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Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Dec 2011, Miss 2nd Month In A Row

Tyler Durden's picture


But it was supposed to be the weather? S&P/Case-Shiller home prices dropped in May and missed expectations for the 2nd month in a row. Against a forecast rise on 0.3%, prices dropped in May by 0.3% - the biggest drop since December 2011. It appears we are going to need more Chinese hot money flow buyers.




The May inflection point in the seasonally adjusted data is quite obvious:

Of note, while in April Case-Shiller reported only 5 cities out of the tracked 20 posting sequential price declines, in May this number has soared to 14. And so the fourth dead cat bounce in housing appears to be over.

Finally, from the report itself:

“Home prices rose at their slowest pace since February of last year,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The 10- and 20-City Composites posted just over 9%, well below expectations. Month-to-month, all cities are posting gains before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment 14 of 20 were lower.


“Year-over-year, nine cities – Las Vegas (16.9%), San Francisco (15.4%), Miami (13.2%), San Diego (12.4%), Los Angeles (12.3%), Detroit (11.9%), Atlanta (11.2%), Tampa (10.2%) and Portland (10.0%) – posted double-digit increases in May 2014. The Sun Belt continues to lead with seven of the top eight performing cities. Eighteen of 20 cities had lower year-over-year numbers than last month; San Francisco and San Diego saw their year-over-year figures decelerate by about three percentage points.


“Housing has been turning in mixed economic numbers in the last few months. Prices and sales of existing homes have shown improvement while construction and sales of new homes continue to lag. At the same time, the broader economy and especially employment are showing larger improvements and substantial gains.”

Source: Case Shiller

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Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:10 | 5017164 1stepcloser
1stepcloser's picture

per CNBS

U.S. single-family home prices rose more than expected in May, though the pace of monthly increases showed definite signs of slowing, a closely watched survey said on Tuesday.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:15 | 5017177 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Huge demand in the 29.5 hr/wk job sector for homes.


Most of them are just window shoppers however.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:18 | 5017193 power steering
power steering's picture

CNBC banner says it's up 9.3% YOY

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:22 | 5017215 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You probably overlooked Since Dec 2011 in the title.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:38 | 5017274 power steering
power steering's picture

The think to overlook are your posts

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:38 | 5017277 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Of course home prices fell..

Who would buy a house when they're going to die from ebola ?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:10 | 5018090 max2205
max2205's picture

Decelerate....really. you are pushing doom again

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:20 | 5017203 power steering
power steering's picture

CNBC banner says it's up 9.4% YOY

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:24 | 5017223 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Not only a double post...but the 9.4% number changed.


How do you do something like that?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:37 | 5017270 power steering
power steering's picture

You dont bring a dumb question to a ball game

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:41 | 5017287 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Steve Liesman, is that you??

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:44 | 5017292 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



You dont bring a dumb question to a ball game


Which is why I'm guessing you're not going to give me an answer.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:45 | 5017304 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

warmer weather has caused demand for homes to go down as it's easier to be homeless in the summer months /krugman

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:18 | 5017808 midtowng
midtowng's picture

These price drops are right in middle of the strongest buying season. What will happen when fall comes?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:17 | 5017189 farragut
farragut's picture

In the same MSM-misleading vein, per MarketWatch:

"U.S. home prices rise 1.1% in May amid signs of waning pressure"
Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:25 | 5017227 Renfield
Renfield's picture

A price rise in and of itself, given the slow pace of the housing market, can be deceptive.

A housing market will often skew to the upside just before a big move down, as the bottom falls out of the first-home, low-tier market and the only thing moving is the "high end". (As the lower end leads the slump.)

In the meantime, I would suggest all RE price analysis is meaningless without a look at what's driving this market, namely Chinese credit.


"Yet, in Hangzhou, some of the price falls have been fast.

One property developer's office in the city was smashed up by buyers.

They were angry they had paid more for their apartments a year ago than their new neighbours were now paying.

"A lot in China depends on confidence, and it's a matter of trying to get the middle class to think the value of their investment will go up again," says Jonathan Fenby, China director at Trusted Sources."

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:27 | 5017235 economessed
Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:14 | 5017173 pods
pods's picture

If there was a plus in front of that number instead of a minus things would be good, right Joe?


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:14 | 5017174 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Fucking June snow!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:14 | 5017175 KidHorn
KidHorn's picture

From looking at the table, it looks like everything went up. What am I missing?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:17 | 5017184 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



It's OK.....charts are hard.


Find the red line with the arrow....and go backwards.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:15 | 5017176 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Aside from a few 'hot' markets, home prices must inevitably decline to the affordability level of first time buyers - and that level is well below current levels. Also the empty nest size-down of boomers is an important trend that will also hold back prices. Just like jobs, the Fed cannot win this battle.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:17 | 5017187 suteibu
suteibu's picture

Yes, it's been a few months since I last heard from my Obama-voting mortgage broker.  I wonder why?  Was it something I said?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:18 | 5017192 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Not suprising.  The ultra high end levitation is masking the low end collapse.  Slightest ripple in the high end throws the averages around like a rag doll.

Related, somehwat.... 35% of US citizens are in debt collection for one debt or another.  So, there's more than 1/3 of the "consumer" market that's pretty much locked out from getting a mortgage to buy a house.  Link:


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:22 | 5017216 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

i am surpirised this was reported on yahoo

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:26 | 5017231 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



Only after it was approved by the KGB I'm sure.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:18 | 5017198 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

With tech industry 'laying off' over 48,000 first half 2014 not including Microsoft's 18,000, it's going to be intersting how property taxes, maintenance, nortgages, food, gas, etc are financed. I wonder how many Chinese the NAR will fly in to buy all those boxes.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:18 | 5017199 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Maybe INS should hand out flyers for homes for sale , cheap, to all the illegal immigrants pouring in.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:20 | 5017207 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Even the local radio host admitted the figures were terrible this AM,

and also only high end homes were distorting the picture. This guy has been

a ra ra guy for the NAR, so its prolly even worser than that.

Mr Yellen needs to sit on control P, no point having an ass that big and not using it.


Faux news is beating the war drums to death as well. Have to listen to see what the agends

is for the sheeple.Not good at all.

Short homo sapiens now.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:25 | 5017228 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

EconoPray offers a tasty little morsel toward the end of its take on this report:

Home-price appreciation is slowing rapidly, actually going into reverse in June at a seasonally adjusted minus 0.3 percent for Case-Shiller's 20-city index. This is the first negative reading since January 2012.

Year-on-year, both adjusted and unadjusted, home prices are at plus 9.3 percent, down substantially from 10.8 percent and 12.4 percent in the two prior months.

The weakness is very apparent in the 20-city breakdown with 14 cities in the negative column for the month. Atlanta shows the steepest monthly decline, at minus 0.9 percent, followed closely by Chicago and San Francisco.

Unadjusted data are followed in this report and show deceptive strength, at a monthly plus 1.1 percent. But this reflects seasonal strength in the summer months for housing and is not a sign of pricing power.

Softening home prices reflects the underlying weakness still apparent in the housing sector which, after a respectable 2013, is having a bad year. But home-price appreciation got too far ahead of actual sales where year-on-year rates for existing homes have been in the negative column this year. In a plus, however, lower prices should give a badly needed boost to sales. Today's report confirms similar weakness seen in last week's FHFA home-price report.

So lower prices can lead to more homes being sold? The hell, you say.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:27 | 5017237 Renfield
Renfield's picture

Best time to buy is when interest rates are high (the higher the better) and prices are low (the lower the better).

The further away one goes from these conditions, the worse time it becomes to buy a house.

This is probably about the worst time in the history of the world to buy a house, if price is the main or only consideration.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:49 | 5017329 IANAE
IANAE's picture

locking in cheap 30 year fixed rate money has its appealing features, especially if/when home prices are still semi-crashed...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:27 | 5017234 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Companies are still outsourcing to India. A once major US telecom companie is outsourcing many remaining jobs to India. The US workers are training their Indian replacements over the next 1.5 years.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:08 | 5017758 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

Don't all those Indian workers have names like Nancy?  At least 20 of them that have called me for Uverse or cellphone coverage seem to be named that.

I just hang up

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:29 | 5017241 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

gubbamant revenues are percentages - deflation fucks gubbamant nicely from a revenue perspective


and Barry cannot tax his way out of this one - so it's cuts or defaults - we know you like defaults Barry

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:45 | 5017303 IANAE
IANAE's picture

pump & dump just like stawks...only much more difficult to dump.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:46 | 5017311 youngman
youngman's picture

Why buy when you can live with mom and dad...but more like just mom....dad divoraced years ago....and mom will give you the house in her will...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 09:57 | 5017362 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The hedgies trying to dump their properties? They know what the future holds.

In the end it's save yourself and screw the others. Sell before the others exit, don't want to be the last seller.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017464 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

The hedgies haven't quite thrown in the towel yet.

I am still negotiating a land purchase from one now,having started in December.

Looks like we might deal at 50% of their asking price  ,touch wood.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:18 | 5017480 nink
nink's picture

Detroit 11.9%. Crap last year it cost me $1000 for a house now it's $1190 who can afford that?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:20 | 5017493 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

but if you set it on fire, you can get a discount

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 13:29 | 5018455 damicol
damicol's picture

They don't burn.


 Thats the only reason they are still standing

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:12 | 5017780 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Don't you love how Bloomberg spins the same news?


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