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5 Reasons Why The Market Won't Crash Or Will

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

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Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:51 | 4994668 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Blah, blah, blah, blah.

Lance is moot squared.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:07 | 4994745 espirit
espirit's picture

This chart porn doesn't even get me aroused any more.

Meh, Matrix Metrics.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:09 | 4995045 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Just the title of this post is laughable...i clicked into it just so I was just curious how the posters rated this...2 out of 5....

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:52 | 4994670 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

5 reasons the market will not crash

 

1. the fed will not allow it to do so

2.see reason 1

3.see reason 1

4.see reason 1

5.see reason 1

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:12 | 4994769 jarana
jarana's picture

1 reason for not entering a place that requires you to believe you will never need to exit:

       i) There are other places that don't require it

          (at least the place resulting from the negation of such place).

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:52 | 4994672 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

"So, while I do not disagree with Paul's arguments for a continued bull market" = threw in towel.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:21 | 4994743 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Theyre both stock brokers. What do you expect ?

 

Are they gonna say ?  "There's no real economic recovery. The banks and other large corporations don't even have to use real accounting anymore. The stock market is going up because its a rigged casino and the Fed is making & giving out chips to the banks.  However, their actions have, in many ways, forced a lot of people to go into the market - if theyre going to get any return at all. What do you do, let your capital drain away earning zero ?  So, you place your bets and take your chances. Who knows how long they can keep this thing up ?  I sure don't.  And as far as getting out ahead of time, . . . ever heard of Black Monday 1987 when the market went down more than 20% in a single day ?  I can't predict anything any better than anyone else. No one has a crystal ball. I'll let you in on a little secret. The industry calls it 'investing', but its always been about 'speculating', which is damned close to gambling. There are no guarantees in life.. - - - And I'm not even going to get into the global political situation, the US dollar as reserve currency, and the national debt.  Afterall, I DO want to get some customers."

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:52 | 4994675 Pheonyte
Pheonyte's picture

1) No Recession In Sight.

Er, all we need is a negative print for Q2 and we're in a recession, n'est-ce pas?

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:04 | 4994732 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

The headline print won't be negative for Q2, but the 1st or 2nd revision sure as hell will be.  Markets will probably be late to the recession party (at least a recession according to governmental statistics - aka lies) and then the crash can begin?

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:07 | 4994748 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The crash of the slimy slush of credit derivative institutions.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:53 | 4994963 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

he is correct, there is no recession in sight because we have been in a depression for years.  

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:22 | 4995115 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Everyone seems to ignore that massive negative print, even with the "New" GDP calculations...... What ever happened to all that pent up demand in Q2 spending?.... I'll tell you, it didn't exist.  Why did it drop?... I'll tell you, every person laid off from the 2008 financial debacle went back to school, borrowed a shitload of student loans, paid off their credit card debt, used the residual to pay for living expenses, and WHAM... they graduated and spicket was turned off and they have to pay back all that money...  thats why discretionary consumer spending is non-existent.

Just my observation.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:34 | 4996173 IllusionOfChoice
IllusionOfChoice's picture

You hit the nail on the head. We get a negative GDP print, and not by just a little and everyone is still recovery rah-rah. If the numbers, which are questionable anyway come up negative, I would expect those that are selling the no recovery meme to reference it a little more.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:54 | 4994687 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

It don't crash until somebody big doesn't get paid (or accept what is given as payment).    Nothing else matters at this point.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:56 | 4994696 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Want to see it crash?  Just let me put our paltry savings back in and it will go into a tailspin.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:59 | 4994711 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Goldilocks economy. 

And then he goes on to tell us all how to manage the worst decline since the 1930s. Bernanke will not be regarded favorably by historians.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:04 | 4994730 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

In the future, there are no historians. Just warmin' you guys up to the concept. May or may not manifest, but it's a concept to give credence to.

Also, our story, if ever written, will not present reality as it happened. For example, Obie would be portrayed as a savior, etc.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 15:59 | 4994712 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

But but but.........with all those stock buybacks, the rise in EPS is just as phony as any of the gubmint numbers.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:01 | 4994720 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

Please stop using facts and logic. You are confusing the customers. 

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:03 | 4994721 Bubenthauser
Bubenthauser's picture

Blah blah blah... HOWEVER, blah blah blah.

 

Jeez, if you're gonna sell us narratives, at least write properly.

Oh yea, HOWEVER.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:03 | 4994727 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I thought the main reason the market doesn't go down is because it would be no fun to be long equities on margin if it did.  Where's the profit in being long a declining market?  Seems pretty obvious, really.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:03 | 4994728 toddf
toddf's picture

Observeration:  Today we had 40% of the trade volume of the DOW occur in the last minute, which is very typical.  How can there be that much volume, but no significant move in either direction?  

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:05 | 4994736 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

You see, the marketss are very complicated... /sarc

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:20 | 4995103 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

The Fed was sucking up the offer like a Hoover Deluxe. Welcome to the Grand Illusion.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:39 | 4996190 IllusionOfChoice
IllusionOfChoice's picture

So, in the second great crash, when the Fed buys everything, that will mean the banks own everything, and it's really neo-feudal game on. Bullish farmland and .308s.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:09 | 4994755 starman
starman's picture

And 1reason that it will...junk bonds.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:24 | 4994827 Thomas Aquinas
Thomas Aquinas's picture

For some writers, I think there is an inverse correlation between the despair of the situation which they know through common-sense and the false optimism and sophistry they employ in commentary.

Good sense could never possibly entertain that in the present parlous economic situation, that there could be a protracted bull market.

Such analysis is not based on objectivity but on blind hope.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:33 | 4994867 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Sounds like I wasn't the only one to skip straight to the comments. Yawn.

Just breakdown for fucks sake. Even S&P to 1900 would be fun in this bizarro force FED market.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:36 | 4994882 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

The market may not crash, and it might go to the moon, but the real economy will.

Around my neck of the woods, I see stores closing. Not just the local K-mart, which was a dead horse long ago, but mom and pop stores, eateries, computer places, hardware stores, flower shops, sandwich places, lawyer's offices, and auto shops.

When GDP pring is negative for the second quarter in a row, it will technically be a recession. Not that the market will care.

You won't be able to buy anything even if you have the money. That's how it was in the Soviet block in the 80's. People had government money, but there was nothing to buy. The real action was behind the scenes in bartering, out of the watchful eye of the authorities.

It will be the same in the USSA soon.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:42 | 4994909 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"1) No Recession In Sight."

 

There was no recession in sight in October 2007.  It was confined to sub prime.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:48 | 4994942 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"2) The Fed Is Still Your Friend"

 

If you are a 1%er.  The insiders sell to bag holders at the top.  The FED does not care what happens to the 99%.  At the bottom, the FED will be there for the insiders, just as they were at the top.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:53 | 4994962 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"3) Sentiment Still Skittish"

 

According to who?  VIX was just at rock bottom.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:55 | 4994970 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Paul LaMonica, whom wrote a piece for CNN Money - figures - another MSM con-artist.

 

Listen up Paul. 

 

Tell that hag yellen to shut down POMO and shut down REPOs and see how long your bull(shit) stays up.

 

Then ask that hag yellen to dispose of that $5T balance sheet (was $600B in 2009) and see how long your bull(shit) market stays up.

 

In conclusion, go fuck your analysis and go fuck yourself too Paul LaMonica.

 

 

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 16:58 | 4994995 moneybots
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"5) Corrections Have Happened In The Bull Market"

 

Over due for a real bear market.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:05 | 4995026 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"4) Market Isn't Cheap But Isn't Overvalued Either"

 

What is the market's value when the ongoing financial fraud is taken into account?

Enron was a 60 dollar stock until the financial fraud was accounted for.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:11 | 4995061 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

6. Get your head out of your ass, this "thing" does not meet the definition of a Market by any measure.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 17:14 | 4995076 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"What if I told you this is only the beginning of a great run for stocks which may last another dozen years?"

 

What if those peaks in 2000 and 2007 are a double left shoulder high and the head is being formed to a massive head and shoulder top?

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 19:24 | 4995630 sof_hannibal
sof_hannibal's picture

listen this market is too big to crash

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 04:33 | 4997039 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

The top 1% commanding 90% of the wealth do not care whether the equity market goes climbing or crash. They are trading with stop losses to skim what remains of the leveraged lemmings and the yield chasers.

Not time for them to be investing until the whole landscape is clear to pick up bargains.

Money is in bonds, commodities, currencires where they will have ample time to exit from governments before the markets are told.

They are still in the game of equity because the institutional funds (mutual, pensions, etc) are still juicy. The risk-on or risk-off sentiments of these group are the prompts for them to place the levels of their stop-losses.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 04:33 | 4997040 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

The top 1% commanding 90% of the wealth do not care whether the equity market goes climbing or crash. They are trading with stop losses to skim what remains of the leveraged lemmings and the yield chasers.

Not time for them to be investing until the whole landscape is clear to pick up bargains.

Money is in bonds, commodities, currencires where they will have ample time to exit from governments before the markets are told.

They are still in the game of equity because the institutional funds (mutual, pensions, etc) are still juicy. The risk-on or risk-off sentiments of these group are the prompts for them to place the levels of their stop-losses.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 04:46 | 4997050 damicol
damicol's picture

I have never read such such fucking bollocks in my fucking life before.

What the fuck are you on.

Whether or not such fucking retaded morons as the fucking ben wanker can see one only afte  he is forcibly fed the data for several years after the event, ..." derrr  oh  it was a recession then"... to see it, even my fucking cat knew in January that the US was in recession.

 

 Mypoic wamker. Get a fucking real job

 

 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 08:25 | 4997341 esum
esum's picture

think for a moment if the market lost 50% of its value, the dolla is no longer the petro printing press marvel...and boomers get a sorry letter instead of the monthly "retirement" check...

i think ISIS / VLAD THE IMPALER would look like boy scouts by comparison ...... and that is what the fed/feds  F E A R.... 

gubmint parasites know that john q public knows who they are and where they live....and oh by the way when the order to shoot ussa cits is issued and ignored....there aint no place to hide.... 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 08:33 | 4997354 esum
esum's picture

what are the p/e multiples / market indexes when deflated to say .... 1970 dollas..... apparently a dolla is $0.02 in 1913 dollas.....

the tbtf banks are nothing but intermediary pimps helping the fed avert financial armageddon.... and being well overpaid for it ...

why not just cut out the middle man and let janet buy bio and other sectors of her choice... think of the huge savings in unearned bonuses... and the suicide prevention for banksters.... 

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