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Gold Trends: 2014 & Beyond

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Along with Incrementum's 94-page extravaganza on gold, this infographic, the final in our 2014 Gold Series (part 1, part 2, part 3, & part 4 here) looks to the future, covering gold trends that investors should be watching through the rest of the year and beyond. With input from some of the most important names in gold such as Brent Cook, Doug Casey, Frank Holmes, Bob Moriarty, and James Fraser, we aim to cover the broadest and most important signals for investors to watch. Those include Chinese wealth, Indian demographics, money printing, debt, and a lack of significant gold discoveries.

 

 

Source: Visual Capitalist

 

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Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:07 | 5005910 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

Yummy ... real money!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:17 | 5005948 knukles
knukles's picture

Don't forget the presentation is made by a vested interest in higher gold prices.
Similar to ObamaCare really being an insurance industry subsidization mechanism, supported fully by the insurance providers under the pretense of social well being.

Disclosure.  I am long the stuff, dudes and dudettes, just being realistic.
We should always search for information, rather than affirmation.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:21 | 5005970 Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

Doug Casey.

Um, no.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:49 | 5006047 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What a bunch of propaganda bullshit with the 

ambulance chasing gold shills like casey. Gold protects me from and is ahedge against bankster counterFIAT, that's why I'm bullish on it, and not on a bunch of huckster salesmen.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:57 | 5006058 strannick
strannick's picture

You have the choice between the honesty and prudence of Govt, or the stability and rarity of gold. Three thousand years and 3 billion Chindians can't be wrong.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 21:25 | 5006120 Elvis the Pelvis
Elvis the Pelvis's picture

Gold is going no place.  Deflation is your new god.  Now get down and pray.  Bitchez.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:49 | 5006272 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Deflation????

I guess you must be living in a hole somewhere, where I live everything I purchase is on the rise especially the supplies for my business. Maybe you should try taking your head out of your ass every once in a while

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:17 | 5006508 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

Yep gold going up this time and if not this time next time or the time after that or the one after that. Where is Jim Sinlair-Sprott-King-Furgison with a $5000 call.

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:03 | 5006651 MeelionDollerBogus
Sat, 07/26/2014 - 14:14 | 5007551 RevRex
RevRex's picture

Anyone seen my good buddy Chumblez? I haven't seen him around since the other day when he was throwing the 'N' word around.....

 

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 10:00 | 5006906 logicalman
logicalman's picture

Gold's going nowhere......

It's the 'value' of the paper crap being swapped for it that changes.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 11:05 | 5007046 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

He's right,you know; MY gold's going nowhere. I'm keeping it safely hidden,... at the bottom of the lake...

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:16 | 5006596 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

Wassa' matta' you, youse left da' building or something, Elvis? Six months ago chicken in this burg was $.79/lb. on sale. Those days are gone and never to return. So what deflation were you talkin' about?

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:02 | 5006650 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Haven't seen deflation since the late 30's.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 07:39 | 5006749 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

As long as central banking exists, deflation will not.

It's their worst nightmare. The price of the things we need go down (great for us), costs of servicing their epic debts go up (bad for them, and us)

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 21:30 | 5006059 strannick
strannick's picture

.Casey is a tedious ass

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:48 | 5006270 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

China & India

China has same situation as USA, they need refinancing constantly or they will have a crash. So that leaves India, who I hear has a lot of Debt which makes them a poor choice for International Currency. So no China, no India.

Does India have the same structural need for Refinancing every year or whatever??? Will India Crash too?

Gold Demand may continue and arise in a US Crash from other sources such as Rich Bastard Bankers from Europe and of course Rich Chines, Rich Brazilians, Rich Russians, Rich South Africans!!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:39 | 5006381 Dave
Dave's picture

Yes he is an ass. But he's got balls. I am impressed by some of the deals he's made where others fear to tread.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:29 | 5006522 capitallosses
capitallosses's picture

Yes, a tedious ass, along with many others, until they're not. Like the Thai food I'm eating, until its not (and I'm digging into the freeze dried).

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:08 | 5006199 Ookspay
Ookspay's picture

A wise man once told me that the things that are the most important and indispensable to life we often take for granted the most; Like air, food, water and I will add GOLD!

When the will battles desire, desire always wins...

 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:38 | 5006004 hobopants
hobopants's picture

The biggest problem I find with it, is the fact that it assumes that everything will be great and growth will continue in both the population and income. Looking at whats going on in the world, I'm finding that a hard story to buy.

Increased demand will come from an increasing lack of confidence in the global ponzi, not from India and China popping out more kids.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:52 | 5006052 knukles
knukles's picture

Shit, way things a goin', gonna be a lot of corpses layin' about pretty soon
Near term best investments around might be shrouds caskets and undertakers

The 4 Horsemen'll take care of some of Gaia's stresses

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 21:37 | 5006145 RichardParker
RichardParker's picture

Fundamentals for gold are lousy; little is consumed, can not earn interest, storage/ transport, mine overcapacity etc.

However the fundamentals for fiat currencies are much, much worse. Therefore long gold and possibly lead...

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:53 | 5006279 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

Who the fuck cares if gold is up or down long term or short term. If you know your history and dont let the propaganda bother you in the end we all know the dollar is DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!     The Chinese and Russians are not hoarding it because they like the color

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:15 | 5006324 Bear
Bear's picture

And we all know that in the end .gov will come for your gold ... probably by taxing the sale of all gold and gold products

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:59 | 5006647 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

That's why you leave so you and your gold are out of their reach.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 08:11 | 5006777 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And that will make the price go down?  And that will make people hide it or turn it in?  Here is the reality.  Gold cannot be confiscated unless you agree to have it confiscated.  ANd it was never confiscated in the US, it was purchased.  Then the price skyrocketed.  They will continue taking bank accounts, pensions, and companies because that is what they can take and what you cannot hide.  The only people who will have anything left will be those with gold.  And that is just the way it always works.  Repeating all the banker PR in the world is not going to change anything.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 11:41 | 5007070 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Funny, how history always repeats:

"It don't signify to you with your brilliant look-out, but as to myself, my guiding-star always is, 'Get hold of portable property.'" (24.41) - Wemmick from Charles Dickens' Great Expectations.

Commentary: "Wemmick is all about owning goods that can be moved quickly, so his concept of money is closely tied to mobility. He knows that wealth (in the vague stocks, land, and savings kind of way) can be appropriated and lost, and he doesn't care about having the "right" kind of money in land; he just wants to live comfortably and to be able to keep hold of his wealth."

 Two words for the coming crisis: Portable Property.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 14:43 | 5007600 PrintemDano
PrintemDano's picture

When the government decides to tax the shit out of your gold the Blackmarket magically appears.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:07 | 5005911 Slave
Slave's picture

I figured out what happened to all the missing gold.

It's been used to make Obama's gigantic golden dildo.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:13 | 5005936 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Guess what... you didn't make/build that. ;-)

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:09 | 5005915 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

That's all very pretty but what will it do when China's neverending economic growth story comes to an end?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:18 | 5005959 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Maybe that's when we find out where the gold is.  Any guesses?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:22 | 5005974 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

I'm thinking it's being used by China and the Usual Suspects to turn lead into even more gold:

http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/constitution/item/16881-epa-closure...

First, the EPA’s closing of the country’s last lead smelting facility follows close on the heels (within a little over a month) of Secretary of State John Kerry’s signing of the United Nations’ Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) “on behalf of President Barack Obama and the people of the United States.”

Article 3 of that agreement outlaws the buying, selling, trading, or transferring by civilians of all “ammunition/munitions fired, launched or delivered by the conventional arms.”

By making it impossible to manufacture ammunition, it becomes impossible for civilians to own it. Mind you, such prohibitions do not apply to government. In fact, under the Arms Trade Treaty, the national governments of member countries are given monopoly control of the entire ammunition stockpile of that country.

Another dot not being identified by other outlets reporting on the Doe Run story is the relationship of the closure to another multinational agreement: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

What does the United States' membership in the TPP have to do with the EPA’s forced closure of a lead smelting plant — a plant, while not critical to the manufacture of ammunition, certainly important to that crucial function?

Two of the countries from which the United States will now be importing lead are Peru and Australia — two members of the 13-nation bloc participating in the TPP.

The third exporter that the United States will soon rely on for the lead necessary to make ammunition? China. Although China isn’t currently negotiating with the other Pacific Rim countries in establishing the TPP, on November 1, the Chinese state-run media reported:

China and the United States strongly intend to engage each other in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a "high-standard" trade agreement involving the US and other countries including Japan and Australia, according to insiders close to both governments.

China's leaders see entering into regional trade and agreements as an opportunity for the nation to pursue market-oriented reform and transform its economic development pattern.

Those goals will be high on the agenda next week when the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China convenes in Beijing.

"I was informed by high-level US officials recently that the US side hasn't meant to exclude China from the TPP trade arrangement," said Long Yongtu, who was China's chief negotiator for its entry into the World Trade Organization.

Long commented on Friday at the start of a two-day international forum on emerging economies, which was organized by the China Institute for Reform and Development.

"The Chinese side is also taking an active interest in the TPP. When it's ready, we are going to launch negotiations with the US," Long added.

In Novermber 2011, President Obama tipped his hand in this high-stakes game of trade talks when he told Chinese media, “Now, if China says, we want to consult with you about being part of this [the TPP] as well, we welcome that.”

Connect those dots and the picture gets clearer: The Obama administration will stop at nothing to absolutely abolish the right of the people to keep and bear arms. The means to this end are mounting: first, the flurry of executive orders unconstitutionally infringing on that right; second, the signing of a UN treaty explicitly calling for the disarmament of civilians, including the restriction on the purchase of ammunition; third, although the shutdown of domestic lead smelting capacity does not signal the end of domestic production of ammunition, it does indirectly force Americans to turn to fellow members of the unconstitutional sovereignty-stealing Trans-Pacific Partnership, as well as to communist China for a key component of ammunition manufacturing.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:29 | 5005989 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

China using it's CB to purchase metals while we buy stawks.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 21:22 | 5006107 jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

I'm long tire weights.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:24 | 5006230 RichardParker
RichardParker's picture

Long on "spent" lead acid car batteries from trade-ins.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:19 | 5005963 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

Pfffft, obviously somebody doesn't watch CNBC.

China's bull is immortal because they can build buildings nobody uses and sell metal that doesn't exist.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:09 | 5005917 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

New highs by the end of the year, then it's to the moon, Alice!!!!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:16 | 5005949 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Good data except Chinese gold demand is more accurate here:

http://www.ingoldwetrust.ch/

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:17 | 5005950 mastersnark
mastersnark's picture

Hey, that's great and all, but how do these dudes account for the Fed's sale of a billion dollars of gold futures EVERY FUCKING DAY to keep it under 1300?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:20 | 5005969 knukles
knukles's picture

They don't.  They ignore it. 
Just as many out there swallow hook, line and sinker the happy little aphorism that all the gold ever mined would fit in an Olympic sized swimming pool.  Which is pretty damned hard to believe considering that nobody knows how much of the shit's been mined, since "ever"
Duh.

Lotta bad aphorisms and legend surrounding such a wonderful item.... sigh

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:28 | 5005988 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

One day, in the not too distant future, a large entity steps up and says, "Okay, we will buy all that paper, but we want it delivered in physical form."  That is the day that COMEX shits a brick (because they only have a few musty old tungsten bars at this point), but not a gold brick.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:31 | 5005994 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

What if that day already occurred and someone is keeping the transaction fertummelt?  Fining "colluding" banks and being a right awful fershtinkiner?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:34 | 5006005 knukles
knukles's picture

And they claim Lumpus Insertus and force cash settlements... or better yet, cause shares of GLD to be delivered.
Read the Delivery Manual.
Nuh uh ...

the rules
be writ
to pick
the nit
and not deliver
even a bit
     -
CRIMEX Shave

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:46 | 5006043 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Isn't Comex's physical supply set to run out next year? (I remember reading a 2yr figure last year)

Either way, the day that GLD / SLV can't deliver any more physical is when the Ponzi folds.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:23 | 5005955 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

Gold Trend #5:  US Sanctions / the great treasury flush / the yellow BRICS road

Fercockt!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:19 | 5005960 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

Here we go again, the bugs are once again getting ahead of themselves. A major hammer is due to fall on the metals. Don't fool yourself into believing all this crap. More likely than not, we will probably see 1100 before we see 2000. That's just how big moves are made.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:20 | 5005966 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Is that you GS in with your infinite wisdom?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:23 | 5005976 MountainMan
MountainMan's picture

Only time will tell, but market needs to capitulate before it can make the big move.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:25 | 5005978 Quus Ant
Quus Ant's picture

New markets emerging.  Stand clear.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:29 | 5005992 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

It tried to capitulate in 2013 but Asians lined up in droves to suck physical out of the West.  

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 02:20 | 5006559 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

that's a nice thought, but naive.

in a relatively unmanipulated market that might be the case.

but on a completely captured exchange like the comex, the price will do whatever the bullion banks want it to do.

i don't count on anything, i merely buy gold because i see it as a good value at this price, in the long term i expect to be vindicated.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:56 | 5006641 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

It already did. That's 2011 to 2013 dec. It's over. Now it's time for the rise. http://imgur.com/v7kuaQN

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:26 | 5005980 NoPension
NoPension's picture

God, I hope so! $500 sounds better. And $6 silver. Ah, one can dream.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:48 | 5006625 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

No 1100 coming.

Got it mapped out again.

http://imgur.com/vf4HAK3 http://imgur.com/v7kuaQN

My last gold price model worked for 2 years right up to 2012 April, and the one before it worked for a few months, always within 2 to 4 % of the price, every single day.

Period.

This one maps out to 2024. The more the Fed, ECB, etc., try to break the patterns the stronger they make them by adding the only kind of manipulation they understand.

The patterns aren't charting the price of gold, they're charting the MANIPULATION of the price of gold. Since it's the same manipulators every time, not random, not competing, the pattern never really changes.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:40 | 5006675 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Correct or not but Casey is in major denial on the manipulation scenario.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 04:06 | 5011781 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Could be. I stopped listening to Casey probably 1 or 2 years ago, can't remember even when.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:27 | 5005984 Gawd
Gawd's picture

I wrote this in an earlier ZH thread, but it's apropo here too.

I am really tired of hearing the "gold soars" line over and over and I'm someone who owns physical gold. It's just idotic. Gold soars, just to be slammed back down tomorrow the same amount that it "soared" today. $13.00 up and down a day is not soaring. It's dribbling. When it's going up $100.00 per ounce, day after day, for a month, then talk to me about soaring. Silver Doctors is even worse. Every prognosticator on SD has been wrong. Time and again, year after year, wrong.

Gold and Silver have been shit for the last two years and remains shit. Yes, I understand ALL the nuances of gold and silver. Stop the fucking gold soars line until it really soars. And, it will definently soar......Tomorrow, next week, next month, ad nauseam.  

 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:32 | 5005998 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Are you frustrated by used car ads too?

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:24 | 5006348 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

KWN runs a close second then if we are talking about used car ads. My goodness, if one ever needs a little comedic relief on a smashdown day, just head over to KWN for pixie dust and unicorns. You will feel all better again.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:45 | 5006621 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

ads?

I have adblock, noscript & now self-destructing cookies in Firefox.

If you're using chrome, internet exploder or some other nonsense and not blocking ads... you are an idiot. Dozens of postings on various zh articles have stated precisely what to install & what security, convenience it adds and in particular, how zero ad sites can get through. Zero.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 18:12 | 5008087 messymerry
messymerry's picture

I'm running a slightly different mix: 

Disconnect, Yesscript, AdBlock+, and a new one called Privacy Badger by EFF

Effing horseshit marketers and effing horseshit snoops!!!

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:33 | 5006347 honestann
honestann's picture

Gold and silver will soar... just after you sell your holdings.  That's how it always works, and the manipulators know the psychology that makes people give up and sell out.  The closer we get to folks throwing up their hands and selling their physical gold & silver, the closer we are to gold and silver soaring.

Of course, that "soaring" is "as measured in fiat, fake, false, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt units".  In normal times, when gold and silver soar, they don't increase in real value very much, they just protect you from the losses paper holders suffer.  However, this time is somewhat different, because the prices of gold and silver have been massively manipulated downward for some time.  And therefore, this time, when the dam breaks, holders of gold and silver will not only retain value, but also make handsome profits.  Real ones.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 00:01 | 5006415 Gawd
Gawd's picture

So let me pose a scenario. Gold is now $20,000 per ounce. I'm very happy, I bought in at $1300. But, due the economy dumping, gas is now $20.00 a gallon. I need gas so I take my ounce to the gold dealer and get $20,000 worth of hyper-inflated fiat. What have I really accomplished here? The cash I've exchanged for my ounce of gold is worth nothing. I've made a profit on my gold, but to what end? I still have a pile of paper to pay for hyper-inflated goods. I guess I just have more paper than I would have had without the gold? That's the entire plan?

Second, since the government just changed the money market regulations what's to stop them from putting a 90% tax on all gold sold to dealers? Please try not to tell me to go to the black market. I'm just a regular guy with some gold that has no connections to a mystical black market.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 00:56 | 5006481 hobopants
hobopants's picture
  1. Store gasoline and other goods, so you don't have to sell into a hyperinflationary environment but can wait until after the storm has passed.
  2. Measure gold in purchasing power, not dollars. Other assets will rise priced in dollars, but fall priced in gold.
  3. You are making the assumption that government will still exist to tax, despite the economic shitstorm. Expect revolt, civil war if things ever get that bad.
  4. Even if your unfounded hypothetical is true, gold is still the best buy out of all other investments. Having some purchasing power with gold is better than having none with the dollar.
Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:22 | 5006514 Gawd
Gawd's picture

Thanks...good points all. This is a whipsaw period. Have to keep the faith.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:18 | 5006505 honestann
honestann's picture

Gold is not magic, and that's a fact.  You have the following choice:  hold your savings in paper assets (a bank account probably being the worst) or real, physical, valuable goods (gold and silver being the easiest).

That's the basic choice.  When inflation takes off, each unit of fiat paper will be worth less and less as time passes.  When inflation takes off, each unit of gold or silver or pretty much any other real, physical, valuable good will retain its value, plus become worth more and more as more people realize they need to convert from fiat paper into physical gold, silver or other real, physical, valuable goods.

But not all real, physical, valuable goods will do as well as gold and silver, because whatever real, physical goods become most popular for saving will have a higher demand, which generates a higher value relative to alternatives.

The BIG difference is holding fiat paper versus real, physical, valuable goods.  If you worry that the predators-that-be will put insane taxes on gold [and/or silver], then convert your fiat into platinum, or palladium, or foreign real estate, or huge tanks of gasoline, or... productive machinery and supplies.  This last is always the best choice, because it is how you create an endless supply of real, physical, valuable goods for the indefinite future.  Just make sure you choose machinery and supplies that let you create goods that will be in demand during chaotic times.  If you do that, you do better than anyone (including gold savers), as long as you operate the machinery and continue to create goods.

You will never want to sell gold to dealers!  In fact, gold is not for selling, gold is for trading for other real, physical goods.  There is nothing illegal or immoral about trading one real, physical, valuable good for other real, physical, valuable goods.

At some point the so-called "black market" or "unofficial market" will become the ONLY [viable] market, because the predators-that-be are actively destroying all real markets.  Eventually you will have no choice but trade your real, physical goods for other real, physical goods... no matter what real, physical goods you decide to save.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:44 | 5006617 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

when gold is "20 thousand" per ounce it will be 1 millisecond before dollars aren't money anymore. You would a) stock up on gas like normal, not leaving your tank empty and also b) directly pay with silver and gold for food, gas, rent, mortgage, etc.

You don't profit on gold by trading for currency. You profit on gold by trading for goods when currency is nullified by market pressure, just like Zimbabwe dollars aren't currency anymore.

You don't go to the black market.

The black market becomes the only market and it comes to you. The dollar market gets shut down by popular demand.

If you truly believe this can't happen, that's like believing there's a Santa Claus. Santa = Easter Bunny = dollar stays as money.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 15:16 | 5007705 PrintemDano
PrintemDano's picture

Would you prefer having $1300 fiat with gas at $20 or $20,000 fiat with gas at $20?

The mythical black market will appear , it always does during troubled times, regular guys will know all about it.  Read some history Soviet, Chinese, Civil War, etc....black market WILL appear...to ALL.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 16:36 | 5007836 Jack4952
Jack4952's picture

No need to worry! Paper currencies and electronic credit are NOT about to disappear. The Federal Reserve, the U.S. military, the IMF and IBS ALREADY have several plans for a NEW currency. Let's call it the "NewDol".

People with current U.S. dollars (actually Federal Reserve Notes - FRNs) would exchange those dollars for the NewDol currency, at an exchange rate (just grabbing a number out of the air) of 100 old U.S. dollars for 1 NewDol.

Now, from your stash of gold coins worth your hypothetical $20,000 in old U.S. dollars per ounce of gold, you "cash in" a  gold coin ONLY when you need paper currency to make purchases. You would cash in (at private or public exchanges) your gold coin for the new paper currency we have called the "NewDol". Since the 1 oz coin would be worth $20,000 old U.S. dollars, its value in the new currency would be worth 200 "NewDols"  (20,000 / 100). 

Jim Rickards and other economists have already run "currency games" (like "war games", but dealing with money) for the U.S. Military, as well as other countries throughout the world. Rickards views this scenario as the one most likely to be adopted by the U.S. government following an extreme devaluation of the U.S. dollar. People holding gold and other precious metals would NOT have gained anything in value - they merely PRESERVED the value of their assets held as gold. The REAL LOSERS will be those who kept their assets as U.S. dollars, and thereby retained a mere 1% of their former wealth in U.S dollars.

I highly recommend the 2 books written by Jim Rickards, along with his numerous essays and video interviews.

P.S. Do NOT under-estimate the power of so-called "black markets". The "black-market" for gold in India overwhelmed the Indian government's attempts (using a 10% tax and import quotas) to reduce gold purchases by the people - so the tax and quotas were repealed.In U.S ciries (such as New York City) and states (New York) with very high taxes on tobacco products have resulted in a huge "black-market" in cigarettes imported fom low-tax states, resulting in hundreds of millions of dollars in lost tax revenue. Every weekend people from Massachusetts drive to New Hampshire to buy cigarettes and liquor to avoid the extremely high Massachusetts taxes, same for Virgina and Washington, D.C.

A "black-market" is simply a perjorative term created by government for a free market.

 

 

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 10:27 | 5006923 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

What 5005984 Gawd said.  Plus what too have said since April 2013 a number of times...

PM will stay CHANNEL BOUND in a SIDEWAYS MARKET until TPTB decide otherwise.  The gold shills (who make a living from selling/trading gold+silver) talk it up with each up tick and front-run the next smack down with options, which they then use to buy phyz.  There is nothing wrong with that, but puh-lease let's not pretend that this isn't what they're doing:  "pulling a GS".

In full disclosure, I'm over-allocated in PM (Au, Ag and Pt) in my portfolio -- with PM at 90% phyz and 10% paper speculation -- so all this gold/silver hype is just that: self-serving HYPE.  At this point I treat PM the same way Rickards and his clients treat precious art:  Nice to have, nice to look at, with NO intentions of selling.  Each dip is only an opportunity to BTFD, to add to the stash.  Period.

Now, about the demographics of India... good picking for mail order brides?  ;-)

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 15:44 | 5007763 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Thank you Gawd, for more-or-less bottom-ticking PMs.  You are correct.  

In times like these I keep a certain horizintal line in mind ... there is but one line to remember, gents ... the all-in cost of extraction and refinement.  The pigmen can take it below that line but not for long and there, at that horizon, is where you should be buying (a) with both hands (b) in cash (c) no margin (d) no hurries and (e) no worries.  All those factors must be in place.

We will I expect get a few more shots under that line as the pigmen fuck with the price ... be prepared.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:28 | 5005986 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Pretty charts!

I'm going to buy me some gold charts!

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:38 | 5006609 MeelionDollerBogus
Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:32 | 5006000 alexcojones
alexcojones's picture

Imagine this Grounhog Day scenario.

You write for King World News and every day, week, month, or year,

You have to come up with anew spin on an old tired story.

Gold will have the last laugh. Just not today.

BTFD 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:21 | 5006222 Magnum
Magnum's picture

LOL KingWorldNews is a joke and to think I used to look forward to every new podcast. I was a sucker. Gold is great insurance against a collapse in government but it may be awhile...

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:36 | 5006373 SgtShaftoe
SgtShaftoe's picture

"be right and sit tight" - Jesse Livermore

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:36 | 5006014 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Sangold takes Kerr and gets the big American Bonanza Copper mine in Arizona ta boot.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 20:42 | 5006034 Tsunami Wave
Tsunami Wave's picture

Off Topic: Brazil injects approx. 10 billon euros (30bn reales) into their banks this friday to help with lending, despite current inflation, wants lower rates...

 

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/2014/07/25/actualidad/1406308272_008...

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 21:13 | 5006091 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

As long as we talk about gold in terms of currency we will continue to miss the point of what gold is all about.

Attempts to keep gold and fiat in some kind of relationship or co-exisstence is futile in the long run. One of the two must die and it won't be gold.

Casey and the likes of him might be considered shills but at least they provide some form of organised counter to the bullshit bankers and politicians we readily listen to on a daly basis.

 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:18 | 5006220 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Regarding gold in China. I have seen reports on ZH about people lined up to buy gold in China because they can't get enough and everyone wants to exchange paper money for real gold.

OK in Hong Kong earlier this week I went to a few gold shops and the tradiitional merchants with handmade 24k rings and bracelets etc had very few customers.  I bought a pure gold ring about 4g weight for the melt price plus HK$120 (about $15 over melt).  

In Shanghai near that Yuyan Garden area was a big indoor gold mall.  I only visited the first floor of this gold mall but I think there are four floors.  All gold.  Must be a few tons in there alone.  And guess what, maybe we were there at the wrong time of day but the merchants were just talking among themselves because the place was empty. 

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:40 | 5006252 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

Advantage autodidacts

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autodidacticism

4g gold for what price?
plus $120 HK = $15 USD

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 00:07 | 5006427 Vuke
Vuke's picture

Something doesn't ring right here.  Four grams of gold approaches $200 in value

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 16:23 | 5007765 Jack4952
Jack4952's picture

What was the PURITY of the gold in the ring?

Assuming a gold price of $1300 per oz of 99.99% gold and given that 1 oz equals 28.35 grams, the calculations result in

45.85 dollars/ 1 gram  and thus 183.42 dollars/4 grams for a ring of 99.99% gold

 

But RINGS are almost NEVER made from 99.99% gold, but rather from 91.67% gold (22 kt) at the maximum - and usually less than that. (See two paragraphs below.) Otherwise the ring would be too soft and easily get bent or crushed.

I buy ONLY 1-oz (28.35 grams) Canadian Maple Leafs, which are 99.99% gold.

On the other hand, ALL  American Eagle gold coins are ONLY 91.67% gold (the equivalent of 22kt gold) with the rest of the metal in the coin being a mixture being copper and a trace of silver (which hardens the metal, which is why gold RINGS are usually 22kt maximum). The pre-1933 US gold coins were usually 90.0% gold and 10% copper, for durability due to their everyday usage; so do NOT let some coin shop dealer talk you into buying pre-1933 gold coins!

Many precious metal dealers will NOT tell you these facts. Indeed, some web sites (such as USAGOLD.com) sell gold Canadian Maple Leafs and American Eagle gold coins for the SAME PRICE !!!! So, if you chose the American Eagle gold coins, you just got SCREWED !!! (Of course, one pays a "premium" for coins, but at least you know they are REAL gold of specified purity.)

The modern day gold coins made of 99.99% pure gold include the Canadian gold Maple Leaf, Austria Philharmonic, and the new US BUFFALO 1 ounce gold coin.

Luckily, my dealer told me these facts years ago, which is why I have bought all my gold from him since then. (After each purchase I still have one or two sample coins ASSAYED for purity from that batch, however. I trust the dealer, but one can never be too careful! Gold coins can be faked almost as easily as gold bars.)

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 17:27 | 5007984 Magnum
Magnum's picture

Yes you are right, but in Hong Kong they are famous for pure 24k gold jewelry.

You should buy Austrian Philharmonic in addition to Canada maples. Quite nice.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:46 | 5006537 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I paid the price of the gold at current market, the melt price, plus an additional US$15. The $15 is labor charge to make the ring.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:53 | 5006404 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

China bought YTD 998 metric tonnes at the end of July 11 .  Who bought that then?  The SGE Is wrong and you are right?

https://www.bullionstar.com/article/chinese%20gold%20demand%20998

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:27 | 5006667 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Maybe both are right, stacking is ongoing for the BRICS attack on the castles.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 07:19 | 5006738 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Only problem is this guy said the exact same thing back in 2013 when gold demand was off the charts in China.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 05:44 | 5006698 Jano
Jano's picture

you buy jewelery?

I buy mints at the bank. Philharmoniker.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 17:30 | 5007991 Magnum
Magnum's picture

I like both.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 15:37 | 5007748 Hongcha
Hongcha's picture

Quite right Magnum.  There are a few Lao Wai around who actually know conditions and are not pissing their pants in excitement for a trend that does not exist.

That said - when the average-ly prosperous upper-middle class Chinaman ... not tycoons, net worth only a few million, most hard assets land or cash ... decides to buy, then it will be Katy-Bar-The-Door. They will come over in waves, with cash, and pick the U.S. clean.  They will haul up at coin shows and buy the room.  And Silver has an important place in Chinese history so they will buy up the silver bullion as well.

These days are coming.  Then bullion will no longer be available, period.  Of course the world may be so fucked we will have little to revel in ... but it's coming.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 22:57 | 5006288 fukidontknow
fukidontknow's picture

 

 

"When we are victorious on a world scale I think we shall use gold for the purpose of building public lavatories in the streets of some of the largest cities of the world."

-Lenin

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:23 | 5006664 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

Now he is mummified in Red Square under nitrogen and if he could see around the corner when the gold was flowing, his serfs were lined up 3 blocks for meager food rations.

The universities are full of the idiots.

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:09 | 5006318 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Ill outlast you, I make it a point to be unsinkable, you will hate the yellow metal. You will take losses but then again when hasn't been life been like that. It's a constant, like gravity or envious bs

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5Spr1N6Hy4&sns=em

Fri, 07/25/2014 - 23:44 | 5006385 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

My ex wife is Indian.  I know the culture.  They will NEVER stop wanting to own gold.  A corrupt government can not stop them.  Their demand is like waves continuously pounding on a sea wall.  They will never stop.  Gold will always have value and lots of it.  If you bet against it you are a fool.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 04:17 | 5006660 Farqued Up
Farqued Up's picture

I believe your basic premise but there have to be better examples than India, I hope. Their love of gold hasn't lifted them out of squalor and I refuse to succumb to the fiat Death Star as savior.

Oh well, I'll just keep stacking as my only real alternative. I've been stacking real estate along with PMs but then it occurred to me what had happened in Cuba. Dirt ain't portable and when the clan loses grip there I figure the dirt will go to a Wally World or a McTurd and will not revert to it's deeded owners.

At about 60 to 1, silver isn't all that portable either. Bitcoin is over my head but my email is screwed because my Mac Mavericks can't choke down Gmail without some geek help. I'd fill my britches if I got panicky with electronic money, then total vapor lock.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:52 | 5006540 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

All very snazzy and flashy. But has ZH helped me make any money in gold? Ahem.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/gold-dreamers-face-hars...

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 02:31 | 5006571 stacking12321
stacking12321's picture

i'll give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you're not a paid bankster troll posting pointless bloomberg articles.

gold is not for making money, gold *IS* money, it's a store of wealth.

sometimes return OF your investment is more important than the return ON your investment, and gold maintains purchasing power over the long run.

if you prefer to gamble your $ at a casino (such as stock market, etc), go for it, no one's stopping you.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:51 | 5006541 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

All very snazzy and flashy. But has ZH helped me make any money in gold? Ahem.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/gold-dreamers-face-hars...

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 01:51 | 5006542 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

All very snazzy and flashy. But has ZH helped me make any money in gold? Ahem.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-16/gold-dreamers-face-hars...

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:35 | 5006607 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

http://imgur.com/vf4HAK3 http://imgur.com/v7kuaQN

Gold IS money.

You don't make gold, you don't make money.

You buy gold & lower prices mean more gold until no one's willing to sell at that price.

Paper is not money.

Electrons are not money.

If you can't understand that, there's no helping you.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 03:56 | 5006640 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

You gotta be quick to BTFD lately.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 08:25 | 5006792 Racer
Racer's picture

The thing about gold is that it is manipulated, supply and demand have nothing to do with the price like the rest of the 'markets' since the Frauderal Reserved took CONtrol

But I much rather have some beautiful gold than toilet paper $

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 09:15 | 5006843 localspaced
localspaced's picture

Serious message delivered with frivolous cartoon design. Iron Bullshit Dome activated...

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 09:15 | 5006845 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Nothing wrong with owning gold - just buy it at a good price.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/spot-gold-weekly-stalls-downside-week/

 

Weekly doesn't show much upside and the rise of the USD should drive gold lower.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 10:26 | 5006928 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

About those Indian demographics...

Looks like we can be bullish on having plenty of (cherry) picking for attractive young women to greet, meat and marry:  Young, slim, not used to US materialism.  Probably Tantra savvy too.  Doesn't apply to me though, unless I "go Mormon"... which the Mrs won't allow.  ;-)

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 10:54 | 5007013 JD59
JD59's picture

I'm long PHYS & NGD. NGD is undervalued, and the industry leader in low cost production.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 10:58 | 5007025 JD59
JD59's picture

Buy physical, take delivery and keep stacking. Add a little brass & lead to your holdings.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 12:29 | 5007263 Lionhearted
Lionhearted's picture

Love these prophets and their crystal balls. If you really knew what the future held why the hell would you tell anyone? I know what the winning lottery ticket is (12,15,22,35,40) Buy the same ticket as me. When ever you hear someone who claims to know the future RUN.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 13:21 | 5007376 Obama LaForge
Obama LaForge's picture

Wait, I thought China was going to crash, and that was also going to also lead to gold going up. Is there no scenario in which gold goes down?

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 13:22 | 5007380 Clesthenes
Clesthenes's picture

Yes, these are interesting facts; but you overlook several major factors that influence, or will influence, the gold price.

Such as "the gold carry trade", "cash equivalents" used by corporations and wealthy individuals to protect their bank accounts.  That is, how are Mortgage Backed Securities related to this matter? (http://redressone.wordpress.com/what-price/)

Don't forget that foreign corporations also use MBS as "cash equivalents" to protect their "cash" from bank failures.

Then there are the trillions of dollars of US Treasuries held by foreign central banks that would usually be settled by gold at Fort Knox; which may or may not be there - see "gold carry trade".

Examine my findings... and, well, it gets kind of dizzy.

 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 14:01 | 5007500 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

One major fly in this ointment, Governments.

If gold/silver start shooting up it will be due to some kind of currency collapse. They will not just stand by and let gold holders make a fortune. They will:

- 'liberate' gold held by their citizens, starting with the easy targets, gold vaults. Then, with PM dealer customer lists in their hands they will hit customers homes with SWAT teams carrying metal detectors.

- nationalise all PM companies in their jurisdiction and the shares of those outside it,

- impose heavy capital gains taxes on PM sales,

- make it illegal to trade in gold unless it is a sale to an authorised bank,

After this only criminals and TPTB will be able to trade PMs.

If this were to happen the skill will be to get out at a point before all this shit hits the fan, or plan to somehow get it somewhere that has not imposed these rules or keep it 40 years. Good luck.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 14:34 | 5007592 Jack4952
Jack4952's picture

Tyler,

WHY did you post this?

Sorry, but it is NOT a news article. It is an ADVERTISEMENT for GoldCorp !!!!

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 16:57 | 5007871 exartizo
exartizo's picture

good... except for the fact that he missed arguably the only important determinants of the price of gold going forward for at least the next 7 years... war and increasing geopolitical instability.

cute charts though.

oh, and yeah, I agree with Jack above. This is a dumbass useless thing to write.

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 19:20 | 5008255 Mi Naem
Mi Naem's picture

The really shocking news here is that GoldCorp projects an increase in the price of gold. 

Stunning.  Absolutely stunning. 

Sat, 07/26/2014 - 20:46 | 5008415 esum
esum's picture

first we take your guns... then we take your gold/bank account/financial assets... the we take your self-respect...the we take your life... but you will make a good organ donor, lampshade (stop with the tatoos), bar of soap and calcium supplement, and thanks for the gold fillings...ussa recycles..... so greeeen 

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