But, but, but... the rest of the world's PMIs are soaring as soft-survey data trumps any hard data facts. US Manufacturing dropped from 57.3 to 56.3 despite analysts that were convinced it should rise further to 57.5. This is the biggest miss on record, and the 2nd miss in a row. In spite of soaring markets proving the recoverty is just picking up and accelerating, new export orders weakened, manufacturing production fell, input costs surged, and employment tumbled to 10-month lows. But, stocks are surging on this dismal news...
as Employment tumbled to its worst of the year!
"Worryingly, job creation slid to its lowest since last September, which in part reflects concerns that current sales growth may not be sustained. A key source of concern is export sales, which continue to show disappointingly meagre gains"
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the US data mills churn out a lot of surveys. Since the last FOMC meeting, there have been four new ISM readings and a bunch of regional releases. A popular view is that these surveys are better than hard data.
In our view, however, these data get way too much air time. They give a timely, rough read on the economy, but should get little weight once hard data are released.