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What Recovery? US Macro Suffers Longest Streak Of Weakness Since Lehman

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the best efforts of The Fed, its apologists, and the commission-taking talking-heads to persuade the world that the US economy is picking up and set to reach escape velocity any minute... the fact is, the US economy (judged on data not fantasy) is hurting. Consensus expectations for 2014 US GDP growth have collapsed from over 3.00% to a mere 1.7% now. But what is more critical is the incessant bleating that data is picking up and suggests a 2nd half recovery... it doesn't. US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.

 

US GDP expectations are collapsing (and this is 'pricing in' a H2 recovery bounce)...

 

But recent data says H2 is anything but positively surprising...

 

US Macro surprise data has been negative for over 21 weeks... the longest such spell of disappointment since Lehman.

*  *  *

A glance at the chart above also shows something odd... US macro normally cycles back into the positive after dipping negative... as over-pessimism rotates to over-optimism - but this time the 'bounce' from over-pessimism failed in May.

US macro surprise data is considerably weaker than last year.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Sat, 07/19/2014 - 19:48 | 4978388 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Don't worry, stocks will go up.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 19:52 | 4978396 Ward no. 6
Ward no. 6's picture

you can count on that....

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:19 | 4978471 nink
nink's picture

yep we all know "it's different this time"  BTFD

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:23 | 4978485 knukles
knukles's picture

Speech!  Speech!
Needs more upbeat encouragement.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:04 | 4978432 astroloungers
astroloungers's picture

People who do not follow current events, read a newspaper or make any effort to stay informed know this. No one believes government

figures...most don't care. But everybody knows.

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 06:58 | 4979222 doctor10
doctor10's picture

From here on out its all Putin's fault

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:01 | 4978393 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

How many times we have to repeat that all US economic data have been fake for decades now?  Inflation has been understated by 4% to 6% for decades now.  The true size of the US economy is certainly under $10 trillion and debt to GDP is more than 200%.  But telling the truth is treason in an empire of lies:

Stock market participants might be in for a second quarter surprise. The result of many years of changes made to the official inflation measures is a substantially understated inflation rate. John Williams (www.shadowstats.com) provides inflation estimates based on previous official methodology when the Consumer Price Index still represented the cost of a constant standard of living. The 1.26% inflation measure used to deflate first quarter nominal GDP is unrealistic, as Americans who make purchases are aware.

A reasonable correction to the understated deflator gives a much higher first quarter contraction. The two main causes of inflation’s understatement are the substitution principle introduced during the Clinton regime and the hedonic adjustments ongoing since the 1980s that redefine price rises as quality improvements. Correcting for excessive hedonic adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 5%. Correcting for hedonic and substitution adjustments gives a first quarter real GDP contraction of 8.5%.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/07/08/deteriorating-economic-outloo...

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:29 | 4978657 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

You're really treading in terr-or-ism against the Amerk'n people.
Not directly, but their God working leaders, and damn fine financial institutions. Which, by meritorious wealth have been Godly rewarded with Gods bounty, ie they're rich.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:00 | 4978422 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The "Summer of Recovery", baby.  Which one is this?  Four?  Five?  I've lost count.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:26 | 4978496 knukles
knukles's picture

Depends on the number of green shoots taking hold in Joey "The Plugs" hairline.
Say, I'm exhauseted.  How's about a 16 day vacation to some fancy assed house somewhere secluded, for free?

Speech!  Speech!

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:30 | 4978427 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Stupid double post.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:16 | 4978453 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

after a negative 2.9% Q1, growth in each subsequent quarter would have to average 3.25% to get to a 2014 average of 1.7%.

IT AINT HAPP'NEN, muthafuckaz.  Idiot "consensus" pipedreamers...

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:29 | 4978499 knukles
knukles's picture

Oh shit, Smegs!
They just found an unlimited amount of intangibles in that abandoned bag they searched during Warthooze the lock-down.

Hah ha ha ha ha ah ah hhhhaaahahha

Was that a fart?
No, it was something else.
Oh, OK

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:17 | 4978466 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

gdp is a made up number

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:29 | 4978503 knukles
knukles's picture

That's denominated in made up money!

It just don't get any better than this shit now, do it?

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:35 | 4978672 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Maintaining the delusion is the only thing important now.

Living the dream.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:46 | 4978537 jwthomps
jwthomps's picture

No.  They just found a box of uncounted ballots and Recovery won the election.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:37 | 4978519 luna_man
luna_man's picture

 

 

"Don't worry, stocks will go up."...Maybe, month and weekly "vix" says otherwise.

 

sometimes, charts can tell you something

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 20:39 | 4978527 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

with the rate that prices are going up 2% GDP for the year isnt hard to see....  sorry thats reality.  Wages are flat to downtrending.  so what we got here is a bad case of stagflation....

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:38 | 4978685 Pareto
Pareto's picture

There's no free lunch.  If prices are rising, then, all else equal, real purchasing power is falling so you can't buy as much shit - and last I checked GDP = Price X Quantity of Shit.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:10 | 4978609 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

The data points only start to matter when stocks start to go down.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:23 | 4978642 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Fed printed from day one knowing that more cash to the banks would lead to a bloated market

 

Fed also knew they would cause inflation

 

Fed also knew that bloated markets and jobs are unrelated and that job growth would be shit

 

So why did the Fed do all this?  Not for economy.  Not for main street.  Not for jobs.  But for more cash to their peers - other banks.

 

And for this we are jobless, broke and having to spend more on the same stuff.

 

Fuck you very much yellen.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:38 | 4978684 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

And none of it would have been possible if the economy had not been deliberately crashed. They might have as well put a gun to our "collective" heads.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 21:46 | 4978720 Temerity Trader
Temerity Trader's picture

Geez, ZH uber-bears. You folks still don’t get it.  Okay, the data sucks…so what?  That just means more Fed money creation!  Duh.  So, it is really “great news”. The Fed Bank owns the economy and they will NOT let stocks drop, no way. The markets cannot be allowed to fail.  Millions are thrilled with their 401K gains. They didn’t have to work for the money, nor do any research into any companies…just sit back and Ben and Janet handed them free money.  $4.5 TRILLION so far, more to come. The fund managers all look like geniuses; many were probably ski instructors a year ago, until daddy got them a lucrative job on Wall Street.  Don’t need to know s_ _ _ , just buy the same bushel of stocks all the other fund managers are buying, and a nice big bonus and new BMW are yours at the end of the year.  The oligarchs are laughing at you perma-bears. Janet dances to their tune; she helps them get richer and hopes they will then help the little people out thru trickle-down. They won’t. So, she will create another Trillion if need be, and even more. Then the little people are encouraged to borrow these cheap Fed dollars and buy neat stuff they don’t even need. The Fed’s partner is the federal government, fully committed to massive deficit spending for decades to come. There is NO other way…none.  It is a massive jobs program just like student loans.

 

If this gets away from them, it will turn ugly real fast.  Fundamentals are so old school, it is ridiculous for bears to keep mentioning how stock buybacks are the only way companies can show improved P/E’s. So what?  Janet will hand CEOs more cheap trillions, and they will keep buying and getting bonuses.  Bottom line weak?  Layoff more parasitic workers and let them collect welfare instead.  Stock will soar.

 

Embrace the New Normal, it is here forever. Buy any stocks, the Fed will guarantee you easy profits, unless WWIII erupts, then buy defense stocks only.  Oh, and my God, please give all those conspiracy theories a rest.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 22:39 | 4978845 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"If this gets away from them, it will turn ugly real fast."

At least your post had one good sentence.

"...parasitic workers..."

Would that be those making less than $100K/year?

People who are actually useful?

Yeah, that will work out.

Broken clock.

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 22:00 | 4978762 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Things should have collapsed by now. Even according to Ray Dalio one of the worlds greatest thiefs, under 2% for this long and collapse.. What the hell is taking so long?

BTW is Greece going to default?

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 22:36 | 4978840 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"...since Lehman..."

Yup, another giant credit bubble to benefit banks/corporations/insurers.

The FED is there to backstop Wall Street's gambling while punishing Main Street.

I wonder what they will do when this bubble pops, make the debt $34 Trillion and hold "all is well" press conferences?

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 14:50 | 4980544 TVP
TVP's picture

In all likelihood, they will say something along the lines of -

"We have no tools left to fix the bursting of this massive bubble we ourselves created.  So, you're on your own now.  Go to hell, and suffer through the destruction that our kind has wrought along the way."

 

And remember, when words like these come from a female (or pseudo-female, in the cases of Yellen and Lagarde) no one can complain or say anything contradictory, less they suffer her wrath.  

 

 

Sat, 07/19/2014 - 23:38 | 4978964 turbochef69
turbochef69's picture

Love the comments here, so fucking sarcastic & hilarious!

Here's the real plan:

Build up 401's & IRA's to unsurpassed heights, then confiscate 40% and replace with "Patriot Bonds"

for that Myra 3%- Booyaaa

Fuck the dip-buy PM's, commodities, land  & REAL ASSETS.

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 06:32 | 4979210 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The economic recovery that the media and talking heads have been bantering around does not exist and is just a myth. A manipulated stock market distorted by recent economic policy hides and mask the real truth, in many ways it is ground zero in the war to convince us all is well.

The American people and Main Street will tell you they are far from convinced that it is smooth sailing ahead. Huge weakness in the economy has been shown by numbers that barely get by even after record amounts of stimulus. Fact is if QE or the massive government deficit spending that props up our economy is removed it will fold like a cheap umbrella.

Recent changes in how the GDP is figured , which boosted growth thus reducing the debt to growth ratio, and attempts to spin poor numbers regarding employment have been met with skepticism. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/10/myth-of-economic-recovery.html

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 06:37 | 4979214 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

What happens when ‘U.S. Macro’ blends with “Macro Prudential”?

Well . . . have you ever had an immediate, pressing need for Velcro, then realized you had two of the fuzzy pieces, with no ‘hooks’?

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 08:00 | 4979282 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Bullish news!

MOAR of the same....bring it...

DOOM AND GLOOM = BULLISH/BULLSHIT/BALONEY/BUY BUY BUY...

 

.....MOTHERFUCKER....

Sun, 07/20/2014 - 14:46 | 4980529 TVP
TVP's picture

"In five to ten years, everything will collapse.  Then, when that happens, we go to WAR!"

- Marc Faber, 2009

 

 

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