Euro Tumbles As Italy Slashes Growth Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture

The Euro is tumbling as Italy slashes economic growth expectations:


The Bank of Italy expected 0.7% growth for 2014 in January and this shift lowers the estimate below consensus. Of course, there's no need to wqory about a triple-dip recession as Italy raised its 2015 estimate from 1.0% to 1.3% - hockey sticks are back...


Bank of Italy slashes 2014 growth expectations...


and that resulted in what Draghi could not manage...

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LawsofPhysics's picture

Race to the bottom...

same as it ever was.

SilverIsMoney's picture

And yet Gold is down almost $20 since yesterday... Nothing to see here folks...

Pheonyte's picture

That's my fault. I bought some yesterday.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I don't allow Mrs. Cog near the precious metals purchase funds anymore. She's a real downer. :)

Mrs. Cog's picture

lol right? I should put out a public service announcement for ZHers when I buy so they know when the price is about to tank.

Al Huxley's picture

The secret to the gold market is to always do the exact opposite of what you want to do and what makes sense, and to always assume that sudden price spikes, especially when there's a news-related event that looks like a plausible cause, is a fake move by the bullion banks.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Lol. The George Castanza method of PM purchases. In fairness to Mrs. Cig we purchase when funds are available. Fiat cost averaging bitches.

Al Huxley's picture

Well, that's probably a way less stressful way to go about it, for sure.

LawsofPhysics's picture

"Fiat cost averaging bitches." ---  Yes, like everything else in life.  Personally, I love what I do, the fact that we are getting good prices for our soybeans and nuts is just a bonus.

Puncher75's picture

Me too. I guess we were the only ones

Puncher75's picture

Me too. I guess we were the only ones

AGoldhamster's picture

Super bullish - new ATH's for indices just around the corner.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Imagine if they used realistic inflation measurements when calculating 'real growth'.

Ghordius's picture

interesting. and what are realistic inflation measurements, in the eurozone? remember that our national PCIs have both food and energy in them. in fact, nearly all of this "terrible deflation" we have is decreases in food and energy prices

schatzi's picture

The largest increases in European prices happened in the years before the big bang, including the massive stealth increases during the national to € currency conversions. Currently TPTB are more keen on downplaying deflation than inflation. The periphery is in many parts stuck in a deflationary spiral (albeit a mild-slight one for goods&services and stronger deflation in the lower income wage segment), since the rigid € currency cannot adjust to individual national economic circumstances.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I trust no economic measurements produced by the governments/banks or public/private parties who are influenced by the governments/banks. If it is in their interest to manipulate those economic numbers, the numbers WILL be manipulated.

omrizario's picture

Everything will increase.. the next year. And in 2015 they will say the growth will come ... in 2016.

...out of space's picture

€ look like a good buy here 

Jayda1850's picture

Italy and growth should never be mentioned in the same sentence. The last time they had real, actual growth, it was called the Renaissance.

Ghordius's picture

hmmm... I vaguely remember when Italy surpassed the UK... am I that old? damn. well, at least this makes me a Renaissance Man

Jayda1850's picture

+1 for dating yourself and reminding me of a great danny devito movie.

Ghordius's picture

bless wikipedians for having an entry about it: Il_sorpasso_(economics)

"Il sorpasso (Italian for "the surpass") is the nickname given to the 1987 event wherein Italy's economy grew larger than that of Britain in absolute GDP terms. This made Italy the fifth largest economy in the World, after the United States, the USSR, Germany, and France. On 15 May 1991 Italy became for a while the fourth worldwide economic power, overtaking France, with a GDP of US$ 1.268 trillion, compared to France's GDP of US$ 1.209 trillion and Britain's of US$ 1.087 trillion. Despite this, however, Italy's alleged 1987 GDP growth of a phenomenal 18%, it was shortly re-overtaken by both France and the United Kingdom during the 1990s, when Italy's economic growth was particularly stagnant, with an average of 1.23% compared to an EU average of 2.28%."

schatzi's picture

Italy's alleged 1987 GDP growth of a phenomenal 18%


That clearly looks like a major accounting adjustment than actual growth. Reminds me of the planned inclusion of some parts of the informal sector into Italy's GDP calculations.

Winston Churchill's picture

Hard to tell anymore.

The Govt. lies from all sides ,for decades now, make any stat meaningless.

buzzsaw99's picture

Italy's motto: We have moar debt than GE

hairball48's picture

Like my T-shirt says, "Hi, I don't care, Thanks"

Quinvarius's picture

Yuan actually popped a little on that news.

disabledvet's picture

Time to ruck up bitches.

This is the Party everyone's been wanting.

ak_khanna's picture

The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.

There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover. 

The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.

LawsofPhysics's picture

True, but one must also realize that there are now 7+ billion (and growing) people all competing for a better quality of life and all the calories that make that possible.  So, in that regard, there is plenty of demand.

Define "real economy", if 2/3 of the planet stop using the dollar for exchange, anything or any economy priced in dollars becomes pretty irrelevant pretty fucking quickly.

Ness.'s picture

That explains why S&P futures are making new highs.  It IS Friday afterall, and we all know that the weekends in the Hamptons are much better when we finish green on Friday.  Slam gold, slam vix and buy stawks.  Same as it ever was.

MFL8240's picture

Gold down because the airline being downed is just a flash in the pan, no big deal back to manipulation by the American sewage sytem!

Pheonyte's picture

Yup, flashing screens have reduced our give-a-shit-span to about the length of a commercial.

JenkinsLane's picture

Surely the solution is to include Mafia-related activities in Italy's GDP measurement?

Doing so may not lead to growth over the longer term but in the short term the addition

would cause Italy's GDP to jump by 10%+ overnight. If nothing else, it would make

Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio look more palatable.



ejmoosa's picture

Whatever their forecast, you know the reality will be much weaker than the forecast.

Mr_Wonderful's picture

It was Ukraine. So it´s safely within the Mob and therefore just an accident. Extremely bullish.

yogibear's picture

LOL, all those PIIGS are starting to smell again.

That Brussels bailout perfume didn't cover the smell permanently.  


TRENDHOUND's picture

Draghi to the rescue pls. 2014 gdp is shite then 2015 will be stellar. If not 2015 then 2016, and so on.Sustainable growth is just around the corner, isn't it? They are all comedians.

Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

if you didn't buy the dip yesterday, you missed out. The market sees geopolitical concerns as a springboard to higher levels. Just gives everyone a dip to buy with all their "cash on the sidelines."

AGoldhamster's picture

berlusconi's revenche

Stonedog's picture

Of course this means a negative print going forward...

Stonedog's picture

Of course this means a negative print going forward...

Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Was that revision inclusive of the hookers and blow, and if yes, is that an apples-to-apples comparison QoQ/YoY?

jubber's picture

FTSEMIB up just the 300 points 10y BTP futures down a whole 12 points

Devon's picture

ZH can't be right. The IMF after the second Greek bailout forecast gowth rates in the EZ as being between 3-4%. How could the fragrant Lagarde be wrong, and it isn't that she would ever lie.

Luckhasit's picture

What happened, the hookers and blow didn't add that much? Or is Italy in that much of a slump that they didn't save those GDP estimates?