"Stability Breeds Instability", Or Why John Taylor Is Angry

Tyler Durden's picture

John Taylor of FX Concepts is angry.

Stability Breeds Instability

In three words our title describes one of the basic foundation blocks of Hyman Minsky's theories.

The idea is so straightforward, so logical that you can feel the process in your bones, yet no central bank, no finance minister, no head of state has ever publically recognized it. We analysts seem to know it is there as we all talk about gearing up to make a return in these low interest rate, low volatility times. We know our investments, the equities we buy, the bonds we choose are the ones that are levered even if we aren't. Some incredible percentage of US corporate bonds are covenant lite, more than twice as many, percentage wise than at any peak before a crash, but we still buy. How else can anyone make a return that will get clients, make enough to cover the retirement benefits our pension is committed to, or (at the bottom of it all) keep our jobs? We know we are walking further out a tapering diving board but we have to do it. Why don't we face facts and study the principles behind the recurrent crashes? Of course, one individual cannot buck the trend because he/she will lose their job, before the inevitable top.

One of my great-grandfathers was a family hero because he, as the manager of a mutual fund company was being sued for under-investing as the crash arrived in 1929. He was acquitted. Maybe this underlies my belief in Minsky's understanding of financial development and my crusading for the yin and yang of cycles. I even liked reading Hegel, Pareto, and Shumpeter in school. What is the matter with us? Why can't we - especially our financial leaders - get it? Too much demos? Are we ruled by the Sun, the NY Post, and the Roman circus?

Dropping back to earth from 10,000 meters - unfortunately, not high enough to be safe - the Japanese yen and the Dollar Index in general went wild this past week rising from comatose - straight lining almost - seemingly out of nowhere. It wasn't actually the Japanese industrial production coming in at minus 3.3% instead of the forecasted minus 1.2% that was such a surprise. We and many other analysts have been saying the Japanese economy was acting worse than it did in 1997 when they last hiked the sales tax, but the authorities everywhere said nothing, there seem to be no vigilantes of any sort. This is not the 1970's or the 1980's, we don't call an idiotic policy by its name (with money, that is). Zero Hedge can rant on but no one follows them or, more important, does a real analysis of the situation.

So now, Japan is collapsing. So what? In the summer of 1997, at exactly the same time-span after the hike as today, the yen started a 30% decline over the next year. That's not our forecast, but it is now two standard deviations from it. Any takers? Even if there are there are enough benchmark hungers to make the collapse a minor probability. What about Europe? Politics don't matter. I remember the German grand coalition, all of society agreed on the right course - except a few and there was hell to pay. That stability led to political instability. We would not buy French, Italian, Spanish and other 5- and 10-year paper at under US rates. What are they thinking? We know and so did Minsky. It will not end well.

h/t Ryan

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Thought Processor's picture



I'm gonna write a book called 'Waiting for the Crash'.


Cause this is takin for eva.

NotApplicable's picture

Well, I guess I can happily call myself a "no one."

ShorTed's picture

Chapter 36 - "Still Waiting"

Big Corked Boots's picture

This has been done before - think of Mark Twain's Innocents Abroad... "The Ascent of Vesuvius."

Mike in GA's picture

Volume 36 - Still Waiting

PartysOver's picture

I am going to shake a martini and watch the talking heads on cnbs.  Should be some great justification today.  Comedy hour.  Delusional reality. 

Winston Churchill's picture

Hope you are a speed writer, and its a short book.

It already happened in 2008 , just waiting on the coupe de grace.

eclectic syncretist's picture

S&P is in the woodshed today.  A couple more days like this and we'll be looking at 1800 monday afternoon.

SheepDog-One's picture

A couple more days like today and the 1% will be staring at domestic caviar in the face.....ew!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Ya, that.

Who cares about 1% down or 2% down.

Show me 80% down.  As if that will ever be allowed.

SheepDog-One's picture

Hey when you're all leveraged 50% a 2% down day wipes you out.

SheepDog-One's picture

Yea it's all just been on borrowed time since then, and all borrowed time runs out.

Dr. Engali's picture

Uhmmmm, if you've been alive for the last 14 years, you're living it.

NotApplicable's picture

I'm hardly surprised at the number of covenant lite bonds, given they are being used to suck capital out of unproductive companies while papering the books.

holgerdanske's picture

It's like watching paint dry!

We all know the outcome, but the wait is sooo boring!




actionjacksonbrownie's picture

You knew the rules before you started playing "the game". Why the diatribe?



Thought Processor's picture



One small flaw in that argument, which is:  They keep changing the rules.  It's the only way they've gotten away with all the crap that's been going on for the last 15 years.

actionjacksonbrownie's picture

The rules are not static - they've been changing constantly since 1913

Thought Processor's picture



I gave you an upvote for that.  Spot on.


Fucking FED.

Atomizer's picture

Downplaying the Holocaust -- Sulzberger & NY Times: Anna Blech at TED

Many are swimming like a turd to plug up a toilet of lies. The nearby plunger flushes the scum down the porcelain thone hole.

Imminent Collapse's picture

One way or another, this darkness has got to end - Grateful Dead

stinkhammer's picture

Please don't dominate the rap Jack, if you've nothing new to say

SheepDog-One's picture

Notice the financial media all 'no comment' when stawks are taking a big dump? Normally they're tripping over each other to tell us the DOW is up 10 or whatever.

Dr. Engali's picture

Financial media.... lol.  I think you meant to say Wall street propagandists.

SheepDog-One's picture

My W button was broken for a moment so I couldn't write Whores.

eclectic syncretist's picture

Hopefully they are wondering what to do about their margin calls lol.

Yen Cross's picture

    I might turn the blowhorn on for 30 seconds before the close, just to watch the idiots wipe the shit off their faces.

Winston Churchill's picture

Or nobody wants to hold overnight, and hits sell.

Its what used to happen when we had freeer markets.

So today is a test.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Don't do it, YC.

All you'll hear is "off the lows".

Yen Cross's picture

  Ya, you guys are probably right.

Dr. Engali's picture

El Preisdente Zero says stop being so angry all the time. So eat your peas John.

KingTut's picture

This is all according to plan.  We have the theory of economics that makes bankers richest and politicians most powerful.  Keynesianism ignores the banking system, debt and money.  This opens the door for bankersto exploit the entire economy and scoiety for their own purposes.  The lack of importance placed on debt allows politicians to borrow essentially any amount of money to buy votes and stay in power.

Keynesianism is just plain wrong, but it serves the people who the have greatest interest in which theory we use.  The Fed which is part of the banking system, will blacklist any economist that espouses anything different. Politicians don't understand economics and will accept anything that serves their needs.


Radical Marijuana's picture

Correct, KingTut!

The foundation of the "stability" is ENFORCED FRAUD! Of course, that necessarily drives inherent "instability," since the political economy depends upon the ability of violence to back up lies, because governments arose from the history of warfare, based on backing up deceits with destruction, while the same methods of organized crime where what captured control over the political processes, to create the current financial systems, which are all based on legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, which have innate contradictions, in that their violence can never make their lies become true.

The reasons how and why those social pyramid systems continue are that they were able to become globalized electronic frauds, backed by the threat of the force of atomic bombs. The collapse into chaos of those established systems would resolve the problems of runaway debt insanities with death insanities. The main reasons why the established systems are able to continue are that for them to fail would be more catastrophic than we can comprehend, while not enough sufficiently sane people have any practical ways to resolve those problems any better at the present time ...

I found it quite ironic that the article above asserted: "Zero Hedge can rant on but no one follows them or, more important, does a real analysis of the situation."  Since the entrenched established systems were built by thousands of years of warfare, with economics being an extension of that warfare, those systems of lies backed by violence are armoured to be able to continue to deliberately ignore all rational evidence and logical arguments. "A real analysis" of human civilization reveals that is a general energy system, which is best described as operating according to the principles and methods of organized crime.

Of course, there are no genuinely better resolutions of the problems outside of the basic understanding of human systems as general energy systems. However, the paradoxical ways that those actually developed made social success become based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds. Furthermore, the controlled opposition to those established systems also operates within the same frame of reference of false fundamental dichotomies, and therefore, proposes the same old-fashioned impossible ideals as the basis for bogus "solutions" to the problems.

The BASICS are that human realities are always necessarily organized lies operating robberies, in which all forms of private property are based on claims backed by coercions, with money being the most abstract form of that, which is measurement backed by murder. Those BASIC social facts have been pumped up and up by exponential progress in science and technology, still channeled through social pyramid systems based on sophisticated systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, since THE FOUNDATION IS ENFORCED FRAUDS.

The globalized systems of electronic frauds, backed by the force of atomic bombs, is the greatest of all ways of "stability breeding instability." However, the only theoretically possible better systems would have to be based upon better death controls, backing up better debt controls, in better combined murder/money systems. There is actually nothing less which is sufficiently comprehensive to address the integrated issues of human, industrial and natural evolutionary ecologies, with their continuum of artificial selection and natural selection. However, since all of the established systems are based upon enforced frauds, and the controlled opposition groups to that still operate within the same frame of reference, the possible paradigm shifts required to go through intellectual scientific revolutions in the understanding of politics, in order to have those apply to the monetary and military systems, are practically impossible to imagine. Since the established systems are based on the maximum possible deceits and frauds, and everyone who was relatively successful within those systems were relatively professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, their "success" was always another form of how there were runaway conditions whereby "stability breeds instability."

The only genuine basis upon which there could be better "stability" is on the basis of "a real analysis" which results in understanding that the only things that exist are the dynamic equilibria between different systems of organized lies operating robberies. "Stability" would necessarily be a better dynamic equilibria. "Instability" is the breakdown of the previous systems of dynamic equilibria. The article above rhetorically asked: "What is the matter with us? Why can't we - especially our financial leaders - get it?" The answers are due to the prolonged paradoxical ways that warfare was the oldest and best developed social science, whose success was based on backing up deceits with destruction, while economics was a social science like warfare, inasmuch as social success was based on backing up frauds with force, WHICH ANSWERS ARE THINGS WHICH THE ESTABLISHED SYSTEMS DELIBERATELY DENY, WHILE THEIR CONTROLLED OPPOSITION GROUPS ALSO ASSERT THAT THOSE SHOULD NOT EXIST.

On a deeper level, that is necessarily the way that human energy systems must operate, which is how and why they ended up actually operating in that way. However, the biggest bullies' bullshit social stories were able to prevail, by being the best at dishonesty, and backing that up with violence. Therefore, at the present time governments are the biggest form of organized crime, controlled by the best organized gangs of criminals, which currently happen to be the biggest gangsters, known as the banksters. "A real analysis" reveals those basic social facts, that the prolonged paradoxes of social successes based on deceits and frauds has driven civilization towards becoming more and more psychotically insane, since such social successes required maintaining attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance towards all the rational evidence and logical arguments which should play a central role in "a real analysis."

Relatively better analysis, such as found on Zero Hedge, compared to the more mainstream analysis, provides relatively more radical truths about the situation. However, nothing comes within light years of the deeper nature of the problems, when that does not go through the heart of the philosophy of science, to understand the magnitude of the errors there, with respect to our basic understanding of time and space, and therefore, our basic understanding of concepts such as entropy. Of course, human systems are manifestation of general energy systems, however, those are by and large misunderstood to the maximum degree possible. Therefore, we have a "money" system in which "money" can be made out of nothing, and return to nothing, as debts appear and disappear, despite that blatantly violating the basic laws of nature. Furthermore, we have a "money" system in which its measurements are perfectly backwards, because all of our ideas about measurement are pretty well perfectly backwards.

Power and information are based on subtracting parts from the whole. Therefore, all power and information have relative negative values. However, the biggest bullies' bullshit was able to dominate the philosophy of science so that an arbitrary minus sign was inserted into the entropy equations of thermodynamics and information theory, in order that measurements of power and information would result in relative positive numbers, instead of relative negative numbers. Actually, private property, and therefore, all money, as the most abstract expression of that, are relative negative values, based on backing up lies with violence, or enforcing frauds. Moreover, they must necessarily be that, as long as we perceive and define human beings as separate from their environment, which is the original subtraction, from which then flows all of the rest of the related relative robberies.

The world is naturally controlled by the best organized gangs, controlling the biggest gangs, of human beings which always necessarily live as robbers in their environment. The most labile components control the systems, and events flow along their path of least action: the best organized gang of criminals control civilization to follow the path of least morality The ways that they describe those social facts manifests as a Bizarro Mirror World, whereby everything is proportionately backwards and distorted. As the contradictions manifesting the struggle to back up bigger lies, with more violence, or enforce bigger frauds with more force, get bigger and BIGGER, those who are observing that runaway process get more worried, or more angry, or more depressed, by the trajectory that is apparently on: "stability breeding instability."

However, despite the on-coming severe social storms that are brewing on the horizon of history, and the building pressures towards the psychotic breakdowns of the money/murder systems, which are driving debt insanities towards death insanities, the basic flow of energy through human energy systems continues. The theoretically better resolutions of those situations, assuming "we" survive through those social storms and psychotic breakdowns, continue to be better understanding of human energy systems, which would enable political science which could operate better combined monetary and military systems. Obviously, the essential problems that presents now are the same as have always been present throughout history, regarding how human beings could operate better death controlling murder systems.

There is nothing less than that which is sufficient, which problem has been made extremely acute by advancing science and technology, enabling the weapons of mass destruction and mass surveillance which now exist, which attempt to keep the established enforced frauds going. In theory, there could be nothing less than profound  intellectual scientific revolutions which applied to politics, in order to cope with human systems being pumped up and up with advancing science and technology. However, any such changes would have to be based on moving through the false fundamental dichotomies, and related impossible ideals, which are the dualist ways of thinking which dominate the human mind, and therefore, the languages that we use, at the present time.

Meanwhile, all the efforts to maintain the established systems of enforced frauds, which were made during human history, continue to become situations whereby "stability breeds instability" on an astronomically amplified scale. What compounds that problem is that the controlled opposition groups supposed to be against those established systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, are not able and willing to embrace the paradoxes regarding how and why that must necessarily be the situation, and why the only genuinely better solutions are better dynamic equilibria between systems of organized lies operating robberies.

iluvbrunettes's picture

another fine piece, RM.  Please save me the trouble of searching out your posts and write a book , will ya?  ;-)

Radical Marijuana's picture

iluvbrunettes, I did write a couple of books, and self-published them, several decades ago: Letters Home from Oedipus & Megasynthesis. However, since then I have mainly been involved in political experiments and the court cases which resulted from those. I am still now stuck in the rut of doing the same things, through Canadian registered political Electoral District Associations.

I have all the raw material for more books, except that I no longer have any rational motivation to bother doing that. Since about 2008 my remaining level of irrational hope has worn down to nearly nothing. My main conclusions are that since the world IS controlled with lies backed by violence, there is no practical point in bothering to attempt to present my messages in any better form, since that will make no significant difference to the otherwise runaway situation of everything important getting worse, faster.

I merely write comments on Zero Hedge to amuse myself, and pass the time, by thinking out loud about things that various articles provoked me to respond to. However, I see no other worthwhile purpose beyond that to actually motivate me attempt to present my messages in the form of another book. (Of course, I do enjoy some of the feedback from my Zero Hedge posts.)

Boris D Blade's picture

RM, since I discovered your posts, I too would search for your latest comments. I think you have pretty much summed up the entire situation we find ourselves in. I find myself in complete agreement with all your thoughts, except perhaps on religion. Ive also never smoked any marijuana haha

Radical Marijuana's picture

Well, Boris D Blade, if you have never smoked any marijuana, then I presume you have not taken lots of stronger psychedelic drugs, like LSD, psylocibin and mescaline? Anyway, I am a relatively typical old hippie, in that I enjoyed going to university for a dozen years, taking a very wide variety of courses, during which time I also had hundreds of wild adventures with hallucinogenic drugs.

Since my basic education had originally been in sciences, such as mathematical physics, chemistry and biology, my hallucinations tended to be in those languages. As well, I was also inspired to study a lot of ancient mysticism, because I found that post-modernizing sciences converged back towards ancient mysticism. Anyway, therefore, I would expect that my thoughts on "religion" are relatively far outside of the box, so much so that my attempts to communicate them would easily tend to be misunderstood.


These days I have stopped consuming cannabis, and other stronger drugs, because I find that I no longer have the slightest shred of optimistic idealism left, in order to be able to enjoy those adventures in the ways that I used to be quite able to do when I was younger. Since about 2008, I have had the feeling that we are never going back to "normal" ... while the abnormal, or "new normal," does not look so good for most of the human species' future. When I was younger, I used to be able to indulge in "hope for change," while these days I am way too cynical about how that has become just another thing that was ripped off, and then sold back to people as a lie! Therefore, I find that I no longer enjoy taking drugs, because I no longer am able to become reasonably inspired ... In short, I stopped taking drugs because I no longer was able to enjoy them in the ways that I used to, when I was younger, and I still believed in there was some reasonable "hope for change."

But nevertheless, that was the history whereby I developed my kinds of thoughts about the topics regularly featured in Zero Hedge articles, that provoke me to write comments about ...

grekko's picture

"Politicians don't understand economics and will accept anything that serves their needs."


Serves their needs?  Or serves their Masters?


Wait until the crash, the day when the dog politicos start to bite their Master's hands.

S.M.T.U.Q.I.'s picture

90% of the population is getting poorer, and they have guns.  What could go wrong?

Yancey Ward's picture

When the world is mad, self-doubt is unavoidable.

q99x2's picture

Sucker ain't never been to a fight club. M'fer.

Somebody post that bitchez phone number.

BeetleBailey's picture

John Taylor is pissed because Jerry Rice got all the publicity and fame...simple.

The Econ Ideal's picture

Central Planners trying to fix instability breeds instability. 

world_debt_slave's picture

imo, John Taylor doesn't get mad, he gets even

JimS's picture

Every civil society that allows a small group of select individuals to define, create and regulate a society's money system is doomed to fail. Our current "Federal Reserve" banking system is totally corrupted. It is rotten to the core, and must be extinguished. It would be far better to have a 4th branch of government that strictly dealt with the money system (ie: the Continental Currency or Greenbacks), instead of entrusting this crucial most important issue to bankers. The same would apply to a Dictator/Monarch, or the high Priests of any religious sect.

honestann's picture

What is the matter with us? Why can't we - especially our financial leaders - get it? Too much demos? Are we ruled by the Sun, the NY Post, and the Roman circus?

Why don't they get it?  Duh!  Because they can steal ("earn") enough fiat to live a lifetime of luxury in each and every quarter they can artificially jigger and/or misrepresent reality.

They don't care they ruin the world... and destroy the effective organization of mankind (voluntary production and trade).  They don't care because they will live a life of luxury for the rest of their lives, and still be able to leave enough to their family to let them live their lives in luxury.

They are predators.  They only care where their next meal comes from.

Every human producer is their meal.  They know that.  But few producers do, at least not clearly enough.

Either human producers wake up and exterminate the predators, or the producers will eventually be consumed.  And the predators don't care.

damicol's picture

I think so many intelligent people feel it  without probably really understanding it all.

I try to understand it and have made real efforts to  see through it, but it is complex varied  and so corrupted by lies and false information, that in the end you can see clearly what is going on but are incapable of pinning down any single event unless you want to waste half your life doing it.

Fortunately there are some real people out there, usually slagged off branded as traitors or criminals  and then disappear bet blown up  murdered or locked away in solitary or just plain bribed.

But a greater understanding came too, in so far as I do not need or even want to know all the details.

 It is sufficient to be able to see the overall direction then you can have a guide on how to forecast where it leads, and what to do to  evade the outcomes.

The problem is that even as so many ZHers can see, no one is interested in listening.

You can lead a horse etc , but it still doesn't solve the problem so you I simply accept it as it is. War will come because apathy rules anyway,

So I figured out the only realistic way to deal with it is to effectively hide in the system  but never cooperate or deal with the system.

A bit like a moonwalk, everyone is going in one direction but at different speeds

 some are passing others at different rates  and  as they all face in the same direction no notices those going slower as they are left behind.

But what I do is  moonwalk in the opposite direction whilst facing the same way as everyone else.

No one notices you. Some people stand out and immediately get targeted, those are the ones facing a different direction.

Most end up in jail or worse.

I have businesses, I work hard, I employ people, but  i never file tax returns, I own no property in my name. I rent on short or longer term and move frequently, all my companies are based off shore, I never use banks  have no personal bank account and all cash comes from ATMs from cards issued overseas.

Even the cards are numbered and have no name on them.

I rent a car, It was bought by one of the offshore companies. I take no benefits whatsoever from any part of the system, I have no IRA no life insurance or  any other form of savings or investment. In my name.

Everything is off shore in the most benign jurisdiction I could find and I spend a lot of my time there.

I am lucky, the kind of business I do means I deal with people all across the US and Asia and Europe, but nothing  is centered where I was born.

I can handle  everything just as easily from a laptop in a hotel room anywhere in the world with internet connection.

Neighbors never ask questions, for the simple reason that I stay and live where there are very few neighbors, and take trouble to avoid them as far as possible, ans sow disinformation wherever i go.


You get the hang of it eventually and it works. The world is going to hell, of that I am totally convinced, the criminality and corruption has never been as bad in my entire life, theft by organized govt thugs called security agencies is all time highs.

I would not piss on a single one of the fuckers if his head was on fire.

Frankly I wouldn't waste piss on their babies heads if they were on fire too. I just do  not care anymore. My friends know me my family knows me, but they are never sure what I do  and it never comes up.

I have fictitious friends too, invented by me complete with a history, but they are overseas  and even the right judicious emails requesting a loan or whatever, or even a mail or two regarding staying at a house or hotel, just be be on the safe side.

Why own property in the US unless you are explicitly wanting to join the rat race to hell.

Own it offshore where its the least likely to get appropriated or taxes you death. There are plenty of places. The house owned by my company is offshore and  there are no local taxes or registration s needed to live in the house.

Even the services are all in the company name. There are still pockets around the world you can do that. No where in the west is that true any longer.

There are massive benefits and there are huge obstacles to start and a big learning curve.And then there are many drawbacks too.

 But you cant have everything. And personally I value my freedom and my total desire to be outside the system far more than  the perks of being part of the herd. Anytime

Everyone makes their choice, then you live with it. I made mine and never regretted it once. I feel sorry for those who can see the inevitable but lack the courage to do something about it. But that's their choice too. I do know dozens of people who do almost exactly as I do, they are out of the system but so invisible you wouldn't have a clue if you met them. I suspect their are thousands upon thousands now.

But the point is that you can abuse the scum on forums like this, but you know nothing is going to change, except on rare occasions someone gets interested and ask you for a few pointers, like how  to get business  offshore, but a good article nevertheless and so true.

So if you happen to agree with it then why are wasting time now, instead of doing something really positive and escaping the clutches of the criminal scum ruling your lives