11.7% Of The World's At War: Global Geopolitical Risk Mapped

Tyler Durden's picture

You can be forgiven for thinking that the world is a pretty terrible place right now, exclaims JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest. With 11.7% of the world's population currently at war (and a considerably larger percentage seemingly on the verge), it seemed an appropriate time to summarize the main geopolitical risk points in the world.

Deutsche Bank warns Geopolitical Risks Remain High


As Cembalest notes, the list is long... and growing

The downing of a Malaysian jetliner in eastern Ukraine and escalating sanctions against Russia, the Israeli invasion of Gaza, renewed fighting in Libya, civil wars in Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Somalia, Islamist insurgencies in Nigeria and Mali, ongoing post-election chaos in Kenya, violent conflicts in Pakistan, Sudan and Yemen, assorted mayhem in central Africa, and the situation in North Korea, described in a 2014 United Nations Human Rights report as having no parallel in the contemporary world. Only in Colombia does it look like a multi-decade conflict is finally staggering to its end.



For investors, strange as it might seem, such conflicts are not affecting the world’s largest equity markets very much (for now). Perhaps this reflects the small footprint of war zone countries within the global capital markets and global economy, other than through oil production.

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While markets maybe ignorant of the risk flares, economies are not as today's durable goods orders in the US show, even the cleanest dirty shirt is starting to get soiled.

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junction's picture

On the subject of the war against citizen rights, New York City’s total incompetence and probable corruption in handling citizen complaints about police use of illegal chokeholds (see article below) points to a larger problem: Mayor Bloomberg’s sanctioning of criminal conduct in all city agencies, from shakedowns of businesses to collect city fines to hiring his family friends to high positions (e.g. 23 year old Jessica Tisch as counter-terrorism czar) to illegal height variances given to high rise building projects.  Then there is the issue of federal judge Charles Sifton abolishing New York City’s two term limits on Mayor Bloomberg, protecting the judge’s son, Sam Sifton, from being laid off from his job at the New York Times.  Thanks to the almost certain intercession of Bruce Ratner, co-owner of the 8th Avenue New York Times building, instead of being laid off, Sam Sifton became Times restaurant critic, a job he had no qualifications for.  Ratner’s reward was $250 million in financing from 500 green card applicants who invested $500,000 each in his stalled Atlantic Yards project, even though ICE regulations required the $500,000 to create 10 jobs.  The total workforce at the Atlantic Yards project was about 400 employees, all on payroll before the applicants made their “investment.”       --- More than 1,000 city residents claim to be victims of NYPD chokeholds, CCRB says

BY Thomas Tracy


Saturday, July 19, 2014, 7:51 PM

Eric Garner isn’t alone.

More than 1,000 city residents have accused the NYPD of putting them in chokeholds in the past five years, the Civilian Complaint Review Board said Saturday.

The startling numbers were revealed as new CCRB Chair Richard Emery said the board plans to conduct a “comprehensive study” of chokehold complaints and find out why cops are apparently still using the forbidden practice.

Eric Garner died after the NYPD put him in an apparent chokehold during a confrontation in Staten Island.

The chokehold study will be an “agency priority,” according to CCRB Executive Director Tracy Catapano-Fox.

As of July 1, the CCRB had received 58 chokehold complaints against the NYPD this year, but had only substantiated one of them.

Out of the 1,022 chokehold allegations reported between 2009 and 2013, only 462 of the complaints were investigated. Out of that number, just nine were substantiated, according to the CCRB.

There wasn’t enough evidence to prove a chokehold was used in 206 of the cases investigated, officials said.



(Reuters) The CCRB previously investigated 462 of the choke hold complaints it received but only nine of them were substantiated. Ray Kelly, Bill Bratton's predecessor as police commissioner, punished an officer in only one of those cases, docking his vacation days. In another 206 cases, the board was unable to rule either way.


chumbawamba's picture

This is really just a map of the victims of war.  If we include the aggressors then the USA would also be blue.

Leave it to a banker to conveniently forget half the participants in a war.

I am Chumbawamba.

SafelyGraze's picture

let's all work together to get this number up from a puny 11% to something we can be proud of.

like maybe 99%


CrimsonAvenger's picture

If you think in terms of Venn diagrams, there's currently no overlap between the current victims and the People of Wal-Mart. There's got to be some way to make those circles overlap.

NoDebt's picture

Tylers- it's 11:15, the Dow is off 150 pts.  Would you PLEASE post up an article about it so I know it's time to buy the fucking dip right at the bottom?

Atomizer's picture

Start buying the dip, everyone needs a Cleveland Steamer. 


svayambhu108's picture





Oil production: 30%

Pool Shark's picture



World at War????

Scotland is on the map.

Israel is not on the map.


whotookmyalias's picture

Detroit, Ireland, Central American in general, Mexico, Nepal. I guess I have a different definiation of "at war".

Liberal's picture

As a staunch liberal, I think we should all be very grateful that we have a Nobel PEACE Prize winning man in the White House.  The man just loves peace so much he's always golfing to avoid conflict...among other things.

Pendolino's picture

Take it from someone in Scotland - we're not at war - it's so hot right now we can barely be arsed going to the pub! And plenty of us are fed up being dragged into wars by Westminster & the US. Unfortunately the 5% lead by the Unionists will probably mean that we continue to get dragged in for generations to come. What a shame.

NotApplicable's picture

So... at what percentage does WWIII "officially" kick-off?

PhilB's picture

I had to look that one up...pleasantly surprised. 


We didnt start the fire, it was always burning since the world's been turning. 

smokintoad's picture

I was reminded of this episode of the 80's version of the Twilight Zone..


chumbawamba's picture

And he also conveniently forgot Gaza.  Er, on the map.

I am Chumbawamba.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

With the advent of Cleveland "winning" the Repukelican Nationa CONvention one will soon be able to highlight Ohio in blue.  Hell, the entire US could be a war zone if one includes the police state and its war on the serficens.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

Don't forget that Arizona and Texas are about to militarize the border with Mexico, and they have Washington DC acting agressively from the north. Surely Arkansas, Oklahoma, Louisiana ETC will choose the right side.

Oldwood's picture

We are all at war, always have been. Peace is an illusion created to allow your wealth and freedoms to be stolen while you sleep.

Hopeless for Change's picture

Exactly what I was thinking.  The US is not at war?


I am Hopeless for Change  ;-)

Remington IV's picture

DeBlasio's doing a great job ... violent crime + 18% ytd

Sudden Debt's picture

Finally.. A bullish indicator... Is there a hockeystick projection on this one to?

Stonedog's picture

I am certain that with dedicated effort (and esp. under Barack Obama's benevolent guidance) this can successfully be increased to 100%...

Divided States of America's picture

In the US..we have the war on drugs, obesity and prostitution.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

The US government has been involved in starting or supporting 201 armed conflicts of 248 throughout the world since the "war to end all wars" - WWII - and are responsible for killing over 30 million through sanctions, drone bombings, air strikes, or good old-fashion boots on the ground.  http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/05/earth-248-armed-conflicts-ww2-us-started-201-81-killing-30-million-far-arrests-now.html 

Additionally, the US government has military personel in over 130 nations with 900 overseas bases (which means control over the country's central banks, imports/exports, and monetary/fiscal policy). http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2011/sep/14/ron-paul/ron-paul-says-us-has-military-personnel-130-nation/

At the end of the day, this world has been embroiled in armed conflicts or occupation, whether direct US occupation or proxy occupation by US "allies", for my entire life.  Same as it ever was?

Winston Churchill's picture

That was WWI Doctor, not WWII.

Easy to forget, whats 40 million dead between friends ,after all ?

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Appreciate the correction.  The war pigs continue on in earnest is the point, of course.

Chief KnocAHoma's picture

What you say may be true, but would it have been any better if Germany had become a super power? What about the USSR? Would the World be better off under communism? Maybe if Japan had beaten the US they would have ruled the World with kit gloves.

While the US ain't perfect, she is the possible hope for human kind. At least she was before being totally hijacked by the banker class. Now she is doomed to follow in the footsteps of the UK in the best possible outcome, and Germany in the worst possible outcome.

Oldwood's picture

One problem of war today is that to win, you must be proclaimed a war criminal. Like with everything else, the winner is the loser and the loser is the winner. We have been sending troops to fight questionable wars and then telling them to respect human life and not hurt anyone.

There should only be one rule when going into a shooting war...fight to win. Sure, show compassion when possible, but kick the fuckers asses.Otherwise stay home and shut up. Winning is not a matter of killing everyone, but destroying their will to fight, and most importantly destroying the public's support of the fighting. A war can't be sustained without public support. Remember Nam?

How many "innocents" were killed in WWII. Blanket bombing and nukes. If we had not, how long would it have lasted and at what cost in lives?

One reason we have so many wars going now is that they are simply continuations of old wars that were never really decided, only a truce or cease fire. A war with no winners seems to be perpetual.

Somebody kick somebody's ass and lets get this over with.

Ratscam's picture

War on 3 continents = world war III

NoDebt's picture

And women.  Don't forget women.  There was one stoned to death in the street in front of my office this morning for trying to buy birth control pills.

Winston Churchill's picture

With pills I hope, for irony's sake.

toady's picture

Everybody must get stoned.

gdiamond22's picture

There should be a small blue patch painted in the area of Washington D.C. as we should be at war with the megalomaniacs that 'represent' us.

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

So I guess according to that map South Korea is the one just north of North Korea.

Grifter's picture

Comment of the day.  *polite golf clap*

NoDebt's picture

What happens when it gets to 100%?  Morgan Freeman's answer:  "I have no idea."

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

100% is where we get to learn if Krugman's right.

alien-IQ's picture

the market hits a new all time high?

_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

World War III: With a vengeance

Dr. Engali's picture

"The Obama administration’s foreign policies in a number of areas have substantially enhanced the world’s “tranquility” 


~Josh Earnest

 AKA...Bagdad Bob.

NoDebt's picture

I suppose you could look at it from a certain perspective and argue that dead is very tranquil.

gcjohns1971's picture

Are you referring to the Afghan heroin trade?

alien-IQ's picture

You're going to need to broaden your definition of "war" to be accurate about the depth of the problem.

Colonel Klink's picture

But, but Obama just told me the world is the most tranquil under his expert tutelage.

icanhasbailout's picture

US isn't considered "at war"? What are we doing in Afghanistan then?