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Based on the Non-Massaged Data, the US is Back in Recession

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

Beneath all of the bogus economic data, the US economy is tanking again.

 

One of the biggest games played by the bean counters in Washington in the US is the overstatement of GDP growth by understating inflation.

 

Consider this simple example. Let’s say that the US GDP grew by 10% last year. Now let’s say that inflation also grew by 10%. In this scenario, real inflation adjusted GDP growth was ZERO. However, announcing ZERO GDP growth is a major problem politically.

 

So what do the Feds do? They claim that inflation was just 8%, and BOOM you’ve got 2% GDP growth announced for a year in which real GDP growth was actually zero.

 

This game is played all the time via a metric called the GDP “deflator.” Technically what this is meant to do is remove the effects of inflation from the GDP growth numbers to show what real growth was.

 

However, what it actually ends up being is an accounting gimmick that allows the numbers to overstate GDP growth.

 

For this reason, when I look at the US economy’s growth I prefer to use its nominal GDP numbers. These numbers do not include a deflator metric. As such they’re much closer to showing the actual growth as opposed to the gimmicked “real GDP” numbers.

 

With that in mind, take a look at the chart below:

 

 

As you can see, the US economy is once again slowing down rapidly with a sub-4 reading. I’ve circled all of the other times the US economy has registered a reading like this in the last 40 years.

 

ALL of them were periods that were later identified as recessions.

 

So the Fed is once again facing a recession… at a time when it has already cut interest rates to zero and engaged in just about every monetary loosening imaginable. To top it off, inflation is already appearing due to the Fed’s previous actions.

 

There is a term for slow growth and high inflation: it’s stagflation. Sure it doesn’t show up in the official data. But then again, when was the last time reality did show up there?

 

This concludes this article. If you’re looking for the means of protecting your portfolio from the coming collapse, you can pick up a FREE investment report titled Protect Your Portfolio at http://phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/special-reports.html.

 

This report outlines a number of strategies you can implement to prepare yourself and your loved ones from the coming market carnage.

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

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Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:16 | 5006326 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

I understand that Beretta is moving ALL operations out of Maryland because of the new laws passed regarding the Sandy Hook false-flag operation.

I also see that Dicktater 'bama' has issued an E.O. that bans the importation of AK47's made within the Russian Federation to the CONUS.

I'd go long on ammunition and firearms parts suppliers, right about (wait for it: in 3, 2, 1,) NOW.

SEE, the economy is in RECOVERY! (Well, not the banking shit, and not the general populace that still uses Fedscrips to buy stuff; but the UNDERGROUND economy!).

Did they coin the term 'Green Shoots' in order that those who see any 'Greens' should SHOOT FIRST? Just a thought... Say. What color are the berets of those U.N. troops?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:35 | 5006016 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Cool only thing left is a debt jubilee!  LOL like that would ever happen.  For us peons anyway.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:33 | 5006001 NoPension
NoPension's picture

Great times. Peoples can spend more quality time with their kids, or gardening. Or curl up with a good book.

Oh, Dear Leader ; Mighty and Great ; thou thankest thee for the gifts thee hast bestowed upon our wretched mortal souls.
Amen.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:59 | 5005890 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Anyone that believes this should report to Room 101 for "training."

                                             /s

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:55 | 5006283 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture
"Based on the Non-Massaged Data, the US is Back in Recession"

Was that the recession that ended in '09, or the one that ended in '81 (or the one that ended in 1908, or the one that ended in '43)?

Do you mean to tell me that the last recession actually ENDED? I really hate it when I miss these events. I wanted to go partying when it ended, you know, but I was too busy trying to eat and keep a roof over my head to notice when it ended the last time.

Phoenix Capital just blew out all the candles on my celebration cake! I mean, it's like taking candy away from a baby or something!

SHIT.

Now, I guess I'll just have to go back and keep stacking what I am stacking (like I always do; and you should too).

The 'great depression' never ended; it just changed names.

I like that dip in the chart that drops below the measurement line (around late 2008 or so). All of a sudden, like a 'miracle bubble', it shot right back up again! OH; I KNOW! It was 'Quantitative Easing' (printing fiat currency with great big banks of copying machines), what done it!

Fucking bean-counting monopoly-money-fooled idiots!

I can still buy .22 LR rounds, and since I make twice as much as I used to, they cost the same as they used to in man-hours (but the numbers have been fudged). WELL I DON'T MAKE twice as much as I used to, but I still buy them anyway (along with some other perks that I treat myself to). Hamburger is the 'new steak', and TRUTH IS TREASON, in the Empire of LIES!

SO: WHEN, exactly, did the CONUS 'dip' 'back' 'into recession'??? I need an exact date here (not some stupid wiggly-lined chart). AND: WHEN, EXACTLY, did the CONUS STOP being in a 'recession'??? Was it on Barry Soetoro's inauguration day back in '09???

I'm sure Phoenix Capital can provide the exact details (probably to the minute) on these important questions.

The recession ends when I SAY it ends! (Ben Shalom 'Helicopter' Bernanke).

The recession STARTS when I SAY IT STARTS (Mr. Yellen).

But 'WAIT, WHAT'? Our DEAR LEADER OBAMA just got done with a speech in which he stated that prosperity was just around the corner!

Damn, 'kchrisvc', I'm SO CONFUSED!

I think I'll go back to my quarters and study up on my technical journals now. A little Scotch and some ice are waiting.

Montgomery Scott

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:11 | 5005726 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

"Speak the lie long enough and eventually the people will have to accept it as the truth".

(the resounding clarion call and the success mantra of all Organized Religions and governments).

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:44 | 5005849 snodgrass
snodgrass's picture

The country has been in continuing recessions since 2008. Only the inflation produced as a result of money printing has given the illusion of any growth.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:10 | 5005725 Comte d'herblay
Comte d'herblay's picture

"Speak the lie long enough and eventually the people will have to accept it as the truth".

(the resounding clarion call and the success mantra of all Organized Religions and governments).

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 18:27 | 5005590 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

you can't argue with Ghram when he posts grapfhs to proove that the end is nigh. You can't argue that!!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 18:50 | 5005666 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

Bullish Chart!

 

I'm "All-In" TWTR on Monday.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 18:56 | 5005665 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

We will finally see the US economy show impressive growth next quarter.

 

(The FED said it, so it has to be true, right)?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:03 | 5006305 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

I like your style, kid.

7 weeks, and you're getting the hang of it!

LAST quarter was only an overall averaged yearly rise of -2.9 percent in the GDP. NEXT quarter, the results will be better (WE PROMISE!).

(This message brought to you from your friends at the MSM and the global central banking system, where 'IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH')

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 17:05 | 5005290 starman
starman's picture

Cool aid for breakfast lunch and dinner! Life's beautiful really.

Some of just c a nt afford it.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 16:28 | 5005121 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Great chart!  Thank you!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 16:22 | 5005075 Goldbugger
Goldbugger's picture

Yap, but it won't be realized for months.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 15:45 | 5004880 Duc888
Duc888's picture

 

 

 

Recession, that's some funny shit.

 

This is the continuation of the 2008 Depression brought to us all by PONZI incorporated, otherwise known (here in the USSA) as "The Fed".

 

 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:21 | 5005973 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

yep, used to be panic, then coined depression, now coined recession.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:48 | 5005860 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

The GDP has to GO UP on paper every Quarter or in this case at least every 2 Quarters - Otherwise our Debt Ratio looks out of Whack.

Real Gross Domestic Product
2014:Q1: 15,824.2 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars

Graph for public debt...2014:Q1: 17,601,227 Millions of Dollars, 2013:Q1: 16,771,378 Millions of Dollars, say $900B per year, so 5.366%.

Gross GDP 2014:Q1: 17,016.0 Billions of Dollars * 5.366% = $913B, so Gross GDP will be = $17,929B... They will never make it.

FRED Uses Fiscal years, and is not up to date with 2nd QTR Data which we know was negative. They are lucky to get $100B in Real GDP increases OR about .632%

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 15:44 | 5004872 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

You mean we left recesson?  How'd I miss it?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 19:25 | 5005777 scraping_by
scraping_by's picture

You were stuck in the Real Economy. If you'd been in assets, the more abstract the better, you'd be all green shoots and blue skies.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:44 | 5006258 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

That is so true. There is nothing to invest in that is real, even cash itself (which is barely real) that has increased in value. the only things that  are increasing are those things which are intangible in worth. A stock or other financial instrument only exists for a single purpose...speculation. Anything of utility value is declining in value because demand for utility is in decline. It is simply insane.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:35 | 5006370 MontgomeryScott
MontgomeryScott's picture

Your investment strategies are really bad, it seems.

Try NOW to buy 130 milligram tablets of Potassium Iodide. I DARE YOU to try to find a SUPPLIER (no perscription needed, and until 2011, as common as dirt in the supermarkets), much less a look at pricing.

Have you priced other essential staple products, like meat or non-GMO foods, or potable water? REALLY?

They say that the Golden Rule means 'those who have the gold make the rules', but in reality, those who have the food and the water and the weapons required to protect the stockpile ACTUALLY can take the Gold from those who haven't prepared for the eventuality of being cut off from being able to spend their toilet-paper currencies in orer to protect themselves.

You had better consider what I state, and take it seriously (instead of whining about the false reality called 'the markets'). Mathematically, it WILL end (and quite badly; perhaps beyond your envisionment).

SHIT. I don't like this any more than you do. I hate this, in fact.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 16:14 | 5005035 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

There will come a time when nominal GDP is -5% but they will claim that bad deflation as measured by the GDP deflator was -10% so Real GDP was actually a rosy +5%.

That will most likely occur during the fall 2016 election...

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:16 | 5006217 scrappy
scrappy's picture

Taking a crap must add to GDP, it's domestic and takes real work.

True Output, and not paper pushing except the toilet kind, if you can afford it.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:37 | 5006021 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And -5% unemployment.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:02 | 5005898 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

That is called a "Winston Smith" economy.

 

Actually, as Winston was aware, the chocolate ration was to be reduced from thirty grammes to twenty at the end of the present week. All that was needed was to substitute for the original promise a warning that it would probably be necessary to reduce the ration at some time in April.

As soon as Winston had dealt with each of the messages, he clipped his speakwritten corrections to the appropriate copy of The Times and pushed them into the pneumatic tube. Then, with a movement which was as nearly as possible unconscious, he crumpled up the original message and any notes that he himself had made, and dropped them into the memory hole to be devoured by the flames.

                                                             "1984," Orwell

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