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Argentina Defaults

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It's all over but the crying: having explained Argentina's position (i.e. not giving to so-called vulture funds), Economy Minister Kicilloff explains:

  • *KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS NOT WILLING TO GIVE DELAY ON RULING
  • *KICILLOF SAYS HARD TO BELIEVE ARGENTINA IN DEFAULT IF HAS FUNDS
  • *KICILLOF SAYS ARGENTINA CAN'T COMPLY WITH COURT RULING
  • *HOLDOUTS DIDN'T ACCEPT ARGENTINE OFFER: KICILLOF

As Bloomberg notes, by defaulting today, Argentina may trigger bondholder claims of as much as $29 billion -- equal to all its foreign-currency reserves. Just remember that the last 2 days have seen 'smart money' buy Argentine bonds and stocks to all-time record highs.

 

Some color on what next (via Bloomberg):

If the overdue interest on Argentina’s dollar-denominated securities due 2033 isn’t paid by July 30, provisions in bond indentures known as cross-default clauses would allow the nation’s other debt holders to also demand their money back immediately. The amount corresponds to Argentina’s debt issued in foreign currencies and governed by international laws.

 

In a default, even a temporary one, Argentina’s economy will contract and the odds of a crisis are high, according to Marcos Buscaglia, an economist at Bank of America Corp. Money demand will become unstable as Argentines scramble for dollars, causing the peso to slump, he wrote in a report today.

“Argentina’s current weak fiscal, monetary and external conditions make the probability of the situation spinning out of control quite high,” he wrote. “Argentina’s payment capacity should not be taken for granted if it defaults.”

  • *ARGENTINA'S RUFO CLAUSE PROHIBITS MAKING BETTER OFFER: KICILLOF
  • NEW YORK-ARGENTINA'S ECONOMY MINISTER KICILLOF REPEATEDLY CALLS HOLDOUT INVESTORS "VULTURE FUNDS
  • KICILLOF SAYS HOLDOUTS WOULD REAP 300% PROFIT IN DEBT SWAP
  • KICILLOF SAYS HEDGE FUNDS WANT MORE AND WANT IT NOW

*  *  *

All those equity and bond gains - which hit an all time high - today, gone.

Oops:

 

Finally, we aren't the only ones who are let down by today's anticlimatic development. Compare and contrast with this 2001 announcement when Argentina announced is last default: a far more exuberant affair.

 

 

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Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:21 | 5024674 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

oh, big surprise!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

GDP 4% - that fixes everything.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:24 | 5024690 ali-ali-al-qomfri
ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

Just wait Maradona and going to blame Messi for it, you know, not trying hard enough.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:27 | 5024695 falak pema
falak pema's picture

We will now see if in the case of Argentina the Brics can get their financial act together.

Also, if Mutti Merkel will make her play of proposing a deal with Putin on Ukraine; recognition of Crimean annexation against normalisation in rest of Ukraine and a global gas deal for EU. 

Things will come to a head in the next few months.

As Greenspan has just warned the US admin : there is no financial buffer space left for major unforseen defense spending ramp ups.

The financial crisis world wide can spiral in coming months on the backs of Gaza and Ukraine and Argentina. 

Its getting high stakes at the Putin/Obama poker table! 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:25 | 5024698 Robinhood
Robinhood's picture

Just remember that the last 2 days have seen 'smart money' buy Argentine bonds and stocks to all-time record highs.

Thank you Tyler! the best laugh I've had in a long time. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:26 | 5024703 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

dominoes

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:29 | 5024719 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Now everybody gets a reminder about why CDS are for SELLING, not BUYING. Wait for it - 'OK, this IS a default but its NOT a credit event'.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:29 | 5024723 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

And Andres Cantor upon hearing the news.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AMIrxx3gx8

Argentina 1

USA 0

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:31 | 5024727 JulienFR
JulienFR's picture

Russia have a new best friend 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:32 | 5024729 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Black Swan I: Portugal's Banco Espirito Santo

Black Swan II: Argentina Defaults

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:37 | 5024752 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

No, in 2008 maybe, but now the Central Bankers of the world have discovered a new and powerful mechanism for preventing disruption of the system - I think the technical term for it is 'lying and denying there's anything wrong'.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:41 | 5024783 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Yeah, they do.

It’s not just hedge funds that own Argentine bonds http://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-not-just-hedge-funds-that-own-argen...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:40 | 5024768 Joe Tierney
Joe Tierney's picture

Just rename the country to "Urgentuna" and tell all the creditors that the debtors 'went that-a-way'!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:28 | 5025489 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

It's a hop, skip and jump to Uruguay.  Bet there will lots of flow from Buenos Aires to Montevideo tomorrow.   Uruguay is where the wealth will run and hide.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:41 | 5024777 Little Boomer
Little Boomer's picture

Price controls on toilet paper should fix this,

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:41 | 5024782 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

Looks like they took the soccer loss a little hard?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:44 | 5024790 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

the maggots win again

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:45 | 5024796 Stockmonger
Stockmonger's picture

This won't happen--Paul Krugman has assured us that countries that have their own currency can't default.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:52 | 5024833 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

You forgot the 'Nobel Peace Prize winner .....' part!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:58 | 5024866 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

Argentina can't print dollars.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:43 | 5025293 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

Why not?i  or at least FRN's - competition for the Fed

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:24 | 5025474 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

They can't afford the green ink... Bankrupted, remember?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:30 | 5025505 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

...and Argentine Vice-President Amado Boudou is charged with running the printing presses...so no more printing allowed.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:36 | 5025539 Escrava Isaura
Escrava Isaura's picture

I think Argentina should be OK during the coming societal breakdown... but don't follow them as close as I should... so not sure about the Vice decisions.

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 01:53 | 5026297 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Yes, they have very good agriculture and land.  They can survive any economic collapse independently (except for war).

From 1860 to 1930 it was believed Argentina would become the United States of South America.  Their income level was close to both US and UK during those growth years.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:20 | 5025455 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Dolars.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:07 | 5024910 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

And he's right. Krugman is wrong about a lot of stuff. This isn't one of them.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:53 | 5024837 starman
starman's picture

Where's the beef?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:56 | 5024857 Millivanilli
Millivanilli's picture

The US would have defaulted a long fucking time ago it weren't for the unfettered money printing.

 

 

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:05 | 5024897 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

That's why the US will never default nor was it ever a possibility.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:57 | 5024858 nosoeawe
nosoeawe's picture

if you like your default, you can keep your default!

Signed,

Yellen the evil albino smurf is a cunt

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:27 | 5025490 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Evil albino smurf...

williambanzai7, report to the drawing room. williambanzai7 (you know what Christine would say about that 7, right)...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:28 | 5025491 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

williambanzai7, report to the drawing room. williambanzai7...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 18:59 | 5024859 JulienFR
JulienFR's picture

Strategy of the worst...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:01 | 5024875 royal
royal's picture

They have no choice but to default, otherwise they risk hyperinflating the Peso.

Defaulting is the right choice under the circumstances, and this is what needs to happen in a bunch of other countries, so that all this bad debt can be liquidated, and then countries can begin to make a true recovery.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:01 | 5024883 discopimp
discopimp's picture

All your pesos, I mean TP, are belongs to us

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:03 | 5024885 Sun and Moon
Sun and Moon's picture

Time for the holdouts to begin asset seizure proceedings on Argentine embassy and consulate buildings?

If the holdouts were really clever they would have loaded up on Argentine CDS before beginning court proceedings. Then they could make money regardless of the Argentine decision.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:04 | 5024893 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

Maybe they did?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:07 | 5024911 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Socialism does not work.  It never has, and it never will.  This will happen every single time from now until forever.  Can we please try something that is not completely fucking retarded now?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:44 | 5025049 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

It's in their DNA!

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 17:15 | 5029478 Smiley
Smiley's picture

Then they are destined to fail and turn to dust.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:08 | 5024915 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Why isnt gold soaring? Oh, thats right..fuggin Bizarro World!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:11 | 5024930 pachanguero
pachanguero's picture

It's for the children..........

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:16 | 5024951 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Around the globe banksters are hanging themselves. Let's REJOICE

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:21 | 5024952 nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

When you speak of defaults- let us go Alphabetically

America is the biggest ever defaulter in history.

With all data manipulated, S& P & Moody's as accomplices, with all Congress & Senate complicit it is shown as still credit worthy.

Now the problem is not US$29 billion- Argentina's default amount. The problem is what derivative bombs will be triggerred.

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:23 | 5024973 kurt
kurt's picture

Thank you Zioputians and The School of the Americas. How long can you keep it hard fucking the Argentinians? When will you get tired of that aged hole? Fuck you State Department. Fuck you all. Don't cry for me.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:27 | 5024986 Herdee
Herdee's picture

China's going to help them out soon.They take a certain percentage of gold,oil,gas production in exchange for a level of development.(like highways,hospitals,water treatment plants,shipyards etc.)They've been doing the same in Africa where the IMF and World Bank have basically raped the entire continent for decades.They're just going to have to switch over to selling to China.China will take every mineral in the ground that Argentina can produce.Just Chinese Currency though,no Dollars returned to Yankees anymore.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:43 | 5025045 potato
potato's picture

In May Exxon found the first shale in Argentina. Teach your kids Russian and Spanish, Gazprom is coming.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:34 | 5025015 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The idiot judge should take a bow.... Judges are as arrogant as (some) Presidents.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:45 | 5025047 neuronius
neuronius's picture

Wow, I've never seen an announcement like this before, seriously.  I was expecting that there would be boos and hisses in the parliament when the default was announced.  Everyone was cheering.  

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:44 | 5025048 neuronius
neuronius's picture

Wow, I've never seen an announcement like this before, seriously.  I was expecting that there would be boos and hisses in the parliament when the default was announced.  Everyone was cheering.  

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:46 | 5025051 NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

Vulture Funds being given the Sicilian Salute:

I'm lovin' it!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:55 | 5025090 Super Hans
Super Hans's picture

I heard that they got good steaks down there, and I'd love to fuck their leader!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:24 | 5025471 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

BTW...all their top cabinet looks like they came off the front page of Vogue.

Maybe they need Madonna or Lady Gaga to run things for a while down there until it blows over.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:55 | 5025091 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

More proof that government can only ever produce poverty, misery and death.

Any indication otherwise is temporary and an illusion.

Sat, 08/02/2014 - 20:03 | 5025094 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

It turns out the so-called smart money was not so smart after all.  It appears that they know very little (not smart) about Argentina, the law and history.  They were blinded by their own greed.  Serves them well.  Now, what about all those credit default swaps?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 19:55 | 5025095 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

why is no one asking who wrote the swaps on these Arg bonds?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:03 | 5025128 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

Hold on! I thought the GERMANS were in charge down there? Or is that southern Brazil I am thinking about? 

Hope they stick it to the banksters but good. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:04 | 5025134 Elliptico
Elliptico's picture

Tishman Speyer.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:09 | 5025147 Baby Eating Dingo22
Baby Eating Dingo22's picture

Futs "smashed"/"crushed"/"slammed" lower by .05%

99.95% of default was already baked in

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:23 | 5025217 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Yes we Can !

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:30 | 5025248 flyonmywall
flyonmywall's picture

Even vultures gotta eat sometime.

Guess it's not this time. Maybe they will finally learn that a horse skeleton has no meat on it.

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:37 | 5025269 jubber
jubber's picture

With the IBEX at 4year highs and Spanish bonds at an ATL you would expect a little turmoil in the Spanish market tomorrow??? they have never been shy in investing in dogshit and you would expect them to be top of the list of creditors and bondholders as well as the biggest shareholders in Argentine Banks...? this could also have repercussions if there is a major move on the Japnanese who hoovered up all these Spanish bonds in the last year, interesting to see what occurs...NO REACTION WHATSOVER sofar to Spanish futures

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:50 | 5025324 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to own one.

- William Black.

Pull the reserves/deposits and fail it! Shift all the reserves to untouchable overseas accounts. 

The infinite bailout mentality is failing, eventually the currency fails. Wait and watch Japan implode first.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:51 | 5025327 cobra1650
cobra1650's picture

fuck those hedge fund cunts....non-payment is better than a bullet in the head....I think 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 20:55 | 5025345 jubber
jubber's picture

another thought Spanish Banks  as Portugals biggest creditor will also be on the hook in any Espirito blow up....

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:09 | 5025414 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

And now the main hedge fund dick head is on King World News predicting fuckin social unrest

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2014/7/30_Bi....

He'll be the first one to get strung up.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 21:48 | 5025589 AgeOfJefferson
AgeOfJefferson's picture

Will have very little effect outside the country. It's been baked in for a while...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 22:04 | 5025652 Merca Visca
Merca Visca's picture

Think again: Argentina didn't default, it has paid all its commitments, the financial system was defaulted by Griesa.

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 03:46 | 5026393 barre-de-rire
barre-de-rire's picture

how ridiculous all this would be if argentina 'd won the world cup..... 

 

 

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