Consumer Confidence Explodes Higher To October 2007 Highs

Tyler Durden's picture


On the heels of UMich confidence tumbling to 4-month lows, the Conference Board's consumer confidence exploded higher to the highest since October 2007. This is the 3rd monthly rise in a row and the biggest beat in 13 months all led by a spike in future expectations to its highest since Feb 2011.


3 months up in a row and highest since Oct 2007


Still quite a divergence between government and non-government surveys...


The last time the conference board confidence diverged this much from UMich confidence was June 2007 and that did not end well...


Does this look like a confident set of survey respondents...

Plan To Buy In Next 6 Months:

  • Car 11.6% vs 12.2% in June
  • Home 4.4% vs 5.4% in June (lowest since Feb 2013)
  • Major Appliance 46.5% vs 50.4% in June

But Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board:

“Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2).


Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions, while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations.


Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

*  *  *

Odd that she would claim a brighter outlook for personal income... given the reality


Charts: Bloomberg

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Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:09 | 5017428 More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

HAHAHAHHAHAHA ....stop....I can't take it anymore.....The BLS is funnier than Rodney Dangerfield

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017452 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

It's a real 'confidence' game, isn't it?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:19 | 5017483 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Looks like the sheep are ready to be sheered once again.  This time TPTB will push things farther than in 2007...they'll wait longer and ramp things even higher just to try and sucker in even the most skeptical of the sheeple.

That's when they finally pull the rug out from everybody who isn't out of the banking system, out of paper, and who hold physical PM's. 

It will be a blood bath. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:26 | 5017515 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If I were Univeristy of Michigan, I'd get with the program before S&P downgrades you and the government files a lawsuit.  They are straying too far from the pre-programmed story and too close to truthiness.

By the way, 100 is "neutral".  So just realize that neither survey has made it as high as neutral in a VERY long time.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:53 | 5017667 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It looks like something happened at the beginning of the year. Since then the CC and Mich reports are at odds, one up and the other down. That almost never happened before but now it's every month.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:59 | 5017707 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i would think 99% of us here are more than confindent.....confident this will be the biggest shitstorm ever....

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:10 | 5017765 espirit
espirit's picture

Skittles Shitting Unicorn?

I want one.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:32 | 5017888 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

This number makes perfect sense, as it's a consumer confidence survey.

It's just that there's not nearly as many consumers as there used to be.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 12:01 | 5018054 MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

Just noise, or bull shit, useless.  By the way, what definition is being used for non-government and government institutions.  U of M is a cog in the machinery of big government.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:20 | 5017492 pods
pods's picture

Most of the guys who fought that pugilist-poet Mike Tyson early in his career probably were confident too.

Just like most drunks are confident that they can talk their way out of a ride in the back of a cop car.

Yet we have an actual government agency that measures confidence?

We should just call it the propoganda effect.

Like take the real state of things and subtract it from these "confidence" readings and call that the propaganda effect.


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017500 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

a dozen beers and a few hours sleeping in the sun is all that it takes to get it going...


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:23 | 5017504 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Instead of BLS, it should be BSL -

BullShit and Lies

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:00 | 5017712 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

Im confident,that ,


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017429 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

It's different this time.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:19 | 5017487 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

remember when I told you I was going to give you a raise?

you just keep on expecting brother...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:11 | 5017760 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Thanks to the fake recovery, I'm getting 20% of the raise I was promised last year. Boss man said "if the economy keeps recovering, I'll get some more of it next year!"

Why are all bosses clueless idiots? Natural selection, or the rose-colored glasses of cognitive dissonance?

God bless the Grand Facade, is all I can say.

Oh, and the student loan bubble.


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:33 | 5017898 highly debtful
highly debtful's picture

@ SD You're a mean man, you know that, don't you? You wouldn't happen to be a banker? Or Belgian?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017431 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Prepare for impact.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017455 Grande Tetons
Grande Tetons's picture

That asteroid will bounce of my umbrella quite nicely, I reckon. 

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:55 | 5017678 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

It's not aimed at you, just watch out for the ripples.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:10 | 5017434 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Nothing to see here, folks...  just wait for Yellen's instructions.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:11 | 5017435 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

allot of 2007'ish stuff happening

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017449 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

Yeah, but this time it's being 'managed' properly.  Outcomes to be entirely different, right Mr. Krugman?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017436 Loucleve
Loucleve's picture

They are obviously NOT surveying the 92 million that have dropped out of the workforce.

They know who not to csll (SNAP, WIC, etc)

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017461 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Well, this is great news. ZIRP has solved the "Financial Crisis", Yellen can announce interest rate normalization this afternoon and end all this "crisis" and "Emergency Fed Policy".

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:28 | 5017525 youngman
youngman's picture

I agree..either we are or we are not....and they all say we are back to to me ..the Fed is way behind the curve...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 11:24 | 5017613 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Everbody knows all of the numbers are Fanatasy, it won't matter until it does. Somebody will yell "fire!",  the new crisis "that nobody could have seen coming" will wipe out 5 years of fraud.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:34 | 5017551 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Do they survey those who can no longer pay cell phone or landline bills?

Do they notice the increasing number of retailers closing, or the empty storefronts that remain unleased for years ?

Does anyone believe anything said by a government representative today ?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:44 | 5017617 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

HardAssets  The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society.  (aka public relations company).

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017442 vyeung
vyeung's picture

Nothing like milking the retail before everything goes. Same MO everytime.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:12 | 5017444 Agent P
Agent P's picture

October 2007....what could possibly go wrong?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017445 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Govt surveys up up up! ... Private surveys down down down.

But they keep saying we are better than China.  Yeah, gotta be true.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017457 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture

All you gotta be is better than 2nd best, regardless of where that might really be.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:13 | 5017450 The Most Intere...
The Most Interesting Frog in the World's picture

Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions



Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017460 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Delusion knows no ceiling.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017463 jay28elle
jay28elle's picture


Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017474 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

They meant "Strong SNOW-job Growth" .... clearly.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017454 taraxias
taraxias's picture

That's what an ongoing massacre n Gaza, civil war in the Ukraine, and airplanes dropping out of the skies do to gives them an urge to head to the nearest mall and buy junk.

We are so fucked.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017456 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

bullshit from top to bottom...
mother fuckers broke as a fucking joke yet they confident they wont remain broke as a fucking joke cause all though they aint no fucking jobs "the sun will come out tomorrow..."

and of course the action in the only 2 forms of real money today is expected and stupid...
this country as i have said over and over again is doomed...

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017459 Normalcy Bias
Normalcy Bias's picture

FORWARD COMRADES! Utopia is nearing!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017469 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

When we reach Utopia, wake me up.  At that time we should proceed to D.C. and have us a real meeting of the minds.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:14 | 5017462 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Where are these consumers getting the cash to spend?  If it isn't from wages their "confidence" is fucking irrelevant.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017471 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

They are cofident they would buy things if they had money.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:22 | 5017498 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

on a business anecdote level our sales are down 20% when compared to last July and summer is our busy season.

vacationing in northern Wisconsin recently saw a distinctive decrease in people eating out in restaurants.

Recovery Forward Comrades!

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:46 | 5017625 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

Yep - you notice that everywhere.

Americans have been taught that shopping is a form of entertainment. But malls have spaces that remain unleased. There are fewer shoppers, and those that are there carry far fewer bags with far less new purchases.

I hear this second hand, as I dislike shopping and hate malls.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:18 | 5017479 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

exactly...tell me one fucking thing you can walk into Food For Less and walk out with CONFIDENCE...
all fucking bullshit and mirrors...
management of perspective economics.

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:15 | 5017465 km4
km4's picture

35% of Americans Facing Debt Collectors

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:16 | 5017466 Omen IV
Omen IV's picture

after watching the MSM reporting on the Ukraine and selective information and metrics to blame Russia with supression of all other  contrary data - it is conceivable to me they are going into overdrive to manipulate ALL economic metrics as well

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:17 | 5017475 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Did they transfer Lois Lerner to the other statist bureau?

Tue, 07/29/2014 - 10:27 | 5017521 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

A little slow on the uptake there Omen.

Makes you wonder just how bad Q! was that they couldn't manipulate it positive.

My biz went  a little soft in Q2(after a record Q!), outside of my 0.01% clients.

They are still spending like drunken sailors, but I hate having all my eggs in one basket.

Seems everone else is broke ,or watching their pennies right now.

My survey is far more reliable than this BS. Surely nobody outside DC believes this


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