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The IMF's Comedy Of Quarterly Errors Reveals The Biggest Hockeystick You Have Ever Seen

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Readers are familiar with our quarterly summary of the IMF's laughable forecasts, which we compile after every quarterly release of the fund's World Economic Outlook. Moments ago, the IMF released its latest update for world growth and trade for 2014 and 2015. Since we have said it all already, we will cut straight to the charts.

Below we show the progression of the IMF's quarterly forecasts starting in 2012 and continuing through today. What originally was supposed to be 4.1% GDP growth forecast as recently as January 2013 has, a year and ha half later, been slashed to 3.4%, down from 3.6% in April. As for the increase in 2015 growth forecast from 3.9% to 4.0%, just humor us and laugh.

 

Things were not quite as dire in Europe where the 2014 GDP forecast was cut by just one tenth, from 1.2% to 1.1%. It will be cut more before the year is over as the reality of Europe's deflation-driven triple dip recession unveils itself.

 

When it comes to China, there is absolutely nothing to say here. Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth.

 

But the piece de resistance is the following chart of the US 2014 GDP forecast, which was just crushed by 1.1% from 2.8% to 1.7%, an estimate which recently was 3.0%. But where it gets outright surreal is in the biggest hockey stick we have ever seen, because while the IMF admits 2014 will be the weakest year for US growth since Lehman (due to a snow storm no less), it expects GDP to soar  from 1.7% to 3.0%, the same forecast it had a quarter ago.

And so... presenting the biggest stick you have ever seen!

 

Finally, and no humor here at all, where things get serious is that quietly the IMF once again cut its forecast for the all important global trade, this time from 4.3% to 4.0%. This is really all that matters because after the epic slashing to 2013 world trade growth, 2014 it is now 27% below where it was supposed to be as forecast in January 2013.

Why is trade all that matters? Because while the Fed can monetize everything that isn't (and is) nailed down, and can inject an infinite tsunami of liquidity in its failed crusade to grow the economy, it can't print trade. And without trade the globalized world crumples up into a monster that not even its Keynesian mother can love.

 

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Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:46 | 4998561 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Even Patrick Roy never had a stick that big.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:51 | 4998596 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Hey, it could happen...

...as soon as war is considered growth.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:49 | 4998923 SumTing Wong
SumTing Wong's picture

Damn...now we know where AlGore gots his ideas...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:49 | 4999286 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

That's not a hockey stick,...

It's a golf club.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:15 | 4999424 TheRedScourge
TheRedScourge's picture

Maybe it will be 11th time's the charm.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:00 | 4998663 pods
pods's picture

Billy Smith could show you a hockey stick.  He never had to worry about a screen.

pods

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:00 | 4999746 oudinot
oudinot's picture

ha,ha, you got that right.

How many ankles, shins did Billy Smith bruise in his career? I would venture to say the figure more than his games played.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:04 | 4999711 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Yes he did, Roy's hockey stick is a goalie stick and is wider at the bottom and wider one third higher up the shaft and the angle is less (the angle that predicts higher response) is a flatter lie than that of the defenseman and forward's sticks.

Patrick, the last goalie to lead a Canadian team to the Stanley Cup (1993, Montreal Canadiens((Roy carried the Canadien team on his back in Stanley Cup victories in 1986 and 1993)) and  is now  a vociferous, successful coach of the Colarado Avalanche. 

Montreal management disgraced him by trading him to the Colorado Avalanche in the late 90's when he pulled himself from a game when Montreal was losing 8-0.

Colorado is reaping the dividends.

 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:58 | 5000067 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Off Topic:  Talking hockey, when I grew up Bobby Baun, a gnarly blue liner playing for Toronto Maple Leafs in the late 50's (before I was born-62) till 1974 or so.  Bobby  was the master of the hip check-opponents where thrown ass over teakettle-it was fun to watch as a little kid.

Saw him a few times when my Dad took me to the Maple Leaf Garden  games and saw him on televsion every Saturday night from 1965.

Bobby Baun was a tough son of a bitch.  He broke his leg in the third period of the seventh game of the Stanley Cup in a scoreless 0-0 tie.  The trainer told him to go to the training room then the hospital.  Bobby told him to 'Fuck off".I believe it was against the Detroit Red Wings and,veventaully,  he scored the winner , 1-0 in the second overime period on a broken leg.

Anyways, flying back steerage about three years ago from Vancouver to Toronto on the red eye, guess who is sitting beside me, Bobby Baun, my hero.

He had been up to the North West territories arctic char fishing with some a bunch Calgary oil executives (tar sands)  who sponsored the event.  The fishing trip lasted five days.

After a few beers and we started to chit chat  Bobby told me that he made more in 5 days at the fishing camp that he ever made in his best  year as a NHL defenseman.

A real gentleman.

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 11:23 | 5007100 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

What's this wa stuff, why don't they call him Roy?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:01 | 4998567 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

But where it gets outright surreal is in the biggest hockey stick we
have ever seen, because while the IMF admits 2014 will be the weakest
year for US growth since Lehman (due to a snow storm no less), it
expects GDP to soar  from 1.7% to 3.0%, the same forecast it had a
quarter ago.

You should see the size of the LaGarde's GDP Deflators.  They are huge!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:08 | 4998717 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

Chief IMF numerologist Lagarde ordered them 7 inches long.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:53 | 4999311 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Privilege to post pictures = revoked!

Thanks for playing, hedgeless!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 16:49 | 5000367 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

Herd is upset at Hedge for posting pictures of fake cocks instead of real cocks.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:11 | 4998728 nightshiftsucks
nightshiftsucks's picture

So that's the magic 7

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:51 | 4999294 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Thanks HH for getting me fired...

 

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 02:17 | 5006558 flyingcaveman
flyingcaveman's picture

But then later revised to just a big orange clitoris.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:47 | 4998568 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Created by the NHL?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:47 | 4998577 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

So fucking retarded. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:49 | 4998583 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The only thing I see "growing" is the Debt, the Lies and the Nose.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:50 | 4998589 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The hockey stick in the article is a lefty.  Coincidence, I think not.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:50 | 4998591 tmosley
tmosley's picture

"Not even the IMF any longer believes that China will be a source of future global growth."

Just talking shit about the new competitor that's about to put them out of business.  Nothing to see here.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:51 | 4998595 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. But thats not saying yo still can't sell stocks and bonds based on delusion.

Kickin the can, baby!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:09 | 4998721 daemon
daemon's picture

" Optimism not based upon any reality is a delusion. "

Possible, but, at least for the time being, reality doesn't leave much room for any optimism.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:52 | 4998597 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How in the hell do we get such stupid fucking people in these institutions? Don't bother answering, it's simply a rhetorical question in this overly corrupt crony capitalist politically correct affirmative action system. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:15 | 4998742 ThroxxOfVron
ThroxxOfVron's picture

Criminals, ideologues, and racists hire almost exclusively out of their own.  

Confirmation bias has informed them that they are the only people morally and intellectually fit to manage other people.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:41 | 4999600 withglee
withglee's picture

Is there another type of capitalism besides "corrupt, crony, capitalism"?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:52 | 4998600 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Who needs growth when wealth is measured by the ability to increase the debt load?

It's like worrying about the velocity of money when you got an near infinite amount of it.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:52 | 4998611 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

FEED ME MOAR BULLSHIT!!!!   I WANT MOAR BULLSHIT!!!!  I AM A BELIEVER!!!!

 

What time is the next bankster jumping?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:59 | 4998651 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Who knows...
Could be a jumper...
A DIY accident...
Roadcrossing accident...
A love killing spree...
A lactose intolerant milk overdose...
....

They're creative, so act surprized

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:16 | 4998753 ThroxxOfVron
Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:17 | 4998763 daemon
daemon's picture

" FEED ME MOAR BULLSHIT!!!!   I WANT MOAR BULLSHIT!!!!  I AM A BELIEVER!!!! "

Well, when you tell the truth about the economy, particularly the US economy, you get fired or fined ......

or you have a car accident.

So, no need to worry, you won't be starved of bullshit.

 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:53 | 4998616 BandGap
BandGap's picture

Why the fuck would anyone trade any goods for a fucking dollar that is printed out of thin air?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:02 | 4998676 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Because the only alternative is to trade if for another fucking currency printed out of thin air.   It's tough to transmit gold across the internet.  

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:03 | 4998680 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

During the 18 hundreds, plantations gave tokens to their slaves as currency.
Those tokens where worthless outside the plantation but the slaves could buy food and other stuff with it.
It was actually a pretty smart system as people work harder for rewards.
So, a dollar is nothing more than a token and for now, the plantation still covers most of the world.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:55 | 4999324 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Not to mention the good ole 'company store' that miners got to shop at.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:13 | 4999830 oudinot
oudinot's picture

I was at an old gold mine in Northern Ontario this summer.  It was mined in 1932-37 by the Kenty brothers, called the Kenty mine.Two shafts, 800 metres apart where they mined to the 200 foot level and the 425 foot level.  The place was in the middle of nowhere.  It would be a day of driving to the closest small town.

There was various buildings and there were spray painted by the Kenty brothers to describe their purpose:  one was Company  Store, one was Saloon, one was Apothecary, one was Brothel, one was Office, one was nursing station.

Anyways, apparently the operation went broke in the winter  of 1938.  What made more money  for the operators, the stores or the mine?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:58 | 4999732 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Astute analysis.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:55 | 4998624 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Sherwood made the best sticks.  Koho was ok, but weak in the heel.

The banana curve was invented on a Sherwood...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:16 | 4999848 oudinot
oudinot's picture

The 'banana curve' was discovered by Bobby Hull of the Chicago Blackwacks in 1961 or 1962. 

Bobby Hull, with the aid if the 'banana curve", discovered, invented the slap shot around the same time.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:55 | 4998626 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

1 month before a company goes bust, mostly they use the same kind of hope and math to keep going for another month....
And most funny...
Just before companies go bust... They order everything they can from their suppliers and lose it 1 day before they file for bankrupcy... Weird....

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:56 | 4999326 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its called 'busting out the joint'.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:02 | 4998679 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

Does it say BTFD! on that Hockey Stick!!  Haha

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:03 | 4998685 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

 

 

Insane

Mathematical

Finance

 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:07 | 4998713 Seer
Seer's picture

You know, this is all code, warning us about the up-coming glacial period.  We have to shift our game; the symbolism of the hockey stick should be quite clear!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:50 | 4998935 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

"Everybody funny, now you funny too" George Thorogood<sp?>

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:02 | 4999018 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

When your magical models say one thing and reality says another you should always ignore reality, because after all that's the Keynesian way.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 15:07 | 4999805 S.M.T.U.Q.I.
S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

Theory: Central banks are assuming the average global citizen/consumer/investor is as aloof as they were before the internet. Wrongo butthole. Now everybody knows everything. Their shit doesn't work when you can see it coming.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 22:45 | 5001931 honestann
honestann's picture

And yet, IMF arrogance and corruption grows as predicted.

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