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3 WTF Charts
Something doesn't add up here... (and rumors of heavy institutional selling is not helping)
Breadth is weak...
and flows are diverging...
The average Russell 2000 stock is -20% under its 52 week high
And High Yield credit is flashing bright red...
As Barclays Phil Solarz warns,
One of the things that sticks in my mind from 2007 (and I am NOT suggesting a 2007/2008 repeat here) is the fact that the credit markets moved before equity markets....and not just once, but three or four times through 2007 and 2008.
I recall looking at charts like the attached and thinking "why has this correlation broken down?"
Inevitably, the credit markets would be right, and the equity market would eventually catch up and re-establish the correlation.
The chart above shows (the inverse of) the junk-less-10 year spread vs the S&P. The tight correlation of the past 12 months (and actually, the last 3 years) has broken down this month.
Charts: JC O'Hara at FBN Securities, @Not_Jim_Cramer, Barclays
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Something didn't add up in 2011.
Since then the Financial System is simply a video game, controlled by Primary Dealers and NSA.
Tyler, the correlation between the HY Credit and the Russell maybe more correlated due to their higher beta, instead of using the S&P. Check and see if thats more relevant.
Obviously High Yield has it's head up its ass and needs to get with the program.
markets used to anricipate news but now they react to it. there is no fear and greed like the old days. doc put it aptly. we are witnessing the death of a currency
you guys still don't get it. The more high yield sells off the more yields rise and become more attractive and high yield gets bought. see how easy it is?
Fonz - that's great.
Where is the 'high yield'?
I want some of that.
I hope so
Terrible Thursday
Freaky Friday
Manic Monday
Twister Tuesday
Wicked Wednesday
Thank you for hoping with me
Yeah, but .gov told me that GDP is up 4%, that the world has never been more prosperous, nor has it ever been more peaceful, so everything must be all right.
Kumbayah, bitchez!
ekm1:
Something didn't add up in 2011.
Since then the Financial System is simply a video game, controlled by Primary Dealers and NSA.
--------------------------------------
The Financial System has been fucked up since before then...
But since Jan 2009... especially so.
The gross incompetency since then must be covered up at all costs.
New acronym time:
BTFHY
Why is anyone trying to make sense out of a nonsensical totally manipulated market. This whole thing is being orchestrated by the bankers to put the final nail in the coffin to rob EVERYBODY of all their wealth and make all us a permanent serf class with the elite controlling the top which is nothing new because as they say
"History repeats itself" it is no different this time. But in the end it WILL be time to bring out the Guillotines
Long guillotines...roll them out...the reason for which the wheel was invented...
Wait till ebola arrives
i'm a bear. and thats the last thing i want. even if it means stocks go to 2200. hoping for that so you can make money is disgusting. that being said, the (complete lack of) media coverage has gotten me a little worried you may be right. i've been stocking up food and water in the last few weeks.
There's that priceless picture of the guy on the beach, watching as the tsunami approaches. Fight, flight, or freeze.
option four - Fuck It
Ebola is so poorly transmissible it's hard to imagine that it would cause a plague in the US. It's people in direct contact (hello, doctors) and those that follow insanely dangerous customs like "washing the dead" who end up contracting it. I'm not worried. Stawks to the moon!
Yeah, it can't possibly spread to people who are fastidious about suiting up before treating and decontaminating after treating patients with the disease because they don't engage in the risky behaviours you describe ...
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/30/minnesota-widow-on-her-...
Uhhh? Never mind.
The downside to your argument is that the induction period is 21 days. So you have it, don't know it and symptoms hit three weeks later.
Can anyone count the physical human contact they have had in the last 3 weeks?
Exactly. One person, probably unaware of any problem, traveling through a couple of major airports, could take the thing world wide before anyone knew. Quarantine that.
My partner is a medical professional in the "trenches", so to speak. If you understand that Ebola is a virus, and that viruses mutate very easily, and that they are extremely cloying, yeah, this is truly some scary shit, right up there with airborne pulmonary tuberculosis. Add to this our current unregulated borders and we have the making of a true pandemic.
Long nitrile gloves, face masks and 2 gallon bleach sprayers.
Apparently, people are contagious to other people only after they have developed symptoms, and only via close contact. They say you're much more likely to get hit by a meteorite, which is fine with me, because I'd much, much rather get hit by a meteorite that go through the melt-down stage of ebola.
Yes. Precisely ZERO. I don't get out much. :-)
Well, since my wife and I have been together over 20 years and we have teenaged kids, I haven't had any "physical human contact" in a helluva lot longer than 3 weeks. Not complaining, mind you; just sayin'.
My neighbor told me a week ago she was leaving to Africa for a 3 months tour - she left that day. The doctors who contracted it and died may have taken full, almost, precautions. Poorly xmitable? Scary shit.
i read a blurb that said soros and gates were behind the ebola outbreak. another article says the locals in africa are stoning the doctors without borders claiming that wherever they go they leave sickness in their wake
The rudimentary human mind is constantly looking for easy answers and villains to blame for complicated, scary shit!!
Not to say, bad men aren't behind a lot of bad things, but seeding the world with diesese that could get out of control and kill their loved ones, is just a bad option, when starving, killing, and exploiting people is so much more controllable!!
Diesese was the original mass murder on this planet, even before those African doctors were walking upright, and it will be that, long after we have all succumb!!
Just get prepared, understand the reality of the situation the best you can, and hope for a little genetic luck if this bitch gets airborne!! Looking for the boogeyman to blame, is wasting time you could be preparing with!
That's a nice theory until you look at nuclear energy proliferation, pesticides, gmo food.
-is exactly what has been happenning abundantly for decades. Unless you think cancer rates rising to the epidemic level is just natural disease.
Actually cancer rates going up is because of an increase in life expectancies, given that it's virtually inevitable in anything that lives long enough.
of course it is the increase in life expectancy, after all thats what the gov tells us. nothing to do with alcohol consumption, diet, environment. /sarc
EAT LIES AND DIE
i dunno.... add a rockerfeller without borders killed in a plane crash on friday the thirteenth and the whole thing starts to sound creepy
Ebola = bullish for biotech. Yippee!
wait? I want my ebola, and I want it now... ebola sorta rhymes with obama...
they could give it out in detroit, those people cant resist anything free.
Spot on. Some time in early 2012, in an eureka moment, the guys in the NY FED and their preferred primary dealer/hedge fund partner perfected an algo/HFT based system that manipulates this thing in the exact direction they want - looks like they can even control the angle of ascent. It looks like it took them some years since they started tinkering with it, but it is now a manipulation beast.
One needs only to look at minute charts of key markets to know that it is everywhere, in indices and in futures. "Panic buying" that would make zero sense for anyone who is not a (1) manipulator or does not (2) have unlimited resources.
It will probably fail whenever volume picks up in the other direction. The problem is that there is no volume. In the absence of volume, whoever has this philosopher stone will obviously abuse it until stopped. There is no police to stop it.
so we are all good then right? I can go back to my full retard btfd mode?
Maybe, until assassinations start
This. Your post pretty much sums it up. If Michael Lewis wrote a book about this rigged market, the "real" rigging, not the bullshit rigging, I'd buy it.
Totally controlled from Rutherford, NJ.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/04/28/exclusive_meet_the_secr...
Civil war among oligarchs is who controls that building, those computers
No, that location is just the security department. That would be like the person at the front desk "controlling" a corporation.
aapl doubles in 2 years helps dia and spx a lot.
Pentagon ran the Financial War games Exercise in 2009 with Jim Rickards.
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/jim-rickards/world-playing-ou...
Something didn't add up on 911.
Correlation implies reality.
Ain't happenin'.
big moves n equity tend to begin in the credit markets
oh boy.
Time for QEULTRA®
Time for QEBRAWNDO®
I think that QEBRAWNDO® is the one where they print physical FRNs and spread them around instead of just using ones and zeros.
(It's got toilet paper. It's got what assholes like.)
QEYellen®
Nice branding. You've gotta give it some pizazz to sell it.
What kind of pizzas?
...as if any of these charts make any freaking diff, right? The 6 people that are trading the market to new highs are only doing so until Yellen tells them not to, withour regard to anything charts, history, fundamentals, etc., say.
Fundamentals?! Buahahahaha!
We don't need no stinkin' fundamentals! Vamanos!
correlations can break down for a brief period. and then, suddenly matter again. spx 1800? by then, credit will be near 1720 and stocks will catch down to that.
Why is he "not suggesting a 2007/2008 repeat here."????????? What the fuck else do these fuck-tards think is eventually going to happen? Obviously in the least it will be something very "rhyme-like" to 2007/8 and will have to be even worse given they have fixed nothing and destroyed everything even more by putting their foot on the gas and are speeding mach1 towards the fucking cliff dragging all of us behind them.
What's he suggesting then???? Unicorns, pixie dust, and more things from fairy tales to keep the sheeple mesmerized until their inevitable slaughter???
What a douche bag.
"Why is he "not suggesting a 2007/2008 repeat here."?????????"
Save_America1st, have you ever been to a re-education camp?
There is actually reason to not suggest a repeat just yet. I happen to think that something like that is likely, but as soon as reality starts to reassert itself by shooting a couple of those unicorns, the "market" manipulation might just be turned up a notch or ten. You and I, not beiing insiders, only get glimpses into how the fed will respond to another looming crisis.
One man's cliff is another man's speedbump. Maybe the author (who set forth the charts) thinks he's the financial world's equivalent to Evel Kinevel and the speedbump doesn't really scare him. Maybe, just maybe, he's right. If he is, we should all stop worrying about any perceived potential for economic chaos and focus more on our testosterone levels, chronic erectile dysfunction and whether or not we have too much back hair. God knows the world would be a better place.
Quit looking behind the curtain, there is nothing to see.
So +true+. 'Supply and Demand',,,and of course, the algo that makes it work.
you cant rely on correlations in this market as there is a big new player in it..the FED..they were not there in 2007...2008....this is a new game with new rules....and they change the rules every day..
Kind of like a schizophrenic.
This time, its different.
On a long enough timeline, it's never different.
330 pm pump begins.
If there are rumors of heavy institutional selling and at the same time there is the usual 3:30pm ramp than fuck it all. CB's are stepping in to buy, and we know they ain't gonna be bag holders.
USD will be the bagholder.
World will continue to avoid it faster and faster.
I don't know my man. Does not look that way. It may be fake but the market is working off of the 4% gdp number today. Not the ekm -4% print. The dollar is rising. Yields are rising. Stocks are levitating and taking a breather.
There is a truce in the derivative war between the banks. The Portugal mess is contained. The Argentenian mess seems to be a buying opp. No triple lehman on the horizon. Unless you see something that no one else sees....and is different from what you saw over a year ago when you trademarked "imminent"
So, what do you see?
I see assassinations.
I see dead people.
No really...Lots of them. Soon.
At the hands of these maniacs.
Bank lobby is no longer accepting new members into the money printing club.
Oligarchs left out of it will get control of those computers, one way or another, included bullets on heads
That's what history tells us
When ultra elite is in civil war, bullets and heads fly
is the ultra elite in a civil war? Or the MIC and Potus? Or MIC and Banking?
or did you mean this?
http://www.buzzfeed.com/elliewoodward/orlando-bloom-tried-to-punch-justi...
MIC and Bank lobby are in civil war
Mic wins, Mic always wins
MiC had contol of Fed until early 90s when they trusted banklobby.
Bank lobby backstabbed them now
Congress and white house are simply waiting to see who wins.
Obama is Buffett's man, banklobby's man
I think I'm going to upgrade to the .308
Institutionalize selling, it's all computers, it's the Fed, it's the guy in the cube next to me (who, btw, just sold his Apple stock).
It's all males, testosterone, and prostate glands.
Yet the Burrito Bubble continues (CMG, El Pollo Loco, etc) unabated.
On a lighter note, back to Gaza:
Russell Brand rips apart Hannity in new web tirade: 'Ken doll' 'terrorist' 'with his sheriff's badge':
http://mediaequalizer.com/brian-maloney/2014/07/russell-brand-tears-into...
Counting on all the Central Americans coming across the border...
Brand is on a roll.
his daily trews clips are fantastic:
https://www.youtube.com/user/russellbrand/videos?live_view=500&sort=dd&v...
The only thing that doesnt add up is anyones chart reading ability on this site. Its a bull market, bull channel, until it isn't anymore.
Learn to read a chart. Nothing else matters.
Charts are the only things that matter?
If that's the case then we're beyond fucked. There is no room in my pantry for charts.
Bean run = yes. Chart run = no.
The article is about so called divergence of chart information.
A chart is all that matters for my portfolio.
Dont like charts? Thats great!!! Keep reading the news! Keeping running scared before there is anything to run from.
That way I will keep buying and buying while everyone else is selling and buying gold.
And selling gold when everyone was yelling buy the pullback.
It does not matter that BO stinks. It does not matter than Hamas bombs Israel, it does not matter the polar ice caps are melting, NOTHING matters except the actual performace of the market, unless your not interested in that anywy.
Been long since the 2010 higher low and nothing says sell, yet.......
Of course, Zerohedge has been sell doom almost the entire bull run. Unfortunately, what is suppose to be an aggreator of financial, economic and business news has become an agregator of extremism.
It's always been a blog with opinions
I didn't junk you friend but it's all fake. Good luck!
Bullshit. ZH has never said sell. More like, exposed HFT's, delineated contradictions, championed liberty, waxed on the benefits of free and unfettered markets, and has schooled inceassantly on the asinine policies of the FED, and Keynesian economics. You sound like you're the only person in the market - as if your opinion is the only one that matters. Uh Uh fucker. Because judging by what you wrote, you actually believe there is a market - demonstrating unequivocally that you've learned nothing about what this site stands for. And just so we're clear - charts will not stop you from getting your ass handed to you - they are ex post provisions and in no way are a reliable indicator for when this shit show tanks. Sell jobs are anticipated by precisely the people you condemn - those that never played. So you watch that bull trend channel and then lets see you exit when it tanks - unscathed - for if you are as good as you say you are it begs the question - "why are you here?"
"You know, I know this steak doesn't exist. I know that when I put it in my mouth, the Matrix is telling my brain that it is juicy and delicious. After nine years, you know what I realize?
Ignorance is bliss."
Until reality kicks you in the ass....
By that time it is usually too late.
Did you ever check out Royal Rife Tom?
Go back to CNBC you troll.
but we want to catch the top tick!
Ahh,,,at last. 'Real Truth' about charting. Good job, Jim. <no sarc> :) arrow up
So...she was very attractive until the burrito fairy hit her and she blimpled out?
To the moon...
the burrito fairy hit her and she blimpled out
Literary gold. I'm going to have to use this in coversation. Thank you!
Charts in a centrally planned manipulated market...... Lol.
If its centrally planned and controlled, and you basing your decision on all available information, controlled for and planned for the government under the auspices of the NSA, posted here and elsewhere, and not looking at the only piece of information you cannot hide, price action and where the actual market price is, LOL to you my friend.
'up arrow' again, Jim. I've learned,,,learned that I was once ignorant, and lazy. Bad combination, when you try and trade for a living. For me it took 'more work'. I never gave up. I'm glad someone else also understands it is about 'Price'.
BTFWTF
I think you just summed up the past decade of financial markets. Well done.
Everybody's on vacation in the Bahamas.
"The only thing that doesnt add up is anyones chart reading ability on this site. Its a bull market, bull channel, until it isn't anymore"
Since when does a "bull" market require fed intervention? The only "bull" here is the bullshit coming from the feds and you
Signed,
Yellen is a super dirty cunt and true bull markets don't require counterfeited USDs and behind the scenes treasury buys by Belgium ala EuroClear to go up
On the Russell, if you adjust for dividends paid I'll bet it would just about fix it.
Everybody is dividend-mad now and most big companies now pay at least a nominal 1-2%, and most smaller companies in the Russell don't pay at all.
This thing refuses to hiccup even more than .3 percent down over the past few weeks. Everything is shrugged off. At the same time, the "good" news that used to send this fucker up 1 percent doesn't have the same effect to the upside either.
There does seem to be a pattern of seeling toward the end of the day....followed almost immediately by after hours levitation taking us through the next morning of up and down (starting from an elevated position).
It's like a critically dampened function that allows no appreciable oscillation. I guess if you have enough HFT platforms, tweaking enough market data points, you can smooth out any market corrections.
ETA: Regarding equities. How will "they" set pricing for every other market?
Washington DC has given the Bankers everything they have asked for since like 1998.
Effective Federal Funds Rate
2014-06: 0.10 Percent (+ see more)
Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, FEDFUNDS, Updated: 2014-07-10
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS
1) 1913 Federal Reserve gives away US Constitutional Powers to Bankers
2) 1971 after an expensive war, US Goes off of Gold Standard and makes it's way to an Oil Standard based on US Technology to Refine Oil and Saudi Agreement to only Accept US Dollars for their Oil
3) Privatized War, Use Fiat for War, Stimulate Weapons Industry by building Defenses against the USSR (Communist)
4) US Spy Agencies long before merged with Bankers, probably roots back to 1932 at least, but after Church Committee Hearings, Triparty Formed Spy Agencies, Bankers, and Big Oil merge with Big Defense Contractors.
5) Then they just need to Over Turn FDR & LBJ Acts, Worker Rights, Glass Steagal, Un-regulate more public banking and all of Private Banking, and Boom. Badda-Bing-Badda-Boom
Maybe anyway something like that.
There is another Theory that the Secret Military Societies like the Jesuits & Knights of Malta are behind all this (Skull & Bones answer to them).
Stocks & Commodities Pricing?
No Volume, Not Enough Buyers, we might as well put in Technocrats to figure it all out manually.
We'll end up with 400% Inflation on Food, Water, Power, Gas, Diesel, and anything that isn't nailed down.
But some people will still get promotions, salary increases, Bonuses Quarterly... Along with Regional Housing Collapses.
Reminds me of the time my kite string go caught by a truck on the freeway.
Last call!
Almost closing time
By now, the banksters and their government and corporate buddies have printed fiat oodles and purchased the vast majority of shares in medium to large public corporations. With so few shares in the hands of "regular folks", even fairly substantial sales by "regular folks" get lost in the noise of fiat buying.
Hence VIX stays low.
Hence interest rates stay low.
Hence stock markets climb higher.
Hence the markets stay calm... until the raging storm arrives.
When the storm arrives, the dumb wise guys (regular folks) will short stocks. But the federal reserve will just print faster, lend faster and easier, buy bonds and stocks even faster, crash all those short positions, and thereby fleece the regular folks yet again. The regular folks never learn... they continue to play in known rigged casinos no matter how many times they're cheated.
If there ever is a "debt jubilee", it will come after the central banks print hundreds of trillions, lend it to themselves and their allies, and buy ownership in every productive corporation on earth. Then when the jubilee happens, they will be official debt-free owners of almost everything of value.
Think I'm kidding?
It's too late to call a jubilee, methinks. Too much power has shifted from West to East, and the West no longer has sufficient authority to enforce a jubilee. The only way a jubilee works is if the folks calling for it (the West) are able to ram it down the creditor nation's (the East) collective throat. I don't know if that's realistic. They are trying to call it a "reset," which will likely result in the same thing. War.
+1 BTW
Scary. I find a ring of truth in that. These roosters think they have worked a little all a round the world. They are Crisis managers. Maybe they are good or addicted to Crisis like a "War Vet".
But the innocent are the ones who always pay the price.
Maybe this is the biggest bite taken in history. True. I don't think it matters how much they plan for this "world crisis coming up"... some of these guy will be caught and detained by the people that they think are guarding them or their escape.
Yes You need to reach a pact with the East and Goldman etc will broker for them. Those dumb asses (people) in the East still thinks it is East vs West and still not awaken to the fact that it is 1% vs 99%.
Yep, it's the Hacienda System, Hacienado System.
Everyone wants to be a "Patron'"
More like the Encomienda System:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encomienda
I agree 100% that it could happen. But there's a black swan circling out there somewhere. An I forgets to get dotted, a T forgets to get crossed. It will be something we never expect that blows the whole thing to pieces.
Perhaps you refer to the 2nd amendment?
Fucking racist credit markets.
I cracked the this economic code in July 1979. Nothing's changed in 100 years. We hit the regular seasonal inflection point last week and are now headed lower. The selloff will be stronger than the traditional seasonal pattern as evidenced by the rate-of-change in money flows (MVt). Buy bonds, inflation will decelerate into Dec.
As bonds default, anyone holding the wrong bonds, or baskets of bonds, will find that falling interest rates doesn't necessarily mean profits.
The pop culture stock markets are heading for a reality check. No easy money means no easy stock gains. That is all stocks care about. Easy money.
u guys think todays gdp number was rigged, wait until the month before the elections, they will report jobs added were 1,000,000 and unemployment is at 1 percent. and ppl will fucking believe it
The press and the people in Washington and NY will believe it. The rest of the country knows the reality from their personal experience and that of their friends and relatives.
While you all go into your fourth year of commentary like this it might be time to ponder a reflection instead of the same ass prediction type crap that ain't done nothing but lose money for those with a slacker oops I mean stacker mentality. Can I purchase a put on zerohedge? Short ZH all the way down punk ass bitchez!
Well, you have had some worries. You don't think you are perfect, I'm sure. I know long term investors who hung on to all or mostly all holdings through the 2008 crash in stocks. I don't know the details since I sold and never got back in to equities.
So, you are glossing over your experience. No, details?
I could see a short term trader getting back into the stocks after the collapse. But it is really only low risk if you are an insider who knows the inside strategy and the inside players.
Or you might be a long term investor who might commit hari cari in the next collapse.
U don't know about exponential debt growth, both in public spending & households? U don't know the GDP has to grow 5.4% each year to keep our credit rating since we have exponential public debt growth?
We R Europe. Our economic growth is over. Unless you like being called the new UK. UK avg wages 18K pounds. nice. UK avg household debt 200K pounds. nice.
see a problem with service economies? Maybe you are NOT US citizen?
That's what technical signals are for. The trend is your friend...
don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes bitchez