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Behold The New Normal Definition Of "Confidence"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While headlines are flashing red about how exuberant the consumer is, there appears to be some 'new normal' oddness under the covers. Projecting this positive news into the future (as every talking-head is) does not add up with the fact that "plans to buy a car" and "plans to buy a major appliance" both tumbled in July. But the biggest problem for the 'recovery', "plans to buy a home" collapsed to its lowest since Feb 2013... welcome to the new normal definition of confidence.

 

 

Is it any wonder when 77 million Americans have debt past due...!

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:47 | 5017635 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Please it's a rentier society.  It has been for quite some time and your owners are demanding another pound of flesh.  Now, pay the fuck up.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:49 | 5017648 wallstreetapost...
wallstreetaposteriori's picture

Maybe they didn't understand the survey...  they must be confident that they are NOT going to purchase any of these items because shit is so bad for them... and they are confident that they will get food stamps and obamaphones.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:57 | 5017687 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Dow's up 65.  Let's re-run the survey.  I'm suddenly feeling more confident.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:29 | 5017872 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Somebody dumped that pump rather quickly.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:51 | 5018000 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

How's that "plans to join the army" component lookin?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:08 | 5017752 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Obviously these people need to get a 2nd mortgage to 90% of their property value from TCF Bank! Check it out folks, fool me once, fool me twice, idiot 2nd mortgage lending is back again in Calfornia!

So if home prices dip just 12%, suddenly all these homes are upside down! We all know how this will end for this company.

·        

TCF DOES NOT OFFER FIRST LIEN HELOCs – HELOC must be in second position behind new first mortgage (purchase or refinance) processed and originated by your firm.

·       

OWNER OCCUPIED ONLYno second homes or non- owner (investment) properties

·       

No non-occupant co borrowers

·        

Single family homes, condos and O/O duplexes OK.  No triplexes or fourplexes.

·        

No I/O’s –OK behind amortized  ARMS –TCF qualifies at First Lender’s Qualifying Rate.

·        

Cannot have more than 6 “non subject” properties – financed or free and clear

 

·       

Max 89.99% CLTV*-  for Combined liens of $750,000 or less

·        

Max 85.00% CLTV- for Combined liens to $1,275,000.   Max HELOC $350,000

 

·        

*Condo guideline change!  Max 89.99% CLTV OK for Condo  Purchase or Refinance!!

 

We look forward to working with you in 2014!!

 

Joanne Fabiano            or         Jhonda Stamper (my Inside Partner in Minnesota)

jfabiano@tcfbank.com            jstamper@tcfbank.com

(707) 666-1102                        (612) 661- 6734

 

 

 

Scenario assistance, Bret Knettel  bknettel@tcfbank.com  (612) 661-8917

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:31 | 5018169 sessinpo
sessinpo's picture

LawsofPhysics    Please it's a rentier society.  It has been for quite some time and your owners are demanding another pound of flesh.  Now, pay the fuck up.

----

Not only that, but that land was stolen. They should be bombarded with rocket fire.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:48 | 5017644 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

They don't even pretend they're not making this shitt up anymore...it's all just upfront and blatant fabrication

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:29 | 5017863 rbianco3
rbianco3's picture

Exactly. It's as if they are trying to paint the (gold/silver) chart or something, worried we might stay above the 200 MA.  I wish I had a bazillion dollars like the Fed and I'd buy a couple train cars full of gold and silver.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:48 | 5017646 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

If anyone buys a home now they'lll be the dip

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:48 | 5017649 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Sad part is the low information crowd will believe this colossal crock of simmer'n cow crap.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:54 | 5017668 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

No they don't. No matter what kind of propaganda they put out there, Americans aren't buying it. The only people who buy it are the 35% of people who support Zero no matter what he does.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 14:17 | 5018738 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

Agreed and thats how i felt about the 35% who thought Shrub was a great prez. Let's hope the remaining 30% have their wits about them and have escaped the false left/right paradigm.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:49 | 5017652 agstacks
agstacks's picture

never sign a contract with a guy named Shylock.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:50 | 5017656 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

But who's to say what they'll be doing in 7 months from now,

THUS CONFIDENCE ROCKETS!!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:55 | 5018017 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Where's the entry that measures whether one plans to buy more gold and silver? Confidence spike, bitchez!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:57 | 5018029 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Amerika is the most assfluent society in the history of man

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:52 | 5017660 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I want to see the answer to "plans to move out of parents' basement in the next 6 months".  Or "plans to pay off student loans in the next 6 months."  Or "plans to get out of debt collection in the next 6 months."

Those would be your leading indicators.  Nothing else happens downstream until those start to tick up.

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:56 | 5017661 olle
olle's picture

"Plan to buy a gun and arm myself" will that be a ´click´ for more confidence....???

êdit: spelling

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:53 | 5017666 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Sounds like lots of peeps are confident they ain't payin' their IOU's back?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:57 | 5017691 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Normalcy bias has people convinced there is more upside than down from where they sit.

When you hit rock bottom, there's only two ways to go - straight up or sideways.  Wynonna Judd

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:07 | 5018080 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Just like walking into a bar, there is nothing like starting at the bottom,

and working your way down.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:58 | 5017694 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

how about the  " plan to get a full time job" catagory?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:03 | 5017729 Thomas Aquinas
Thomas Aquinas's picture

Another demonstration of the increasing power of the apparatus of the US Govt Ministry of Disinformation

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:05 | 5017740 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

Confident that my gold with be worth a lot more in 7 mos. is that a category?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:18 | 5017741 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

"While headlines are flashing red about how exuberant the consumer is,..."

Be careful, man.  Keep telling the truth like this and you may have a close encounter with a drone...

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:06 | 5017743 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

instead of a "plans to buy a home" survey, how about a survey about "plans to hang yourself"?

 

bet you get some interesting results there

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:11 | 5017774 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

Anyone placing confidence in survey results needs their head examined. I have never been a survey respondent, nor anyone I know. Most people today are like me in that telephone calls from unknown callers are never answered. And besides, who would want to spend time answering foolish questions?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:18 | 5017809 youngman
youngman's picture

So this time are they going to be held liable if they default...or will it be the big bad banks just pulling the wool over their eyes with these nasty loans and be forgiven...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:25 | 5017836 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gee, all that unveiling of great news and stawks seem to hate it? Shucks.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:27 | 5017848 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Islamist militants are taking over Mesopotamia, the Israelis are leveling Gaza, Russia is warring with former Soviet Bloc countries, Ebola is spreading in Africa, foreign commercial flights are disappearing/crashing/being shot down.....so, what's going on here at home?  iPhone 6 is coming out!!!  I guess confidence is relative. 

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:37 | 5017919 passenger_pidgin
passenger_pidgin's picture

I'm confident that things will continue to get worse.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:44 | 5017970 MickV
MickV's picture

The Progressives and Fellow Travelers alway like to change the meaning of words!

War is Peace

Freedom is Slavery

The War to end Wars

a citizen at birth is a natural born Citizen

Marriage is between 2 people of the same gender

Invasion at the border is diversity

Paying taxes is patriotic

Confidence is.....

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:55 | 5018007 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

It is what ever they tell you it is.

I learned that 10 years ago.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:00 | 5018047 Burticus
Burticus's picture

Yes, debt serfdom makes is impossible to own a home, since real estate always comes with a parasite attached and you can't more it or hide it from parasites and bottom-feeders.

Good thing the (not really) Federal (with no) Reserve and their enabling elephant/jackass sock puppets gave trillions of FeRNs to the banks, so they could foreclose on millions of 'murkin debt slaves.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:43 | 5018227 NegativelyBiase...
NegativelyBiasedCredulity's picture

agnotologic capitalism

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 14:33 | 5018840 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

MAYBE people are 'confident' about the future because things are SO BAD now, that they reckon things can't get any worse, therefore there must be improvement ahead.

Bullish!

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