while we have millions of houses just sitting around empty is nothing but QE-greased misallocation.
I agree that could work but not in a collapsing economy, no jobs, no mortgages unless the sandoz labs inspired, taxpayer backed suicide loan market is revived stat!
..revived some more I guess.
Now if they'd just offer a free BJ with every house sold ...
and if you want to fill up airliners: topless 'high-end club quality' stewardesses
All of the homebuilders have abandoned their housing projects for the much more lucrative government sponsored Section 8 "4 star resort" building contracts.
Obviously the solution to this is to build more multi-million dollar homes since that's the only portion of the market that's growing.
Polar vortex in oklahoma today ! Watch out n construction no spending but stock market goes up and gold goes down. Only in America, lets all party naked like the show n vh1. Wtf is going on
It will get better once the polar vortex is gone.
Wall Street Bi-polar Vortex Syndrome. heh.
time to kill the money grubbers in washington and wall street. Break up the crooked banks!
"Break up the crooked banks! "
Redundant, but I agree.
Wait until higher property taxes kick in this Fall. In many areas around Houston property taxes are a whopping 3.5% or higher. That's some serious coin on those > $500k houses. [That's $17,500 after-tax income on a $500k house].
Just a tiny cut-back in jobs/salaries could throw 'm a mean cruve.
Absolutely correct, a couple of well placed gvt. funded proxy buy outs and even a flaccid housing market like this one can justify raising property taxes.
If merely manipulating the increased worth doesn't actually cover they can always just raise the tare rates... it's a time honored method of separating the bag holder from his disposable income they believe philosophically belongs to the government anyway, when the demands of government are not being covered willingly (through normal market method) they will be forced to get creative.