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Q2 GDP Surges 4%, Beats Estimates Driven By Inventories, Fixed Investment Spike; Historical Data Revised

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments ago the Commerce department reported Q2 GDP which blew estimates out of the water, printing at 4.0%, above the declining 3.0% consensus, as a result of a surge in Inventories and Fixed Investment, both of which added over 2.5% of the total print, while exports added another 1.23% to the GDP number. The full breakdown by component is shown below. 

As the BEA noted, "The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014."

Some other components:

The change in real private inventories added 1.66 percentage points to the second-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.16 percentage points from the first-quarter change.  Private businesses increased inventories $93.4 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $35.2 billion in the first quarter and $81.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013.

 

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the first.  Durable goods increased 14.0 percent, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 2.5 percent; it was unchanged in the first quarter. Services increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the first.

 

Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the first.  Investment in nonresidential structures increased 5.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.9 percent.  Investment in equipment increased 7.0 percent, in contrast to a  decrease of 1.0 percent.  Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.5 percent, compared with an increase of 4.6 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 7.5 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.3 percent.

 

Real exports of goods and services increased 9.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 9.2 percent in the first.  Real imports of goods and services increased 11.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.

 

What is interesting is that the Commerce Department announced that as a result of incomplete June data, the biggest components of the GDP beat, Inventories and Trade, were estimated. In other words, assume that future revisions of Q2 GDP will be lower, not higher, as the actual data comes in, and especially as the CapEx data, which contrary to the GDP report, has not rebounded.

 

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the first.  National defense increased 1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.0 percent.  Nondefense decreased 3.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.6 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 3.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent.

Speaking of revisions, today the BEA also released its annual revision of all data from 1999 to Q1 2014, which made last quarter's "harsh weather" -2.9% print a more palatable -2.1%, in the process throwing everyone's trendline calculations off as yet another GDP redefinition was implemented.

The chart of the original and revised data is shown below.

Here are some additional details via Bloomberg:

  • 2Q personal consumption up 2.5% vs est. up 1.9% (range 1.5%-2.9%); prior revised to 1.2% from 1%
  • Core PCE q/q 2% vs est. 1.9% (range 1.4%-2.3%)
  • Gross private investment up 17% in 2Q after falling 6.9% in 1Q
  • Residential up 7.5% after falling 5.3%
  • Purchases of durable goods jumped 14%, most since 3Q 2009
  • Corporate spending up 5.9% vs little changed q/q
  • Inventory accumulation added 1.7ppts to GDP

And the quarterly breakdown between the original and just revised data:

 

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Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:56 | 5021962 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

LOL!!!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021975 Pig Circus
Pig Circus's picture

If 2nd Q GDP is revised down by the same percentage as 1Q the final number will be -8.9%.

 

Joe The Forehead.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022018 nink
Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:05 | 5022037 max2205
max2205's picture

Is this an Onion article?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:07 | 5022041 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

no shit LMFAO

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:15 | 5022086 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Only two more quarters @ 4% growth and we'll actually break 2% growth for the full year.

So, show of hands, who bought the dip yesterday?

There has never been a better time to buy stawks.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:26 | 5022151 onewayticket2
onewayticket2's picture

it HAD to be over the (absolute value) decline last time....minus 3.9%....so +4% makes perfect sense.

 

now, the revisions can bring it back down.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:29 | 5022162 BurningFuld
BurningFuld's picture

They are just copying China now. Can we have some originality here!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:55 | 5022297 pods
pods's picture

Rumor has it we have outsouced all statistics to China now.

pods

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:13 | 5022397 666
666's picture

Durable goods will continue to do well as long as moar planes keep crashing and/or being shot down.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:31 | 5022460 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

I'll see your 4% and raise you 2%!  But, I reserve the right to take back my raise if you call because your original bet may be -1.0% lower if you get any unexpected facts slung in your face.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:04 | 5022634 Dollarmedes
Dollarmedes's picture

Do stock buybacks count as CapEx?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:06 | 5022644 Stackers
Stackers's picture

All Hail the Hockeystick !

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:13 | 5022689 Badabing
Badabing's picture

+4% did we just add hookers and blow to our GDP too?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:43 | 5022817 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

Since, in the 'new normal', this is actually a measure of nominal inflation, I think the number should be higher. Our actual economy is long dead. It just keeps flopping around on the table every time the Fed hits it with the paddles.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:50 | 5022839 walküre
walküre's picture

Inflation explains the increase in personal spending. People spend more but getting less for their money.

Well done, Ben Yellen.. job well done! Fuckers.

Thu, 07/31/2014 - 13:25 | 5027984 papaclop
papaclop's picture

You're right. But those stats have the same value as the crappy products China exports.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:32 | 5022182 toady
toady's picture

Exactly. A completely fabricated number to fit into the jigsaw puzzle TPTB are trying to piece together. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:44 | 5022242 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

97 days until election!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:11 | 5022386 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

See a doctor for elections lasting longer than 4 hours.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:35 | 5022474 danpos
danpos's picture

if quantitative easing should persist, consult a physician.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:51 | 5022846 Raging Debate
Raging Debate's picture

98 days until Q2 revision to -1.8 but see? Need two quarters of negative growth to call it a recession. But it isn't a depression anyways its a Great Recession!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 15:21 | 5023808 Chief Wonder Bread
Chief Wonder Bread's picture

Fill them dealer lots!!!

"As the economists Amir Sufi and Atif Mian point out in their new book "House of Debt," one of the big factors supporting overall retail spending in the U.S. since 2008 has been the expansion of auto credit. Sufi and Mian don't celebrate this fact -- they rightly see it as a symptom of broader secular stagnation in the U.S. economy.

How long can it last? With residual values faltering, and Fed rates likely to increase, demand for securities backed by bundled auto loans could soon take a hit. Without demand on the securitization side, the ever-expanding pool of auto credit could start to dry up.When the bubble pops, the effect won't simply come in the form of losses on the loans themselves. Rather, as repossessed vehicles flood the market, used vehicle values will drop to the point where they begin to lower new car demand. By juicing short-term sales, automakers and new-car dealers have been robbing from their own futures."

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-07-29/is-your-car-an-underwat...


Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:09 | 5022664 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Ima gonna buy steaks, instead of stocks, while I can still afford them and put em in the freezer!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:37 | 5022795 studfinder
studfinder's picture

Comrade...chocolate rations will be increased 10%.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:47 | 5022828 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

Double plus good.  I need some sort of pleasure after joining the anti-sex league.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:22 | 5022135 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Government Goalseeking?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:08 | 5022043 max2205
max2205's picture

What's the Vix on GDP?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:08 | 5022051 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Just keep them baffled with bullshit.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:15 | 5022088 Dick Buttkiss
Dick Buttkiss's picture

Bullshit is what GDP itself is, since it's just a measure of spending, regardless of what it's on.  It could all be on welfare and warfare (which, come to think of it, it almost is), and as long as it was more than the previous quarter, GDP would rise.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:24 | 5022139 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

We're printing money and spending it on the illegals.  O is actually a genius because with US manufacturing long gone, the only growth industry in the US is in processing, feeding, clothing, sheltering, innoculating, and teaching illegals.  Genius.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:51 | 5022277 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

One month of Fed market manipulation money would buy every illegal in the US an ivy league education.  Not saying it's not a problem - but in the grand scheme of things, it's a drop in the bucket.

Magician:  "Look over here!  Shiney!"

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022031 espirit
espirit's picture

I've just figured out that in the 'New Normal' the GDP actually means INFLATION.

Now it all makes sense.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022068 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

It's not like the official policy of the steward of the currency is perpetual debasement or anything.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:28 | 5022157 rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 No secret there.

Under-reporting the monetary inflation rate

inflates the reported GDP growth rate.

Add in some heuristic and hypothecated service and production and

VOILA !

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:56 | 5022302 espirit
espirit's picture

Simply put, the U.S. exports inflation and the GDP reflects that.

I knew I was good at 'something'.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022062 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Actually he is a five head, but we'll let it slide today.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:58 | 5021978 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Only China could fake better GDP.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:21 | 5022124 lester1
lester1's picture

If the economy doing so well why do we still need QE and ZIRP stilulus from the FED ?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:39 | 5022214 Cattender
Cattender's picture

thank God! We're Saved! (by Government Propaganda!) LOL!!!!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:59 | 5021963 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

In  a word, BULLSHIT...fake as fake can get..this country is so far gone, there's no coming back

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:13 | 5022073 iLiquid
iLiquid's picture

You mean BULLISH...?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:17 | 5022095 PlusTic
PlusTic's picture

everyone should flood the commerce dept with emails calling this a fraud:

TheSec@doc.gov

ping these prikks and let'em know we aint all sheeple!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:02 | 5022334 CH1
CH1's picture

flood the commerce dept with emails

C'mon, do you really think they give a shit about emails?

That game is over, my friend. Stop trying to play it. You're wasting your days.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:11 | 5022390 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Nobody gets up in the morning to go to work and spend all day lying.  They would just find another job.

This is a systemic issue.  Definitions and measurements are arranged to provide desired results.  No one has to lie.  They just have to agree with definitions, and once the definition is embedded in all documents, any new hire reads them and says "oh, okay, that's how I'll do my measurements."

So don't think the building is filled with liars.  They just "do their jobs".

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:19 | 5022426 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

There's truth to what you're saying, but don't think that any of these people could ever get better jobs....not in this economy.  The people who are making this shit up have the best jobs they are ever going to find right now.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:54 | 5022573 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There's truth in what you're saying, but systemic changes means you don't have to ask people to lie.

Everyone tolerates some things if they absolutely have to keep that job, but in this case no one steps in their face and says, I don't care what you measure, this is what you will report or you're fired.  That never has to happen.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:58 | 5021967 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I am Jacks lack of surprise.  The last print was a setup.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:53 | 5022284 toady
toady's picture

Interesting. I was thinking this print was a setup. Months from now it'll be revised to -2, then some one will realize we've had several quarters of - prints.

You know, like last time.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:14 | 5022399 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

But it will make for excellent political campaign fodder.  Recovery on, Wayne!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:12 | 5022682 toady
toady's picture

Recovery on Garth!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:57 | 5021969 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

The U.S and China are both engaging in bullshit wars as well as currency wars.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:58 | 5021972 1gunguy
1gunguy's picture

I  raise the BS flag.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:58 | 5021976 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The amplitude of this sine wave is getting out of hand.

 

tax collections are inconsistent with the earlier and this GDP print.

 

Once again, there is no "market".

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:13 | 5022395 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

LoPguy, do you have a good link for tax revs by month or quarter?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:38 | 5022491 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Went to the post office of my little village this past weekend, as I had to pay my $200 monthly payment for the $11K in federal income taxes that I owe from 2011.  I know the guy that works the counter well and most of the people from the village.  Long story short, I was telling Joe the Postman that he could put the IRS tax payment in the 'lost" mail section and he got a good laugh.  Next thin you know, the five other people in line were there for the same exact thing, paying past taxes from years ago on a payment plan.  I made a comment that if everyone was honest in conversations with others about their back taxes that they would find that almost everyone is in the same boat and that a simple rebellion of all of us no longer paying for the taxes would go a long way.

I guess the point is that the federal income taxes are barely trickling in right now.  I have a friend that works at the IRS and he said the entire call center in Cleveland is filled with over 200 people that are merely accepting incoming phone calls from us plebes setting up payment plans every single day. 

Unfortunately, I do not have chart porn to back this up. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:50 | 5022840 thamnosma
thamnosma's picture

There is so much reality that is not reported.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 14:24 | 5023517 Straw Dog
Straw Dog's picture

I owe MD State tax of $1100 from 2011. A short time back the legislature passed a law which says that if I do not clear back taxes I will be prohibited from re-licensing my car. The license runs out next month.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:59 | 5021977 Devils Advocate
Devils Advocate's picture

The economy is looking good, most likely we can cut QE to 0 today!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:01 | 5022009 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

clearly they can, and that is probably part of the plan.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:18 | 5022112 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Exactly what I was thinking and have been saying here that the Federal Reserve's greatest fear now is the U.S. dollar becoming worthless from losing its status as global currency.

So expect Yellen to announce a bigger than expected tapering of QE today.

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:39 | 5022207 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

As unethical as QE is, ZIRP is far far more criminal and destructive to productive capital.  They can cut QE.  They can't, however, let interest rates rise.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:17 | 5022415 pods
pods's picture

Interest rates rising=Bibi's bomb for TPTB (for real though)

pods

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:39 | 5022497 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

That's when they plunge the blade into the heart of the economy and finish the job.  Then the wars can begin in earnest.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:57 | 5022586 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I thought NIRP was the most criminal thing out there.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:59 | 5021980 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

yes yes yes, everything is fucking awesome in this country, im going to buy my yacht, cya guys soon

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:19 | 5022117 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Like your pun.

 

I am covering my ass. I suggest the same for everybody else. CYA.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:59 | 5021982 konputa
konputa's picture

That's nearly a 7% swing from one quarter (revised) to the next.  These guys are killing it.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:02 | 5022014 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

What?  You did not clearly see the boom in the economy where you are?

Well, neither did I.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:55 | 5022296 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Moribund sounds so much better than dead.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:15 | 5022666 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

That would actually imply a 10% swing if you consider the TRUE Q1 GDP which was about 3% LOWER than even their revised negative -2.9%.  So figure an actual -5.9/-6.0% and then they're trying to get anyone to believe we added +10% GDP in Q2 in order to hit +4.0%?????  Purely laughable. 

At best if we even had a positive GDP reversal for Q2 it would AT BEST be about +3.0% from where we were at -5.9% in Q1 (and I think that's stretching it).  However, that still means that from a more accurate Q1 of -5.9% we are still then actually only at a first half of the year GDP of NEGATIVE -2.9%.

That's more realistic than their bullshit +4.0% for Q2, but they needed exactly that in order to counteract the revised (and also false) Q1 of -2.9%...this puts them at +1.1% for the first half of the year.  They couldn't afford to tell the truth or it would be so bad today it might actually trigger the Black Swans we've all been waiting for and the avalanche would be unstoppable.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:16 | 5022096 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Quarterly growth on par with China... haha...

It's almost like these numbers are completely made up...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:32 | 5022462 Ms. Erable
Ms. Erable's picture

Made up? Please.

This realistic and better-than-expected print is obviously due to the outstanding improvement in the weather during Q2.

/s

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:16 | 5022408 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Cuz MMT works.  Damn it feels good to be a (fiat-printing) gangsta.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021984 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Based on the headline number it seems appropriate to be buying stawks here. However when you consider that it may be revised down later it seems prudent to buy bawnds as well.

Yup, stawks and bawnds. That's the way to go.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:19 | 5022109 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Let's play "Am I diversified?"

Do you own stawks?  Yes.

Do you own bawnds?  Yes.

Congratulations, Cramer says you are diversified!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021987 MeMongo
MeMongo's picture

It's all good!

Honest(:-(

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 08:59 | 5021988 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

By election time we'll be recording 10% q/q growth!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021991 thatthingcanfly
thatthingcanfly's picture

And the price of gold has not reacted. Does that not suggest that nobody believes the GDP report, which should have slammed gold prices if it were legit?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:05 | 5022032 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Give it a minute.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:49 | 5022267 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

I don't see the correlation. The correlation used to be with inflation, money printing, and debt. By my calculations, gold should be around 1900-2000 an oz. The 3 year manipulated bear market in gold continues.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 12:46 | 5023072 Okienomics
Okienomics's picture

Please share your calculations, I'd love to see an algorithm modeling the fair value of gold.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021993 agent default
agent default's picture

Is this where we play another round of spot the data distortion game again?  This government data fabrication business is just getting retarded.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:20 | 5022118 MidwestJester
MidwestJester's picture

Never go full retard.....TOO LATE!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:01 | 5021995 q99x2
q99x2's picture

My occupation as an entitlement recipient and BTFD'er has been secured. Long live the NWO. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021996 nink
nink's picture

All good so BTFD

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:01 | 5021997 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Simply stunning. We are approaching China in economic statistics manipulation.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5021998 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  By q-4 they'll have that q-1 GDP revised to +2.9%... What a complete fucking farce!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:01 | 5022000 smcapmachine
smcapmachine's picture

Fake? GFY! No one cares about your conspiracy theory. Futures are ripping and your index shorts are gettin smoked.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:01 | 5022013 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

lets just see how the day finishes....

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:06 | 5022038 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 What part of June was NOT finished so it was estimated, did you miss fucktard?

 What part of the BEA did it's annual revision dating back to 1999 did you miss marroon? Now go back to your mommies basement and fuck off!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:08 | 5022042 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Acutally, futures never even got back to yesterday's high before begining to fall back.  Given the 4% print.......hmmmmm, rather tepid I would say.  Remember the old WS saw..........bull markets end on good news, not bad.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022002 ekm1
ekm1's picture

 

 

 

MY GDP ESTIMATIONS FOR 2014

 

 

USA, -4%


CHINA, -8%


EU, -6%


GERMANY, -2%


CANADA, -2%


JAPAN, -5%


WORLD, -5%

 

All of it, due to Quantitative Easing and by design.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022034 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

No offense but I think your estimations are going to be a bit off.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:06 | 5022036 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Agree. That is my best case scenario

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:43 | 5022237 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

interesting, one number for the EU and one for Germany. did you take in account that the ECB's balance sheet is shrinking or is it all based on the FED's QE effects of the last years?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:45 | 5022253 ekm1
ekm1's picture

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20131031a.htm

 

Only Fed exists as of October 30th, 2013

 

QE has lead to collaterization of commodities and economy.

Commodities and energy not available for consumption, a lot of those used for finance gambling deal recyling QE money.

 

World Economy is going through energy starvation.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:31 | 5022442 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Spot on - since years my view - but why did those clowns need so many years to get to that point?

Just brainless clowns over there in DC?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 13:33 | 5023279 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

Too bad we'll never know if you're right.  These surely won't be the 'official' numbers that get released, even if they were the real numbers.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:53 | 5022285 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

If the respective govts used the correct GDP deflator data we would be a lot closer to those figures than we are.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:14 | 5022083 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

But those are negastive numbers?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:16 | 5022094 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Correct, all negative numbers

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:43 | 5022239 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I FIGURED IT OUT EKM1 !!! They are mistakenly taking the absolute value || of the GDP calculation result and publishing that !!!

All we have to do is let them know the error they are making and voilla , they can then publish the correct number !!!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:17 | 5022097 ekm1
ekm1's picture

All numbers are negative.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:20 | 5022125 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Is that when we get the Triple Lehmantm

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:24 | 5022145 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Triple Lehman occurs when Group of Oligarchs X (oil lobby, industrial lobby aided by military complex) OVERRUNS Group of Oligarchs Y (bank lobby, insurance lobby, pharma lobby)

 

Right now Bank lobby does not accept any new member into the group controlling printing press.

 

Hence, real bloodshed with daylight assassinations is not to be excluded.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:30 | 5022772 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

They just dropped the minus. Problem solved.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:00 | 5022003 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Simply cover for the fed to cut.  Nothing to see here move along, to be revised Much lower in the comming weeks.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:06 | 5022011 Catullus
Catullus's picture

US Power consumption numbers... for indsutrial end-use.... 

 

Might actually confirm this.

http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.cfm?t=epmt_5_02

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:35 | 5022189 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

The chart you referenced shows revenue from electricity sales since 2004.  Keep in mind that the price of electricity has surged substantially higher since 2004:

Average Price of Electricity Climbs to All-Time Record
July 29, 2014 - 2:20 PM

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/average-price-elec...

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 12:09 | 5022904 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Sorry. You're right.

Industrial consumption is flat yoy.

This GDP print is bullshit.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:52 | 5022282 American Dreams
American Dreams's picture

Nice try but your link is showing revenue not actual kwh.  Revenue could indeed be up, in fact most all businesses are and have been experiencing cosistent rate increases over the last several years. 

No more lies, no more lies

AD

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:58 | 5022597 viahj
viahj's picture

and i'm pretty sure that the NSA data farms are a huge portion of revenue growth, because they print their cash to pay for it, price doesn't matter to .gov

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022012 Hydesrevenge
Hydesrevenge's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHA...... Yeah Right.......Nothing to see here bitches, move along.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:12 | 5022016 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

Not only was GDP up 4%, but the govt reports Household Incomes are up 92% year over year!

 

Happy Days Are Here Again,

The Lies Are Deep And Thick Again,

You Just Close Your Eyes, Accept The End,

Happy Days Are Here Againnnnnn!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:02 | 5022019 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

BUY, BUY, BUY!! 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022023 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

 

UNfuckingBELIEVABLE........literally

 

My calculation

 

Real inflation:             -0.10  (at least)

Add back deflator          +.02

subtotal                        -.08

Stated GDP:                  +.04

subtotal Real GDP:         -.04

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:26 | 5022150 smacker
smacker's picture

Yeahbut ...isn't stated GDP a net figure already (ie: inflation adjusted)?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022024 TabakLover
TabakLover's picture

Anyone seen Beeks?  Beeks!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022025 oklaboy
oklaboy's picture

hahahahahaahahah spew spew spew hahahahahahah

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022026 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Tax refunds....

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022027 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

It's like the Tour De France when the winner is announced. Await the retrospective dope test results.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:03 | 5022028 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

why not 10%???
since we just makin shit up....

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:08 | 5022055 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

They need to hold on to the 10% for 4Q. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:38 | 5022492 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

Totally agree.

After final numbers of Q1 -2%, Q2 -2%, Q3 -2% they will need those Q4 +10%... ET VOILA! Recovery!!

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:04 | 5022029 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

These numbers match the mentality of the rodents in the WH.

 

50M Americans on foodstamps.  77M Americans in collections. 

 

Economy is expanding?  Really?

 

Credibility Yellen??

 

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:06 | 5022039 Boris D Blade
Boris D Blade's picture

Doubleplusgood!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:08 | 5022044 Toosday
Toosday's picture

Well that little manuever guarantees that there will not be a "recession" prior to the election.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022049 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

All that matters is the money hose, that it is being pinched off by the Fed, and the lack of collateral in the system.  This PR is cover for more taper.  And even if the GDP number is not a hoax, it really doesn't matter.  It is about easy money and nothing else.  Collateral is king.  There is only only type that stands alone, is not paper, and does not expire.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:09 | 5022056 NMFP
NMFP's picture

Knock Knock

Who's there?

Q2 GDP

Q2 GDP who?

Q2 GDP 4%

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:10 | 5022057 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue, (again)

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022069 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

In the modern world, there is never a good week to stop sniffing glue.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:10 | 5022058 Karl von Bahnhof
Karl von Bahnhof's picture

Lala lalala lalalalala

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:10 | 5022059 Thunder Muffin
Thunder Muffin's picture

Wait...rise in exports?

Who the hell is buying our exports?  How is that possible?  In isn't Russia, China, Europe, Latin America...maybe the FED is secretly buying our exports and adding them to a secret warehouse!?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:13 | 5022075 Irishcyclist
Irishcyclist's picture

Belgium.

All roads lead to Belgium.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022063 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

My thoughts?

 

LOL......NIGGA PLEASE!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:19 | 5022114 Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

perfectly put.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022065 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Thank God for inflation. I was worried that my savings were going to earn income and then the taxman would get me.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:11 | 5022072 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

Pure men of BS, we salute you!

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:13 | 5022074 The Carbonator
The Carbonator's picture

I am not shocked at all.

 

They had to give Obama and the Democrats a very Positive print in order to cover them for the elections.

 

No matter what happens the media needs cover to ensure that this administration never fails, even when it does.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:32 | 5022179 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Add me to the list of unshocked. Oblameo has that awful political hack Penny Pritzker running the Commerce Dept. She'll do anything to sustain the regime.

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:15 | 5022084 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Wi Tu Hy. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:16 | 5022098 Guitarbill
Guitarbill's picture

Does this mean we bring back "Mark-to-Market?"  Nah....

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:18 | 5022100 kowalli
kowalli's picture

total and absolute Bullshit

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:23 | 5022126 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Unfucking real. They pulled this same shit just before the 2012 election when they lowered the unemployment rate 1 month before the election. How do these fuckers live with themselves?

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:27 | 5022154 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

these fuckers don't lose a wink of sleep after doing this

 

the sad part is that there are not checks and balances in place to stop this shit from happening

 

this is the fkg garbage you see in China and Europe - now the US has this fkg cancer - fkg communist Barry

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:37 | 5022198 drchris
drchris's picture

Numbers are meaningless to the gerneal population anyway. 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 10:43 | 5022511 Bernoulli
Bernoulli's picture

All they are looking for in any anouncement is "beating" "consensus" estimations.

Q: "Was this GOOD?"

A: "Yes."

Uhm. Ok. So I BUY

A: "No"

Q: "Ok, so you say this was BAD?"

A: "Yes."

Uhm. Ok. Then the FED has my back. So I BUY

 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 11:04 | 5022633 viahj
viahj's picture

it's obvious that TPTB must maintain the status quo as these fake numbers once again protect encuments (of both parties). 

Wed, 07/30/2014 - 09:25 | 5022131 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I hope these numbers just keep getting better and better so the Fed. paints itself into a no win situation, and has to start raising rates... Watch how fast this house of cards falls when that happens.

  The usd is at 6month highs and bonds are flying. If this trend stays sustained for a protracted period of time q-3 gdp should print 8.00%. <sarc>

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