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Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs

Tyler Durden's picture




 

On the heels of UMich confidence tumbling to 4-month lows, the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the highest since October 2007. This is the 3rd monthly rise in a row and the biggest beat in 13 months all led by a spike in future expectations to its highest since Feb 2011.

 

3 months up in a row and highest since Oct 2007

 

Still quite a divergence between government and non-government surveys...

 

The last time the conference board confidence diverged this much from UMich confidence was June 2007 and that did not end well...

 

Does this look like a confident set of survey respondents...

Plan To Buy In Next 6 Months:

  • Car 11.6% vs 12.2% in June
  • Home 4.4% vs 5.4% in June (lowest since Feb 2013)
  • Major Appliance 46.5% vs 50.4% in June

But Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

“Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2).

 

Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations.

 

Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

*  *  *

Odd that she would claim a brighter outlook for personal income... given the reality

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:09 | 5017428 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

HAHAHAHHAHAHA ....stop....I can't take it anymore.....The BLS is funnier than Rodney Dangerfield

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017452 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

It's a real 'confidence' game, isn't it?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:19 | 5017483 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Looks like the sheep are ready to be sheered once again.  This time TPTB will push things farther than in 2007...they'll wait longer and ramp things even higher just to try and sucker in even the most skeptical of the sheeple.

That's when they finally pull the rug out from everybody who isn't out of the banking system, out of paper, and who hold physical PM's. 

It will be a blood bath. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:26 | 5017515 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If I were Univeristy of Michigan, I'd get with the program before S&P downgrades you and the government files a lawsuit.  They are straying too far from the pre-programmed story and too close to truthiness.

By the way, 100 is "neutral".  So just realize that neither survey has made it as high as neutral in a VERY long time.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:53 | 5017667 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It looks like something happened at the beginning of the year. Since then the CC and Mich reports are at odds, one up and the other down. That almost never happened before but now it's every month.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:59 | 5017707 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i would think 99% of us here are more than confindent.....confident this will be the biggest shitstorm ever....

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:10 | 5017765 espirit
espirit's picture

Skittles Shitting Unicorn?

I want one.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:32 | 5017888 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

This number makes perfect sense, as it's a consumer confidence survey.

It's just that there's not nearly as many consumers as there used to be.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:01 | 5018054 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Just noise, or bull shit, useless.  By the way, what definition is being used for non-government and government institutions.  U of M is a cog in the machinery of big government.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:20 | 5017492 pods
pods's picture

Most of the guys who fought that pugilist-poet Mike Tyson early in his career probably were confident too.

Just like most drunks are confident that they can talk their way out of a ride in the back of a cop car.

Yet we have an actual government agency that measures confidence?

We should just call it the propoganda effect.

Like take the real state of things and subtract it from these "confidence" readings and call that the propaganda effect.

pods

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017500 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

a dozen beers and a few hours sleeping in the sun is all that it takes to get it going...

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017504 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Instead of BLS, it should be BSL -

BullShit and Lies

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:00 | 5017712 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

Im confident,that ,

ALL HELL IS GONNA BREAK LOOSE!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017429 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

It's different this time.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:19 | 5017487 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

remember when I told you I was going to give you a raise?

http://youtu.be/iYVO5bUFww0

you just keep on expecting brother...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:11 | 5017760 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Thanks to the fake recovery, I'm getting 20% of the raise I was promised last year. Boss man said "if the economy keeps recovering, I'll get some more of it next year!"

Why are all bosses clueless idiots? Natural selection, or the rose-colored glasses of cognitive dissonance?

God bless the Grand Facade, is all I can say.

Oh, and the student loan bubble.

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:33 | 5017898 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

@ SD You're a mean man, you know that, don't you? You wouldn't happen to be a banker? Or Belgian?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017431 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Prepare for impact.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017455 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

That asteroid will bounce of my umbrella quite nicely, I reckon. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:55 | 5017678 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's not aimed at you, just watch out for the ripples.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017434 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Nothing to see here, folks...  just wait for Yellen's instructions.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:11 | 5017435 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

allot of 2007'ish stuff happening

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017449 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Yeah, but this time it's being 'managed' properly.  Outcomes to be entirely different, right Mr. Krugman?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017436 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

They are obviously NOT surveying the 92 million that have dropped out of the workforce.

They know who not to csll (SNAP, WIC, etc)

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017461 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Well, this is great news. ZIRP has solved the "Financial Crisis", Yellen can announce interest rate normalization this afternoon and end all this "crisis" and "Emergency Fed Policy".

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:28 | 5017525 youngman
youngman's picture

I agree..either we are or we are not....and they all say we are back to growth...so to me ..the Fed is way behind the curve...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:24 | 5017613 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Everbody knows all of the numbers are Fanatasy, it won't matter until it does. Somebody will yell "fire!",  the new crisis "that nobody could have seen coming" will wipe out 5 years of fraud.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:34 | 5017551 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Do they survey those who can no longer pay cell phone or landline bills?

Do they notice the increasing number of retailers closing, or the empty storefronts that remain unleased for years ?

Does anyone believe anything said by a government representative today ?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:44 | 5017617 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

HardAssets  The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society.  (aka public relations company).

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017442 vyeung
vyeung's picture

Nothing like milking the retail before everything goes. Same MO everytime.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017444 Agent P
Agent P's picture

October 2007....what could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017445 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Govt surveys up up up! ... Private surveys down down down.

But they keep saying we are better than China.  Yeah, gotta be true.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017457 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

All you gotta be is better than 2nd best, regardless of where that might really be.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017450 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions

 

Huh????

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017460 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Delusion knows no ceiling.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017463 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Gotta.Convince.The.Public.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017474 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

They meant "Strong SNOW-job Growth" .... clearly.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017454 taraxias
taraxias's picture

That's what an ongoing massacre n Gaza, civil war in the Ukraine, and airplanes dropping out of the skies do to people........it gives them an urge to head to the nearest mall and buy junk.

We are so fucked.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017456 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

bullshit from top to bottom...
mother fuckers broke as a fucking joke yet they confident they wont remain broke as a fucking joke cause all though they aint no fucking jobs "the sun will come out tomorrow..."

and of course the action in the only 2 forms of real money today is expected and stupid...
this country as i have said over and over again is doomed...

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017459 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

FORWARD COMRADES! Utopia is nearing!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017469 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

When we reach Utopia, wake me up.  At that time we should proceed to D.C. and have us a real meeting of the minds.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017462 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Where are these consumers getting the cash to spend?  If it isn't from wages their "confidence" is fucking irrelevant.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017471 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They are cofident they would buy things if they had money.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:22 | 5017498 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

on a business anecdote level our sales are down 20% when compared to last July and summer is our busy season.

vacationing in northern Wisconsin recently saw a distinctive decrease in people eating out in restaurants.

Recovery Forward Comrades!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:46 | 5017625 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Yep - you notice that everywhere.

Americans have been taught that shopping is a form of entertainment. But malls have spaces that remain unleased. There are fewer shoppers, and those that are there carry far fewer bags with far less new purchases.

I hear this second hand, as I dislike shopping and hate malls.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:18 | 5017479 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

exactly...tell me one fucking thing you can walk into Food For Less and walk out with CONFIDENCE...
all fucking bullshit and mirrors...
MOPE
management of perspective economics.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017465 km4
km4's picture

35% of Americans Facing Debt Collectors http://feedly.com/e/uW9haBgC

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017466 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

after watching the MSM reporting on the Ukraine and selective information and metrics to blame Russia with supression of all other  contrary data - it is conceivable to me they are going into overdrive to manipulate ALL economic metrics as well

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:17 | 5017475 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Did they transfer Lois Lerner to the other statist bureau?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:27 | 5017521 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A little slow on the uptake there Omen.

Makes you wonder just how bad Q! was that they couldn't manipulate it positive.

My biz went  a little soft in Q2(after a record Q!), outside of my 0.01% clients.

They are still spending like drunken sailors, but I hate having all my eggs in one basket.

Seems everone else is broke ,or watching their pennies right now.

My survey is far more reliable than this BS. Surely nobody outside DC believes this

crap.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017472 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Wearing rose-colored glasses aids in drinking kool-aid propaganda. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:28 | 5017854 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Funny, I just used the "rose-colored glasses" phrase up-thread before I saw your post.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017473 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

just one more step to the cliff...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:18 | 5017484 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

utopia - the act of sitting on one's throne in the morning and it falls out gently

 

utopia

 

if you don't believe me, look it up

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017495 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

At least we can be confident that no one had this number early . Always love these surveys, they can literally say anything since its all about feelings

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:22 | 5017497 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

I think it's entirely due to Apple announcing they will have 80 gazillion new iPhones ready for the Christmas season.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017501 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Clearly the "consumers" they surveyed do NOT read the news.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017502 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

Last weekend I spent three days in Dublin with my wife and a bunch of her friends. Nobody seemed to have a care in the world. On such occasions I always think: "I hope this thing won't blow just when I'm out of the country, away from my kids". 

Bottom line: either we are fundamentally wrong and should be escorted to the nearest looney bin as soon as humanly possible, or we are threatened by a deadly outbreak of normalcy bias. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:59 | 5017708 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When I went on vacation it was the same way, and I had the same feeling. People were going on with life like nothing was happening, and I was beginning to think I was nuts for worrying about this crap. The best I can figure is that people just don't like to think about it, but if you engage them in a one on one conversation their concerns are quick to come out.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017505 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Plan B:

 

Bring back the NINJA loans to grant the displaced illegal wet backs a housing opportunity. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017506 compound interest
compound interest's picture

any economic "indicator" or "data" that is survey-based is just plain bullshit. I don't even know why these are published. "Measuring" "confidence" and "sentiment" is just a joke.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:25 | 5017516 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I can see the con but can't see the 'fide'

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:26 | 5017518 nink
nink's picture

100% of the 1% surveyed say everything is fine but don't ask the 99%.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:28 | 5017524 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Increasing the amount of flouride in the water supply has been a total success! Hooray!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:34 | 5017560 nink
nink's picture

Don't forget we legalized pot as well.I wonder what would happen if we put THC in the water supply, is everybody happy?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:38 | 5017580 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

nink  Do you not think it's there already, like birth conntrol drugs and other chemicals?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:29 | 5017526 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I keep a special BS meter pegged to the max for consumer confidence reports.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:30 | 5017531 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Survey said, the economy is returning to green shoots status.  

/sac

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:30 | 5017533 Tjeff1
Tjeff1's picture

Q:  Do you plan on spending more money on food and energy in the next month.

A: Yes.

Conclusion, the consumer is confident and plans to spend more money.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:58 | 5017702 nink
nink's picture

Q are you confident the recession is over and things will only get better?
A) Yes
B) All of the above

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:32 | 5017545 Shrapnel
Shrapnel's picture

Yawn.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:37 | 5017554 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

"... the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the highest since October 2000..."

"The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society..."

"global public interest" (there is no such thing as global public interest) "provide world's leading organizations" (opinon shapers), "imporove performance and better serve (own, increase power over, bend to our will) society (oxymoronic) .

ZH, please reconsider your use of  this organization as a "source".

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:11 | 5018107 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

dude, I just published the same thing.  hadnt seen yours.

and ZH is just mocking this BS, not using as a credible source.  thats why the comp to U Mich.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:37 | 5017557 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

desperate?

delusional?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:35 | 5017563 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

I am feeling confident in my recent ability to purchase small animal traps, bow and arrows and repairs to my old truck.  However I am not feeling confident in my ability to effectively use these purchases or repair my truck in the event of the shit hitting the fan.  

Fortunately I am confident in my current ability to purchase canned goods, obtain firewood and light my woodstove.

I am not sure about my chances of survival, however I am confident in my ability to give it a go and go out with some pride.  

Nets out to a positive consumer confidence number in my household too I think.

 

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:35 | 5017565 voltaic
voltaic's picture

And then this from Gallup:

U.S. Economic Confidence Down Sharply From Last Week http://www.gallup.com/poll/174179/economic-confidence-down-sharply-last-...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:41 | 5017600 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Wow! This must explain why 55% of the people think the country would be better off under Romney and El presidente Zero can't get out of the 60% disapproval range.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:45 | 5017618 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Americans are, generally,  delusionally optimistic if nothing else.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:48 | 5017645 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

I'm sorry, I scratched my hard drive and was polishing the scratch out, did I miss something?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:49 | 5017647 SMC
SMC's picture

Regime Propaganda for the mid-terms.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:05 | 5017734 rbianco3
rbianco3's picture

Speakin of propaganda... would you believe that Russia Today (rt.com) is on track to surpass Fox News in global rank within three months? I have always enjoyed RT, but was surprised to see they are on a collision course with Fox News in October. As long as the current three month trend holds, and my calculations are right anwyay...  details here http://politicalshootings.com/2014/07/27/russia-today-rt-com-will-surpas...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:57 | 5017695 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Why is 'explode' & 'October' often in the same sentence?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:59 | 5017710 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

We learned last week that a good number of New Yorkers are millionaires. Now we know who this survey asks.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:01 | 5017721 rbianco3
rbianco3's picture

What a complete joke. I don't know a single person that has confidence we'll make it to the end of the year, much less an explosion of confidence! The lies are starting to become laughable.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:06 | 5017744 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Single question survey:  "Are you confident you're screwed?"

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:44 | 5017962 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All governmnet data is shit, obviously.  This is an expected evolution.  It is what all banana republics do.  Soon it will be illegal to say there is inflation, just like in Argentina.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:10 | 5018091 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

yep, Cass Sunstein and his internet polizei will be on your ass.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:55 | 5018022 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

interesting that Gallup showed the exact opposite...
http://www.gallup.com/poll/174179/economic-confidence-down-sharply-last-...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:04 | 5018064 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Droll Humor at its finest!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:06 | 5018073 MickV
MickV's picture

Oh, I'm so sure!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:09 | 5018085 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

 

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world’s leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States.

better serve society. in this instance, society is better served not by a healthy dose of reality, but by continuing the charade that all is well.

just like all was well in 2007 2008. right up until LEH went bankrupt.

 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:10 | 5018089 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    These fucking polls are so retardly skewed. JFC I haven't been in a Mc Donalds in years, so I thought I'd check out the price list for inflation. I realize prices are going to be much higher in some countries and regions, but $4.00 for a quarter pounder slider is beyond idiotic! The last time I had one they were under $3.00 and I thought that was expensive for wood pulp wrapped in pink slime.

    One has to wonder when Mc Donalds is going to hire fancy French speaking waiters that serve soft drinks out of decanters, in dining areas full of mood lighting provided by overhead CFL chandeliers, to make the serf feel like it's getting it's moneys worth.

 McDonalds Prices | Fast Food Menu Prices

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 13:59 | 5018644 SilverMoneyBags
SilverMoneyBags's picture

Record confidence, yet 77 million Americans are facing debt collection? Talk about a disconnect.

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