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Euro Tumbles As Italy Slashes Growth Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Euro is tumbling as Italy slashes economic growth expectations:

  • *BANK OF ITALY SEES ITALY GDP UP 0.2% THIS YR, 1.3% IN 2015
  • *BANK OF ITALY SEES DOWNSIDE RISKS FOR ITALY GROWTH EST. THIS YR

The Bank of Italy expected 0.7% growth for 2014 in January and this shift lowers the estimate below consensus. Of course, there's no need to wqory about a triple-dip recession as Italy raised its 2015 estimate from 1.0% to 1.3% - hockey sticks are back...

 

Bank of Italy slashes 2014 growth expectations...

 

and that resulted in what Draghi could not manage...

 

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Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:21 | 4972825 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Race to the bottom...

same as it ever was.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:22 | 4972826 SilverIsMoney
SilverIsMoney's picture

And yet Gold is down almost $20 since yesterday... Nothing to see here folks...

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:23 | 4972836 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

That's my fault. I bought some yesterday.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:24 | 4972847 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I don't allow Mrs. Cog near the precious metals purchase funds anymore. She's a real downer. :)

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:30 | 4972871 Mrs. Cog
Mrs. Cog's picture

lol right? I should put out a public service announcement for ZHers when I buy so they know when the price is about to tank.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:46 | 4972929 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

The secret to the gold market is to always do the exact opposite of what you want to do and what makes sense, and to always assume that sudden price spikes, especially when there's a news-related event that looks like a plausible cause, is a fake move by the bullion banks.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:50 | 4972949 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Lol. The George Castanza method of PM purchases. In fairness to Mrs. Cig we purchase when funds are available. Fiat cost averaging bitches.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:51 | 4972956 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Well, that's probably a way less stressful way to go about it, for sure.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:01 | 4972993 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Fiat cost averaging bitches." ---  Yes, like everything else in life.  Personally, I love what I do, the fact that we are getting good prices for our soybeans and nuts is just a bonus.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:31 | 4973189 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

Me too. I guess we were the only ones

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:31 | 4973191 Puncher75
Puncher75's picture

Me too. I guess we were the only ones

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:22 | 4972831 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Super bullish - new ATH's for indices just around the corner.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:23 | 4972837 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Imagine if they used realistic inflation measurements when calculating 'real growth'.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:34 | 4972885 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

interesting. and what are realistic inflation measurements, in the eurozone? remember that our national PCIs have both food and energy in them. in fact, nearly all of this "terrible deflation" we have is decreases in food and energy prices

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:56 | 4972975 schatzi
schatzi's picture

The largest increases in European prices happened in the years before the big bang, including the massive stealth increases during the national to € currency conversions. Currently TPTB are more keen on downplaying deflation than inflation. The periphery is in many parts stuck in a deflationary spiral (albeit a mild-slight one for goods&services and stronger deflation in the lower income wage segment), since the rigid € currency cannot adjust to individual national economic circumstances.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:01 | 4972996 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I trust no economic measurements produced by the governments/banks or public/private parties who are influenced by the governments/banks. If it is in their interest to manipulate those economic numbers, the numbers WILL be manipulated.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:23 | 4972838 omrizario
omrizario's picture

Everything will increase.. the next year. And in 2015 they will say the growth will come ... in 2016.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:34 | 4972886 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A goitre on every neck.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:51 | 4972955 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Isn't that from the mayor of Fukushima?

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:23 | 4972840 ...out of space
...out of space's picture

€ look like a good buy here 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:24 | 4972841 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

Italy and growth should never be mentioned in the same sentence. The last time they had real, actual growth, it was called the Renaissance.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:29 | 4972869 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hmmm... I vaguely remember when Italy surpassed the UK... am I that old? damn. well, at least this makes me a Renaissance Man

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:38 | 4972899 Jayda1850
Jayda1850's picture

+1 for dating yourself and reminding me of a great danny devito movie.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:43 | 4972912 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

bless wikipedians for having an entry about it: Il_sorpasso_(economics)

"Il sorpasso (Italian for "the surpass") is the nickname given to the 1987 event wherein Italy's economy grew larger than that of Britain in absolute GDP terms. This made Italy the fifth largest economy in the World, after the United States, the USSR, Germany, and France. On 15 May 1991 Italy became for a while the fourth worldwide economic power, overtaking France, with a GDP of US$ 1.268 trillion, compared to France's GDP of US$ 1.209 trillion and Britain's of US$ 1.087 trillion. Despite this, however, Italy's alleged 1987 GDP growth of a phenomenal 18%, it was shortly re-overtaken by both France and the United Kingdom during the 1990s, when Italy's economic growth was particularly stagnant, with an average of 1.23% compared to an EU average of 2.28%."

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:02 | 4973006 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Italy's alleged 1987 GDP growth of a phenomenal 18%

 

That clearly looks like a major accounting adjustment than actual growth. Reminds me of the planned inclusion of some parts of the informal sector into Italy's GDP calculations.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:39 | 4972905 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Hard to tell anymore.

The Govt. lies from all sides ,for decades now, make any stat meaningless.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:24 | 4972843 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Italy's motto: We have moar debt than GE

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:24 | 4972845 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Like my T-shirt says, "Hi, I don't care, Thanks"

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:26 | 4972857 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Yuan actually popped a little on that news.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:26 | 4972859 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Time to ruck up bitches.

This is the Party everyone's been wanting.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:28 | 4972863 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

The true extent of slowdown in the world economy can be judged by the data points which are not subjected to adjustments by the government. Eg. Change in Electricity and Fuel consumption, Ratio of working population to the total population of a country, Miles driven, Baltic Dry Index, Change in commercial Rental Rates etc.

There is no economic recovery because all the efforts of politicians, government, central banks etc are focused on saving banks instead of targeting job creation which is the only way economy can recover. 

The weakness in the democratic process ensures the victory of the Wall Street over the Real Economy for the foreseeable future. Things are definitely going to get much much worse before they get better for the real economy i.e. for more than 90% of the population.

www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:37 | 4972872 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

True, but one must also realize that there are now 7+ billion (and growing) people all competing for a better quality of life and all the calories that make that possible.  So, in that regard, there is plenty of demand.

Define "real economy", if 2/3 of the planet stop using the dollar for exchange, anything or any economy priced in dollars becomes pretty irrelevant pretty fucking quickly.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:28 | 4972864 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

That explains why S&P futures are making new highs.  It IS Friday afterall, and we all know that the weekends in the Hamptons are much better when we finish green on Friday.  Slam gold, slam vix and buy stawks.  Same as it ever was.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:28 | 4972865 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Gold down because the airline being downed is just a flash in the pan, no big deal back to manipulation by the American sewage sytem!

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:36 | 4972893 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

Yup, flashing screens have reduced our give-a-shit-span to about the length of a commercial.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:32 | 4972876 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Surely the solution is to include Mafia-related activities in Italy's GDP measurement?

Doing so may not lead to growth over the longer term but in the short term the addition

would cause Italy's GDP to jump by 10%+ overnight. If nothing else, it would make

Italy's debt-to-GDP ratio look more palatable.

 

 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:32 | 4972877 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Whatever their forecast, you know the reality will be much weaker than the forecast.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:33 | 4972882 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

It was Ukraine. So it´s safely within the Mob and therefore just an accident. Extremely bullish.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:34 | 4972883 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Very Bullish!!

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:34 | 4972889 yogibear
yogibear's picture

LOL, all those PIIGS are starting to smell again.

That Brussels bailout perfume didn't cover the smell permanently.  

 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:36 | 4972892 TRENDHOUND
TRENDHOUND's picture

Draghi to the rescue pls. 2014 gdp is shite then 2015 will be stellar. If not 2015 then 2016, and so on.Sustainable growth is just around the corner, isn't it? They are all comedians.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:36 | 4972896 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

if you didn't buy the dip yesterday, you missed out. The market sees geopolitical concerns as a springboard to higher levels. Just gives everyone a dip to buy with all their "cash on the sidelines."

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:40 | 4972906 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

berlusconi's revenche

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:51 | 4972951 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Of course this means a negative print going forward...

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:51 | 4972953 Stonedog
Stonedog's picture

Of course this means a negative print going forward...

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 09:52 | 4972961 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Was that revision inclusive of the hookers and blow, and if yes, is that an apples-to-apples comparison QoQ/YoY?

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:02 | 4973005 jubber
jubber's picture

FTSEMIB up just the 300 points 10y BTP futures down a whole 12 points

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:24 | 4973152 Devon
Devon's picture

ZH can't be right. The IMF after the second Greek bailout forecast gowth rates in the EZ as being between 3-4%. How could the fragrant Lagarde be wrong, and it isn't that she would ever lie.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 10:32 | 4973207 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

What happened, the hookers and blow didn't add that much? Or is Italy in that much of a slump that they didn't save those GDP estimates?

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