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Japanese Exports Tumble For 2nd Month In A Row, Worst Since Abenomics Began

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Japanese exports have disappointed expectations for 6 of the last 7 months. June saw exports drop 2.0% (versus an expectation of a rise of 1.0%). This is the first consecutive month drop in exports since Dec 2012 (before Abenomics was unleashed). Despite eysterday's incessant bullshit from various BoJ member about the economy being on track for receovery etc. the adjusted trade balane has now been in deficit for 39 months in a row with June's unadjusted trade-deficit dramatically worse than expected at JPY822billion. For a sense of how much this disaster means to markets that have become so numbed thanks to central bank intervention, USDJPY fell 2 pips on the news... it's not the economy, stupid; it's the BoJ.

 

 

We leave it to none other than Goldman (who some may remember had banked on a J-Curve arriving in the middle of last year just as the textbooks said it would) to explain just how bad today's data really is...

Trade balance to remain in the red, sluggish export volume becoming an increasingly serious issue: We expect the trade balance to remain in the red in the long term. We see a gradual improvement over time in line with recovery in the US economy and elsewhere, but with the boost to export volumes from yen depreciation weakening and structural changes evident in imports, including higher electrical machinery imports, we believe the pace of that improvement will be far more modest than in past periods of yen weakness. There were some commentators who viewed that export volume was weak in January-March as manufacturers allocated the portion of products scheduled for exports for domestic use in response to the pre-tax-hike rush demand, and therefore expected a rebound from April. However, such view was apparently misleading.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 07/23/2014 - 20:45 | 4995965 suteibu
suteibu's picture

It seemed kind of obvious that Abenomics was voodoo economics from the start.  The Japanese elite are not stupid so it makes one wonder what the real objective is.  This is not Keynesianism gone wild, it is something much more dangerous.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:53 | 4996251 max2205
max2205's picture

Spy 2020 turbo thursday!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 00:39 | 4996779 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

With Abenomics it's Sayonara for my yen for Japanese stock market. It's too radioactive! for me (it's all been Fukushima'd)

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 23:47 | 4996652 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

What's the real objective of any govt? stay in power.

...and possibly hand out favors to friends, in that order.

Promise whatever voodoo miracle that will get you elected, then once elected, who cares?

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 20:51 | 4995995 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

Abe should fake the numbers - end game is the same but he might get more time - fck it!

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 20:54 | 4996009 fxrxexexdxoxmx
fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

When do Central Banks not create more fiat? Only when they die and get reorganized into another cartel then they start all over again. They know nothing else.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 20:59 | 4996030 remain calm
remain calm's picture

10 yr JGB 0.54. Please move along everything is well.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:09 | 4996069 Remington IV
Remington IV's picture

Obama could learn a few lessons from these sneaky fuckers

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:15 | 4996080 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

NATURALLY, this number regarding exports from Japan has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with the various bans on imported products by the 'importing nations' around the greater East-Asia co-prosperity sphere; because of the increased radiation levels from same. It ALSO has nothing to do with the fact that the entire globe is suffering from a downturn in economic ability to spend ever-shrinking numbers called 'discretionary income'.

The chart is WAY TOO SHORT in the overall timeline to be of any use. Someone's 'dotted red-arrowed line' with a coincident date in mind is actually one of the highest forms of propaganda used (regarding the usage of charts and graphs).

I am trying to reconcile Prime Minister Abe's actions RE: the downfall of the Japanese economy, and have yet to see that his actions are but a minor part in the overall demise. It looks like adding a kilogram to the overall decagram weight in the downturn might not be all that it's cracked up to be. If people around the world can not or will not buy their products, what does the fact that he is a Keynsian bankster have to do with it? (Perhaps, everything)

If he REALLY wants to help the Japanese economy, he'll fly over some diseased and criminal Guatemalans who are being 'relocated' to the CONUS, and put them on the Japanese 'welfare' system; and then order that more Yen be printed to spend into the 'welfare state'. WATCH. The NIKKEI would SKYROCKET!

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:52 | 4996250 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

FIRE UP THE NUKERS NOW!

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 21:54 | 4996254 ekm1
ekm1's picture

The whole point of abenomics is to import as much energy as possible by paying in yen, not with exports.

This will lead to high inflation, but they don't care since retirees will die faster now due to lower purchasing power of savings.

 

Abenomics is a full success.

Wed, 07/23/2014 - 23:32 | 4996607 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

They really need to start blowing off tops of all the hills they have in the country side move the businesses out there and start over. Leave Tokyo to Mitsubishi and Toyota. The radiation's still coming. Single story homes, easy to heat and cool, back yard for the family. Oh, and Abe just doesn't have the balls to tackle the big problems, and doesn't want to.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 01:53 | 4996874 LostandFound
LostandFound's picture

We are going to hear some real horror stories coming out of Japan in the next 24 months!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 07:32 | 4997204 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency. This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its GDP and is the highest in the industrialized world.

 The moment the Japaneses stock market fails to rise enough to offset inflation this will turn into a tsunami of  money fleeing Japan and constitute the end of the line for those left holding both JGBs and the yen. This has been a long time coming and I contend the cross-border flow of money leaving Japan is why some stock markets have remained so resilient . When Japan crumbles it will be felt across the world. More on this subject in the article below.

 http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/05/japan-sliding-towards-abyss.html

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 07:49 | 4997257 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Do they not count the exporting of Cesium 137?

 

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