It's all over but the crying: having explained Argentina's position (i.e. not giving to so-called vulture funds), Economy Minister Kicilloff explains:
- *KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS NOT WILLING TO GIVE DELAY ON RULING
- *KICILLOF SAYS HARD TO BELIEVE ARGENTINA IN DEFAULT IF HAS FUNDS
- *KICILLOF SAYS ARGENTINA CAN'T COMPLY WITH COURT RULING
- *HOLDOUTS DIDN'T ACCEPT ARGENTINE OFFER: KICILLOF
As Bloomberg notes, by defaulting today, Argentina may trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion -- equal to all its foreign-currency reserves. Just remember that the last 2 days have seen 'smart money' buy Argentine bonds and stocks to all-time record highs.
If the overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated securities due 2033 isn’t paid by July 30, provisions in bond indentures known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately. The amount corresponds to Argentina’s debt issued in foreign currencies and governed by international laws.
In a default, even a temporary one, Argentina’s economy will contract and the odds of a crisis are high, according to Marcos Buscaglia, an economist at Bank of America Corp. Money demand will become unstable as Argentines scramble for dollars, causing the peso to slump, he wrote in a report today.
“Argentina’s current weak fiscal, monetary and external conditions make the probability of the situation spinning out of control quite high,” he wrote. “Argentina’s payment capacity should not be taken for granted if it defaults.”
- *ARGENTINA'S RUFO CLAUSE PROHIBITS MAKING BETTER OFFER: KICILLOF
- NEW YORK-ARGENTINA'S ECONOMY MINISTER KICILLOF REPEATEDLY CALLS HOLDOUT INVESTORS "VULTURE FUNDS
- KICILLOF SAYS HOLDOUTS WOULD REAP 300% PROFIT IN DEBT SWAP
- KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS WANT MORE AND WANT IT NOW
* * *
All those equity and bond gains - which hit an all time high - today, gone.
Finally, we aren't the only ones who are let down by today's anticlimatic development. Compare and contrast with this 2001 announcement when Argentina announced is last default: a far more exuberant affair.