The IMF's Comedy Of Quarterly Errors Reveals The Biggest Hockeystick You Have Ever Seen

Tyler Durden's picture

Readers are familiar with our quarterly summary of the IMF's laughable forecasts, which we compile after every quarterly release of the fund's World Economic Outlook. Moments ago, the IMF released its latest update for world growth and trade for 2014 and 2015. Since we have said it all already, we will cut straight to the charts.

Below we show the progression of the IMF's quarterly forecasts starting in 2012 and continuing through today. What originally was supposed to be 4.1% GDP growth forecast as recently as January 2013 has, a year and ha half later, been slashed to 3.4%, down from 3.6% in April. As for the increase in 2015 growth forecast from 3.9% to 4.0%, just humor us and laugh.


Things were not quite as dire in Europe where the 2014 GDP forecast was cut by just one tenth, from 1.2% to 1.1%. It will be cut more before the year is over as the reality of Europe's deflation-driven triple dip recession unveils itself.


When it comes to China, there is absolutely nothing to say here. Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth.


But the piece de resistance is the following chart of the US 2014 GDP forecast, which was just crushed by 1.1% from 2.8% to 1.7%, an estimate which recently was 3.0%. But where it gets outright surreal is in the biggest hockey stick we have ever seen, because while the IMF admits 2014 will be the weakest year for US growth since Lehman (due to a snow storm no less), it expects GDP to soar  from 1.7% to 3.0%, the same forecast it had a quarter ago.

And so... presenting the biggest stick you have ever seen!


Finally, and no humor here at all, where things get serious is that quietly the IMF once again cut its forecast for the all important global trade, this time from 4.3% to 4.0%. This is really all that matters because after the epic slashing to 2013 world trade growth, 2014 it is now 27% below where it was supposed to be as forecast in January 2013.

Why is trade all that matters? Because while the Fed can monetize everything that isn't (and is) nailed down, and can inject an infinite tsunami of liquidity in its failed crusade to grow the economy, it can't print trade. And without trade the globalized world crumples up into a monster that not even its Keynesian mother can love.

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digitlman's picture

Even Patrick Roy never had a stick that big.

NotApplicable's picture

Hey, it could happen... soon as war is considered growth.

SumTing Wong's picture we know where AlGore gots his ideas...

Pool Shark's picture



That's not a hockey stick,...

It's a golf club.

TheRedScourge's picture

Maybe it will be 11th time's the charm.

pods's picture

Billy Smith could show you a hockey stick.  He never had to worry about a screen.


oudinot's picture

ha,ha, you got that right.

How many ankles, shins did Billy Smith bruise in his career? I would venture to say the figure more than his games played.

oudinot's picture

Yes he did, Roy's hockey stick is a goalie stick and is wider at the bottom and wider one third higher up the shaft and the angle is less (the angle that predicts higher response) is a flatter lie than that of the defenseman and forward's sticks.

Patrick, the last goalie to lead a Canadian team to the Stanley Cup (1993, Montreal Canadiens((Roy carried the Canadien team on his back in Stanley Cup victories in 1986 and 1993)) and  is now  a vociferous, successful coach of the Colarado Avalanche. 

Montreal management disgraced him by trading him to the Colorado Avalanche in the late 90's when he pulled himself from a game when Montreal was losing 8-0.

Colorado is reaping the dividends.


oudinot's picture

Off Topic:  Talking hockey, when I grew up Bobby Baun, a gnarly blue liner playing for Toronto Maple Leafs in the late 50's (before I was born-62) till 1974 or so.  Bobby  was the master of the hip check-opponents where thrown ass over teakettle-it was fun to watch as a little kid.

Saw him a few times when my Dad took me to the Maple Leaf Garden  games and saw him on televsion every Saturday night from 1965.

Bobby Baun was a tough son of a bitch.  He broke his leg in the third period of the seventh game of the Stanley Cup in a scoreless 0-0 tie.  The trainer told him to go to the training room then the hospital.  Bobby told him to 'Fuck off".I believe it was against the Detroit Red Wings and,veventaully,  he scored the winner , 1-0 in the second overime period on a broken leg.

Anyways, flying back steerage about three years ago from Vancouver to Toronto on the red eye, guess who is sitting beside me, Bobby Baun, my hero.

He had been up to the North West territories arctic char fishing with some a bunch Calgary oil executives (tar sands)  who sponsored the event.  The fishing trip lasted five days.

After a few beers and we started to chit chat  Bobby told me that he made more in 5 days at the fishing camp that he ever made in his best  year as a NHL defenseman.

A real gentleman.


TheReplacement's picture

What's this wa stuff, why don't they call him Roy?

hedgeless_horseman's picture



But where it gets outright surreal is in the biggest hockey stick we
have ever seen, because while the IMF admits 2014 will be the weakest
year for US growth since Lehman (due to a snow storm no less), it
expects GDP to soar  from 1.7% to 3.0%, the same forecast it had a
quarter ago.

You should see the size of the LaGarde's GDP Deflators.  They are huge!

Emergency Ward's picture

Chief IMF numerologist Lagarde ordered them 7 inches long.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Privilege to post pictures = revoked!

Thanks for playing, hedgeless!

Ben Ghazi's picture

Herd is upset at Hedge for posting pictures of fake cocks instead of real cocks.

Pool Shark's picture



Thanks HH for getting me fired...



flyingcaveman's picture

But then later revised to just a big orange clitoris.

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Created by the NHL?

FuzzyDunlop21's picture

So fucking retarded. 

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The only thing I see "growing" is the Debt, the Lies and the Nose.

insanelysane's picture

The hockey stick in the article is a lefty.  Coincidence, I think not.

tmosley's picture

"Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth."

Just talking shit about the new competitor that's about to put them out of business.  Nothing to see here.

Oldwood's picture

Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. But thats not saying yo still can't sell stocks and bonds based on delusion.

Kickin the can, baby!

daemon's picture

" Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. "

Possible, but, at least for the time being, reality doesn't leave much room for any optimism.

Dr. Engali's picture

How in the hell do we get such stupid fucking people in these institutions? Don't bother answering, it's simply a rhetorical question in this overly corrupt crony capitalist politically correct affirmative action system. 

ThroxxOfVron's picture

Criminals, ideologues, and racists hire almost exclusively out of their own.  

Confirmation bias has informed them that they are the only people morally and intellectually fit to manage other people.

withglee's picture

Is there another type of capitalism besides "corrupt, crony, capitalism"?

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Who needs growth when wealth is measured by the ability to increase the debt load?

It's like worrying about the velocity of money when you got an near infinite amount of it.

orangegeek's picture



What time is the next bankster jumping?

Sudden Debt's picture

Who knows...
Could be a jumper...
A DIY accident...
Roadcrossing accident...
A love killing spree...
A lactose intolerant milk overdose...

They're creative, so act surprized

daemon's picture


Well, when you tell the truth about the economy, particularly the US economy, you get fired or fined ......

or you have a car accident.

So, no need to worry, you won't be starved of bullshit.


BandGap's picture

Why the fuck would anyone trade any goods for a fucking dollar that is printed out of thin air?

NOTaREALmerican's picture

Because the only alternative is to trade if for another fucking currency printed out of thin air.   It's tough to transmit gold across the internet.  

Sudden Debt's picture

During the 18 hundreds, plantations gave tokens to their slaves as currency.
Those tokens where worthless outside the plantation but the slaves could buy food and other stuff with it.
It was actually a pretty smart system as people work harder for rewards.
So, a dollar is nothing more than a token and for now, the plantation still covers most of the world.

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Not to mention the good ole 'company store' that miners got to shop at.

oudinot's picture

I was at an old gold mine in Northern Ontario this summer.  It was mined in 1932-37 by the Kenty brothers, called the Kenty mine.Two shafts, 800 metres apart where they mined to the 200 foot level and the 425 foot level.  The place was in the middle of nowhere.  It would be a day of driving to the closest small town.

There was various buildings and there were spray painted by the Kenty brothers to describe their purpose:  one was Company  Store, one was Saloon, one was Apothecary, one was Brothel, one was Office, one was nursing station.

Anyways, apparently the operation went broke in the winter  of 1938.  What made more money  for the operators, the stores or the mine?

Stoploss's picture

Sherwood made the best sticks.  Koho was ok, but weak in the heel.

The banana curve was invented on a Sherwood...

oudinot's picture

The 'banana curve' was discovered by Bobby Hull of the Chicago Blackwacks in 1961 or 1962. 

Bobby Hull, with the aid if the 'banana curve", discovered, invented the slap shot around the same time.

Sudden Debt's picture

1 month before a company goes bust, mostly they use the same kind of hope and math to keep going for another month....
And most funny...
Just before companies go bust... They order everything they can from their suppliers and lose it 1 day before they file for bankrupcy... Weird....

Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its called 'busting out the joint'.

RiskyBidness's picture

Does it say BTFD! on that Hockey Stick!!  Haha

Glass Seagull's picture







Seer's picture

You know, this is all code, warning us about the up-coming glacial period.  We have to shift our game; the symbolism of the hockey stick should be quite clear!


"Everybody funny, now you funny too" George Thorogood<sp?>

KnuckleDragger-X's picture

When your magical models say one thing and reality says another you should always ignore reality, because after all that's the Keynesian way.

S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

Theory: Central banks are assuming the average global citizen/consumer/investor is as aloof as they were before the internet. Wrongo butthole. Now everybody knows everything. Their shit doesn't work when you can see it coming.

honestann's picture

And yet, IMF arrogance and corruption grows as predicted.