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ADP Tumbles From June Exuberance, Misses 3rd Of Last 4 Months
Following last month's exuberant explosion of job gains according to ADP (the most since Nov 2012), the ADP employment report shows jobs missing expectations at 218k (vs 230k) and tumbling from the 281k print in June. Curious, there were still two days in the month when ADP estimated the full month print, which is curious considering ADP staunchly refuses to provide its unadjusted numbers. This is the 3rd ADP miss in 4 months. Zandi helpful addition, "there's job growth everywhere" except as we noted - not as much as expected. Today's print appears the anti-goldilocks, not low enough to prompt the Fed to get more dovish and not high enough to suggest growth is anything like markets expect.
The breakdown:
By sector: So much for the manufcaturing renaissance (again), and all those exuberante PMI prints.
Some details:
Goods-producing employment rose by 16,000 jobs in July, down from 43,000 jobs gained in June. The construction industry added 12,000 jobs over the month, less than half last month’s gain. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in July, less than one-third the number of jobs added in June.
Service-providing employment rose by 202,000 jobs in July, down from 238,000 in June. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/ business services contributed 61,000 jobs in July, down from 79,000 in June. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 52,000, down slightly from June’s 56,000. The 9,000 new jobs added in financial activities was down 25% from last month’s number.
"Although down from June, the July jobs number marks the fourth straight month of employment gains above 200,000,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP.
Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The July employment gain was softer than June, but remains consistent with a steadily improving job market. At the current pace of job growth unemployment will quickly decline. Layoffs are still receding and hiring and job openings are picking up. If current trends continue, the economy will return to full employment by late 2016.”
Here are the key charts:
Where the jobs were:
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"Full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes fiat." - Yellen once again Gellin'
Zandi saya the number is GRRR...REAT!
Q2 GDP COMES IN AT PLUS 4% !!!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101878728
WTF!!
Looks like a great reason for the usual 8am monkey hammering of the paper PM's.
I would expect a sharp rebound back to the 1300 level and then steady until FOMC. My guess is it will be PM bullish, but they will smash the shit out of PM's to quell any optimism.
Q2 GDP...what a farce, ay? The fact that they "admit" Q1 was NEGATIVE 2.9, which really means around negative 5.9 to 6.0, are they really trying to make us believe there was a rebound of around plus 1% after that??? HAHAHA
unpossible and imbelievable ;-)
And even if there was a postivive gain it would barely be around 3%, so let's just say that. Well, since Q1 was actually somewhere around negative 6% and IF (big fat IF) Q2 was even 3%, you still have to factor in the horrible inflation. They only admit to 2% inflation, but it's really more close to 9%. Let's just say it's 6% though.
Going from -6% to -3% for the first half of the year you still have to factor in -6% inflation which puts GPD for the year to -9%.
And that's probably being way too kind with the numbers.
It's much lower than that.
Gold reaction is nimble at best
Last year, 97% of all jobs created were part-time. This year is no different:
“Over the last six months, of the net job creation, 97 percent of that is part-time work,” said Keith Hall, a senior researcher at George Mason University’s Mercatus Center quoted by McClatchy Washington Bureau. Hall was head of the US Bureau of Labor (BLS) Statistics from 2008 to 2012. (August 14 2013)
zabdi says" part time jobs are great: it's like you get a vacation every week, and have lots more time to shop, it's almost as bullish is being on food stamps and UE, almost"
It's anything to keep the stock buying game going. Besides it's an election year.
That's not enough jobs for the number of illegals coming across the border..
Bullish, simply because everything is these days...
I remain long black markets, cash under-the-table deals (which I see a lot of lately), and sharecropping.
This is bullish bitches... buy, buy, buy!
Quickest solution, fire everyone, then every data point after will be positive until we reach precipitaion again, then its wash, rinse, repeat.
85% of new jobs are burrito rollers, burger flippers, bedpan placers, and bankters in training
IOW, shit handlers
it was from the summer time snow.... a snow job
4% Q2 GDP announced, lol.
Translation: 1%
Just keep putting money on the table, boys - you never walk away from a heater.
Unless it's next to a can of gas.
Well, sure, right at the last minute you have to run like hell. Right up to that point tho, put it all out there. What's the worst that could happen?
I'm just having a hard time to realize "job growth" from these numbers.
Aren't you?