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Gary Shilling: "Q2 GDP Was Closer To 1% Than To 3%. It Could Even Be A Negative Number"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

This week, in the aftermath of the Q1 -2.9% GDP disaster, the biggest "non-recessionary" drop in 67 years which was blamed on harsh weather (because there have never been harsh winters in the past 67 years), we get the first glimpse of what Q2 GDP was in the US economy. It is expected to print just shy of 3%. However, one person disagrees: Gary Shilling believes that not only will Q2 GDP be closer to 1% than to 3%, there is a fairly good chance it could be negative, which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.

Shilling's take:

Special Report: No Spring Thaw

The consensus of economists looks for second quarter real GDP growth, which will be released July 30, of 3% vs. the first quarter at annual rates. It believes the 2.9% drop in the first quarter was cold weather-driven, and a rebound in the second quarter is the prelude to 3%-plus growth in the second half of the year. As in the last several years, the herd is likely to be disappointed.

Consumer spending is 69% of GDP and it barely grew in the quarter. According to monthly data, real consumer spending fell 0.2% in April and 0.1% in May. June’s numbers aren’t released yet, but based on the correlation with retail sales, which are available for June, real consumer outlays rose just 0.1%. The jump in March from weak January and February gave consumer spending a higher starting point for the second quarter so we believe it rose 1.3% from the first quarter.

With the ongoing business cost-cutting and job growth focused on hamburger flippers, hotel desk clerks and other lowpaid jobs, real wage growth to support consumer spending has been absent. Emphasis has also been on lower-paid part-time jobs. In June, they rose 1.1 million while full-timer positions dropped 708,000.

Elsewhere, real federal as well as state and local spending probably continued their declining trends. Plant and equipment spending didn’t help much. Volatile durable goods shipments rose just 0.5% in the second quarter from the first at annual rates, and that’s before reductions for inflation.

Residential construction was probably weak in the second quarter following declines in the fourth and first quarters. The earlier recovery in housing was driven by rentals, not new homeowners who are suppressed by uncertain jobs, low credit scores, the lack of 20% downpayments, huge student loan debts and the knowledge that house prices can and did fall by one-third. New home sales, the sequel to recent new building, slid 8.1% in June from May and were  off 3% in the second quarter from the first.

After declines in April and May in total private residential and nonresidential construction, June’s numbers, yet to be reported, would have to be the highest this year to keep the second quarter total from falling from the first quarter, before inflation reductions.

Net exports, the difference between U.S. exports and imports, were weak in April and May. Even with a $2 billion improvement in June, the quarterly total would knock $22 billion, or 0.5 percentage points, off annual real GDP in the second quarter. Note that the $70 billion drop in the first quarter cut real GDP by 1.5 percentage points.

The big unknown, as usual, is inventory investment. Since it’s the difference between sales and production, it’s highly volatile and notoriously subject to revisions. But barring a big jump in inventories, second quarter real GDP growth was probably a lot closer to 1% than 3%. It could even be a negative number.

A low second quarter real GDP number will kill the conviction that the first quarter drop was only an anomaly and it will spawn agonizing reappraisals for the rest of the year. It could put the Fed on hold at least into 2016 and be great for Treasury bonds. But for stocks, look out below!

 

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Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:16 | 5010492 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

No way will the first number be below 2%.

Smoke and mirrors must be maintained at all costs.

Markets will rejoice because it is not negative.

It will be adjusted to negative later, but by then that will be 'old news'. 

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:19 | 5010501 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Can we finally be adults and admit this is a depression?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:22 | 5010515 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

Gov't manipulated numbers...

Reading goat entrails would be more accurate!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:34 | 5010556 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

And edible too.

Loves my chitlings.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:42 | 5010563 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

TWO consecutive negative quarters is the official definition of a recession.

So if initial Q2 GDP prints -1.0% they must revise Q1 GDP down from -2.9 to -4.0% in order to make official Q2 GDP +0.1% and shazzam... no recession!

See how the magic works?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:45 | 5010597 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Yeah that definition always struck me as a bit self-serving for the govt (not that that should be a surprise).  You can have 50% contraction in one quarter followed by zero growth in the next and not be in a recession.  It really should be defined as negative growth measured over a six month period.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:33 | 5010738 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

anyone who says America is not currently in recession is engaging in a little (Baltic) dry humour

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:25 | 5010522 max2205
max2205's picture

That would be so awesomely bullish.....2,500 in weeks

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:39 | 5010754 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Bloomberg's economic calendar has consensus at 3.1%.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:17 | 5011020 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

I believe you misspelled it. That should read “Bloomturd”. ;-)

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:26 | 5010535 neidermeyer
neidermeyer's picture

Real growth is dead , we just had the "actual wealth" story this week with I think a 43% drop since president Hussein... real estate everywhere is listed but not selling ,, nobody can qualify or has the expectation that they can maintain making the payments ...

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:22 | 5011308 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

True. Real estate is cratering.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 02:43 | 5011711 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

You musn't call it a  Depression !

   — that would depress people —

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:32 | 5010552 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Are you kiding me never will admit that untill the end thats a depression in this country

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:24 | 5011306 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

A conversation I can only dream about:

To bad Mr. President, I'm in charge now not you. Now slide your neck under the big shiny sharp blade. Yes, like that, very good. Now, if you tell me the truth about 2nd quarter GDP, that big shiny blade will stay where it is and you are out golfing again within the hour.

OK, OK, I lied. GDP was actually negative 10% or something like that. We are not really sure. Funny thing is we had been fucking around with the numbers for so long we have no clue at this point.

Thank you Mr. President for coming clean on this matter.

Great, now let me go like you promised.

No :)

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:35 | 5010560 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Not from this Government....

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:38 | 5010576 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

No we cannot as the masses do not know what GDP is and means. 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:50 | 5011233 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

GDP?

 

Isn't that one of those cool drugs?

(like LSD, PCP or GHB)

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:49 | 5010601 edotabin
edotabin's picture

"Can we finally be adults and admit this is a depression?"

We can, they can't...... but we don't count.

They offshored everything and there's nothing left. What is left is highly automated so there was no other logical conclusion.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:07 | 5010650 ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Say whaaaaaaa?

Dis be de summer of recovery.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 01:23 | 5011641 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Try some of dese green shoots my brother, guranteed kind, make you think the economies going gangbusters.

My man Obama turned me on to dese, he smokes em hisself. gotta em from bernanke - best skunk in da federal reserve. keeps it in his own private vault he does.

One puff and your GDP be trippin...and shit.

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:21 | 5010686 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

It is NOT a depression. It is a crime. In broad daylight ... taking from those who have nothing or little (debt) and shovelling it to those at the top!

(More than 1/2 of if comes from the government anyway, and the other half from Fed.)

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:26 | 5011562 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Nuttin' but green fo ya.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 09:11 | 5012214 caShOnlY
caShOnlY's picture

Can we finally be adults and admit this is a depression?

They can't admit a depression because that is the nuclear bomb of bad news and would send the markets soaring so high so fast they would lose control.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:20 | 5010503 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Continual future hockey stick projections... all the way down.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:22 | 5010511 exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

What I find amusing is that despite the massive massaging of numbers that comprise official data, this is the best fudging we can get.  You'd think for trillions Uncle Sam squanders we'd have invented new forms of math or something to show how rosy fine everything is.  Even con job quality is going down the tubes these days.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 19:14 | 5010852 whyami
whyami's picture

They did a great job on fudging the negative numbers and can't hide them further. You have to give them some credit on that.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:09 | 5011279 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Can't we just erase that negative sign? No sir we can't. Oh Shut the fuck up already and just get it done. I'm getting ready to tee off damnit!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:00 | 5011130 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

I think the con job quality is sloppy because the boat is swamping and TPTB are overwhelmed pumping out emergency bullshit.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:27 | 5011564 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That or we are far enough along that they don't feel the need to try as hard anymore.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:59 | 5010817 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The number 1 goal is to keep stocks going higher.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:06 | 5011269 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

IMHO I believe that WAS the goal. Now it's maintain reserve currency status no matter how painful for depositors.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 07:10 | 5011957 laomei
laomei's picture

I'm guessing something like 1.5% at a bare minimum, later revised down to negative so the news can be that the economy entered into recession and talk about it in past tense, rather than in present tense.  In past tense, it can be mentioned as a quip and ignored, in present... that's a problem.  The Fed is basically all strung out and has no more tricks remaining, all stops are out and the only ones possibly left remaining were rather damaging ones which they have been struggling to undo.  The levitation at this point is all based on bullshit to keep the headlines looking good as they try to figure out a solution other than letting it all collapse.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:17 | 5010494 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

"But for stocks, look out below!"

More like standby for BTATFH

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:18 | 5010499 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

No shit, Sherlock.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:20 | 5010506 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Q2 GDP will be whatever bullshit number they want it to be; the economic metrics train left the reality track a loooong time ago.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:37 | 5010565 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

furthermor, whatever number they print is will cause the market to go sharply higher and the number will be quietly revised down at a later date.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:21 | 5010510 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

The idea that the central bank will allow stocks to fall is crazy.

The fed is already printing money essentially to buy out the equity markets.

The rest of the equity gains are from buy backs as ceos use corrporate cash reserves to fluff the value of their personal shares ahead of dumps

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:41 | 5010583 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

The buybacks are mainly driven by corporations having nothing to do with the cash they're sitting on.  The IP and regulatory landscapes are just too hostile to investing in any actual wealth-creating business.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:04 | 5010654 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Fox buying Time Warner. Rumors of an LBO of Coke. How interest rates can plunge given so much liquidity and carry is beyond me. I can't see what more the "growth authorities" could have done.

Sounds like a structural issue now.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:33 | 5011573 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Let's rise up and confiscate, for example, all stocks and bonds.  Those can be dispersed on a per capita basis - everyone gets some.  The criminals lose all and leave, go to prison, get death sentences that are carried out.  Everyone else would have interest (not really skin) in the game and the market would suddenly play itself out so that companies like Twitter either sink or learn to swim (call that a sell).  Actaully, I'd bet the masses would sell off straight away and tank it all.  There just is no winning.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:57 | 5010633 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

Not true, the Fed can effect the trend but can't prevent a crash. People can sell and make the market crash in a matter a minutes, the Fed is tapering and can not change policy to the point to stop a stampede overnight. I have no doubt that they could get the market headed north again, but that's the whole point of several of these ZH articles, if they do what are the repercussions? There are only about 11 trillion dollars, the three trill the Fed has pumped into the markets has been enough to push stocks, bonds, and real-estate to or close to all time highs, and debt to over 60 trillion. Imagine if the fed printed enough to jumpstart a crashing stock market, maintain real-estate prices and make the federal govt appear solvent. It will cause hyperinflation and they know it. They are walking a tightrope between Everest and K2, fall to the left and massive deflation, right and hyperinflation. I think inflation is the most politically expedient but I think a fall to the left is possible too. I do think they have a plan for a monetary shift but I won't get into that now.

You assume the fed can manipulate markets forever, but this is simply not the case, even thought it would appear to be true based on recent memory, but manipulation in financial markets always fails and theirs is already showing cracks.

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:58 | 5010636 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

Not true, the Fed can effect the trend but can't prevent a crash. People can sell and make the market crash in a matter a minutes, the Fed is tapering and can not change policy to the point to stop a stampede overnight. I have no doubt that they could get the market headed north again, but that's the whole point of several of these ZH articles, if they do what are the repercussions? There are only about 11 trillion dollars, the three trill the Fed has pumped into the markets has been enough to push stocks, bonds, and real-estate to or close to all time highs, and debt to over 60 trillion. Imagine if the fed printed enough to jumpstart a crashing stock market, maintain real-estate prices and make the federal govt appear solvent. It will cause hyperinflation and they know it. They are walking a tightrope between Everest and K2, fall to the left and massive deflation, right and hyperinflation. I think inflation is the most politically expedient but I think a fall to the left is possible too. I do think they have a plan for a monetary shift but I won't get into that now.
You assume the fed can manipulate markets forever, but this is simply not the case, even thought it would appear to be true based on recent memory, but manipulation in financial markets always fails and theirs is already showing cracks.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:57 | 5010637 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

Not true, the Fed can effect the trend but can't prevent a crash. People can sell and make the market crash in a matter a minutes, the Fed is tapering and can not change policy to the point to stop a stampede overnight. I have no doubt that they could get the market headed north again, but that's the whole point of several of these ZH articles, if they do what are the repercussions? There are only about 11 trillion dollars, the three trill the Fed has pumped into the markets has been enough to push stocks, bonds, and real-estate to or close to all time highs, and debt to over 60 trillion. Imagine if the fed printed enough to jumpstart a crashing stock market, maintain real-estate prices and make the federal govt appear solvent. It will cause hyperinflation and they know it. They are walking a tightrope between Everest and K2, fall to the left and massive deflation, right and hyperinflation. I think inflation is the most politically expedient but I think a fall to the left is possible too. I do think they have a plan for a monetary shift but I won't get into that now.
You assume the fed can manipulate markets forever, but this is simply not the case, even thought it would appear to be true based on recent memory, but manipulation in financial markets always fails and theirs is already showing cracks.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:35 | 5011578 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

I don't believe anyone who says things less than four times.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 07:40 | 5011993 NinjaMonkeyFish
NinjaMonkeyFish's picture

Ummm ... central banks around our modestly insane little planet recently admitted to investing 29 trillion USD in market securities, including equities:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-15/cluster-central-banks-have-secretly-invested-29-trillion-market

 

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 08:30 | 5012081 bwh1214
bwh1214's picture

No and no, not even close. I love zerohedge but not all of the authors are created equal. You are a parrot and are not doing what you should be responsible enough to do, due diligence.

The story you sited incorrectly makes you think central banks invested 29.1 trill into equity markets when if you  would read the article they were citing to make up that “fact” they would find this.

The report, seen by the Financial Times, identifies $29.1tn in market investments, including gold, held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries.

This does not say anything about central banks though it may include some.  This is just stating the market investments of the 400 public sector institutions.  This, I’m sure, includes for the most part, sovereign wealth funds and public pensions, and it evens says that the holdings include gold.  So this makes perfect sense, heck the SS trust fund its self holds a few trillion in assets at current market rates (albeit worthless ones in my opinion). 

You know what if you are that ill-informed I’m not going to go on any further.  Be a little more careful what you read on the internet for god sakes.  I’m sure the Zero hedge contributors would say the same.

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:59 | 5011256 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

I agree with you that is what they have done but IMHO I believe they are more worried now about protecting the dollar and maintaining reserve status. Tons of global pressure on the Fed including challenge from BRICS. Taper will finish and when TSHTF it's gonna be bail ins impacting, for the most part, high dollar accounts (at least initially). This time it actually will be different.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:24 | 5010524 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Given that true inflation is most likely at least 10% YOY, it is unlikely that the GDP for this entire year will be positive.  HMMM.  How are they going to spin this one?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:32 | 5010550 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Its the polar vortex in july our coolest ever in oklahoma

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:44 | 5011077 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Stop grilling burgers and driving if you don't like it. or is it more beef and driving... weather experts out there? we need answers fast

I love needling my austin hippie friend and watching him dance the dance.

Beautiful weather here now

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:37 | 5011583 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Print GDP at .2.1 and Inflation at 2.05.  Win-Win.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:26 | 5010530 fzrkid
fzrkid's picture

Nothing significant here. The market will continue to rise as the FED continues to print. BTFATH until September 2016.

 

I would like the group to put together a list of equities that would make great 'short' candidates when BTFATH become DTBAFAYC

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:39 | 5011586 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Equities A-Z, 0-9.  There, you have your list.  Of course, don't count on being paid anything of value at the end of that trade.  The ship is going to sink but you've just won a tour of the bridge!  Yay you!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:29 | 5010536 ekm1
ekm1's picture

At best, just at best, USA can manage a minus 4% GDP growth

 

China is at best minus 8%

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:53 | 5011241 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Correct. It's all a big fucking joke. Growth? No way. Take a step back and look at the fucking situation. We have been exporting jobs for over 30 years and running massive trade deficits. The only thing that has grown is government liabilities which has been covering the shortfall. Take away all the debt in the public sector and the private sector is a shell of itself. And btw they didn't just change how inflation is calculated to fuck over SS recipients. With true inflation figures as they were calculated back in the 70's we have been in decline for a long time.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:59 | 5010540 joego1
joego1's picture

U.S. is closed for business

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:29 | 5010544 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

This whole pozy sceme wont stop untill the American people wake up and to tell you from the real world upper middle class, which dosnt say much rite now, everyone more concerned about thier fucked up kinds and wont deal with the truth about how fucked up our kids our. They have suceeded in ruining our youth mine 17 and what a fuck up and said to me the American dream is dead! So enjoy what you have and the time you have and when the shit hits the fan its over our kids are stupid and m of the last educated generation 46 yrs old my wife 38 and unbelievable!!!!!!!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:35 | 5010557 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

I'm going to go ahead and assume that English isn't your first language.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:39 | 5010574 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

My typing just sucks

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:12 | 5010678 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Your good man, we get it. They've destroyed the class room. But you can also say we voted for our demise. I teach my kids, school is just a place to go for them nothing more. Schools don't teach and the teachers, the majority, are complete moonbat morons.

That's my kid talking

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:39 | 5010752 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

They all work together. I didnt realize I was going to be graded in a chat room but I thank you for the forgiveness in my lack of caring what the typing looked like. My only language is English and I can only hope that my caring how this comes across shows I am not ignorant and thanks again. May god save our children!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:10 | 5011139 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

What the hell are you talking about? Who destroyed the classroom? Students today are required to perform at much higher academic levels than anytime in our history. Academic performance among all subgroups are continually rising and the latest TIMSS assessment has US forth graders scoring at the same level as forth graders from Finland. African American students today are scoring 20 points higher in reading than white students did twenty years ago according to the latest NAEP results.

I know, I know. The propaganda spewed by the corporate school reformers that many rubes have swallowed hook, line and sinker claim public schools are failing miserably. It's pure bullshit propagated by corporate interests who want to graft public monies, and they have been very successful in this endeavor.

I challenge anyone claiming public schools are failing to walk down to their local elementary, middle or high school and volunteer. Find out what is really happening in today's public schools. Please don't focus on bullshit like what students are wearing, how they talk or how often they are on their electronic devices. Pay attention to the curriculum, the expected outcomes and the local assessments. I promise that this isn't your kindergarten classroom.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:53 | 5011605 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

In my middle class commuter town the school is above average.  The state is above average.  The kids, can't stand most of them.  They can't count.  They don't know basic manners.  They don't/won't read.  They know it is all fucked up and they just don't care.  On top of all that, they dress horribly even though they have multiple classes on FASHION at the high school level. 

.gov claims we have 99% literacy in this country.  That just is not true.  All that other bs you spouted is just more .gov lies.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 08:30 | 5012082 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

Show me the fucking data to prove your point! No bullshit, no seeing eye test. Data! Also, get down to your local public school and volunteer. Your radio has not been honest with you.

The bullshit diatribe you posted has been said against every generation of youth since the beginning of human history, yet here we still are.

Don't worry Replacement, these kids will provide you with Social Security and Medicare. They will take care of you.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 02:42 | 5011708 JoJoJo
JoJoJo's picture

Walking around or near any of our big Dem city schools is too dangerous.Maybe some suburban schools are better but expect inner city school students to be functionally illiterate. International testing annually proves that American students are waaaay behind.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 08:16 | 5012049 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

No Jo! International testing proves the exact opposite. Again, our fourth grade students had the same achievement level as Finnish students on the latest math TIMSS (International test). Many people think Finland has the best public education system in the world and we are equal to them even with our difficult social and economic issues.

American students are never way behind and if you disaggregate the data, which international tests don't do, our students above the poverty line score the highest in the world. We do have very challenging social and economic issues in our inner cities and those need to be addressed. Blaming public education is analogous to blaming a fire department because an arsonist is starting raging fires all throughout a city.

The meme that public schools are failing is pure grade A bullshit.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 06:47 | 5011938 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Agree there. You can always tell the kids from the loving homes, even of they are not the ones with the highest GPAs. They will do fine in life.

Many charter schools in Ohio are a fucking mess, criminal if you ask me. I wouldn't send my kids to them.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:57 | 5010629 oudinot
oudinot's picture

It probably wasn't his first language, and even if it was I got what he was saying and related to his plight, like mine-see my subsequent post.

There are more and more smart people-thanks to our devolving educational system-that have a hard time to express themselves in writing.  It  does not make their experience any less valuable.

Your comment on his post  had absolutely no class.

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:52 | 5011106 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

I like boss' comments as a fellow concerned neighbor, but this is fight club and that post was a little on the fly rough.

Being from OK, he can handle it.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:50 | 5010606 oudinot
oudinot's picture

I got one kid 23, a real treasure , and one kid 16,he's   trouble, I'm 52, wife 47 .  But the 'bad' one ain't much different than the majority of peers.

A bad generational havest, I guess.  We can only blame ourselves......

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:21 | 5010698 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Funny I always say to my wife about my 21 year old daughter " was it the vaccines? Or the water? "

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:43 | 5011595 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

How YOUR kid behaves and what they know has been YOUR responsibility all along.  If you are blaming the schools you still have some waking up to do.  I know, it is hard.  We all share the blame in some way or other, acknowledged or not.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:30 | 5010546 lawton
lawton's picture

If it wasn't fudged it will be negative again in Q2 looking at other factors. My guess is they will release a number way too positive again and if its under 1.5% initially then their final manipulated GDP number will be negative a few months later.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:38 | 5010567 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

The final revision for Q2 comes out after the November elections, correct?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:35 | 5010558 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

Even if the Q2 GDP growth is close to 2.9%, it's still going to be slightly negative for the first half of the year.  We lost 2.9% of a the beginning of the year GDP, which is more than 2.9% of the smaller post-Q1 GDP.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:12 | 5010677 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

Adding Stupidity would add 74% to GDP

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:38 | 5010569 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Adding Hookers and Blow might help the GDP to be positive. 

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:19 | 5010695 Effrafax of Wug
Effrafax of Wug's picture

Legalize it

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:37 | 5010571 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Election year.

Say no more.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 17:48 | 5010609 Tulpa
Tulpa's picture

I'm bullish on whatever company makes the hard drives that the BLS and BEA use for their mail servers.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:09 | 5010668 billbengen
billbengen's picture

"Two quarters of negative GDP" has never been the official definition of a recession; certainly not according to the NBER, which officially determines past recessions. The NBER evaluates four broad measures of economic performance- Production, Employment, Incomes, and Sales- to determine recessionary conditions. Look it up on their website:

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

A recession can occur with only one quarter of negative GDP growth,

 

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:30 | 5010727 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Q2 down the shitter in 3, 2, 1. . . flush. You gotta love a country who's commander in chief's main plan of action is to replace the voters with new voters that will vote the way he wants them to in upcoming elections.

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:42 | 5011220 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

All voter registration, voting terminals and poling stations will soon be converted to Spanish...only!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:31 | 5010732 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

the shell game continues

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:43 | 5010762 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

0% annualized GDP in Q2 means that Q2 grew 3% - LMFAO!!!!

 

retail numbers alone for all three months in Q2 were shit.

 

1% means a 4% swing - sure, whatever.

 

POMO shrinking, no more bonds for REPO - I'd say we're about done here.  Crash helmets on people!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:56 | 5010808 stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

fuck it dude, let's go bowling.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 18:59 | 5010814 Cattender
Cattender's picture

what is the BIG Deal about GDP anyway? these Numbers are a bunch of BS... right? look around you... do you SEE anything that makes you believe we are getting into a Stronger Economic Recovery? i have to say no.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:47 | 5011094 messystateofaffairs
messystateofaffairs's picture

GDP is BS what with govt. activity measured in it and all. All I know is people are working harder to get poorer.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:15 | 5011013 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Blame it on the drought in CA, moar weather-related excuses.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:34 | 5011057 q99x2
q99x2's picture

There you have it. Everything implodes if in reality it is not 2%. Game over bitchez.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:35 | 5011063 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Winston Smith said 3%, therefore 3% it is.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:42 | 5011074 Lostinfortwalton
Lostinfortwalton's picture

There must be a growing and strong underground economy. Several small stores in my hometown are not charging taxes or giving receipts for cash purchases. Who in their right mind would want to pay taxes to fund the F-35 epic boondoggle, send Obama to Hawaii and Marthas Vineyard every time you turn around, or help build up more domestic SWAT teams?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:56 | 5011114 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Thanks for Giving the NSA and the IRS that info.. you can Kiss your small town economy good bye..  unless of course it is so small, they know absolutely everybody... :)

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:56 | 5011116 SweetDoug
SweetDoug's picture

'

'

'

What would be more shocking to those that aren't the "low information finance/economist/voter type" would be if it was negative and they printed it.

 

My call? They'd just ignore the number, pay lip-service to it, tell us it's all the weather's fault and it'll be fine. Green shoot!

 

That would be the real tellm, as it would be a test for them, for if they were to get away with this sleight-of-hand, then anything is possible and the public is truly asleep.

 

•?•
V-V

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 20:59 | 5011123 kenny500c
kenny500c's picture

This would be good for stocks - more money creation and bad for bonds for the same reason.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:36 | 5011200 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

No more printing. Bail ins coming...soon! :)

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:34 | 5011195 FoodStampPrez
FoodStampPrez's picture

Try being me. Divorced, 2 kids. Make 150k pretax. Self employed, so there goes 20k in SE tax, plus 25k in Fed tax since I don't have any writeoffs (lost my house due to foreclosure thanks to divorce). That leaves me with 105k. State tax rate is 7%, leaves me with 98k. Child support is 2400 per month in AFTER tax dollars, leaving me with 68k. Health and dental insurance are 900 a month, leaves me with 58k. Rent is 2k per month since my credit is fucked, had to pre-pay 4 months worth. That leaves me with 34k. Car insurance, renter's insurance, life insurance, there goes another 3k. Down to 31k. Utilities are roughly 500 a month - no cable, internet only, cheapest phone plan possible.  Down to 25k. Max contribution to IRA, down to 19k. Putting 500 a month in kid's college accounts, down to 13k. Food, gas, tolls, car maintenance, and occasional daycare for the kids are another $1k per month. 

That is the AMERICA story of how a guy who works his ass off and makes 150k a year lives off of $1,000 per YEAR in discretionary income.

 

FORWARD!

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:32 | 5011332 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I feel your pain.

Went through a divorce 11 years ago.

The system loves to milk Dad's trying to be responsible.

Cut the IRA and kid's college accounts out - you are being too responsible.

.gov will steal your IRA, and the kids should just take out a loan or have Mom pay for it since she is getting $2,400/month to fuck someone else and not give you equal time with your children.

Why pay to not see your children?  Never understood that.  Fuck the system.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 06:37 | 5011930 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

Self employed? Are you able to move, because you sure are paying a lot more for your stuff than I am here in my little town.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 21:50 | 5011238 Little Boomer
Little Boomer's picture

The people's collectivist media will not be reporting the Obamacare Recession.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:28 | 5011325 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Depression, but you are correct.

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:28 | 5011326 dolbiere
dolbiere's picture

17 trillion national debt balanced out with a 17 trillion gross domestic product. is there any doubt about what the problem is?

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 22:46 | 5011358 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

The term "the new normal" has not been used much as of late, but going forward it may be about to return. Many investors and the public at large may be about to realize that central banks can only do so much through printing money and lowering interest rates. Both these actions carry with them some very strong and nasty side effects.

Markets have become very distorted as money has flowed into risky assets in search of higher yields. It could be we are about to see the markets morph into a "realizing market", one that grinds slowly downward. Another possibility is that at some point the wisdom of buying every pullback changes and the market simply drops like a stone. More on what the future might hold in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2013/06/realistic-expectations-for-econom...

 

Sun, 07/27/2014 - 23:28 | 5011465 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

I love the "weather" BS.  What was this, the 4 th coldest winter on record?  So, inthe coldest winter on record GDP was what -10%?   What a bunch of horsehit.

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 00:15 | 5011546 presidentsarkozy
presidentsarkozy's picture

IF THE PRINT IS IN REALITY A MINUS FOR Q2 THEY WILL JUST FALSIFY IT INTO A PLUS ....

SIMPLES--AS ALEXANDER THE MEERKAT WOULD SAY !!!

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 01:35 | 5011659 JoJoJo
JoJoJo's picture

Gary Schilling was constantly lampooned by Kudlow and Steve Liesman on the Kudlow show. Kudlow is gone. Schilling is still around but Liesman is still preaching "What me worry?"  Schilling is right  but the Krugmans are too deep into it come clean

Mon, 07/28/2014 - 03:54 | 5011772 Kprime
Kprime's picture

It's going to print out a nice 2.8 or 3.1.  In six months when no one is looking anymore they will revise it down to 1.8, then in another six months down to .6, then in another six months down to -.8

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