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New Home Sales Collapse 20% From May To Dec 2012 Levels; Biggest Miss In A Year

Tyler Durden's picture


New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May  (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for 'weather' is over and the market to surge: it somehow was magically revised lower by more than 10% to only 442K) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.

The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower as follows:

  • March: 410K to 408K
  • April: 425K to 408K
  • May: 504K to 442K

What is even more troubling in the "survey" vs "reality" world is this collapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists' expectations, below the lowest guess and a massive miss from almost highest estimate Joe Lavorgna's 510k.




Where the biggest revision was: sales in the West. One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?


And this is all going to be quite a shock for the homebuilders...


Finally, here is your long-term recovery:


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Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:07 | 4997760 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

sounds bullish, sell treasuries/buy stokks....

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997766 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It was the weather.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997798 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

What will the "subsidized foreign workers" do for worK? The horror! 


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997855 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Who will be the first to blame "the Jews"?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:29 | 4997939 power steering
power steering's picture

King Barry

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:35 | 4997963 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



People with 29.5 hr/wk jobs just usually rent.


They also usually just pay the fine rather than take Obamacare.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:38 | 4998009 power steering
power steering's picture

This is why we need to replenish the pool of new home buyers by bringing in all these people from Hondouras

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:41 | 4998030 AnnndItsGone
AnnndItsGone's picture

But... But... US is creating more Jobs which means a fucking flood of money to the economy isn`t? 

I don`t know anymore if i want to see the circus on fire with all this bullshit crap incongruente data that`s beeing showed or if i`m worried..

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:01 | 4998194 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Still a better deal to stay with Mom & Dad / Sis & Bro with all their eccentricities than to borrow from Wells,Citi,BofA,Chase or any of the cartel scumbags.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:58 | 4998991 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

TPTB have been trying to destroy the family unit for years.  How ironic that their greed and hubris is rebuilding familial ties for many.  I live with extended family and everyone working/coming together through these hard times has been great!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:22 | 5006343 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That would make a lot of sense if he did.  It would also put a lot of people in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with that man.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997862 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

As much as I love hysterical hand-waving headlines, a drop from 442K to 406K is about 8% by my calculator.  But since we're playing with numbers that all come straight out of the rubber room anyway, call it whatever you want.  20% is fine with me.  For that matter, so is 50%.  Or 80%.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:24 | 4997891 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Heh, yeah - prophalatic numbers for the numerically challenged.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:23 | 4997894 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

442 was revised from 500+

and, because it will never get old:


That 500 number messed up this pretty graph in May.  Now we're back to where it belongs.

In the abyss.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:36 | 4997985 power steering
power steering's picture

I am reminded of NASDAQ 1999-2000

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:31 | 4997948 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Here is how you get 20%:

  • In June algos react to a whopping 504K new home sales print, market soars
  • In July aglos react to a 20% lower 406K new home sales print, or rather, they do not react at all.
Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:55 | 4998069 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I know what you meant.

The fact that algos react only in an upward direction should tell you that these numbers aren't what's driving markets at all.  They're just the 'excuse du jour' for what's really driving things- the flood of central bank-supplied liquidity, worldwide, marching the markets inexorably higher.  It's the only game in town.

We can quibble over a few thousand units or a few percentage points, but the overall new home market is running at HALF of what it would be in "normal" times.  HALF.  And yet that's apparently NO PROBLEMO for the markets.  Record high after record high.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:03 | 4998220 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"the flood of central bank-supplied liquidity, worldwide, marching the markets inexorably higher.  It's the only game in town."

+10,000 !!!

Combine that with the proposals to limit redemptions on MM funds reported here yesterday.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:09 | 4999397 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

How will they ever pay for all those unfunded liabilities?  Tax.  Tax.  Tax.  Inflate.  Inflate.  Inflate. 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:25 | 5006350 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

So it's a wash eh?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:11 | 4997780 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

I hear there is an IPO coming for a unicorn ranch...300X oversubscribed!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:13 | 4997813 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I've been selling "unicorn farts in a bottle" and sales are booming!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:18 | 4998327 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The green ones ?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:42 | 4998533 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Mistified that some troll would junk such brilliance.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997810 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

And sell all your gold. Immediately. 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:27 | 5006355 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Not a problem.  I bought when it was hot over 1900 and sold at 1150 just like the guys at CNBC.  We are gonna be so rich you suckers.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:07 | 4997763 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997778 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997770 Cattender
Cattender's picture

it's a Recovery! Jeez am i tired of saying that.. shit.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997773 IANAE
IANAE's picture

anyone else see LOTS of homes for sale... 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:17 | 4997850 Dazman
Dazman's picture

Yes. In my recent hunt for an apartment I also drove around looking for homes here in Boca Raton, FL and quite a lot were up for sale.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:27 | 4997926 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I believe it's known as a "rush for the exits"

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997782 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The DOW was red - No kiddin'.  I seen it wit my own 2 eyez.  It was I tellz-ya.  I can't wait to tell my kids what I seen!!!  Whew.  I'm glad that's over.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997792 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Funny how this headline hasn't made it on the front page of Yahoo. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:49 | 4998099 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

an hour later, and Yahoo finance still screaming something about how great Facefuck and Suckerberg are... lol

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:02 | 4998198 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's funny how long that story has been up when they usually rotate through headline stories on a regular basis . It's almost as if they are trying to hide something.But surely the wouldn't do that.... would they?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:14 | 4997795 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

wow! the S&P actually went red for a few seconds on that number, I got a picture of it on my I gadget... now back to your regularly scheduled ramp fest to 2000 and beyond

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:11 | 4997796 pods
pods's picture

Can't wait for the FED to raise rates.  That should make things interesting!

Come on Mr. Yellen, I TRIPLE dog dare you.

(Schwartz created a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple dare and going straight for the throat.)


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:16 | 4997838 kowalli
kowalli's picture

no way Fed will raise rates...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:20 | 4997865 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Pods knows that. We are Japan. The ten year will hit 1% eventually and middle class people who once enjoyed a nice angus steak will be eating dog food out of a can.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:21 | 4997880 kowalli
kowalli's picture

U.S. will not be in 2 years, whats 10 years?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:27 | 4997923 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

You can only pay zero.....taxes already go to interest

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:58 | 4998182 tok1
tok1's picture

the commenrts about Japan and US being the same are wrong.

Japan stocks fell from 40K in 1990 to sub 20K (reaching as low as 7K) ie the Nikkei and still has not recovered (ie it dropped 70% and never got back to even 50%. its still only at 15300 ..where as US equities have broken back to new highes.

Also housing Japan property fells for over 20ys in a row between 2 to 5% every year for over 20ys (not one posative year) and prices are still down 50-70% from their peak, Japan population is shrinking by 250,000 a year for last 3ys and its expected to get worse (population  to go from 127mil  to best 100 mill and possible 80mm.. so in terms of demographics and asset prices theres no comparision, even if US stocks fall now the experiance is not the same.. 



Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:15 | 4998301 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You can not compare our stock market to Japan's as the U.S's stated policy is that the market is a policy tool. as far as demographics goes the U.S is a few years behind japan, but we have the same issue. The only thing that is slowing the process is the immigration policy. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:42 | 4998527 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Dr Engali... the immigration policy and the flood of unaccountable hot money from Chindia and South America bathing this housing market.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:17 | 4998316 pods
pods's picture

The US is caught in the same trap that Japan fell into is what Doc means.

How the US deals with it will be different (and bloodier).


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:28 | 4998811 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

No politician was ever selected by pointing out previous or ongoing examples of utter failure now going on nearly thirty years; no.. this time it's different, after all we are Americans..

.."eventually and middle class people who once enjoyed a nice angus steak will be eating dog food out of a can."..

-optimist.. they will be eating raw dog before the happy days returns.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997853 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Raise rates..... Lol. I wish to God they would.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:21 | 4997874 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, they will, Doc.  Every so many years they try to prove they are not in a liquidity trap and they raise rates.  Year later, everything goes in the shitter and they drop them again.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:26 | 4997911 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll be willing to bet a ham sandwich that the fed funds never goes above 1% again.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:31 | 4997953 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Done.  One ham sandwich bet.

If the Fed funds rate hits 1% or higher, you owe me a ham sandwich.

If it doesn't, I tell you it just hasn't happened YET and you just need to wait longer.


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:39 | 4998008 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Lol.... good one. I realize I said never, but we  are going to need a time frame here.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:49 | 4998087 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I just KNEW you were going to say that.  End of 2015 is too tight for my comfort (considering that they're not currently expected to begin until mid-year).  End of 2016, sure.  But that's one LONG damned bet.  I could be senile by then.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:18 | 4998328 pods
pods's picture

And a sandwich could cost a billion USD by then too.

Unless you get the Chinese Special Pimento Loaf.  And you do NOT want to go there.


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:29 | 4998413 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Anybody thinking this shitshow will still be going in 2016, is senile now.

One way or another, this is going to end very abruptly.The only managed decline

will be behind closed borders, with wartime rationing, just like it was in the UK from

1939 through to 1950.By the time they ended rationing there,nobody could

remember what life was like pre WWII.

Could be the template TPTB are going for, if we are not extinct first.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:40 | 4998507 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

I am in, if it comes with cheese.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:54 | 4998623 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Liquidity trap prevents increasing rates.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997801 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

To be fair, it has been too hot outside to buy houses.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:14 | 4997827 IANAE
IANAE's picture

but...but...but... the weather folks declared polar vortex for the summer...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:54 | 4998142 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

We set 120 year record lows this summer in the south...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997809 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

I own my house.....You tell me why?

I don't pay your taxes you take it from me.....That is what is wrong with this world....and then some


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:13 | 4997819 Hohum
Hohum's picture

Thanks for the news.  You'll have to excuse me; I have homebuilder stocks to buy.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:16 | 4997826 ekm1
ekm1's picture







USA, -4%






EU, -6%


CHINA, -8%


WORLD, -5%



Economy will rebound only and only when oil drops to $30-$50, which is inevitable

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:22 | 4997887 Hohum
Hohum's picture


Inevitable, yes.  And a plunge in oil production to accompany the plummeting price.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:24 | 4997901 ekm1
ekm1's picture


Price affects cost, not vice versa.


Lower price would mean that they will force lower costs downwards.

That's how it works.

Production never stops.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:30 | 4997937 Hohum
Hohum's picture


Perhaps you're right--as long as drillers want to lose more and more money.

About 1900 wells year over year ($10 billion) for about $700 million in revenue (if oil $100 per barrel).

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:34 | 4997972 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Drillers won't lose money at all.

Government will simply provide rebates and make them profitable instantly.


Production won't stop

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:29 | 4998412 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

This is a physics problem, not a money problem.  Physics trumps money.  We do not produce enough in the US to maintain our current lifestyle, much less the lifestyle from a decade ago.  "Rebates" means more deficit spending.  More deficit spending means devaluing the dollar more.  Eventually, that will kill the petro-dollar system and we won't be able to import as much (if any) oil. 


Learn what the fuck energy is.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:30 | 4997943 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Do you actually realize that you don't know what you're talking about, or is this just some kind of insanity?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:33 | 4997961 ekm1
ekm1's picture

All costs are labor costs.

A lot of other costs are taxes.


What is COST?


Costs are very, very very adjustable, particularly government taxes and rebates.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:33 | 4997971 Hohum
Hohum's picture


Well, if you're right (but you won't be), it will be very different from the plunge in production in 2009 after the price drop.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:37 | 4997999 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Production fell not because of price, but because of oil being dumped into the CONSUMPTION market from onshore and offshoer storage.


It was in storage as collateral for derivatives.


What matters is PROFIT.


Profit = Revenue - Cost

Costs are adjustable, particularly the government side of costs

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:43 | 4998048 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Some guys laid this out recently on the primary oil blog.

If you look at per capita oil consumption in Saudi Arabia, it is #1 at 0.1 barrels/day/person.  The US is 0.05.  China and India way behind and surging to catch up.

If you have little GDP, your consumption does not go to zero.  If you have lots of GDP your consumption goes way way way up.

Now, you can make a case for there being minimal necessary consumption of oil because it is, after all, the equivalent of food.  But if you raise GDP you WILL raise consumption (and pressure price up) and if you smash GDP you WILL lower consumption (and pressure price down). 

You just seem to think consumption is GDP independent.  If that was so, China's consumption would be 4X that of the US.  It's half.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:45 | 4998054 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Costs to drill 8000 feet and frack are NOT adjustable and could never be adjusted to work economically for $40 a barrel oil.  In fact, they are leveraged out to make the math work now and that math is going to catch up with them eventually...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:52 | 4998085 ekm1
ekm1's picture

North Dakota oil output is over propagandized.

The gulf is what matters


USA produces 8.5 million barrells per day as opposed to 7 million a couple of years ago, but still consumes about 18.5 million barrells per day.


Saudis and Canadians rule and will always rule.


People are confusing Crude oil with Natural Gas.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:58 | 4998174 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Government rebates can make those operations profitable instantly

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:18 | 4998309 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

So your argument is that anything is profitable as long as someone else is willing to endlessly bail them out.  Fantastic.  How would a small business owner get in line for such largesse?  And if he was getting it, why would he produce ANYTHING but the bare minimum so he could maximize bailout gains and reduce loss causing overhead and operations?  The end result of endless subsidy to a profitless operation is naturally a reduction in production or a reduction in quality because that is what is losing all the money.

Your problem is you have zero functional understanding of economics.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:32 | 4998429 ekm1
ekm1's picture

We live in communism, currently

Economics = Politics right now


Government controls everything.

Capitalism is dead

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:42 | 4998516 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

What I just said applies to Communism as well.  There is no incentive to react to demand.  A shorage, reduction in production, and price increase is inevitable.  History shows that is exactly what happens every single time.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:55 | 4998971 ekm1
ekm1's picture

I lived in communism. I am an expert of communism

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:33 | 4997975 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

The issue that ekm has that he believe there will ever be a chance at a true organic recovery. It ain't happening. Ever. Never gonna happen. The 80's and 90's are over. They were an anomoly. We are not going full blown communism on our way to a recovery. We are going full blown communism on our way to full blown communism.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:40 | 4998017 ekm1
ekm1's picture

There can be recovery if oil dumped for consumption, not held in storage for derivatives.


As it happened in 2009 when oil dumped and got to $40, economy rebounded organically.


Communism thing won't change anytime soon. Rebound will be small, but at least there won't be any contraction as it is occurring now

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:47 | 4998073 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There will never be an organic rebound. If oil doesn't kill us the debt levels and the extreme over capacity in every sector will. Growth is dead...period. War is inevitable.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:51 | 4998118 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Debt is easy. It will be defaulted on.

That's a good thing.

Financial wipeout is NOT economic collapse.


Financial wipeout releases the real economy from debt chains and economy starts rebounding

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:29 | 4998405 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

Yep, is this really Ron Paul?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:52 | 4998608 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

"Financial wipeout is NOT economic collapse"

Tell that to the sixty year old who loses his job, can't find one, can't live on unemployment, can't get disability or is too young for social security.  Does this depend on what the definition of "is" is?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:54 | 4998962 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Economy is shrinking due to excessive claims on output.

It makes no difference. That money can't buy much if output is not expanded

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:55 | 4998124 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There are no tankers holding oil for higher price.  The very largest (never spoken of for this legend of holding oil off market) hold 2 million barrels.

The US imports 6-7 million bpd.  The supposed tanker storage is holding less than a day of imports.

If you want to hold oil off the market, the place to do it is underground.  If the Saudis decide they make enough money exporting half of what they do now, and will keep the rest for the grandkids, and the Russians decide the same thing, this world will explode.

But this has nothing to do with tankers.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:56 | 4998161 ekm1
ekm1's picture

A lot of oil is stored onshore, most of it actually.

Cushing storage is leased for private storage and a lot of it is not reported.

World is storing oil onshore and not reporting it


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:00 | 4998190 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

The SPR is for emergencies and has NEVER emptied.  It's not there to make a profit or to drive or hold price up.

Look, you don't understand oil, but if you really WANT to be contrarian, there was another comment that goes like this (and has merit).

If you raise the price of oil should this pressure consumption down?  The concept is NO.  It will raise consumption.  Why?  The poor will be denied gasoline.  So governments will subsidize it.  Presto, increased consumption.

There, now you can be contrarian.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:09 | 4998262 ekm1
ekm1's picture

SPR is in Texas, not in Oklahoma.

SPR is totally a different thing

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:08 | 4998237 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

That is probably the most ignorant statement you have made yet.  I promise you that companies which are unable to make a profit selling products close down and production does stop.  This is an economic fact proven during many attempts at price control.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:38 | 4998486 ekm1
ekm1's picture

You are assuming USA is a capitalist country.

No, it is not, it is a communist country.


Capitalism is dead.

Government control almost everything.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:14 | 4997829 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

It's never been a better time to buy a nail gun.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:24 | 4997898 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture


Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:40 | 4998023 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Except good luck finding 22 ammo...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:44 | 4998049 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

skulls way too thick for that one.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:16 | 4997841 IANAE
IANAE's picture

FOMC next week...cue the mission impossible theme music...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:17 | 4997843 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

Why don't we just build a new illegal immigrant community in Detroit......Problem solved!!  Bwahahahahahah!!  Let the mexicans and the jigs duke it out!!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:17 | 4997849 youngman
youngman's picture

This statistic should be right on...I mean either a house sells or it doesnt...easy to track I would think....guess not...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:29 | 4997928 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There is that issue of revisions, isn't there.

I guess they revise it to take care of all those houses that closed in May but the buyer changed his mind, moved all his furniture back out and gave it back to the seller, who had to renege on his new house buy and move his furniture back in.

Must be lots of those.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:31 | 4997952 IANAE
IANAE's picture

interesting trend in the misses starting in March...have to wonder how long that's going to continue.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:40 | 4998503 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

The downturn is going to continue for a long time.  I live outside one of the most wealthy areas in the entire country, if not world.  Building houses was going gang busters through May, and as I previously observed about a month ago, things strarted grinding to a halt.  

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:47 | 4998575 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

There's several 'fallouts' in my area already. The "SOLD" signs that builders flash have been replaced with "AVAILABLE." There's still a sh*tload of people who cannot afford a house but try anyway not giving  ahoot about their debt levels or consequences. The thinking has evolved to the "I'll just walk away" attitude.


What a cultural shift!?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:38 | 4998482 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

If it were that easy, we wouldn't need government.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:23 | 4997895 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Do those figures include trailer homes?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:24 | 4997896 kowalli
kowalli's picture

One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?

They overestimate more that 40% and told about only 20%..

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:26 | 4997913 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

About that jobs number


3 million Americans now without unemployment benefits due to congressional gridlock - The Washington Post


The number of Americans who would qualify for federal long-term unemployment benefits -- a program Congress allowed to expire in December -- has now hit 3 million, according to Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee.

The 3 million mark comes months after the Senate passed a bipartisan deal that would have restored federally-provided long-term unemployment benefits, but that bill was never taken up for a vote in the GOP-controlled House.



And this


Reid Doubts Unemployment Extension Will Come Up in Highway Bill Debate | The World's Greatest Deliberative Body


 He signaled that he did not think extraneous items would be attached to the must-pass bill, regardless of which version advances. ”I doubt it” Reid said when asked if an unemployment insurance extension would be a piece of the Senate’s highway bill debate.


So have those 3 million found jobs? The game is clear 3 million falling of the Government ( State ) longer accounted for. This brings the data that they rely on so much into context and debate for sure.


But will be ignored.



Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:31 | 4997946 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Household formation is still a fucking joke, and the US is heading where the Asian countries have been for a long time now.  Living with the 'rents.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:32 | 4997958 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

All weather All terrain TENTS! FORWARD!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:33 | 4997967 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Good time for the government to create shell government companies and IPO them. They'll make more money than raising taxes. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:36 | 4997978 Seer
Seer's picture

But... Bloomberg says that the world is fine!

Some headlines from today:


Hamptons Home Sales Rise as Buyers Find More Inventory


Asian Stocks Near Six-Year High After HSBC China PMI Data


Treasuries Drop as U.S. Jobless Claims Decline to 8-Year Low


And I see that stawks are slightly up today, as well as gold down almost 1%.

Clearly, TPTB are still in FULL control... (until they are not)

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:36 | 4997984 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

It's too hot to go looking at new houses.



Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:44 | 4998050 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

the house flippers took their windfall profits and they are vacationing in the hamptons, same thing used to happen on wall street when it was the gogo market

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:42 | 4998040 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

hmm 2 standard deviations in anything is considered the limit, so 40% of that 20% is 8%. gee maybe i have a career as a government economist?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:45 | 4998063 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

I can tell you exactly why the drop....

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:11 | 4998279 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

It's gotta be Putin's fault.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:32 | 4998433 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

new article in Newsweek provides quite a bit of insight into Russian President Vladimir Putin's daily routine and private life.


The writer, Ben Judah, spent three years interviewing those close to Putin for his book "Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Love with Vladimir Putin."

Judah's insights into Putin's life come from former prime ministers, current ministers, regional governors, senior bureaucrats, close advisers, and personal aides to the president.

Here's what he learned:

Putin sleeps in. He wakes up late in the morning and eats his first meal at about noon. He always has cottage cheese with his breakfast, and he also likes quail eggs and fruit juice.

He does "much of Russia's thinking" in a pool. Putin always goes for a swim after breakfast because he likes to get alone time in the water. He wears goggles and swims in a front crawl.

He does a daily "cleanse." He works out after his swim, preferring weights over cardio in the gym, and then immerses himself into both hot and cold baths.

He doesn't like the internet. His offices don't have TVs, and he uses "only the most secure technologies" to communicate, which to Putin means paper and fixed-line, Soviet-era telephones. Putin rarely uses the internet because he "finds the screens within screens and the bars building up with messages confusing."

He's high maintenance. When he leaves Russia, Putin ships in Russian cooks, cleaners, and waitresses for his trip. When he stays in hotels, his team removes their sheets and toiletries and replaces them with Kremlin-approved items under anti-contamination seals. He doesn't eat any foreign food that hasn't been cleared by the Kremlin.

He doesn't like spending time in the Kremlin. Putin lives in a palace outside Moscow because he dislikes the traffic, pollution, and "human congestion" of the city. He doesn't like visiting the Kremlin either and prefers to work at his estate.

His inner circle calls him “Tsar.” They used to call him "Boss."

He doesn't have much of a personal life. Putin's parents are dead, and he and his wife divorced. He has two daughters, but they don't live in Russia. He reportedly has women — models, photographers, and gymnasts — "come to him at night," but these are just rumors. Putin does, however, take comfort in his canine companion, a black Lab.

His life is monotonous, but he fancies himself a hard worker. Putin claims he "works harder than any leader since Stalin."

Read more:

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:24 | 4998378 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Ahhh... blame it on the weather.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:26 | 4998386 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Start accepting student loan money for down payments and you'll get those homes sold.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:29 | 4998414 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Naturally, the equity *markets* rose off the daily lows on this report.

Naturally, Gene.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:35 | 4998460 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Sell them?  Why sell the new homes?  Don't ya know, in China they just build 'em.  Selling what you build is so 20th century...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:43 | 4998545 skbull44
skbull44's picture

...and the song that Fed and market shills will sing will be one Milli Vanilli sang (or lip-synced as the case may be) in 1989, 

Gotta blame it on something
Blame it on the rain (rain)
Blame it on the stars (stars)
Whatever you do don't put the blame on you
Blame it on the rain yeah yeah
You can blame it on the rain

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:59 | 4998654 zeronero
zeronero's picture

Most of you are just bitter idiots without a clue who follow the leader in bashing anyone making money today.

But some of you have a decent understanding of the current state of the markets. So my question is if you know the Fed has rigged the markets to keep climbing why don't you either invest your own capital or raise capital to actively manage in the markets? Get with the program.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:49 | 4998930 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

So, if something is rigged, jump right in? This is known as 'bigger fool investing'. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:47 | 4998914 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

As soon as they start accepting EBT for mortgage payments, this beeyotch will achieve escape velocity.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 13:28 | 4999178 MASTER OF UNIVERSE

New Housing Starts moved to New Condo Starts for better margin and

the trend is not recovering back to New Housing Starts. Construction en masse has moved on to condo building for now. Single family homes are

not pulling in the same profit whatsoever. Ask a homebuilder near you.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:18 | 4999448 Spungo
Spungo's picture

I sure hope I don't get priced out of this market forever


"How will they ever pay for all those unfunded liabilities? "
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