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Social Security Versus CBO - Who Do You Trust?
The 2014 Social Security report to Congress is finally out (Link). The report was released four-months later than permitted by law; this is the sixth year in a row that the Report has been late. The word 'sloppy' comes to mind; Treasury Secretary Lew gets a 'D' for timeliness.
I'm blow out by this year's report! It was just 13 days ago that the Congressional Budget Office released its numbers for SS (Link). There are very significant variances on key metrics for SS. The inescapable conclusion comparing the two reports is that either; (1) CBO is misrepresenting numbers with some kind of political agenda in mind, or (2) SS is sand bagging its numbers for reasons that have to be political as well.
There are few key metrics to consider. The first is the Immediate and Permanent (I&P) payroll tax increase necessary to 'fix' SS for the next 75 years. CBO says that the I&P is 4%, while SS claims it is only 2.88%. One might look at the two numbers and say, "What's the big dif?, the two #s are only 1.12% different!" Actually, the 1.12% comes to very big bucks. Over the 75 year period it comes to trillions of dollars. For 2015 the difference in the I&P calculation comes to $75B. That's a lot of Billions.
Another data point is the estimate for the year in which the SS Trust Funds become depleted. CBO has this date as 2030 while SS thinks it will be delayed until 2033. One could drive a truck through the different estimates.
A critical milestone for SS will be the year in which the SSTFs top-out and begin the rundown to zero. CBO has this happening in 2017, while SS says it will not happen until three years later in 2020. A three year difference in something that is only 2 1/2 year away? How could the models differ so widely?
It's my opinion that SS has warped its numbers. What SS has provided is:
Ho Hum, nothing has changed from last year. No needed to think about SS today, and certainly do not to make this an election issue. We wouldn't want Conservative folks to have something to talk about this fall.
CBO, on the other hand, is saying:
Red Alert! America's biggest single expense is a running amok. In less than 15 years there will be a crisis, and it will be very expensive to 'fix' it. For heaven's sake, please, let's have a dialog about this before it's too late!
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Stupid should hurt.
How is the funding level if 3/4 of seniors die in WW3?
The different forecast are obviously using different assumptions. An error in assumptions will mean a much greater difference in what is seen here. It's like doing a financial plan for someone assuming 8% a year returns. Do the same plan where they only earn 6% and they are dreadfully underfunded. Show them 10% returns and they feel they can stop saving.
Time for the Rumsfield quote about 'unknowns"
Is it too late to use boomers as human shields for Hamas underground tunnels?
Could be. But not too late for a boomer to slap the shit out of you causing you to cry to mommy.
Angry frog
I assume you are entirely self sufficient and always have been. No help from the older generation you hate.
I think the number would actually be closer to 92% dead, leaving 8%, given their previously stated population target of 500,000 for the planet (Georgia Guidestones).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk
Listening to this really makes me laugh, these guys are so full of shit. It's funny, really.
Stop, Drop, and ROFL
Kind of funny. Bruce is questioning if someone is lying? Of course they are lying, it's what they do
Social Security was, is, and always will be a Ponzi Fraud.
Let It Burn.
Please understand the legal underpinnings of Social Security and particularly the Social Security treasury fund account. When you fully understand the law, your comment above will embarrass you.
Krasting is trying to separate you from your assets. I hope he is not successful.
Your head has been completely separated from your neck and is firmly and squarely up your ass is the point I'm trying to make to you.
"Krasting is trying to separate you from your assets."
The ONLY way to know that You OWN something is to SELL it.
I am MORE than williing to be 'seperated from MY ASSET' ( pending notional SS benefit revenue stream ) for a price of my choosing.
Since there is NO WAY IN HELL that I can legally SELL what You ( and Others ) continually refer to as 'MY ASSET' it is clear that You are either a fool or a shill.
I'm somehow wrong?
Define EXACTLY HOW an unrealized notional payments stream that may or may not be made in full, or may or may not be paid begining on any particular date if at all, that I cannot SELL, is some kind of ASSET.
Had you been in one of my classes, you clearly would have failed accounting 101 (actually designated 201 at most colleges).
You do not understand the difference between assets and liabilities.
You don't need to any more. (see Federal Reserve)
What I do understand is Social Security law and specifically how it relates to the Social Security treasury fund account. As for the difference between assets and liabilities, I understand that as well as China, Germany, Warren Buffet and the Koch brothers.
Grow up and get a real job.
Then you will have something to contribute to the conversation.
When it will run out of money? It's been running on a deficit for the last three years.
Never! It's against the law for SS to run a deficit.
"Social Security Versus CBO - Who Do You Trust?"
Neither.
Who's lying? Both.
"I should be on Jeopardy."
What is "All of these fuckers" for $100
And now, for 1000 Fed Notes, the Answer is: "Janet Yellen's Pension".
Steve-O: "uhhh....ummm...What is the current capital value of the Social Security Retirment Fund?" "
"That is.....CORRECTOMUNDO! young Steve-O! The board's all yours..."
"I'll take 'Why Me?' for a Billion Alex."
Was this article written 10 years ago?
"For 2015 the difference in the I&P calculation comes to $75B. That's a lot of Billions."
I mean, when was the last time $75 billion was considered a lot money?
It is considered a lot when paying for promises made to citizens.
It is pocket change when bailing out or pumping Wall Street.
"I mean, when was the last time $75 billion was considered a lot money?"
$75bil. could produce a lot of guillotines. About one per American person.
Just keep talking sexy like that.
Trust neither. Both sets of numbers argue the system can be saved.
I already told you not to worry. Obummer is importing millions of diseased immigrants which he will spread around the country in the same way smallpox blankets were given to the Indians. Those diseases will kill off the baby boomer (ie white) population so Medicare and Social Security won't go broke.
$75 Billion short? So what.
The FED slathered that on Wall Street once per month for over a year.
They can now give it to Social Security and retirees.
Why not?
If it's good enough for Wall Street it should be just as good for real life citizens who actually paid into the system.
Heresy, I know (nice to see you Bruce).
"$75 Billion short? So what.
The FED slathered that on Wall Street once per month for over a year.
They can now give it to Social Security and retirees.
Why not?
If it's good enough for Wall Street it should be just as good for real life citizens who actually paid into the system."
I'll say it again: Every single Bank and Corporation that was bailed out or propped should have been placed in trust to Social Security. The Banking monopoly should have been entirely repatriated/expropriated and have become the funding mechanism for paying the benefits -and the taxation completely phased out by NOW.
I don't trust either one. The CBO has a long history of optimistic projections. And SS is even more optimistic than the CBO.
But why does Bruce keep focusing on SS when Medicare is an even bigger timebomb?
Good question. I stay away from the health side of things because I think health is a much different issue than rich boomers retirement funds.
SS will scare us to death, but Medicare, Medicaid, Chips and Obamcare will kill us.
Better?
Then you better eat right and stay in shape.
Bootycare
Yeah, but you should mention that the I&P is only 2.88% (or 4%, whatever) income tax increase to fix the smallest problem of all we have.
SS will scare us to death, but Medicare, Medicaid, Chips and Obamcare will kill us.
Then what is the problem? If we are doomed by Medicare, Medicaid, Chips and the Unaffordable Care Act then your entire essay is a moot issue.
It is called "priorities"???
Ebola will do us in before anything financial anyway.
Actually I do not believe that anything really matters at this point.
No disrespect intended. I believe that you believe that you are doing that which you think is best.
Very few have their priorities set straight.
Ebola ain't the harbinger of death that you think it is. If it was air borne, yeah, that would be scary!
SS disability fund goes belly up in 2016
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2013/apr/15/rob-portman/sen-rob-portman-says-social-security-disability-fu/
Many of the maxed out UI claimants jumped over to SS DI. Of course a bunch of lawyers set up shop to assist in filing and suing for denied claims.
Agree it should go broke soon enough.
Rich baby boomers? Your populist bullshit adjusts to the times rapidly. Piece of shit.
Agree...those fuckers are already collecting. I'd much rather focus on double and triple dippers at the federal level and those at the state level who are bleeding us on property and state taxes
Stfu bruce
Bruce - great to see you back - nobody wants to do anything about it because the only solution is to take away someone's free candy (or should I say "trust obligation?"). The Government isn't in the business of taking anything away (except for Veteran's services/benefits, that is).
The argument is weed out the freeloaders. Good luck.
Let them say that people who have paid in since 1970 are getting dick and see what happens. No politician has them balls.
didnt think it was that good of an article. The only solution is to say "sorry, we spent all that money, it wasnt set aside and invested for you, we blew it all on the welfare/warfare state, al thats left is IOUs from an insolvent govt"
dont think thats going to happen
they also take away my money every quater and give it to such deserving free loaders? sorry for my comments if your just down on your luck but trying, elderly or disabled those groups I can only hope get my portion of taxes!
Personally, I go to the White House website for my news and information.
The problem is that cbo recognized that payroll tax revenues , social security and medicare taxes, are declining.
Without reading the medicare or soc sec trust reports, i bet they did not account for a stagnant economy and choose rather to use the optimistic 4-5% gdp model with real employment improving, showing the ponzi continues.
Half time jobs at half the pay reduces payroll tax collections hello.
1099 jobs with deductions of all sorts before self employment taxes calculated reduces payroll tax collections.
This was fucked in 2008 so six years later......................................
Really? then you are reading the biggest lies out there. I sure hope thats a joke but don't see that you joking except the 9 likes you have and that's scary
People struggled with email for the same reasons, you cant see the facial expressions so you lose some meaning. I am pretty sure that was lazy sarcasm without the sarc tag. Only somebody with an IQ of less than like 35 could make that statement seriously and there are arent that many people with that low an IQ, and they likely would not be commenting here. So.....
Deadpan delivery is dead
I just ignore Bruces articles.
He is a STATIST.