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Deutsche Bank "Raises The Warning Flag": What The Most Important Chart For The Market Reveals

Tyler Durden's picture


Back in 2010 we were the first to show that the only thing that matters for centrally-planned, Fed (and HFT)-manipulated markets is the size of the Fed's balance sheet and the only financial statement of any macro relevance is the Fed's weekly H.4.1 release. Initially mocked (but... but... the fundamentals), the subsequent proliferation of charts showing the correlation between the Fed's balance sheet and the S&P 500, has confirmed that virtually everyone - even the Treasury itself - has agreed that the only marginal driving force for the world's largest stock market - i.e. the catalyst for the biggest artificial bull market rally in recent history - is the Federal Reserve, specifically the amount of debt monetized/liquidity injected.

And then that chart slowly disappeared from view for the simple reason that for all of 2013, the Fed's balance sheet would grow by an equal $85 billion per month in linear "bottom left to upper right" fashion, resulting in an S&P500 that tracked this balance sheet growth tick for tick.

It is time to revisit this chart because as Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid reminds us, the days of relentless Fed balance sheet, and thus S&P, growth are over, thus the need by Deutsche Bank to "raise the warning flag".

The risk sell-off we've seen in recent weeks frustrates us a little as the chart we've published most this year has pretty much predicted that tougher times would come around July. We've been paying it a lot of attention for over a year now but decided to wait until the autumn before we raised the warning flags. The chart in question (included in today's pdf) is the one showing the Fed balance sheet and the S&P 500 (as a proxy for risk generally). As you can see, since the Fed balance sheet was used as an aggressive policy tool post-GFC, the graph suggests that the S&P 500 is well correlated with the size of the Fed balance sheet with the former leading the latter by 3 months. Given that the Fed have recently signalled that they will likely be finishing expanding their balance sheet in October, 3 months before that was July. This is important as virtually all of the mega rally in the last 5 years has come in the Fed balance sheet expansion periods. The other periods have been more challenging for markets.


In other words, the growth is over. As for the downside, well that's where the Fed's tightening rate hikes come into play, and once the market has determined the date when the Yellen Fed begins fighting "noisy" inflation and "lack of labor slack", watch as the entire stock market is sold off in calm, cool and orderly fashion. Just like high yield debt... 

... over the past month.


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Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:13 | 5044809 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:22 | 5044862 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

When did DB start hiring wild-eyed conspiracy theorists?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:34 | 5044919 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

And your point being?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:38 | 5044933 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Well, thanks alot, Captain Obvious.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:44 | 5044952 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

It's just so suspenseful...

What will blow first CDS timebomb, bond market, treasuries, Iran, Gaza, North Korea, China, Ebola, Ukraine, Obamacare, border crisis, California drought, massive government bankruptcies, a nuke in the west, or some yet unforeseen event.

It would be interesting to see Vegas odds on these events.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:47 | 5044969 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Way too many options to consider.   Is the Black Swan starting to warm up its wings? 

As long as it is not flying BUY, BUY, BUY!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:09 | 5045053 linniepar
linniepar's picture

Stack stack stack. Fify.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:33 | 5045613 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

"Projected path of Fed B/S"- Does that stand for "projected path of Fed BullShit"?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:49 | 5044974 Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

Nope march to new All Time High just started and will utilize latest shorts to squeeze them out. There is no way FED and centrla banks will let this or any other market to POP. There is always Belgium to come and save the day

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:54 | 5044987 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

If that was not a predictable Low Of the Day in ES then I don't know what is.   Yep, New ATH by end of August.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:55 | 5045002 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Or sooner

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 18:08 | 5046154 spieslikeus
spieslikeus's picture

Don't forget Fuku

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:04 | 5046340 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

Fuku too Mr. Miyagi

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:13 | 5046399 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

don't forget little green men

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:46 | 5046567 logicalman
logicalman's picture

If you are looking for odds on anything, Brit bookmakers are the best.

They'll give you odds on anything you might wish to put money on.

They are careful to make sure that on average the house always wins, but that's gambling for you.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:49 | 5044977 Spine01
Spine01's picture

This is boring, this was described already here. First FED RES stops QE, then starts increasing rates, then economy collapses into a triple dip recession, then FED RES restarts QE and lowers rates again, and so on so forth until infinity!

End result is that the party continues. For those who think the party will end soon in collapse, they need to look at history for a reference. Inflation of 10^13 is not unheard of in history in periods of 50 years, and during that time the party kept on going big time for those who knew how to dance to the different styles of music.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:35 | 5045179 Chief KnocAHoma
Chief KnocAHoma's picture

I've always hated those guys that could dance to all different kinds of music. What was it we used to call them.... Oh yeah... FAGS.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 21:43 | 5047088 trulz4lulz
trulz4lulz's picture

But never have we had the luxury of hyper information trading and real time spying applications. The ramification of instant info and its effect on a market has never been observed until now. So really it seems to me, that when they can no longer create the illusion or maintain its existence, that information will travel at light speed due to fiber optics. Horses, telegrapgh, newsprint, and word of mouth are nto as fast as the speed of light.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:30 | 5045155 Bloppy
Bloppy's picture

Hmm, the Burrito Bubble continues as CMG shoots up another $10 even if LOCO takes a day off. TSLA cultists have that POS surging higher again in order to kneel before their god, General Musky.

Meanwhile, Sean Hannity arrived in Israel today to get the facts for himself while Russell Brand shoots his mouth off from home:


Tue, 08/05/2014 - 07:12 | 5047941 SoilMyselfRotten
SoilMyselfRotten's picture

When he arrives in Israel which 'facts' will he receive?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:15 | 5044819 bobby02
bobby02's picture

"the graph suggests that the S&P 500 is well correlated with the growth of the Chinese maple in my back yard. "

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:50 | 5044979 bobby02
bobby02's picture

"This is important as virtually all of the mega rally in the last 5 years has come in the human population expansion periods. The other periods have been more challenging for markets."

Since early May, the Fed balance sheet has reached an unprecendeted size. As a result, ice cream consumption over the period has increased 50% q-o-q. If the evil banksters do not cease their heinous money printing, the generation born today will never know the joys of ice cream.

Tommy Carvel did not devote his life to fighting Skokie Nazis to have such an evil befall the exceptional, God-fearing people of these great United States

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:53 | 5044990 Spine01
Spine01's picture

spine001 did a multivariate correlation model where he only added the start and stop of the different QE's and the 6 month market look into the future and the correlation coefficient was 0.999 squared. If that is not correlated and time correlated nothing is. There was a serial time series correlation strongly suggesting causality too.

This was published as a comment on zerohedge by spine001 in 2013, I think.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:04 | 5045031 Wait What
Wait What's picture

to think, it only took DB 5 years to figure out what TD has been saying all along... and apparently spine001 figured out a year ago.

next thing you know everyone subject to the sleeper effect will be patting DB on the back for 'calling it' before anyone else.

the level of ignorance, stupidity, and delusion in the world is sometimes completely astounding.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:17 | 5044826 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Government paper about to become priceless...


(go ahead, think about it for a second before responding)

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:20 | 5044845 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Only the paper one, not electronic dollars.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:26 | 5044883 BandGap
BandGap's picture

In a very real sense when we think that the govenrment runs the economy then, well, they do.

They can pull the plug anytime. And they will when the time is right.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:33 | 5044916 ekm1
ekm1's picture

There are 3 co-equal powers in USA:


- president

- senate

- house


Then there is the deep state, lobbies warring each other for control of government money.


White "government" are you talking about exactly?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:49 | 5044976 vernwvu
vernwvu's picture





Just saying...

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:57 | 5045014 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Yes, we can't forget the SCOTUS lifers...

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:03 | 5045026 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Scotus has no army, no police. no money.



Mon, 08/04/2014 - 18:31 | 5046251 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Scotus has no army, no police. no money.




You sound like ol' Hickr'y. (allegedly)  The tragedy is, the US has adopted the ME mentality of “might makes right” whereas in its inception even foreigners found the “US was good because its people were good.” 

I know, especially now, 6 years into the current executive’s term, the polarization of the “American” people is just about complete, we may as a nation be facing the same dilemma we faced 150 years ago, i.e. “testing whether that nation or any nation so conceived and so dedicated can long endure”. 

Perhaps we’ve reached the limits of our endurance.  I hope and pray that’s not the case.  I would like to think we would recognize the need to voluntarily adhere to the rule of law and the Judiciary reclaims its rightful place in the US tri-unity design of checks and balances. 

Any jurist, legislator and /or executive appointee with anything other than a single, valid, US citizenship should be sent packing, if not tried as a traitor and dispatched as such.

And on a lighter note, End the Fed!



Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:24 | 5045121 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture





fixed it for you

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:35 | 5045184 innertrader
innertrader's picture

Companies and Organizations are FORCED to create a lobby to send $$$ to Washington to protect their businesss FROM the government!!!!  I'm NOT speculating, I have PERSONAL EXPERIENCE and knowledge.... going back 30 years!!!!!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:45 | 5045248 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Thank you

"Protecting" your business translates as screwing the other lobby's business, quite often and probably the norm recently.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:10 | 5045835 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Mob protection racket.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:48 | 5046580 logicalman
logicalman's picture

All of the above answer to the banksters.

Wake The Fuck Up!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:18 | 5044830 reTARD
reTARD's picture

Projected path of Fed BS, as in Fed bull shit?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:18 | 5044832 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

It's hard to notice the warning flag with all the distraction flags going up

Ebola flag
MH17 flag
Ukraine flag
Middle east flag

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:22 | 5044855 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

to say nothing of the "US government voluntarily abandons nation's territorial integrity" flag

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:29 | 5044898 Utah_Get_Me_2
Utah_Get_Me_2's picture

Federal government purchasing billions of rounds of small/medium caliber ammo and labeling those 'reverent of individual liberty' as terrorists FLAG

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:14 | 5045069 Fuku Ben
Fuku Ben's picture

How right you are icanhasbailout

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:56 | 5046099 Whootie_who
Whootie_who's picture

EU moral hazard play at the BES.. just shows the banksters they will always win when the gubberment is the pit boss, and the taxpayer will pay the bill

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:19 | 5044836 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Apple's new iPhone 6 will save us. Rumor has it that it comes complete with a Bomb Gaza and Ebola Virus game app.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:20 | 5044850 fonzannoon
Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:27 | 5044893 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Not as long as the ten year remains below 2.5%. 

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:37 | 5044922 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

There you go again fonz you homo.

Better yet, let's see if you catch Ebola.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:29 | 5044869 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Sure Doc, but the iPhone 6 factory in China blew up:

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:46 | 5044964 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Well the important thing is that the 75 Chinese gave their lives up for the iPhone collective.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:42 | 5045224 813kml
813kml's picture

Hipsters across the US shall fire up the Virtual Candle app in their memory.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:00 | 5045776 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Damn, they will take some time to replace those losses.

Although there may be a few score alive and entangled in the suicide nets outside.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:25 | 5044871 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:17 | 5045092 Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

you forgot Malaysian airlines

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:10 | 5046370 Ben Ghazi
Ben Ghazi's picture

Ebola victims flying on Malaysian Airlines, over a war zone.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:21 | 5044846 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Tyler's been running up this flag for as long as I have been reading here-2 years or so.

Glad main street is catching up.


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:16 | 5045087 Postal
Postal's picture

No, no, no. The sheeple need to stay asleep. As soon as they wake up, there's going to be an even larger run on guns, ammo, and other survival gear.


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:22 | 5044857 ekm1
ekm1's picture

If Bank Lobby thinks they can out-violence Neocons, they must be smoking something.


If bank lobby doesn't surrender money creating computers at NY Fed to Neocons, there will be real blood shed, in my view.

I fear....

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:24 | 5044874 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Well someone has definitely been smoking something. Thats about all I know.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:24 | 5044877 ekm1
ekm1's picture

That would be me

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:28 | 5044900 ekm1
ekm1's picture

Goldman already converging to my GDP calls, by the way.


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:19 | 5045101 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Got a LaGloria cubana series R in my hand right now !!!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:32 | 5044913 Utah_Get_Me_2
Utah_Get_Me_2's picture

Explain to me what Henry Paulson's 'there will be martial law' ultimatum was then?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:35 | 5044923 ekm1
ekm1's picture

bank lobby surrendered in 2008. They accepted bear stearns, lehman collapse.

Then Obama came to power. He is their man.

He started cleaning up neconons and military. Still ongoing.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:55 | 5045003 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"They accepted bear stearns, lehman collapse."


No they didn't. The bank lobby made out on like bandits on those deals. It was a great boon for them and blood in the streets is exactly what the major banks wanted. Then once they got everything they needed the accounting rules were changed back to accommodate them. make no mistake about it... the financiers are still in the driver's seat. 

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:57 | 5045010 ekm1
ekm1's picture


Obama came to power and they made away.

Agree, they are still in power.


What I'm saying:

Not for long.

Neocons will suffocate them.

Just my view

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:09 | 5045052 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

ekm: Isn't this simply also a strong dollar policy (neocon) vs a continuing weaker dollar policy (banksters).

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:15 | 5045078 ekm1
ekm1's picture

You are brilliant, absolutely brilliant.


So, yes, the answer is yes

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:40 | 5045213 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Thanks I think.

Btw. We know who's winning this argument so far ...

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:42 | 5045241 ekm1
ekm1's picture


No doubt, bank lobby has the upper hand thus far.

Not gonna last, in my view

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:27 | 5045941 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Thanks you two's for drawing me that pic.

I get it now.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:22 | 5044860 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

rate hikes, lolz

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:23 | 5044873 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

CFTC Charges J.P. Morgan Securities LLC with Repeatedly Submitting Inaccurate Large Trader Reports and Imposes a $650,000 Civil Monetary Penalty

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:24 | 5044875 Utah_Get_Me_2
Utah_Get_Me_2's picture

'Projected path of Fed Bull/Shit'  

Sounds about right.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:24 | 5044876 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

One realistic point is that even though the tapering is occuring, the yield kick back of Fed holdings will be re-invested which is still a helluva lot of money. If they start to actually shrink the balance sheet that is another thing but I havent seen that happen as of yet. So on the surface it may seem like its over, under the hood its harder to say. So the mess continues too get larger

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:34 | 5044917 oudinot
oudinot's picture

Yeah, I think you are right.  And I believe they will purchase bonds with the interest.  say with 4 trillion, say the avg. interest coupon 's 2% that's 80 billion , or a normal month's worth, let's call it 1/12 of what it was at the peak.

And, I am too simple in my calucations as there is a bunch of MBS maybe a 1.5 trillion or so and the coupon would be higher, but then so would the defaults.

Tue, 08/05/2014 - 08:25 | 5048035 Ghostdog
Ghostdog's picture

It will be interesting to see if that balance sheet starts to shrink or stay the same. I think that will tell you how theu really feel about their game

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:26 | 5044887 Billy Shears
Billy Shears's picture

Isn't this from the bank that was just accused by the U.S. of being at the epicenter of currency manipulation and megasized TBTF risk to global economic stabiltiy? Play nice, now... .

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:27 | 5044889 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture


Short Sharp Recession followed by

Un-publicized resumption of QE followed by


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:44 | 5044958 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

So, buy Gold during the short sharp recession period perhaps.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:21 | 5045109 gcjohns1971
gcjohns1971's picture

Give that man a prize!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:37 | 5045194 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

That will loose you money for sure gold and silver way to manipulated to make it an investment anymore. Buy it to save for 30 years and at the end you have what you bought.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:39 | 5045214 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Paper gold will always be available....I would not wait to buy physical...if the price falls supply will probably dry up. 

Imagine gold at 800/ounce but a 4 month 'wait'.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:30 | 5044903 q99x2
q99x2's picture

FED purchases stock directly independent of the 85 billion or whatever they say they are trhowing at it. 

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:12 | 5045070 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

It's essententially the Japanese solution.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 22:03 | 5047141 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Japanese population had a great savings ethic since after WWII, so their government was able to tap-into their savings.

In the US there is no such ability any more.

The FED buying its own debt is the final end to the fiat credit expansion.

The US and FED can not rely upon China or Russia or EU to keep buying the credit expansion.


QE is at $25B/month now and will be zero by October or November 2014.


Again, the FED purchases of their own debt is "at the margin" so is the finale...kaput...there is no more road.

It is probably why 'real' or 'tangible' structures are breaking down now (energy, land, arrangements, riots, food, etc.)


The first chart, Figure 1, shows the topping out of the last marginal expansion of fiat credit without rising interest rates.

Once the FED is fully tapped out (and it appears to be topping now), then interest rates will rise, and then all future credit will be expensive...too expensive to maintain.

All the rollover of old debts into new credit will be at an unsupportably high interest rate.

Then it is end-of-road meets clif.


Figure 1 shows the FED has reached the clif.

(any further future QE or expansion will raise risk and thereby rise interest rates...done).


When WallStreet gets a whiff of Figure 1...the markets could immediately respond.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:45 | 5044959 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture



DB 'raising the warning flag' translation: "(re)start the printing presses"

picture the dying cuato imploring Schwarzeggnogger ("start the reactor...")

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:46 | 5044961 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture



BANK points out blatantly obvious.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:54 | 5044991 Big Ben
Big Ben's picture

"Please, Maam. We'd like some more (QE)."

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 14:56 | 5045009 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Sure, I missed a large part of the Fed rally. But I am sure glad I do not own generic stocks at this juncture. Miners are good enough for me now.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:04 | 5045027 danpos
danpos's picture

I have a Q.


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:25 | 5045132 ArisAron
ArisAron's picture

Hey Tyler, how about this headline on the front page at 4:00pm.


Dow up +100. LOL.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:26 | 5045142 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Wake me up when they raise the WHITE flag.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:39 | 5045209 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

They rose it in NY city 2weeks Ago and we still here

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:28 | 5045145 giggler321
giggler321's picture

Can we have our gold back now?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:37 | 5045190 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

correlation is not causation/sarc

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:42 | 5045234 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Off topic but righteously so.

You know what fucks me off?  What gets under my skin?  What makes a mokery of the life we live now from the life we lived then?

Let me tell you bitchez.  100 years ago at 11pm tonight the English entered WW1.  During this filthy war which should have never happened some 16 million men lost their lives.

Run that through your heads. 16 fucking million souls were here and gone for fucking nothing.

And today, the 100 year anniversary of this event we had numerous events 'Celebrating' the death of millions, and the very worst bit of this was, they played 'God Save The Queem'.

They played 'God Save The Queem', and took the piss owt of 16 million dead people in the process.

Britain, England, The Commonwealth, any fucking piece of shit associated with these sceptic isles, hang your bastard heads in shame.  You played god save the fucking queen before giving the men and women, and fucking children reverence and acknowledgement for sixteen fucking millions worth of needless death.

You are fucking sick, to the very fucking core.  You sang for that cunt and beshmerched the memory of 16 fucking million souls for the cunt queem?

I am not ashamed, I am fucking livid with rage.  The royal family is worth more than 16 million lost souls, and you have the gall to ram this down our throats?

I am fucking boiling up with utter rage.  We should be ashamed as a country, ashamed as a nation, ashamed as a world we allow this in our names.

I am fucking apalled.

God save the fucking queen before 16 million poor fuckers who knew nothing and sent to their deaths?  How fucking dare you embarass the likes of me and an entire country on your bastard whims?

I pray for the awakening.

Mother fucking, disrespectable cunts.

I fucking hate this country, with the very being of my soul.  These disgusting bastards represent no one but themselves ZH.  Dont lump me in with these cunts when the day of reckoning comes, I had fuck all to do with this.

Filth, simple and utter filth.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:46 | 5045258 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Bullish for the banks.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:52 | 5045283 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Take it easy brother, I can sense that the vein in your forehead is about to burst. Relax and have a pint my friend, there time will come before this is all over with.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:00 | 5045344 Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture


I've said this before, I wouldnt mind having a pint with you.  Dont worry about me in that way, thats angry typing is all.

I am fucking livid with incandecent rage an inbred family of fucking filth is worth more than 16 million men women and children.  I cannot, with every fibre of my soul believe these depraved cuntish bastards are worth 16 million dead, one hundred years ago.

I really cant.  They honestly played god save the queen before the service on radio five live.

I could spit nail gun bullets.

Who in fuckings Dogs green land do they think they are?


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:22 | 5045522 STP
STP's picture

Here in the United States, at our local Supermarkets, you can see the magazines in the rack, the likes of People Magazine, Us, etc and they are agog about Prince George's first birthday, with exclusive photos of the Royal Baby.  It makes me want to puke.  Who gives a flying fuck, about the 'Royal Baby'?  Or any of those idiots over there, I could fucking careless about the 'Royals' and I can't figure out, why so many idiot Americans go all gaga over useless crap like this.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:16 | 5045880 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Lampedusa Count, Wrote the Leopard, a book about Sicily and the pain of 800 years of wars on that isle at the expense of the peasants.

Moving tale which can be resumed in his epitaph as auto proclaimed by his cynical hero who iconized that predator breed : we must change everything so that nothing changes. His time was up but not the time of his oligarchy class.

The 100 year commemoration is all about "never again" officially.., as they proclaimed in 1918 at the Versailles treaty signature.

We know that "never again" is not on the cards. Never was. So God save the Queen takes us back to that epitaph. It really says it all : we still sing the same song for which they all died knowing the successors to that same ruling class require the same sacrifices tomorrow.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:23 | 5045925 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

We are all held in contempt & convicted of being a useless eater in their eyes.

Quote from Jesse's site...

Their empire, His kingdom.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 15:44 | 5045250 CitizenPete
CitizenPete's picture

Actung actung! Zie charten geht die vong vay! alles in nicht im rectnung


Kaufen zie dip!


french transcombolulation:  runaway runaway! 

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:01 | 5045338 SmittyinLA
SmittyinLA's picture

I hear they ripped transocean too, when you wage war with Russia you try to crush oil & gold.

buy the dip

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:05 | 5045377 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

why don;t you buy ESI ... the mother of all BTFD.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 16:48 | 5045713 RiskyBidness
RiskyBidness's picture

Fuck!  I wish Yellen was a Nigger so I could be called a racist!!

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 17:02 | 5045791 falak pema
falak pema's picture

well she is a woman ... 

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:09 | 5046365 Who was that ma...
Who was that masked man's picture

Not proven and I sure won't be the one to find out.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 18:00 | 5046115 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Beware, we are already in the first stage, small and easy to dismiss as "crying wolf"...if you haven't gotten to higher ground when it arrives, it's too late


Mon, 08/04/2014 - 18:01 | 5046117 SemperFudge
SemperFudge's picture

Oh come on, everyone knows markets are going to crash again... just "when," and "how bad will it be" seem to be the only remaining questions. I'm inclined to think the next crash will be worse than 2008, but who knows? Now that the fed controls everything, they could probably prevent an outright crash before it gets really bad. But of course, maybe they WANT a really big crash for their own reasons...?

Too confused to know what the end-game is here.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:11 | 5046384 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

is that lock step or goose step?

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 19:31 | 5046480 bentaxle
bentaxle's picture

Why not taper, they've already done that 3 times, a fourth is no big deal. QE5 to start in 5..4..3

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 20:20 | 5046702 QQQBall
QQQBall's picture

warning flag? I thought they marked to market their derivative book

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 20:44 | 5046810 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture
Deutsche Bank "Raises The Warning Flag": What The Most Important Chart For The Market Reveals

At the margin of credit expansion...the first chart says it all, the market will soon shart, and Yellen too.   Thank you Tylers.

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 20:59 | 5046917 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Always thought the “most important chart for the market” was one that plotted the average lifespan of a dove in captivity against the current bull run (hint:  Yellen’s target is ~11 more yrs).

Mon, 08/04/2014 - 22:36 | 5047325 hedgiex
hedgiex's picture

One interesting feature from the chart is that relatively less outflow of funds to developing markets. Developing markets from the lesson of last Asia Crisis are this time not sucking the poison.

They fear too of their $ reserves being inflated away so much better for those with huge internal debts to soft land with their reserves. They fear inflation more than deflation as they have reached the limits of oppression.

Last week the German Bund came down together with S&P. Unexpected for in the norms of past market, there should be a flight to quality. This speaks of the stronger deflationary wind from developing economies. (Too arroganr for Fed & ECB to dismiss them).

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