This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Futures Tumble Again On Global Equity Weakness

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If yesterday's selloff catalysts were largely obvious, if long overdue, in the form of the record collapse of Espirito Santo coupled with the Argentina default, German companies warning vocally about Russian exposure, the ongoing geopolitical escalations, and topped off by a labor costs rising and concerns this can accelerate a hiking cycle, overnight's latest dump, which started in Europe and has carried over into US futures is less easily explained although yet another weak European PMI print across the board, with UK manufacturing growing at the slowest pace in a year in July as a cooling in new orders and output ended the first half’s "stellar growth spurt", probably didn't help.

This is how Goldman explained the latest manufacturing surveys out of Europe:

The Euro area final manufacturing PMI printed at 51.8 in July, 0.1pt below the Flash and the consensus estimate (Flash, Cons: 51.9). This implies a flat reading relative to the June print. The French component was revised up relative to the flash (+0.2pt), while the German component was revised down (-0.4pt). The July figure showed a loss of momentum in both Italy and Spain, with the manufacturing PMI easing 0.7pt in both countries (against a consensus expectation of around flat outcomes in July).

 

The Euro area aggregate Final manufacturing PMI printed at 51.8, 0.1pt below the July Flash owing to a considerable 0.4pt downward revision in Germany, outweighing a 0.2pt upward revision in France.

 

Relative to the June print, the Final July manufacturing PMI shows a 0.4pt increase in Germany (to 52.4) and a 0.4pt decline in France (to 47.8). The Italian manufacturing PMI fell by 0.7pt (to 51.9) against expectations of a stable reading (Cons: 52.5). The Italian PMI has eased 2pt since its recent peak in April, but otherwise remains close to or above the levels observed since the spring of 2011. Its Spanish counterpart also declined by 0.7pt (Cons: 54.5), but remains robust at a relatively high level of 53.9, close to its highest level since mid-2007. Developments outside the EMU4 were mixed: the Dutch PMI rose 1.2pt (to 53.5) while the Greek PMI declined 0.7pt (as in Spain/Italy) to 48.7. The Irish PMI ticked up 0.1pt and remains very solid at 55.4.

However, one can hardly blame largely unreliable "soft data" for what is rapidly becoming the biggest selloff in months and in reality what the market may be worried about is today's payroll number, due out in 90 minutes, which could lead to big Treasury jitters if it comes above the 230K expected: in fact, today is one of those days when horrible news would surely be great news for the momentum algos.

More importantly even than the noisy jobs number, the Fed will increasingly be looking at the quality composition of jobs (full time vs part time), and whether wages are growing: watch hourly earnings today as the FOMC have shifted towards wages as one of their main criteria for when to become more hawkish. The market is expecting this to stay at 0.2% M/M but the year-on-year number is tipped to increase to +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.0% previous).

Still, with futures down 0.6% at last check, it is worth noting that Treasurys are barely changed, as the great unrotation from stocks into bonds picks up and hence the great irony of any rate initiated sell off: should rates spike on growth/inflation concern, the concurrent equity selloff will once again push rates lower, and so on ad inf. Ain't central planning grand?

Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen lower across the board, with peripheral indices underperforming where Banco Espirito Santo (-6.47%) remained in focus and revived investor angst over the stability of the banking system. The broad based sell off saw DAX index fall to within a touching distance of the low printed in mid-April at 9166.53. Of note, front page of the WSJ reads 'hedge funds wager on a fall' saying that many Wall Street money managers who anticipated the US housing bubble see more trouble on the horizon. (WSJ)

Turning to overnight markets, Asian equities are trading lower as a carryover of what we saw yesterday. However, all major bourses are off their respective opening lows and S&P500 futures are up 0.22%. The Asia and Australian iTraxx indices are off the wides of around +4-5bp. Given the sharpness of the EM selloff yesterday, Indonesian USD sovereign bonds have sold off 10bp but there has been some reported buying at the lows. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI was better than consensus estimates (51.7 vs 51.4) and this is also helping risk sentiment recover a bit through the session.

Today’s calendar starts with the final European PMIs this morning. But today’s tone will be largely set by how non-farm payrolls print. The data is due at 1:30pm London. At the same time as payrolls we’ll also get the June personal income/spending numbers which will be accompanied by the PCE data – the June PCE was included in Wednesday’s Q2 GDP data. Following on from all that, we have the non-manufacturing PMI. On the corporate reporting calendar, AXA, ArcelorMittal, SocGen and Chevron will be reporting earnings today.

Bulletin Headline Summary from Ransquawk and Bloomberg

  • Yesterday’s slide on Wall Street sent jitters through European stocks, with poor earnings and mixed European PMIs eroding sentiment further
  • Core and peripheral fixed income markets also fell as support seen earlier in the week from coupon payments, redemptions and month-end extensions faded
  • Volumes remain quiet ahead of today’s Nonfarm Payrolls, expected at 230K, with the unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.1%
  • Treasuries decline with global stocks before report forecast to show U.S. economy added 230k jobs in July, with unemployment rate holding at 6.1%.
  • U.K. manufacturing grew at the slowest pace in a year in July as a cooling in new orders and output ended the first half’s “stellar growth spurt,” Markit Economics said
  • Euro zone final manufacturing PMI unchanged at 51.8 in July from preliminary 51.9 reading; index is unchanged “only thanks to an improvement in Germany while manufacturing activity in Spain, Italy and France seems to be weakening,” according to Bloomberg Economics
  • The euro-area units of OAO Sberbank and VTB Group, two Russian lenders targeted by a fresh round of EU sanctions, can maintain access to ECB funding as long as they don’t channel the funds back home
  • Across much of the euro area, young adults are worst hit by wage deflation or stagnation, which increasingly is seen as a threat to the 18-member bloc’s nascent economic recovery
  • China’s manufacturing expanded in July at the fastest pace in more than two years, signaling a pickup in economic     growth is strengthening amid government support policies
  • RBS, Britain’s largest state-owned lender, said it’s cutting lending to Russian companies, following European banks including Societe Generale SA and Natixis SA in complying with the latest round of sanctions over Ukraine
  • Fighting erupted in Gaza just hours after a three-day cease- fire cobbled together by John Kerry began, with Israel and Hamas accusing each other of responsibility for the breach
  • Sovereign yields higher. Euro Stoxx Banks falls 1.4%; down by 3.8% on the week. Asian and European  equities, U.S. stock futures fall. WTI crude and copper lower, gold gains

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, July, est. 230k (prior 288k)
    • Change in Private Payrolls, July, est. 227k (prior 262k)
    • Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, July, est. 15k (prior 16k)
    • Unemployment Rate, July, est. 6.1% (prior 6.1%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings m/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
    • Average Hourly Earnings y/y, July, est. 2.2% (prior 2%)
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, July, est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
    • Change in Household Employment, July (prior 407k)
    • Underemployment Rate, July (prior 12.1%)
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, July (prior 62.8%)
  • 8:30am: Personal Income, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
    • Personal Spending, June, est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%)
    • PCE Deflator m/m, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%)
    • PCE Deflator y/y, June, est. 1.7% (prior 1.8%)
    • PCE Core m/m, June, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
    • PCE Core y/y, June, est. 1.4% (prior 1.5%)
  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, July, est. 56.5 (prior 56.3)
  • 9:55am: University of Michigan Confidence, July final, est. 81.8 (prior 81.3)
  • 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, July, est. 56 (prior 55.3); ISM Prices Paid, July, est. 58 (prior 58)
  • 10:00am: Construction Spending m/m, June, est. 0.5% (prior 0.1%)
  • TBA: Domestic Vehicle Sales, July, est. 13.2m (prior 13.25m)
  • TBA: Total Vehicle Sales, July, est. 16.79m (prior 16.92m)

FIXED INCOME

Bunds failed to benefit from lower stocks and traded lower, albeit marginally, as the support from month-end and also coupon/redemption related flow which was evident throughout the week waned. PO/GE 10y spread widened by almost 10bps as concerns over the beleaguered lender Banco Espirito Santo (-6.47%) raised fears that state aid may be needed to shore up capital base and in turn undermine country's financial position.

EQUITIES

Heading into the North American open, stocks in Europe are seen lower across the board, with peripheral indices underperforming where Banco Espirito Santo (-6.47%) remained in focus and revived investor angst over the stability of the banking system. The broad based sell off saw DAX index fall to within a touching distance of the low printed in mid-April at 9166.53. Of note, front page of the WSJ reads 'hedge funds wager on a fall' saying that many Wall Street money managers who anticipated the US housing bubble see more trouble on the horizon. (WSJ)

FX

GBP/USD plunged below the 100DMA after UK Manufacturing PMI (55.4 vs. Exp. 57.2) fell to the lowest level in a year, lifting EUR/GBP to two week highs. EUR/USD has been somewhat supported, with option barrier interest ahead of 1.3300 and 1.3350 keeping a floor under the pair. USD/JPY remains higher despite a poor showing from the Nikkei 225 overnight, as higher treasury yields prompted favourable rate differential flows.

COMMODITIES

WTI and Brent crude futures have echoed the trend seen in stocks, with refinery outages in Kansas also limiting crude demand from Cushing, Oklahoma. Spot gold has languished close to recent lows, with the USD still remaining close to 10-month highs and keeping pressure on base metals alongside market expectations of a sooner-than-expected rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

* * *

Finally, DB's Jim Reid completes the overnight recap

So today's payroll number comes on the back of a turbulent couple of days for markets after a potent cocktail of a stronger US GDP print, higher yields, a slew of weaker earnings, the aftermath of the Argentinean default and more concerns over Banco Espirito Santo. DB's Joe LaVorgna has been at the bullish end of the street for some time now and expects payrolls of 250k and a 0.1ppt drop to 6.0% in the unemployment rate today. The market is at 230k and 6.1% respectively. It’s fair to say that given the nervousness, a very strong number could create chaos in the rates, credit and EM markets and cause collateral damage in equities. Equally a more tame release could help markets regain some poise in what is usually the most illiquid month in a structurally illiquid market for many asset classes. It’s also worth watching the trend in hourly earnings today as the FOMC have shifted towards wages as one of their main criteria for when to become more hawkish. The market is expecting this to stay at 0.2% M/M but the year-on-year number is tipped to increase to +2.2% Y/Y (vs 2.0% previous).

The abovementioned cocktail of concerns resulted in the S&P500 (-2.00%) notching up its largest fall in three-months yesterday. It was ironic that US treasuries closed flat on the day, given that the sell-off originated from higher yields yesterday as markets began to question the path of Fed policy. Though yields were virtually unchanged at the close this masked a fair bit of intraday volatility. Indeed 10yr yields traded up as high as 2.61% (or +6bp on the day) following a stronger than expected Employment Cost Index print (0.7% QoQ vs 0.5% expected). From that point, we saw a sharp rally back to unchanged-on-the-day helped by the shock 10pt plunge in the Chicago PMI (52.6 vs 63.0 consensus). No doubt the continued sell down of equities & credit eventually prompted a flight to treasuries in the second half of the session. However, there was also market chatter of large duration extensions into month end, which may have driven the rally in rates back to unchanged. After a period of low volatility, 10yr UST yields have now traded in 16bp range over the last two and a half days. It was also interesting to see that despite the rally in treasuries and a 28% spike in VIX, this was not accompanied by a rise in gold prices which finished at the lows for the day (-1.06%).

Compared to the rates market, the price action in equities and credit was certainly more linear. The Dow (-1.88%) and S&P500 both closed at the lows, on volumes which were 30% higher than the 15-day moving average. Credit sold off across cash & index, and finished at the wides. The sharpest moves were in Xover (264.25bp, +17.625bp) and Eur financial senior (73.25bp, +5.375bp) – the latter driven by renewed concerns around BES and also some disappointing earnings from the likes of BNP. The CDX HY index added 20bp in spread terms to 344bp.

On the topic of HY, we’ve written for a while now that US HY fund flows are worth watching. The latest weekly flow data from EPFR has indicated that US HY funds suffered -$3.72bn of outflows in the week to July 30. This represents 1.2% of AUM and is the fourth consecutive weekly outflow bringing YTD cumulative flows to negative territory (-0.5% of AUM). During these four weeks, the weekly outflows have gotten progressively higher. There was -$421m in flows the week to July 9th, -$2.34bn in the week to July 16th, and -$3.67bn in the week to July 23rd. The latest weekly outflows of -$3.72bn obviously doesn't capture what happened in the last 24 hours but if we use the largest US HY ETF (iShares iBoxx HY) as an imperfect proxy, that ETF recorded -$363m of outflows yesterday according to Bloomberg. This is the largest one day outflow since February 3rd – on that day the S&P500 fell 2.28%. The iShares iBoxx HY ETF is currently trading at a discount of 0.58% to its NAV which is the largest discount since August 2013. Across the Atlantic, it’s worth noting that Western European HY fund flows have held up well so far with the supportive backdrop of the ECB and still low inflation (we learnt yesterday that July core CPI was 0.8%, unchanged from June). However, Western Europe HY funds registered an outflow of -$297m (or -0.7% of AUM) in the week to July 30th, the largest weekly outflow since June 2013. We think the flows out of the HY should slow down soon unless rates continue to rise, but watch this space.

On a more micro level, there were a number of company-specific stories which exacerbated Thursday’s selloff. On a day where nerves were already heightened, any bad news was quickly and severely punished by markets. An example of this was Adidas which fell 15.4% after the company issued a large profit warning. Amongst its commentary, the sportswear company noted that it was being hit by the downturn in Russia and it would respond by accelerating the closure of its Russian stores because of increasing risks to consumer spending. Volkswagen (-0.37%) reported earnings yesterday and said that Russian sales had declined 8% yoy in 1H14 (FT). In what is likely going to concern policymakers, Adidas and Volkswagen join Siemens, Metro and Royal Dutch Shell in warning about the actual or potential impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict. The EU’s announcement that it will add Russia’s Sberbank, VTB Group and OAO Gazprombank to its sanction list is unlikely to help. Another micro-level story was Banco Espirito Santo, which fell 42% after resuming trading post its 1H14 results. This together with BNP’s result yesterday set a negative tone for European financials (-1.6%) who underperformed the broader Stoxx600 (-1.3%).

Turning to overnight markets, Asian equities are trading lower as a carryover of what we saw yesterday. However, all major bourses are off their respective opening lows and S&P500 futures are up 0.22%. The Asia and Australian iTraxx indices are off the wides of around +4-5bp. Given the sharpness of the EM selloff yesterday, Indonesian USD sovereign bonds have sold off 10bp but there has been some reported buying at the lows. The official Chinese manufacturing PMI was better than consensus estimates (51.7 vs 51.4) and this is also helping risk sentiment recover a bit through the session.

Today’s calendar starts with the final European PMIs this morning. But today’s tone will be largely set by how non-farm payrolls print. The data is due at 1:30pm London. At the same time as payrolls we’ll also get the June personal income/spending numbers which will be accompanied by the PCE data – the June PCE was included in Wednesday’s Q2 GDP data. Following on from all that, we have the non-manufacturing PMI. On the corporate reporting calendar, AXA, ArcelorMittal, SocGen and Chevron will be reporting earnings today.

A busy end to a challenging week

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:09 | 5031763 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

A few days under the 50DMA and then up we go. I don't need to say it again.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:13 | 5031775 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Time to breakout the Spiderman towels....

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:16 | 5031786 Tabarnaque
Tabarnaque's picture

It is crazy, BES (the second biggest Portuguese bank) goes bankrupt, Argentina is defaulting, Russia is sanctioned in the banking sector, which will also affect European banks, Gaza is going full retard with the Zionazis committing mass murder and unlimited wreckage, IS is still a major threat in Iraq, Libya is falling in complete chaos as the Hegemon are quickly evacuating their embassies, Ebola is threatening to spread around the entire planet (and no airport in the developed world is prepared to handle that), Japan's industrial production and personal consumption are collapsing at a rate never seen before, The BRICS are speeding up their move away from the USD and the fascist Anglo-American financial system, the Ukrainian crisis which threatens to initiate a WWIII, and I could keep going on like this.

 

Maybe yesterday's action was indeed the start of the great correction that many have been expecting. I bet that the Hegemon will do everything in their power to try to hold it together one more time, just a little longer.

Keep stacking that shiny yellow metal because it will soon prove to be extremely useful.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:22 | 5031801 blabam
blabam's picture

All i could get out of your post was BTMFD! 

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:32 | 5031824 max2205
max2205's picture

Buy the clift

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:14 | 5031921 SunRise
SunRise's picture

Evidently, you were going to spell cliff correctly, but accidently stepped off of it. 

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:25 | 5031804 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Those downward votes must be people that put on short positions at close yesterday.  While I don't agree that the 50DMA is the line in the sand (I say 200DMA), I do agree that this shit will skyrocket back up to YTD unch, especially with all these fresh short positions to be milked into covering.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:42 | 5031841 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Agree, the ponzi won't stop now. It has at least another 5 years to go, not at these levels off course and on a constant decline but the markets won't correct 50 to 60%.
First, there's a lot less sppoky retail investors in this market.
Second, the fed owns half of the market
Third, the computers will keep the stocks from dropping even if there's no real buyers.

And that will continue untill every bank that belongs to the club will have unwound their derivatives or sold them.

Than it will crash. The overloards have spoken.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:43 | 5031843 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Moving averages as a trend indicator are a fiction, because their only validation is the circular one that " many traders believe in them" . In addition there are at least 4 methods of calculating MAs that yield different results. And of course someone swears by the "43 1/2 day exponential median harmonic MA" because "in extensive retrotesting it predicted trend reversals correctly 43.5% of the time compared to 42.1 % with the 50 day arithmetic MA" lol

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:39 | 5031835 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"...overnight's latest dump, which started in Europe and has carried over into US futures is less easily explained..."

Explanation: Europe is going on vacation in August, and the Euro-banksters do not want to be wired to their electronic devices checking their portfolios while lying on the beach. 

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:11 | 5031764 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yesterday was a 90% down day so it's not looking so good

"NYSE declining volume versus advancing volume ended the day at 9.42:1. Declining shares versus advancing ended the day at 10.2:1"

So go for it Wahoo boy..

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:20 | 5031795 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

but when are silver & gold going to break loose from their control?

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:24 | 5031803 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

When they have no control of anything at all.

Coming soon.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:30 | 5031819 hairInTheSoup
hairInTheSoup's picture

never,

the soon to come bad employment us news (or the fake good one) is going to send usd upper;

 

no matter what usd goes up those days

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:11 | 5031772 stant
stant's picture

Guess Siri was right with that all hell breaks lose on July 27th question a few months back

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:14 | 5031779 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Siri has gone to the dark side.......we have word she's defected to Skynet.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:15 | 5031782 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Wasn't that Christine Lagarde?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:19 | 5031787 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Tax the serf's energy........let them eat cake.

 

That sick twisted little bitch spends a 1000 Euros on cab fare.....what the hell.....it's not like she's paying for it.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:17 | 5031788 stant
stant's picture

I think they took her ouiji board away

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:22 | 5031799 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Nothing happened from her little occult talk.....which is what makes it just that much weirder.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:23 | 5031802 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah but I think she's moar of the Tarot card and peering  into a bowl of water type a la another Frenchman Nastradamus, no?

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:14 | 5031783 PeterB
PeterB's picture

Hopefully there is no reason to. By the way is wahoo a type of pavlonian dog?

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:19 | 5031793 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah and one taking a dump on the tracks in front of a speeding freight train too..

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:18 | 5031791 Hindenburg...Oh Man
Hindenburg...Oh Man's picture

They've been working hard at their stations since 620 AM to get those futures back up. I can feel the effort through the charts. 

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:18 | 5031792 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

I'm not worried. All my money is safe with MFGlobal. Corzine has my back.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:41 | 5031839 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Until he doesn't.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:29 | 5031797 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

How is China gonna fix copper? http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=m5

Edit: After firing up the ol' feed from ICE/NYMEX/CME, shits getting real in energy land.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:26 | 5031807 booboo
booboo's picture

Ask Siri "how many plates can The Flying Pretenders have spinning in the air while riding a unicycle across a tight rope suspended over a pit of starving men with ak47's at one given time?"

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:37 | 5031829 max2205
max2205's picture

"I found three Crate and Barrels in your area".

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:38 | 5031833 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Three

Universal Answer of the Day.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:49 | 5031853 IANAE
IANAE's picture

SIRI or HAL...same as it ever was

 

Dave: "Open the pod bay doors HAL..."

HAL: "I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I can't do that."

Dave: "What's the problem?"

HAL: "I think you know what the problem is, just as well as I do."

Dave: "What are you talking about HAL..."

HAL: "This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it."

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:29 | 5031816 Callz d Ballz
Callz d Ballz's picture

Mornin Fred

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:36 | 5031826 wmbz
wmbz's picture

It's Friday, time to trott out some "better than expected" bullshit!

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:39 | 5031834 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

The concurrent equity selloff will once again push rates lower, and so on ad inf.

 

Exactly.  Bonds are where they are IN SPITE of the Fed, NOT BECAUSE of the Fed.

 

Some people will decide that 2.5% looks a lot better than -15%.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:40 | 5031836 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I suspect they are going to throw a stupid high jobs number out.  The DOW has already had its big break.  The bull market is over.  No data point, even if it were true, is going to stop the unwind of this bubble now that the money hose has been pinched off.  Nothing else matters to stocks but easy money.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:42 | 5031840 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Interesting political conundrum. Higher stocks with higher unemployment or lower stocks with lower unemployment.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:42 | 5031845 ChartreuseDog
ChartreuseDog's picture

Wile E. Coyote runs off the cliff, and hangs for a moment, pumping his legs in the air, then falls with a thin whistling sound...

This article asks why he's falling, but a better question is what held him up there in the air for so long.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 07:59 | 5031875 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

While I'm very negative concerning the economy it seems no suggestion of weakness no matter how subtle can exist because it may begin to unravel the already fragile consumer confidence. We should remember this is a long game and the ride may get wild.

Those in power don't want to enter the weekend or a holiday with a bad market. While I think the market is way to high and distorted it is difficult to time a top. More on the reason for bears to be cautious in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/04/bears-have-little-reason-for-conf...

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 09:06 | 5032099 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

If the market tanks too much, they already have big distractors (ebola, with its attendant martial law, letting loose the dogs of major war -no more patty-cake interventions, etc.) waiting in the wings. In other words, if people start crying too much, TPTB will simply give them something to really cry about.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:02 | 5031881 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Bwhahahahahahahahaha.  You're just looking at a default plain and simple as demand for energy simply collapses....along with prices of course.  With the dollar this weak prices will simply collapse for debt.

Tires for ten bucks.  Gasoline for a nickel.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:05 | 5031889 valley chick
valley chick's picture

But..but..but...fed fisher said this morning that they are 18 months ahead of schedule and expecting liftoff the beginning of 2015. /sarc

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:11 | 5031914 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Watched CNBC, looking for comical hand-wringing.  They didn’t disappoint.  A.R. Sorkin provided two gems:  a) “Was there ANY rhyme or reason for what happened yesterday?”  b) “I wonder how much of it was actual human beings making decisions, versus models”

 

At age 37, Sorkin finally realizes  a) there is no Santa; and b) the fake Santa w/ the Velcro beard was just an algorithm.   Don’t fret, Andrew, Jeeves will drop a few Gummy Bears into the double cognac he prepares for you this evening.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:58 | 5032068 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

What a sniveling little weasel he is.

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 08:34 | 5031980 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

just buy the dip, we will not be allowed to close three days red in a row plus the s&P is at the 89 day moving average, the bottom is in.  

Fri, 08/01/2014 - 14:18 | 5033865 Sorry_about_Dresden
Sorry_about_Dresden's picture

get busy Kevin Henry

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!