Stocks Plunge, Gold/VIX Spike On Worst Airline Tragedy Since 9/11

Tyler Durden's picture


Despite an initial attempt to rally after the terrible news out of Ukraine hit, stocks were unable to mount any serious BTFD as uncertainty spread. Despite Bullard's best efforts, bond yields crashed lower (over 7bps today) with 10Y at 2.45% near the lowest close in 13 months. Gold prices jumped over $20 (even as the USD Index flatlined - though JPY strengthened notably as risk-off set in). VIX exploded 3.7 vols (its biggest swing - 45% - since Aug 2011). Equity markets cratered into the close as Israel ground invasion news (A White House Lockdown) added to the concerns leaving all US markets red post-payrolls and red post-Yellen. The S&P 500 dropped 1.18% - its biggest drop in 3 months. The Russell 2000 is now down 2.5% year-to-date.

The S&P dropped more than 1% for the first time in over 3 months...




The Day in VIX and S&P 500...


Credit markets getting very nervous...


Post Payrolls...


Post Yellen...




A gentle reminder of how anxious bonds and JPY carry has been... stocks starting to catch down as repo fails disallow the BTFD move...


VIX exploded...



Despite Bullard's best efforts to explain why bonds are in a bubble.. and BofA's Macneil Curry:



Bond yields collapsed..


Gold ansd silver spiked on the MH17 news and oil surged - adding to gains as Israel new hit..


Summing it all up:


We're gonna need moar buybacks...

CNBC thoughtfully opined "This is the teflon stock market... nothing has hurt it in the past... maybe this is a buying opportunity"


Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Russell 2000 broke 15 year trendline against S&P 500


Bonus Bonus Chart: VIX's 14th biggest gain in history...


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Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:09 | 4969799 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Moar noise


Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:15 | 4969844 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Obammy missed Putins plane.  Innocent civilians took the brunt.  White House needs to go on lockdown.  War is heating up, do you see it?

Community organizer vs KGB vet?  lol.  Putin will win.


Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:16 | 4969860 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture



I'm sure Sunday will bring Sunshine and Unicorns.  


After all, the numbers say that it is so.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:18 | 4969869 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

We really did NOT have much of a sell-off today.  I certainly would not call it a "crater."  The 10th of April was a better "crater" -- and 1/24/14 & 2/3/14 were even better!

$INDU    -0.94%
$RUI    -1.17%
$SPX.X    -1.18%
$RUA    -1.20%
$NDX.X    -1.38%
$TRAN    -1.41%
$RUT    -1.56%

The VIX had a healthy move up +33.7%  You would think there would have been more of a sell-off today, given all the political unrest.

I've been waiting to witness the next full-on market crash from the comfort of my trading room, but now I fear that I might be tempted by the nice weather and warm water, and ultimately miss the big bang while hanging out at the beach.

Oh well

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:25 | 4969934 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

However, my mining stocks and mining ETF's were kicking ass today. 

Man...when the mining sector eventually gets hot and takes off it's going to be insane.  That's when real gold and silver phyzz will blast off the launch pad. 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 22:02 | 4971591 max2205
max2205's picture

Mono stocks held up losses less than 1%.... Maybe Friday?

Didn't look like panic to me... BFD BTFD

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:53 | 4970086 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  No kidding. JFC the Dow is down 160 and it isn't even 1%. That just goes to show how pathetically overbought these markets are!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:17 | 4969864 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Help keep yourself strong vs. a possible war.  Gold, silver and platinum.  Even a little Bitcoin (for diversification).


Preparation is perhaps more critical than ever...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:19 | 4969887 Thought Processor
Thought Processor's picture



Is anyone real even in these fabricated markets anymore?


ie:  If a stock crashes in the forest will anyone hear it?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:25 | 4969933 pakled
pakled's picture

"If a stock crashes in the forest will anyone hear it?"


Maybe the Binars.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:48 | 4970031 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture


The sinews of war are infinite money.

Marcus Tullius Cicero (44BC Philippics)



Thu, 07/17/2014 - 21:05 | 4971335 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

exactly, wake me when the spoos are locked limit down and maybe we have something going. 

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:10 | 4969804 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

…but ALL the Fed’s whoredogs and ALL the Fed’s men, couldn’t get Rampy-Dowee above 17,000 again… The End.  Until tomorrow, sleep tight, bitchez…

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:12 | 4969808 asscannon101
asscannon101's picture

…but ALL the Fed’s whoredogs and ALL the Fed’s men, couldn’t get Rampy-Dowee above 17,000 again… The End.  Until tomorrow, sleep tight, bitchez…


Double-tap. It went off in my hand- honest!!


Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:12 | 4969827 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

It's peak double postings today.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:18 | 4969878 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

That's just the start. Technical glitches, ya know.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:18 | 4969881 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

That's just the start. Technical glitches, ya know.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:25 | 4969922 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

The double posts are the result on impatient folks on ZH.  When you hit the "SAVE" button, the server (Java) goes off and does its thing.  When the system is slow and you hit the SAVE button, you may think nothing is happening, but if you look up at the "bug" (the things that spins around), you will see that the server is working.

If you hit the SAVE button again, and again, each press will result in an addition post.


So...  Just be patient....

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:29 | 4969954 pakled
pakled's picture

I've been getting a lot of 404s on ZH the past two days. But also I am on satellite. Subject to solar activity. (Really)


And by the way, normally a script can be coded to gray out the SAVE button once clicked. Just sayin'.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:40 | 4970885 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Actually I've had 2-3 posts from a single press of the Save button.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:11 | 4969813 ENTP
ENTP's picture

I'm giving it 10 days before we hit new ATH.  

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:17 | 4969868 pods
pods's picture

I'll take the under on that one.


Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:19 | 4969882 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Damn Pods,  You beat me to that one!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:13 | 4969815 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Will take only few minutes tomorrow to retrace all those losses. Or premarket futures Levitation (out of nowhere on zero volume) will easily fix this...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:11 | 4969818 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

It will take few minutes tomorrow to retrace all those losses. All premarket futures Levitation (out of nowhere) will easily fix this...

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:25 | 4969929 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The overnight guys are already warming up the machines.  We'll retrace more than half of this drop before the market opens tomorrow.  Consumer sentiment will beat and we'll rocket (pun intended) higher throughout the day.  This whole drop will be a memory before happy hour.



Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:11 | 4969820 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

But,but, everyone said WWIII was bullish.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 22:04 | 4971602 max2205
max2205's picture

Buy at the first bullets... Or SAMs.... all fucked up now

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:12 | 4969832 kowalli
kowalli's picture

so -2.9 gdp done nothing to stocks, but some plane -1%, cool

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:13 | 4969841 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

i bought gold a couple of days before this, no, no insider information

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:19 | 4969856 pakled
pakled's picture

OK, the last few weeks of ZH posts. Is it starting to feel like we're about to hit the breaking point? I mean, not the usual -it feels like were about to hit the breaking point- mantra, which is always in play since 2009. But I mean, if it happened tomorrrow, meaning -stocks can't find the floor, bonds to the moon, PMs through the roof, currencies to the basement, armed conflict goes into high gear- we sure woudn't be contemplating our navels as to why.

Would we?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:21 | 4969895 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

i get a tingle down my leg, mean anything?

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:24 | 4969917 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Wet ?

Oh sorry,thought you said tinkle.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:18 | 4969876 pakled
pakled's picture

BTW - shows 6 carriers underway. I look at this nearly every day and do not recall when it hit that. It's normally around 3.


Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:22 | 4969902 starman
starman's picture

yeah yeah yeah yeah..................

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:22 | 4969910 ObamaDepression
ObamaDepression's picture

Fox reports US confirms plane brought down by Buk missile that was tracked.

Origin not yet determined.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:26 | 4969940 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

If it was tracked they already know.

Them not saying means its the Ukes that fired.

They are trying to work out how to cover it up right now,or doctoring the record.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:36 | 4969992 Abbie Normal
Abbie Normal's picture

Russian fighter jet shoots down a Ukrainian warplane.  Ukes retaliate by accidentally shooting down a passenger jet -- because Russian fighter jets aren't dumb enough to fly a straight line at 35000 ft.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 17:00 | 4970117 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

You lost me when I read the part about Fox news.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:27 | 4969943 Coletrane
Coletrane's picture

MOAR sanctions  !!!!

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:28 | 4969947 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

No worries. New Market high by Friday

Anyone checking Malaysian Airlines historical trades and activity yet? Or has it been purged already?

I noticed the big pile of passports found by the wreckage. Kinda reminds you of the "hijacker" passports showing up at. WTC..

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:27 | 4969951 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Jeebus Xmas...I put the Hedge down for one day and all Hell breaks loose.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:28 | 4969956 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Best to remember that the only thing that matters, oil, was ABOVE $101 before there was any Ukraine news.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 16:38 | 4970008 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I have a hard time imagining the guys who sold $3 billion in gold over the past few days (you know, the ones with the printing press, who run the markets) letting that short position go south on them.  More muppet bait.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:26 | 4970825 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

moar margin! MOAAAAARRRR

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 17:37 | 4970261 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

CNBC sez- 'Buy the fuckin dip you damn muppets!!'

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 17:44 | 4970297 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Not very much of a gold spike given what's taken place today.

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:08 | 4970738 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

219.4386= HVU1/9.9986 x SPY, for a rough trend=220 on that curve:
SPY could rise to $196.21 for the same HVU price (or vxx, uvxy), or HVU could rise to $3.22 for the same SPY price.

For the 285=equation trend, 286.972 = Gold / silver1/2 so silver's losing again a bit vs gold (this is much more accurate than any pondering on the gold/silver ratio)

silver2.913 / USLV = 133 for its trend lately & today's closing value punches out 136.686. As this number goes up the decay of USLV vs silver gets worse though as long as the power is in the 2.9 to 4 & above range it's still very good.

These equations come from scatterplots generated from data downloaded from & R2 is over 0.98 for all of them

Thu, 07/17/2014 - 19:53 | 4970961 chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Cool, is it going to go up, or down?

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 13:59 | 4984475 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

WAY up. Probably, before accounting for splits, to around 5000/share equivalent. While splits will happen along the way there the actual price-value of any holdings will not change since you get more shares for an equal ratio of price reduction per share.

So for example 5000/share matches up with 93 or so for the SPY, nearly 930 for S&P500 index. With the equation you can line up multiple prices for different exit-times and do that with any shares you have. Now would be the ideal time to load up. Just don't get greedy.

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