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This Is Not Your Grandma's Business Cycle

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Presented with little comment aside to ask - in all frankness - does this look like a 'recovering' economy five years after a central bank unleashes its extreme monetary policy?

 

#1 - Are builders really as bullish as NAHB Sentiment suggests?

 

#2 - As Mortgage Applications plunge to 13-Year lows...

 

 

Just what happens if interest rates ever rise?

 

Charts: Bloomberg h/t Brad Wisack

 

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Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:21 | 4975575 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

Price is truth? 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:42 | 4975634 DJ Happy Ending
DJ Happy Ending's picture

We are all Japanese now.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:18 | 4975732 Chris Jusset
Chris Jusset's picture

Q: "Just what happens if interest rates ever rise?"

A: KABOOM ! ! ! ! !

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 20:47 | 4976001 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Interest rates can be controlled and so will be controlled.

I'm betting Bernacke is correct...we will not see higher rates in his lifetime.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 21:07 | 4976065 max2205
max2205's picture

Reverse mortgage baby, before it's taken away

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 08:30 | 4976648 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

. . .  so if I  short  Treasurys and then  put out a contract on Bernanke . . .

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:23 | 4975581 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Gramma would not have put up with this shit.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:27 | 4975595 adr
adr's picture

Grammar says Grandpa died back in 91 because he never would have been able to put up with the shit over the past 20 years.

He would have tried to crash a plane into one of several buildings in Washington.

He said we always fought the wrong people. 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:45 | 4975644 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

And he got it all from Aunt Ila, the true rebel.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:25 | 4975586 Cattender
Cattender's picture

printing up money Never Fails... it ALWAYS Leads to Economic GROWTH... just LOOK at the stock market!

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:25 | 4975588 USS Bernanke
USS Bernanke's picture

What happens if interest rates rise?

An inverse short squeeze on the value of currency.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:27 | 4975591 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Does a builder bullshit in the woods?

Builders are always bullish after a few beers creating bullshit.  

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:27 | 4975592 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

How long until interest rates hit -100% (the mathematically certain long-term target with current polices) ? And how exactly would that work?

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:26 | 4975594 t0mmyBerg
t0mmyBerg's picture

Interest rates rise?  You have answered your own question.  Interest rates will never rise.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:01 | 4975685 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

True enough, but since the fed is as close to zero bound cost of the origination of credit, all the debt being carried around will eventually start eating away like corrosive acid. The trick was a declining interest rate structure, not a flat lined interest rate structure.

LOL

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:17 | 4975729 dock3511
dock3511's picture

Rates MUST rise, or hyperinflate. 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 20:48 | 4976010 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

dock3511

and now you know....Weimar days are here again...

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:33 | 4975612 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

It looks like an economy that encourages and rewards people for NOT working. The beauty of making someone work for $10 an hour is that they eventually figure out that "as long as I have to go to work every day I might as well work harder and try to find a job that pays me $15 an hour". Once you let them stay at home, the desire to work - or work harder - goes away.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:49 | 4975654 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

You better get used to having lots of non-working people around.   As there's more and more automation of jobs held by the people below 50% average intelligence, there's less jobs for these kind of people and less need for these kind of people.    As we've only got two political teams in the US there are only two solutions:

1)  Red Team:  Let the below average people die

2)  Blue Team:  Keep the below averge people alive.

If you were in the bottom 50% rank who would you vote for? 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:15 | 4975724 dock3511
dock3511's picture

Red Team does not think that way, dink. 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:31 | 4976287 litemine
litemine's picture

No? Somehow  thats not what I see.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:31 | 4976288 litemine
litemine's picture

No? Somehow  thats not what I see.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:31 | 4976289 litemine
litemine's picture

No? Somehow  thats not what I see.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:32 | 4976293 litemine
litemine's picture

No? Somehow,  thats not what I see.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:33 | 4976294 litemine
litemine's picture

No? Somehow,  thats not what I see.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 11:48 | 4976975 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

I think we know which side of the median you fall on. Mr click too much.

if you think your life is made possible by either political party you really don't understand the world in which you live.

Go back and contemplate the entire scheme of things and realize red or blue is inconsequential. Like hot and cold they are both water - understand how water works not its temperature.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 10:27 | 4976801 all-priced-in
all-priced-in's picture

If there is a difference -

Red team wants people that are able - to earn it themselves

Blue team wants to take it from someone that earned it themselves and give it to the GROWING FSA that is too fucking lazy to even try and earn it themselves.

 

 

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 14:55 | 4977560 oooBooo
oooBooo's picture

The red team and the blue team don't mean what they say.

The red team has never done anything meaningful to reverse the welfare state. In fact they've usually expanded it. Like the blue team they like expanding the welfare state such that it aids the cronies. They too enjoy the dependent underclass as it makes an excellent political weapon.

If we really had a difference between parties they would reverse what each other does and we would maintain a particular level of liberty by flipping them back and forth. However, both advance the state, each talking their own particular brand of BS to attract fans.

 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:44 | 4975641 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

unrestricted immigration can fix that

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:03 | 4975688 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 There's lots of "Drought Ready Jobs" in Californistan  Buzz....

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 18:44 | 4975642 MickV
MickV's picture

It doesn't matter if rates rise. 60% of purchases are cash.

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 19:35 | 4975778 nosoeawe
nosoeawe's picture

Yellen is stuff that comes out of a drug addicted whores cunt after a nooner w/a john

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 20:35 | 4975966 blindman
blindman's picture

grandmas equity was stolen years ago
along with her cycles. even that stolen
property was hypothecated and rehypothed
over and over as she lost her mind and, as
the matriarch, spilled Alzheimer chaos upon
stolen "funds", leaving the children nothing
other than the truth and the funeral expenses.
the scam lives on, grandma moved on.
.
when humor remains to be found only in rejection
of the established cultural memes revolution
is a breath away. no?
.
the fundamental flaw is the fed itself,
criminals and thieves well pretending for a hundred years
before farmers, mechanics and gullible honest people.
eager to give it all to their masters of national
eradication, personal eradication excepting
their own property which is all the surface of the
world, and beyond.
a perfect scenario for grand mischief; providing they
accommodate and reward a class of acomplicing
clowns termed the middle class or those tempted
to such aspiration and representation. a clown show,
a circus is all that remains among the living bodies;
humor never sleeps, it just blinks.
that's life
p
never mind ....

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 20:51 | 4975985 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Amerika..It''s a third world nation that think itself first world. The psychological denial that is going on is epic. A side note I'm doing some Buddhist reading on dealing with dying there are apparently five stages to it denial, anger, bargaining, depression acceptance. Grandma is terminal and in stage 1 dealing with it.

 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 20:48 | 4976008 Beatscape
Beatscape's picture

Any rise in interest rates will be accompanied but an offsetting easing of loan standards.  Blowing back up the housing bubble is a key policy objective for the Fed.  Things never work out exactly as planned.  The Fed has been too successful in blowing back up the stock market bubble, but not successful in blowing back up the housing bubble. 

Fri, 07/18/2014 - 22:02 | 4976214 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Foreign invasion will fix everything.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 10:41 | 4976838 Whootie_who
Whootie_who's picture

You always forget that  the world is a big place and there are strong economies close by that could raise rates and attack savings that America so desperately needs not to mention the continued flow of businesses... north

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