What Recovery? US Macro Suffers Longest Streak Of Weakness Since Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture

Despite the best efforts of The Fed, its apologists, and the commission-taking talking-heads to persuade the world that the US economy is picking up and set to reach escape velocity any minute... the fact is, the US economy (judged on data not fantasy) is hurting. Consensus expectations for 2014 US GDP growth have collapsed from over 3.00% to a mere 1.7% now. But what is more critical is the incessant bleating that data is picking up and suggests a 2nd half recovery... it doesn't. US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.


US GDP expectations are collapsing (and this is 'pricing in' a H2 recovery bounce)...


But recent data says H2 is anything but positively surprising...


US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.

*  *  *

A glance at the chart above also shows something odd... US macro normally cycles back into the positive after dipping negative... as over-pessimism rotates to over-optimism - but this time the 'bounce' from over-pessimism failed in May.

US macro surprise data is considerably weaker than last year.

Charts: Bloomberg

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't worry, stocks will go up.

nink's picture

yep we all know "it's different this time"  BTFD

knukles's picture

Speech!  Speech!
Needs more upbeat encouragement.

astroloungers's picture

People who do not follow current events, read a newspaper or make any effort to stay informed know this. No one believes government

figures...most don't care. But everybody knows.

doctor10's picture

From here on out its all Putin's fault

JustObserving's picture

How many times we have to repeat that all US economic data have been fake for decades now?  Inflation has been understated by 4% to 6% for decades now.  The true size of the US economy is certainly under $10 trillion and debt to GDP is more than 200%.  But telling the truth is treason in an empire of lies:

Stock market participants might be in for a second quarter surprise. The result of many years of changes made to the official inflation measures is a substantially understated inflation rate. John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) provides inflation estimates based on previous official methodology when the Consumer Price Index still represented the cost of a constant standard of living. The 1.26% inflation measure used to deflate first quarter nominal GDP is unrealistic, as Americans who make purchases are aware.

A reasonable correction to the understated deflator gives a much higher first quarter contraction. The two main causes of inflation’s understatement are the substitution principle introduced during the Clinton regime and the hedonic adjustments ongoing since the 1980s that redefine price rises as quality improvements. Correcting for excessive hedonic adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 5%. Correcting for hedonic and substitution adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 8.5%.



Offthebeach's picture

You're really treading in terr-or-ism against the Amerk'n people.
Not directly, but their God working leaders, and damn fine financial institutions. Which, by meritorious wealth have been Godly rewarded with Gods bounty, ie they're rich.

NoDebt's picture

The "Summer of Recovery", baby.  Which one is this?  Four?  Five?  I've lost count.

knukles's picture

Depends on the number of green shoots taking hold in Joey "The Plugs" hairline.
Say, I'm exhauseted.  How's about a 16 day vacation to some fancy assed house somewhere secluded, for free?

Speech!  Speech!

NoDebt's picture

Stupid double post.

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

after a negative 2.9% Q1, growth in each subsequent quarter would have to average 3.25% to get to a 2014 average of 1.7%.

IT AINT HAPP'NEN, muthafuckaz.  Idiot "consensus" pipedreamers...

knukles's picture

Oh shit, Smegs!
They just found an unlimited amount of intangibles in that abandoned bag they searched during Warthooze the lock-down.

Hah ha ha ha ha ah ah hhhhaaahahha

Was that a fart?
No, it was something else.
Oh, OK

buzzsaw99's picture

gdp is a made up number

knukles's picture

That's denominated in made up money!

It just don't get any better than this shit now, do it?

Oldwood's picture

Maintaining the delusion is the only thing important now.

Living the dream.

jwthomps's picture

No.  They just found a box of uncounted ballots and Recovery won the election.

luna_man's picture



"Don't worry, stocks will go up."...Maybe, month and weekly "vix" says otherwise.


sometimes, charts can tell you something

gatorengineer's picture

with the rate that prices are going up 2% GDP for the year isnt hard to see....  sorry thats reality.  Wages are flat to downtrending.  so what we got here is a bad case of stagflation....

Pareto's picture

There's no free lunch.  If prices are rising, then, all else equal, real purchasing power is falling so you can't buy as much shit - and last I checked GDP = Price X Quantity of Shit.

HUGE_Gamma's picture

The data points only start to matter when stocks start to go down.

orangegeek's picture

Fed printed from day one knowing that more cash to the banks would lead to a bloated market


Fed also knew they would cause inflation


Fed also knew that bloated markets and jobs are unrelated and that job growth would be shit


So why did the Fed do all this?  Not for economy.  Not for main street.  Not for jobs.  But for more cash to their peers - other banks.


And for this we are jobless, broke and having to spend more on the same stuff.


Fuck you very much yellen.

Oldwood's picture

And none of it would have been possible if the economy had not been deliberately crashed. They might have as well put a gun to our "collective" heads.

Temerity Trader's picture

Geez, ZH uber-bears. You folks still don’t get it.  Okay, the data sucks…so what?  That just means more Fed money creation!  Duh.  So, it is really “great news”. The Fed Bank owns the economy and they will NOT let stocks drop, no way. The markets cannot be allowed to fail.  Millions are thrilled with their 401K gains. They didn’t have to work for the money, nor do any research into any companies…just sit back and Ben and Janet handed them free money.  $4.5 TRILLION so far, more to come. The fund managers all look like geniuses; many were probably ski instructors a year ago, until daddy got them a lucrative job on Wall Street.  Don’t need to know s_ _ _ , just buy the same bushel of stocks all the other fund managers are buying, and a nice big bonus and new BMW are yours at the end of the year.  The oligarchs are laughing at you perma-bears. Janet dances to their tune; she helps them get richer and hopes they will then help the little people out thru trickle-down. They won’t. So, she will create another Trillion if need be, and even more. Then the little people are encouraged to borrow these cheap Fed dollars and buy neat stuff they don’t even need. The Fed’s partner is the federal government, fully committed to massive deficit spending for decades to come. There is NO other way…none.  It is a massive jobs program just like student loans.


If this gets away from them, it will turn ugly real fast.  Fundamentals are so old school, it is ridiculous for bears to keep mentioning how stock buybacks are the only way companies can show improved P/E’s. So what?  Janet will hand CEOs more cheap trillions, and they will keep buying and getting bonuses.  Bottom line weak?  Layoff more parasitic workers and let them collect welfare instead.  Stock will soar.


Embrace the New Normal, it is here forever. Buy any stocks, the Fed will guarantee you easy profits, unless WWIII erupts, then buy defense stocks only.  Oh, and my God, please give all those conspiracy theories a rest.

ebworthen's picture

"If this gets away from them, it will turn ugly real fast."

At least your post had one good sentence.

"...parasitic workers..."

Would that be those making less than $100K/year?

People who are actually useful?

Yeah, that will work out.

Broken clock.

q99x2's picture

Things should have collapsed by now. Even according to Ray Dalio one of the worlds greatest thiefs, under 2% for this long and collapse.. What the hell is taking so long?

BTW is Greece going to default?

ebworthen's picture

"...since Lehman..."

Yup, another giant credit bubble to benefit banks/corporations/insurers.

The FED is there to backstop Wall Street's gambling while punishing Main Street.

I wonder what they will do when this bubble pops, make the debt $34 Trillion and hold "all is well" press conferences?

TVP's picture

In all likelihood, they will say something along the lines of -

"We have no tools left to fix the bursting of this massive bubble we ourselves created.  So, you're on your own now.  Go to hell, and suffer through the destruction that our kind has wrought along the way."


And remember, when words like these come from a female (or pseudo-female, in the cases of Yellen and Lagarde) no one can complain or say anything contradictory, less they suffer her wrath.  



turbochef69's picture

Love the comments here, so fucking sarcastic & hilarious!

Here's the real plan:

Build up 401's & IRA's to unsurpassed heights, then confiscate 40% and replace with "Patriot Bonds"

for that Myra 3%- Booyaaa

Fuck the dip-buy PM's, commodities, land  & REAL ASSETS.

AdvancingTime's picture

The economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around does not exist and is just a myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.

The American people and Main Street will tell you they are far from convinced that it is smooth sailing ahead. Huge weakness in the economy has been shown by numbers that barely get by even after record amounts of stimulus. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella.

Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.


Keltner Channel Surf's picture

What happens when ‘U.S. Macro’ blends with “Macro Prudential”?

Well . . . have you ever had an immediate, pressing need for Velcro, then realized you had two of the fuzzy pieces, with no ‘hooks’?

BeetleBailey's picture

Bullish news!

MOAR of the same....bring it...




TVP's picture

"In five to ten years, everything will collapse.  Then, when that happens, we go to WAR!"

- Marc Faber, 2009