New Home Sales Collapse 20% From May To Dec 2012 Levels; Biggest Miss In A Year

Tyler Durden's picture

New Home Sales in June plunged to 406k vs 504k in May  (remember that 504k print was the catalyst for 'weather' is over and the market to surge: it somehow was magically revised lower by more than 10% to only 442K) Now that has soaked in, consider this is equal lowest sales print since September 2013 (and Dec 2012) and the biggest miss since July 2013.

The last 3 months of exuberance have all been revised significantly lower as follows:

  • March: 410K to 408K
  • April: 425K to 408K
  • May: 504K to 442K

What is even more troubling in the "survey" vs "reality" world is this collapse in sales when NAHB Sentiment surged to near cycle highs. For context, this is a 5-standard-deviation miss from economists' expectations, below the lowest guess and a massive miss from almost highest estimate Joe Lavorgna's 510k.

 

 

 

Where the biggest revision was: sales in the West. One wonders how it is possible to overestimate sales in one region by 20%?

 

And this is all going to be quite a shock for the homebuilders...

 

Finally, here is your long-term recovery: