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Oil Jumps As Stocks Dump-And-Pump But Close Lower

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Equity prices tumbled early on - giving up all Friday's gains - before rampaging phoenix-like (thanks to an AUDJPY driven short squeeze) back to 'unch' after rumors of ceasefire discussions in Israel rolled around trading desks. Oil - it appears - was looking at the death-toll (and the fact that Hamas can only accept a deal that denies Israel's existence) and soared back towards $105 (its 2nd biggest day in over a month) notably divergent from stocks. The Russell 2000 was the laggard all day (ramped the most of the lows on the squeeze) and Trannies the leader. Since the MH17 headlines hit, the Nasdaq is the only index green, Treasury yields are -4bps, and oil up almost $4. The USD ended the day unch, 30Y Yield -2.5bps, gold, silver, and copper up modestly, and VIX up 0.5 vols at 12.7. Stocks closed on the weak side.

 

Friday's gains gone then regained... V-shaped recoveries everywhere... lower highs though...

 

Shorts triple squeezed today... but ended weak...

 

On the day, the morning dump was met by the AUDJPY pump.... to fill the gap... The Russell 2000 is -1.4% YTD and has crossed its 200DMA every day in the last 3 days...

 

Since MH17 Headlines, most indices are still red except Nasdaq of course.. why not buy the most growth-sensitive stocks at a time when geopolitical angst look sset to slow global growth (ask Germany)..

 

AUDJPY was in charge all day...

 

As an FYI - we note the selling in US equity futures started as Europe opened...

 

Bonds sold off (yields rose) as Obama spoke and did not unleash more sanctions hell and rumors of cease-fire discussions helped..

 

Credit markets remain less exuberant at what great news world war 3 is...

 

It appears Oil prices are continuing to reflect notably concerns about geopolitical tensions... but stocks not (not oil inverted to show 'negative' implications)

 

And bonds appear to reflect safe haven concerns (or growth concerns) a little more than stocks...

 

Since MH17 headlines hit, gold and silver are up...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:10 | 4985025 Four chan
Four chan's picture

the markets are now the fed. since the banks gave the fed all its rotten mbs for cash to buy the market with. 
the fed printed an equivalent amount to the mbs and gave it for free to their franchises the banks namely the tbtf. 
the banks have put an equivalent of fed bucks into the market buying the whole thing from the bottom till today. 
the questions are, when are rates going up, when is the print going to stop? 

technicals mean little to nothing outside observing these two questions imo. 

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:32 | 4985108 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

If the markets were ONLY the Fed they wouldn't react to any human news.   Why would "the Fed" care about ML17 "noise" and dump stocks: to lock in winnings?   They don't every want to sell.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:36 | 4985121 Four chan
Four chan's picture

there has only been one direction since 2008, and those individual fools like us trying to go against it. truth.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:46 | 4985159 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Truth is for children.   There's only bullshit.  

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 17:04 | 4985227 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

O now thats spme truth watch out

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 17:08 | 4985252 max2205
max2205's picture

I think its time to take off till Oct

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:37 | 4985123 remain calm
remain calm's picture

The plan is in. How much gold do you have? The end is near. Good luck.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2014/pr14352.htm

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:47 | 4985163 WarHorse
WarHorse's picture

I'm sure futures expiry had nothing to do with today's oil price action .... can you say squeeze ... FFS

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 17:33 | 4985349 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Good catch.  Gas price is falling at the Roanoke hub.  I paid $3.07 yesterday, the lowest in months.

Given the season and the shitty local economy, I expect that to continue.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 18:06 | 4985450 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Oil was $103ish before Ukraine or Gaza ever hit any headlines. 

A quarter turn of the faucet by Russia can dictate everything.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:53 | 4985187 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

2 ounces more than I did 5 minutes ago.  Thanks for the reminder.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 17:03 | 4985222 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

nEVEr,NEVER and everything bs

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:14 | 4985044 oudinot
oudinot's picture

If one cannot audit the Fed how can we have any confidence that they are describing what actually they are doing?

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:21 | 4985074 john39
john39's picture

serf.  you don't get to question your master.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:19 | 4985066 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Plan Otto is being effected."

Everything else is just rhetoric now.
"Just pretend to look surprised."
Move along.

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:31 | 4985105 Senduko
Senduko's picture

Plan Otto? I'v seen this comment  before, got an article please? I want to read it. 

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 16:35 | 4985117 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Couldn't be any worse than "Plan 9 from Outer Space".

Mon, 07/21/2014 - 22:00 | 4986313 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

Unfortunately the world doesn't work in an 'x=y' correlation. If you keep peddling this nonsense then you will continually be disappointed.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!