New Home Sales Collapse 20% From May To Dec 2012 Levels; Biggest Miss In A Year

Tyler Durden's picture




 

New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May  (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for 'weather' is over and the market to surge: it somehow was magically revised lower by more than 10% to only 442K) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.

The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower as follows:

  • March: 410K to 408K
  • April: 425K to 408K
  • May: 504K to 442K

What is even more troubling in the "survey" vs "reality" world is this collapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists' expectations, below the lowest guess and a massive miss from almost highest estimate Joe Lavorgna's 510k.

 

 

 

Where the biggest revision was: sales in the West. One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?

 

And this is all going to be quite a shock for the homebuilders...

 

Finally, here is your long-term recovery:

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Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:07 | 4997760 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

sounds bullish, sell treasuries/buy stokks....

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997766 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It was the weather.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997798 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

What will the "subsidized foreign workers" do for worK? The horror! 

/sarc

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997855 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Who will be the first to blame "the Jews"?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:29 | 4997939 power steering
power steering's picture

King Barry

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:35 | 4997963 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

People with 29.5 hr/wk jobs just usually rent.

 

They also usually just pay the fine rather than take Obamacare.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:38 | 4998009 power steering
power steering's picture

This is why we need to replenish the pool of new home buyers by bringing in all these people from Hondouras

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:41 | 4998030 AnnndItsGone
AnnndItsGone's picture

But... But... US is creating more Jobs which means a fucking flood of money to the economy isn`t? 

I don`t know anymore if i want to see the circus on fire with all this bullshit crap incongruente data that`s beeing showed or if i`m worried..

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:01 | 4998194 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Still a better deal to stay with Mom & Dad / Sis & Bro with all their eccentricities than to borrow from Wells,Citi,BofA,Chase or any of the cartel scumbags.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:58 | 4998991 NihilistZero
NihilistZero's picture

TPTB have been trying to destroy the family unit for years.  How ironic that their greed and hubris is rebuilding familial ties for many.  I live with extended family and everyone working/coming together through these hard times has been great!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:22 | 5006343 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That would make a lot of sense if he did.  It would also put a lot of people in the uncomfortable position of agreeing with that man.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997862 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

As much as I love hysterical hand-waving headlines, a drop from 442K to 406K is about 8% by my calculator.  But since we're playing with numbers that all come straight out of the rubber room anyway, call it whatever you want.  20% is fine with me.  For that matter, so is 50%.  Or 80%.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:24 | 4997891 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Heh, yeah - prophalatic numbers for the numerically challenged.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:23 | 4997894 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

442 was revised from 500+

and, because it will never get old:

 

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

 

That 500 number messed up this pretty graph in May.  Now we're back to where it belongs.

In the abyss.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:36 | 4997985 power steering
power steering's picture

I am reminded of NASDAQ 1999-2000

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:31 | 4997948 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Here is how you get 20%:

  • In June algos react to a whopping 504K new home sales print, market soars
  • In July aglos react to a 20% lower 406K new home sales print, or rather, they do not react at all.
Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:55 | 4998069 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I know what you meant.

The fact that algos react only in an upward direction should tell you that these numbers aren't what's driving markets at all.  They're just the 'excuse du jour' for what's really driving things- the flood of central bank-supplied liquidity, worldwide, marching the markets inexorably higher.  It's the only game in town.

We can quibble over a few thousand units or a few percentage points, but the overall new home market is running at HALF of what it would be in "normal" times.  HALF.  And yet that's apparently NO PROBLEMO for the markets.  Record high after record high.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:03 | 4998220 JRobby
JRobby's picture

"the flood of central bank-supplied liquidity, worldwide, marching the markets inexorably higher.  It's the only game in town."

+10,000 !!!

Combine that with the proposals to limit redemptions on MM funds reported here yesterday.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 14:09 | 4999397 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

How will they ever pay for all those unfunded liabilities?  Tax.  Tax.  Tax.  Inflate.  Inflate.  Inflate. 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:25 | 5006350 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

So it's a wash eh?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:11 | 4997780 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

I hear there is an IPO coming for a unicorn ranch...300X oversubscribed!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:13 | 4997813 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I've been selling "unicorn farts in a bottle" and sales are booming!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:18 | 4998327 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The green ones ?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:42 | 4998533 JRobby
JRobby's picture

Mistified that some troll would junk such brilliance.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:12 | 4997810 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

And sell all your gold. Immediately. 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:27 | 5006355 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Not a problem.  I bought when it was hot over 1900 and sold at 1150 just like the guys at CNBC.  We are gonna be so rich you suckers.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:07 | 4997763 Eastwood
Eastwood's picture

BULLISH!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997778 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Absolutely!

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997770 Cattender
Cattender's picture

it's a Recovery! Jeez am i tired of saying that.. shit.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:09 | 4997773 IANAE
IANAE's picture

anyone else see LOTS of homes for sale... 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:17 | 4997850 Dazman
Dazman's picture

Yes. In my recent hunt for an apartment I also drove around looking for homes here in Boca Raton, FL and quite a lot were up for sale.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:27 | 4997926 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

I believe it's known as a "rush for the exits"

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997782 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

The DOW was red - No kiddin'.  I seen it wit my own 2 eyez.  It was I tellz-ya.  I can't wait to tell my kids what I seen!!!  Whew.  I'm glad that's over.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:10 | 4997792 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Funny how this headline hasn't made it on the front page of Yahoo. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:49 | 4998099 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

an hour later, and Yahoo finance still screaming something about how great Facefuck and Suckerberg are... lol

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:02 | 4998198 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's funny how long that story has been up when they usually rotate through headline stories on a regular basis . It's almost as if they are trying to hide something.But surely the wouldn't do that.... would they?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:14 | 4997795 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

wow! the S&P actually went red for a few seconds on that number, I got a picture of it on my I gadget... now back to your regularly scheduled ramp fest to 2000 and beyond

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:11 | 4997796 pods
pods's picture

Can't wait for the FED to raise rates.  That should make things interesting!

Come on Mr. Yellen, I TRIPLE dog dare you.

(Schwartz created a slight breach of etiquette by skipping the triple dare and going straight for the throat.)

pods

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:16 | 4997838 kowalli
kowalli's picture

no way Fed will raise rates...

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:20 | 4997865 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Pods knows that. We are Japan. The ten year will hit 1% eventually and middle class people who once enjoyed a nice angus steak will be eating dog food out of a can.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:21 | 4997880 kowalli
kowalli's picture

U.S. will not be in 2 years, whats 10 years?

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:27 | 4997923 just-my-opinion
just-my-opinion's picture

You can only pay zero.....taxes already go to interest

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:58 | 4998182 tok1
tok1's picture

the commenrts about Japan and US being the same are wrong.

Japan stocks fell from 40K in 1990 to sub 20K (reaching as low as 7K) ie the Nikkei and still has not recovered (ie it dropped 70% and never got back to even 50%. its still only at 15300 ..where as US equities have broken back to new highes.

Also housing Japan property fells for over 20ys in a row between 2 to 5% every year for over 20ys (not one posative year) and prices are still down 50-70% from their peak, Japan population is shrinking by 250,000 a year for last 3ys and its expected to get worse (population  to go from 127mil  to best 100 mill and possible 80mm.. so in terms of demographics and asset prices theres no comparision, even if US stocks fall now the experiance is not the same.. 

 

 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:15 | 4998301 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You can not compare our stock market to Japan's as the U.S's stated policy is that the market is a policy tool. as far as demographics goes the U.S is a few years behind japan, but we have the same issue. The only thing that is slowing the process is the immigration policy. 

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:42 | 4998527 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Dr Engali... the immigration policy and the flood of unaccountable hot money from Chindia and South America bathing this housing market.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 11:17 | 4998316 pods
pods's picture

The US is caught in the same trap that Japan fell into is what Doc means.

How the US deals with it will be different (and bloodier).

pods

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 12:28 | 4998811 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

No politician was ever selected by pointing out previous or ongoing examples of utter failure now going on nearly thirty years; no.. this time it's different, after all we are Americans..

.."eventually and middle class people who once enjoyed a nice angus steak will be eating dog food out of a can."..

-optimist.. they will be eating raw dog before the happy days returns.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:18 | 4997853 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Raise rates..... Lol. I wish to God they would.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:21 | 4997874 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, they will, Doc.  Every so many years they try to prove they are not in a liquidity trap and they raise rates.  Year later, everything goes in the shitter and they drop them again.

Thu, 07/24/2014 - 10:26 | 4997911 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'll be willing to bet a ham sandwich that the fed funds never goes above 1% again.

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