Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs

Tyler Durden's picture

On the heels of UMich confidence tumbling to 4-month lows, the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the highest since October 2007. This is the 3rd monthly rise in a row and the biggest beat in 13 months all led by a spike in future expectations to its highest since Feb 2011.


3 months up in a row and highest since Oct 2007


Still quite a divergence between government and non-government surveys...


The last time the conference board confidence diverged this much from UMich confidence was June 2007 and that did not end well...


Does this look like a confident set of survey respondents...

Plan To Buy In Next 6 Months:

  • Car 11.6% vs 12.2% in June
  • Home 4.4% vs 5.4% in June (lowest since Feb 2013)
  • Major Appliance 46.5% vs 50.4% in June

But Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

“Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2).


Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations.


Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

*  *  *

Odd that she would claim a brighter outlook for personal income... given the reality


Charts: Bloomberg

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More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

HAHAHAHHAHAHA ....stop....I can't take it anymore.....The BLS is funnier than Rodney Dangerfield

dontgoforit's picture

It's a real 'confidence' game, isn't it?

Save_America1st's picture

Looks like the sheep are ready to be sheered once again.  This time TPTB will push things farther than in 2007...they'll wait longer and ramp things even higher just to try and sucker in even the most skeptical of the sheeple.

That's when they finally pull the rug out from everybody who isn't out of the banking system, out of paper, and who hold physical PM's. 

It will be a blood bath. 

NoDebt's picture

If I were Univeristy of Michigan, I'd get with the program before S&P downgrades you and the government files a lawsuit.  They are straying too far from the pre-programmed story and too close to truthiness.

By the way, 100 is "neutral".  So just realize that neither survey has made it as high as neutral in a VERY long time.

DeadFred's picture

It looks like something happened at the beginning of the year. Since then the CC and Mich reports are at odds, one up and the other down. That almost never happened before but now it's every month.

smlbizman's picture

i would think 99% of us here are more than confindent.....confident this will be the biggest shitstorm ever....

espirit's picture

Skittles Shitting Unicorn?

I want one.

NotApplicable's picture

This number makes perfect sense, as it's a consumer confidence survey.

It's just that there's not nearly as many consumers as there used to be.

MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Just noise, or bull shit, useless.  By the way, what definition is being used for non-government and government institutions.  U of M is a cog in the machinery of big government.

pods's picture

Most of the guys who fought that pugilist-poet Mike Tyson early in his career probably were confident too.

Just like most drunks are confident that they can talk their way out of a ride in the back of a cop car.

Yet we have an actual government agency that measures confidence?

We should just call it the propoganda effect.

Like take the real state of things and subtract it from these "confidence" readings and call that the propaganda effect.


Sudden Debt's picture

a dozen beers and a few hours sleeping in the sun is all that it takes to get it going...


HardAssets's picture

Instead of BLS, it should be BSL -

BullShit and Lies

Pooper Popper's picture

Im confident,that ,


Tsar Pointless's picture

It's different this time.

Sudden Debt's picture

remember when I told you I was going to give you a raise?

you just keep on expecting brother...

NotApplicable's picture

Thanks to the fake recovery, I'm getting 20% of the raise I was promised last year. Boss man said "if the economy keeps recovering, I'll get some more of it next year!"

Why are all bosses clueless idiots? Natural selection, or the rose-colored glasses of cognitive dissonance?

God bless the Grand Facade, is all I can say.

Oh, and the student loan bubble.


highly debtful's picture

@ SD You're a mean man, you know that, don't you? You wouldn't happen to be a banker? Or Belgian?

TeamDepends's picture

Prepare for impact.

Grande Tetons's picture

That asteroid will bounce of my umbrella quite nicely, I reckon. 

DeadFred's picture

It's not aimed at you, just watch out for the ripples.

jay28elle's picture

Nothing to see here, folks...  just wait for Yellen's instructions.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

allot of 2007'ish stuff happening

jay28elle's picture

Yeah, but this time it's being 'managed' properly.  Outcomes to be entirely different, right Mr. Krugman?

Loucleve's picture

They are obviously NOT surveying the 92 million that have dropped out of the workforce.

They know who not to csll (SNAP, WIC, etc)

El Hosel's picture

Well, this is great news. ZIRP has solved the "Financial Crisis", Yellen can announce interest rate normalization this afternoon and end all this "crisis" and "Emergency Fed Policy".

youngman's picture

I agree..either we are or we are not....and they all say we are back to to me ..the Fed is way behind the curve...

El Hosel's picture

Everbody knows all of the numbers are Fanatasy, it won't matter until it does. Somebody will yell "fire!",  the new crisis "that nobody could have seen coming" will wipe out 5 years of fraud.

HardAssets's picture

Do they survey those who can no longer pay cell phone or landline bills?

Do they notice the increasing number of retailers closing, or the empty storefronts that remain unleased for years ?

Does anyone believe anything said by a government representative today ?

dizzyfingers's picture

HardAssets  The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society.  (aka public relations company).

vyeung's picture

Nothing like milking the retail before everything goes. Same MO everytime.

Agent P's picture

October 2007....what could possibly go wrong?

Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Govt surveys up up up! ... Private surveys down down down.

But they keep saying we are better than China.  Yeah, gotta be true.

jay28elle's picture

All you gotta be is better than 2nd best, regardless of where that might really be.

The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions



taraxias's picture

That's what an ongoing massacre n Gaza, civil war in the Ukraine, and airplanes dropping out of the skies do to gives them an urge to head to the nearest mall and buy junk.

We are so fucked.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

bullshit from top to bottom...
mother fuckers broke as a fucking joke yet they confident they wont remain broke as a fucking joke cause all though they aint no fucking jobs "the sun will come out tomorrow..."

and of course the action in the only 2 forms of real money today is expected and stupid...
this country as i have said over and over again is doomed...

Normalcy Bias's picture

FORWARD COMRADES! Utopia is nearing!

dontgoforit's picture

When we reach Utopia, wake me up.  At that time we should proceed to D.C. and have us a real meeting of the minds.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Where are these consumers getting the cash to spend?  If it isn't from wages their "confidence" is fucking irrelevant.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

They are cofident they would buy things if they had money.

corporatewhore's picture

on a business anecdote level our sales are down 20% when compared to last July and summer is our busy season.

vacationing in northern Wisconsin recently saw a distinctive decrease in people eating out in restaurants.

Recovery Forward Comrades!

HardAssets's picture

Yep - you notice that everywhere.

Americans have been taught that shopping is a form of entertainment. But malls have spaces that remain unleased. There are fewer shoppers, and those that are there carry far fewer bags with far less new purchases.

I hear this second hand, as I dislike shopping and hate malls.

Kaiser Sousa's picture

exactly...tell me one fucking thing you can walk into Food For Less and walk out with CONFIDENCE...
all fucking bullshit and mirrors...
management of perspective economics.

km4's picture

35% of Americans Facing Debt Collectors

Omen IV's picture

after watching the MSM reporting on the Ukraine and selective information and metrics to blame Russia with supression of all other  contrary data - it is conceivable to me they are going into overdrive to manipulate ALL economic metrics as well

dontgoforit's picture

Did they transfer Lois Lerner to the other statist bureau?

Winston Churchill's picture

A little slow on the uptake there Omen.

Makes you wonder just how bad Q! was that they couldn't manipulate it positive.

My biz went  a little soft in Q2(after a record Q!), outside of my 0.01% clients.

They are still spending like drunken sailors, but I hate having all my eggs in one basket.

Seems everone else is broke ,or watching their pennies right now.

My survey is far more reliable than this BS. Surely nobody outside DC believes this