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The IMF's Comedy Of Quarterly Errors Reveals The Biggest Hockeystick You Have Ever Seen
Readers are familiar with our quarterly summary of the IMF's laughable forecasts, which we compile after every quarterly release of the fund's World Economic Outlook. Moments ago, the IMF released its latest update for world growth and trade for 2014 and 2015. Since we have said it all already, we will cut straight to the charts.
Below we show the progression of the IMF's quarterly forecasts starting in 2012 and continuing through today. What originally was supposed to be 4.1% GDP growth forecast as recently as January 2013 has, a year and ha half later, been slashed to 3.4%, down from 3.6% in April. As for the increase in 2015 growth forecast from 3.9% to 4.0%, just humor us and laugh.
Things were not quite as dire in Europe where the 2014 GDP forecast was cut by just one tenth, from 1.2% to 1.1%. It will be cut more before the year is over as the reality of Europe's deflation-driven triple dip recession unveils itself.
When it comes to China, there is absolutely nothing to say here. Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth.
But the piece de resistance is the following chart of the US 2014 GDP forecast, which was just crushed by 1.1% from 2.8% to 1.7%, an estimate which recently was 3.0%. But where it gets outright surreal is in the biggest hockey stick we have ever seen, because while the IMF admits 2014 will be the weakest year for US growth since Lehman (due to a snow storm no less), it expects GDP to soar from 1.7% to 3.0%, the same forecast it had a quarter ago.
And so... presenting the biggest stick you have ever seen!
Finally, and no humor here at all, where things get serious is that quietly the IMF once again cut its forecast for the all important global trade, this time from 4.3% to 4.0%. This is really all that matters because after the epic slashing to 2013 world trade growth, 2014 it is now 27% below where it was supposed to be as forecast in January 2013.

Why is trade all that matters? Because while the Fed can monetize everything that isn't (and is) nailed down, and can inject an infinite tsunami of liquidity in its failed crusade to grow the economy, it can't print trade. And without trade the globalized world crumples up into a monster that not even its Keynesian mother can love.
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Even Patrick Roy never had a stick that big.
Hey, it could happen...
...as soon as war is considered growth.
Damn...now we know where AlGore gots his ideas...
That's not a hockey stick,...
It's a golf club.
Maybe it will be 11th time's the charm.
Billy Smith could show you a hockey stick. He never had to worry about a screen.
pods
ha,ha, you got that right.
How many ankles, shins did Billy Smith bruise in his career? I would venture to say the figure more than his games played.
Yes he did, Roy's hockey stick is a goalie stick and is wider at the bottom and wider one third higher up the shaft and the angle is less (the angle that predicts higher response) is a flatter lie than that of the defenseman and forward's sticks.
Patrick, the last goalie to lead a Canadian team to the Stanley Cup (1993, Montreal Canadiens((Roy carried the Canadien team on his back in Stanley Cup victories in 1986 and 1993)) and is now a vociferous, successful coach of the Colarado Avalanche.
Montreal management disgraced him by trading him to the Colorado Avalanche in the late 90's when he pulled himself from a game when Montreal was losing 8-0.
Colorado is reaping the dividends.
Off Topic: Talking hockey, when I grew up Bobby Baun, a gnarly blue liner playing for Toronto Maple Leafs in the late 50's (before I was born-62) till 1974 or so. Bobby was the master of the hip check-opponents where thrown ass over teakettle-it was fun to watch as a little kid.
Saw him a few times when my Dad took me to the Maple Leaf Garden games and saw him on televsion every Saturday night from 1965.
Bobby Baun was a tough son of a bitch. He broke his leg in the third period of the seventh game of the Stanley Cup in a scoreless 0-0 tie. The trainer told him to go to the training room then the hospital. Bobby told him to 'Fuck off".I believe it was against the Detroit Red Wings and,veventaully, he scored the winner , 1-0 in the second overime period on a broken leg.
Anyways, flying back steerage about three years ago from Vancouver to Toronto on the red eye, guess who is sitting beside me, Bobby Baun, my hero.
He had been up to the North West territories arctic char fishing with some a bunch Calgary oil executives (tar sands) who sponsored the event. The fishing trip lasted five days.
After a few beers and we started to chit chat Bobby told me that he made more in 5 days at the fishing camp that he ever made in his best year as a NHL defenseman.
A real gentleman.
What's this wa stuff, why don't they call him Roy?
You should see the size of the LaGarde's GDP Deflators. They are huge!
Chief IMF numerologist Lagarde ordered them 7 inches long.
Privilege to post pictures = revoked!
Thanks for playing, hedgeless!
Herd is upset at Hedge for posting pictures of fake cocks instead of real cocks.
So that's the magic 7
Thanks HH for getting me fired...
But then later revised to just a big orange clitoris.
Created by the NHL?
So fucking retarded.
The only thing I see "growing" is the Debt, the Lies and the Nose.
The hockey stick in the article is a lefty. Coincidence, I think not.
"Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth."
Just talking shit about the new competitor that's about to put them out of business. Nothing to see here.
Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. But thats not saying yo still can't sell stocks and bonds based on delusion.
Kickin the can, baby!
" Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. "
Possible, but, at least for the time being, reality doesn't leave much room for any optimism.
How in the hell do we get such stupid fucking people in these institutions? Don't bother answering, it's simply a rhetorical question in this overly corrupt crony capitalist politically correct affirmative action system.
Criminals, ideologues, and racists hire almost exclusively out of their own.
Confirmation bias has informed them that they are the only people morally and intellectually fit to manage other people.
Is there another type of capitalism besides "corrupt, crony, capitalism"?
Who needs growth when wealth is measured by the ability to increase the debt load?
It's like worrying about the velocity of money when you got an near infinite amount of it.
FEED ME MOAR BULLSHIT!!!! I WANT MOAR BULLSHIT!!!! I AM A BELIEVER!!!!
What time is the next bankster jumping?
Who knows...
Could be a jumper...
A DIY accident...
Roadcrossing accident...
A love killing spree...
A lactose intolerant milk overdose...
....
They're creative, so act surprized
Monkey see? Monkey do!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts
" FEED ME MOAR BULLSHIT!!!! I WANT MOAR BULLSHIT!!!! I AM A BELIEVER!!!! "
Well, when you tell the truth about the economy, particularly the US economy, you get fired or fined ......
or you have a car accident.
So, no need to worry, you won't be starved of bullshit.
Why the fuck would anyone trade any goods for a fucking dollar that is printed out of thin air?
Because the only alternative is to trade if for another fucking currency printed out of thin air. It's tough to transmit gold across the internet.
During the 18 hundreds, plantations gave tokens to their slaves as currency.
Those tokens where worthless outside the plantation but the slaves could buy food and other stuff with it.
It was actually a pretty smart system as people work harder for rewards.
So, a dollar is nothing more than a token and for now, the plantation still covers most of the world.
Not to mention the good ole 'company store' that miners got to shop at.
I was at an old gold mine in Northern Ontario this summer. It was mined in 1932-37 by the Kenty brothers, called the Kenty mine.Two shafts, 800 metres apart where they mined to the 200 foot level and the 425 foot level. The place was in the middle of nowhere. It would be a day of driving to the closest small town.
There was various buildings and there were spray painted by the Kenty brothers to describe their purpose: one was Company Store, one was Saloon, one was Apothecary, one was Brothel, one was Office, one was nursing station.
Anyways, apparently the operation went broke in the winter of 1938. What made more money for the operators, the stores or the mine?
Astute analysis.
Sherwood made the best sticks. Koho was ok, but weak in the heel.
The banana curve was invented on a Sherwood...
The 'banana curve' was discovered by Bobby Hull of the Chicago Blackwacks in 1961 or 1962.
Bobby Hull, with the aid if the 'banana curve", discovered, invented the slap shot around the same time.
1 month before a company goes bust, mostly they use the same kind of hope and math to keep going for another month....
And most funny...
Just before companies go bust... They order everything they can from their suppliers and lose it 1 day before they file for bankrupcy... Weird....
Its called 'busting out the joint'.
Does it say BTFD! on that Hockey Stick!! Haha
Insane
Mathematical
Finance
You know, this is all code, warning us about the up-coming glacial period. We have to shift our game; the symbolism of the hockey stick should be quite clear!
"Everybody funny, now you funny too" George Thorogood<sp?>
When your magical models say one thing and reality says another you should always ignore reality, because after all that's the Keynesian way.
Theory: Central banks are assuming the average global citizen/consumer/investor is as aloof as they were before the internet. Wrongo butthole. Now everybody knows everything. Their shit doesn't work when you can see it coming.
And yet, IMF arrogance and corruption grows as predicted.