"Seasonal Adjustment" Swings Initial Jobless Claims From 6-Month Highs To Cycle Lows

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments after today's Microsoft record layoff announcement we tweeted the following:

Once again we were spot on.

Because as the DOL just reported, yet again the fate of the US economy is left to seasonal adjustments. Non-seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims surged over 47,000 this week to its worst in 6-months. But by the magic of PhD adjustment, this translated into 3,000 seasonally-adjusted drop from last week, beating expectations and printing near 'recovery' cycle lows. We can only imagine the adjustments needed to cope with Microsoft's layoffs. 2014 has seen the smallest percentage drop in initial claims since the crisis began.

Initial Claims raw data: non-seasonally-adjusted - not exactly the picture of health.

 

But ignore that and focus on seasonally-manipulated data.

To be clear, real initial claims are soaring but the magical data released to the public is dropping...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:48 | 4966780 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

you gutta love the artistry of this fraud!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:52 | 4966795 ShorTed
ShorTed's picture

Don't worry about Microsoft job cuts.  We're actually exporting that portion of our "recovery" to Finland.  I'm sure they'll find a way to express their gratitude.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:35 | 4966987 philipat
philipat's picture

Why does nobody ever challenge what precisely is the methodology of the "Seasonal Adjustments"? In the case of most data series, it is adequate to compare YOY and MAT data to view trends and which automatically adjust for seasonality. So Why are "Seasonal Adjustments" even necessary over and beyond YOY/MAT? Unless of course, this is simply a "Fudge Factor" designed purely to confuse with BS? Hmmm......

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 10:01 | 4967160 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

If your boss complains your productivity is down; just tell him that 'seasonally-adjusted,' it's actually up...

 

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:37 | 4967011 philipat
philipat's picture

Actually Belgium not Finland??

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:48 | 4966781 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Declare Victory.... Run away, don't come back.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:50 | 4966785 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

More from Team Circus!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:51 | 4966787 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

Can someone explain to me what exactly seasonal adjustment is but more importantly why it is applied? i apologise in advance for my stupidity.....:(

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 10:05 | 4967179 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Seasonal Adjustment: Adding spices, seasonings and enhancements to flat, distasteful items to make them more pallatable.

Last night I 'seasonally-adjusted' my meatloaf...

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:51 | 4966788 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Must be the whether.

Whether to replace the thumb on the scales,with your bum on the scale.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:54 | 4966808 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

Also it might be weather

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:55 | 4966813 MeMongo
MeMongo's picture

Mongo only pawn in the game of life! But he's certainly digging the ZH ads with all the hot boom boom girls. No need in guessing which assets their pushing.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:51 | 4966789 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

2014 has seen the smallest percentage drop in initial claims since the crisis began.

 

After 5 years of this mess there arent that many people left in the work force.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:51 | 4966791 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

This whole economy is "seasonally adjusted" WTF else is new. They print whatever they want then revise them later when no one is looking.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:52 | 4966792 ekm1
ekm1's picture

My GDP estimations since May 2013:

 

USA, -4%

 

CHINA, -8%

 

CANADA, -2%

 

GERMANY, -2%

 

EUROPEAN UNION, -6%

 

WORLD, -5%

 

This year is still running at the same shrinkage rate.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:54 | 4966805 semperfi
semperfi's picture

polar vortex increased the shrinkage rate in males over 50

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:54 | 4966810 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Hmmmm. Hmmmmm heh heh heh...... You said shrinkage.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:57 | 4966797 semperfi
semperfi's picture

and for my seasonal adjustments, I sold 47 unicorns to the Easter bunny and tooth fairy last month

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:39 | 4967022 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I am less interested in your sales, and more interested in your inventory...did it rise?

 

Because that is what will boost GDP...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:40 | 4967032 philipat
philipat's picture

Using Derivatives I would assume??...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:55 | 4966799 Aknownymouse
Aknownymouse's picture

It is now called macroprudential data.

Just an innocent question. Why is data ever seasonally adjusted? If the seasons are already factored in everybody's knowledge of life. Also why not rely on moving averages instead? Just a simple thought from a ZH moron.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:56 | 4966820 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

SA are nothing more than a jobs program.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:33 | 4966994 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Apparently not a very good one. "More road building!"

Too bad no one is driving on the highway anymore.

Epic drawdown in oil inventories...distillates still through the roof though.

6 years into "more of the same" and it sure looks like only three States are in recovery: Texas, North Dakota and Alaska.

Still hopeful for Minnestota and Wisconsin but we'll see.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:53 | 4966802 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I just graduated college with $100,000 in student loan debt and a degree in burger flipping. My future never looked brighter.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:55 | 4966814 semperfi
semperfi's picture

You have my full sympathy - you already have a house mortgage.  I'm trying to get my 2 kids thru college without any debt like my parents did for me (thank God) but its not looking good

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:28 | 4966966 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Me too.  First 2 made it...... one off to Medical school, other PHd from Johns Hopkins in genetics.  The 3rd is gonna be tough and will likely delay my retirement indefinately.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:36 | 4967007 semperfi
semperfi's picture

solution: get the PHd (assume now positive cash flowing) to help fund the 3rd  ;)

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:59 | 4966829 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

You gonna make a great donkey!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:00 | 4966833 semperfi
semperfi's picture

wait - seasonally adjusted, your debt is only $50,000

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 13:09 | 4968567 tolivian
tolivian's picture

You got a degree in Burger Flipping?!?!

Damn my university didn't offer anything that practical. I paid a high four year tuition and majored in "American Studies."

You would be surprised at the complete lack of job openings requiring an American Studies major. What is happening with this country? Doesn't it want to be studied anymore?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:57 | 4966806 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

I have found Shadowstats to be a pretty good resource. He has written extensively about the seasonal and other bias built into these, and other numbers. Conclusion is economy is much weaker than government reporting would suggest. But then you already knew that....

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:01 | 4966845 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Barry, the Fed and Wall Street have to present the illusion that the recovery has taken hold and there is growth.  LOL, the US is exceptional, exceptional at lies and cooking the stats.

Barry wants to start a cold war with Russia. He's messing with the wrong country. Doesn't he have enough with the middle east?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:57 | 4966822 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

With warm greetings from Caracas.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 08:58 | 4966826 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Do they just think we are stupid? Seasonally adjusted BULL CRAP ? Its fall here in Oklahoma City so is that what the adjustment is for? See I to can make as much sence as these dumbass politicians.Hey yall the world is going fine and the sky is not falling and Putin is happy today. Now these are fairy tails!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:02 | 4966847 semperfi
semperfi's picture

>>Do they just think we are stupid?

actually, yes

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:44 | 4967066 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

That plus they have a monopoly on the use of force so they don't care what we think. The numbers are all meant for the algos and for political speaches. They know that the algos are stupid and will believe whatever they say.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:00 | 4966834 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Obama continues to lie, while the eCONomy continues to die.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:02 | 4966852 semperfi
semperfi's picture

he's succeeding wildly - that's been his plan all along

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:01 | 4966839 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Do they just think we are stupid? Seasonally adjusted BULL CRAP ? Its fall here in Oklahoma City so is that what the adjustment is for? See I to can make as much sence as these dumbass politicians.Hey yall the world is going fine and the sky is not falling and Putin is happy today. Now these are fairy tails!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:09 | 4966882 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

They do not think you are stupid.  They do, however, believe the majority to be more interested in any sport involving a ball.....

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:24 | 4966948 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The algos will decide, the Great OZ behind the curtain is bullish for certain. Tap your toes three times, there's no place like stawks theres no place like stawks.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:14 | 4966909 SoDamnMad
SoDamnMad's picture

You read the explanation of what is issued here to find out the truth then go to Market Watch and view the SPINNNNNN

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 09:59 | 4967143 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

Looks like we just "crossed another red line".

 

 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 10:17 | 4967240 Hohum
Hohum's picture

This article is reaching a little bit.  NSA claims usually rise this time of year.  NSA still down 40-50K year over year.  The job crunch, though, will hit.  Be patient.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 13:13 | 4968432 tolivian
tolivian's picture

Another perspective from Reuters:

"U.S. economy gaining traction despite weak housing"

They further note that slump in housing shoud be "taken with grain of salt" given strength in employment

No mention of size of seasonal adjustment. I guess they blindly accept govt figures

Wonder how they figure in the coming 18,000 layoff by MSFT

Poor housing data dismissed with reference to positive NAHB survey! 

Resembles climate change debte where warmists argue one should ignore the actual data and rely instead on their notoriously unreliable models

Who ya gonna to believe: The actual data or your lying government?

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