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The US Needs to Stop Meddling in Russia-Ukraine Politics

EconMatters's picture




 

By EconMatters

 

West Point Speech & Foreign Policy Philosophy

 

It is ironic that President Obama in his West Point speech posited that the US couldn`t be the world`s police, and intervene in every single dispute all over the globe; and yet his foreign policy approach has ended up getting involved in every single dispute all over the world.

 

 

  

 

 

The worst possible approach is to give Putin more credibility at home by leveling sanctions and upping the stakes politically for Putin for staking American interests with Ukraine`s independence from Russian influence.

If an Enemy is Self-Destructive, Don`t get in their Way!

 

If Russia is stupid enough to get heavily involved in trying to dictate Ukraine’s future, then let him get all bogged down with this scenario as eventually market forces will determine the course for Ukraine. Just like the US in Vietnam, Russia in Afghanistan, or the breakup of the former U.S.S.R. eventually market forces will win the day if left alone, and even if not left alone, getting in the way just prolongs the inevitable because of ‘sunk-cost’ issues that slow down market forces that would otherwise prevail.

 

But by the US giving all this attention to the issue, and showing that this means so much for our interests this just reinforces Putin`s thinking that Ukraine is one heck of a key strategic piece that he must put more resources and energy towards trying to secure or align with Russia`s future status on the world stage.

 

Read More >>> China, Japan, Taiwan and US: Four to Party in Diaoyutai

 

Cost/Benefit for Putin has Changed because of US Involvement 

 

If left alone to his own devices, he will find the headache is not worth all the time and energy, not to mention scarce Russian resources, when the US just says fine you can have Ukraine if you want, we don`t care, knock yourself out Putin, get bogged down in a civil war with Ukraine, good luck with that! 

 

It is reverse psychology at its finest, the more premium you place a ‘value of importance’ on an issue, in this case Ukraine being aligned with Europe and the US, the more Putin wants to ensure that this doesn`t happen, and his cost/benefit analysis has entirely different dimensions and inputs. 

 

It has gotten to the point that Putin now calculates many scenarios where it is worth his time to be bogged down in the Ukraine conflict which just a year ago wouldn`t have been near as attractive for him. He remembers the breakup of the Soviet Union, he remembers Afghanistan, and he understands these types of ‘fighting against market forces campaigns’ that just eat up valuable resources year after year where no real political progress is ever made. He wasn`t waking up early each morning thinking to himself, ‘Gee I cannot wait to get bogged down in a civil war with Ukraine’!

 

Ego shouldn`t dictate Best Foreign Policy Approach or Re-Approach!

 

The President will never do it because it might make his ego look bad regarding his prior strategy, but Russia isn`t the same as the Iran situation, Ukraine is right in their proverbial backyard and sanctions are a waste of time here. It actually would be brilliant by Obama if he just changed course and said fine, after careful consideration if Russia is that interested in getting bogged down in Ukrainian politics, while the rest of the world is interested in growing their economies, then go for it as the US will no longer be invested in whatever market forces prevail in the region. 

 

In other words, the US devalues the strategic importance of Ukraine overnight, and eventually Russia discovers that trying to fight against Ukrainian independence isn`t all it’s cracked up to be! It’s not like Ukrainian independence has ever been that strategically important currently versus the last 50 years of history, it really isn`t that strategically valuable to the United States compared to all the bluster, hype, sanctions, and drama that this administration has projected onto this issue! 

 

President Obama only has himself to blame on this one, and hopefully he doesn`t double down from an ego perspective and make the situation worse, drama often creates drama where it wouldn`t otherwise be – remember the Middle East Spring and all that created drama, left alone things went back to normal as market forces dictated that pretty much business went back to usual in the region, and nothing really changed once people got bored with protesting and rioting as a profession. 

 

Read More >>> Taiwan, The Democratic China

Reverse Psychology & Market Forces

 

Just leave market forces to decide the fate of Ukraine President Obama you might just be surprised how the outcome that the US wants in the region comes to fruition much sooner by being left to its own devices – that’s the beauty of market forces. 

 

The Vietnam outcome was always going to be the same because the true market forces were always going to prevail, the US and Russia just delayed the inevitable outcome in the region. If President Obama wants to deescalate the Ukrainian-Russia conflict he should just back off and completely reverse course on the sanctions, it is reverse psychology at play, the analogy is one of a girlfriend who dumps the guy, and the guy goes overboard trying to get her back, this only reinforces in her mind that he is a ‘loser’, and she must be so much more ‘valuable’ on the open market if he is so distraught over the breakup!

 

President Obama through his actions has created a market where it previously didn`t exist from a value standpoint in the Ukraine, and now he and the United States are the ones bogged down in the conflict, and not Russia. Russia in effect through Obama`s actions have realized ‘found value’ right in their backyard – shoot Ukraine used to just be a headache for Russia, now it is a headache with global strategic value thanks to the United States.

 

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Thu, 08/07/2014 - 13:31 | 5059845 Herdee
Herdee's picture

I'm guessing that the reason why he is unable to talk to Putin is because he wanted his own selfish way.He wanted to bring NATO up to the Russian border.He'll get a taste of the same thing now because the Russians have decided that their response will be to rejuvenate a huge naval and military base in Cuba.Tit for tat.That'll keep the American budget in deficit and just what the stupid neo-cons don't understand.Force America to spend on its military until you bankrupt them and run their cities into ghettos like Detroit.Force them not to spend it on infrastructure.Just like Rome.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 13:07 | 5059666 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

When you're the playground bully that's what you do, bully.  Even if it is not in the bully's best interest, he knows no other way to act until he is beaten to a pulp.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 13:00 | 5059617 Perimetr
Perimetr's picture

you mean we don't want to have World War III?

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 15:31 | 5060613 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

banning Russian Vodka exports was the sure-fire beginning

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 11:30 | 5059040 SilvertonguedAngel
SilvertonguedAngel's picture

Shemps right, loved the title, but since when is Russia our enemy?

 

Bah, just a lame article.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 12:25 | 5059357 tempo
tempo's picture

U is in R backyard, its not our fight, the logistics are terrible for us.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 10:34 | 5058741 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Yet another news source added to the blatant .gov mouthpiece list. Sad.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 09:56 | 5058526 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

Another newspeak piece not worthy of ZH.  This guy touches on all the US.gov talking points.  Russia does not want Ukraine, it protected it's Navy bases in Crimea which is as expected.  Putin really doesn't want anything to do with this bankrupt backwater.  The fact that the Russian gas pipelines run through it is an inconvenience for Europe, and Russia is rapidly taking care of that.  Russia isn't the communist nation it was in the past and people need to wake up to that fact.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 10:36 | 5058749 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

I personally think ZH does it's readers a service by exposing this sort of yellow journalistic propaganda nonsense to it's readers so we will know which news sources are total .gov crapola.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 09:53 | 5058512 Postal
Postal's picture

Stop meddling in international affairs?! This from the same government that tells us that "keep and bear arms" doesn't really mean it, what kind of gas can we can have, and with whom we can have wild-kinky sex. To hell with the rest of the world, stop meddling at home.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 09:51 | 5058508 Lea
Lea's picture

" the analogy is one of a girlfriend who dumps the guy, and the guy goes overboard trying to get her back, this only reinforces in her mind that he is a ‘loser’, and she must be so much more ‘valuable’ on the open market if he is so distraught over the breakup!"

The author even gets the girl's reaction totally wrong, let alone all the rest. He has no clue about the real meaning of American foreign politics, i.e, a mixture of typical WASP arrogance, ignorance of history and cultures, pathological fear of losing world dominance (that one actually drives them utterly nuts), and a realistic fear of losing dollar hegemony (also a major cause for American leaders to run around, frenziedly wondering who else to kill). 

The title is the only right thing about this article.

 

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 09:50 | 5058501 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

Is this an Onion article?

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 10:40 | 5058770 Reaper
Reaper's picture

No, It was too farcical for the Onion.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 08:52 | 5058173 Quick
Quick's picture

This article shows Obama's foreign policy as completely stupid and totally made up BS.

The US started this mess to screw with Russia and it is not out of the realm of possibility that this clueless and completely directionless administration could pull an about face an look even more stupid and clueless than they presently appear !

Of course it would diffuse the situation and things would re ert to the pre US intervention and Russia would be doing business as usual with the addition of crimea to its landmass.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 08:03 | 5058001 Son of Captain Nemo
Son of Captain Nemo's picture
"The US Needs to Stop Meddling in Russia-Ukraine Politic" But won't and more importantly thinks that it cannot stop it's "meddling"

Looking into the crystal ball I have this vision of President Remus standing before the troops for a much needed pep rally before the biggest game to go all in in Ukraine.

He holds up a dollar bill and tells the troops the condition of that dollar bill and that it's all Russia's fault for not giving the U.S., British and Dutch oil companies all of it's oil and natural gas. It's up to "you" to defend your way of life and just as the IMF is looting and starving the people of Ukraine, so too will the President of the United States tell his troops what will happen to them and their families if they are not victorious on the field of battle... Whatever that will wind up looking like when the "white ash" settles!

By the way I truly believe he will be that blunt and the majority of zipper heads in camo will cheer him on when he makes that speech!

My prediction of course.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:59 | 5057998 Kina
Kina's picture

Ameerica has chosen the wrong ground and opponent on this. It is one Russia will decide it must win at all costs.

 

It is like Russia playing with Mexico, installing a Russian friedly leader and then fighting/killing ethnic American-Mexicans in the east, so as to establish a  military presence on the US border. Fucking crazy thing to do.....the US almost had a global nuclear war when Russia was gonna put missiles in Cuba. SO what do they think Russia is going to do in the exact same cricumstance on their border.

Does anybody think that Russia will allow the US a permanent toe-hold in Ukraine to later estbalish a military and missile presence??? Right on its border.....then US move along to do the same for other countries on the Russian border.

SO we Already know Russia CANNOT back down with regard to a US presence in the Ukraine. They will settle for a totally neutral Ukraine, but not a US centric controlled Ukraine with a presence.

 

The US must know this, and this is why they are totally stupid. They have no real goal, just meandering around the planet making trouble. Russia has a very clear goal and know exactly what it is they must achieve so will marshall the correcr activities for this. The US with no clear goal or indication of failure and success will be all over the shop like a pigs breakfast.....make a fucking mess everywhere and everybody including themesleves worse off.

 

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:36 | 5057954 himaroid
himaroid's picture

Those tbond shorts are praying for a miracle. Better get out while you can.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 06:34 | 5057890 Nassim
Nassim's picture

The underlying premise of this article is that the Russians "want" Ukraine. Nothing could be further from the truth. The West has played around for 23 years in Ukraine and helped its oligarchs loot the place. The West got them to be taught at school that the "Russians" had starved their grandparents and so on. Well, it was not the Russians, it was the Communists - and plenty of them were Ukrainian. Anyway, the USSR was run by a Georgian - Stalin - when that went on. Furthermore, the starvation was just as bad in a huge parts of Russia and many other places. For example, the proportion of people who starved to death was greatest in Kazakhstan.

Ukraine is a bankrupt country. Russia only wants NATO missiles not to be based there and for the Ukrainians to mind their own business. Not too much to ask, I would have thought.

Sadly, now we have a bunch of Zionists running Ukraine - few of them are ethnic Ukrainians or anything of the sort. That is the real problem for Russia.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 16:25 | 5060934 bilejones
bilejones's picture

The other underling premise is the Russia is an  "Enemy".

 

I don't subscribe to either premise.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:32 | 5057960 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Ukraine is a basket case and Western Europe could have made sure it wasn't decades ago. It simply needed to agree to NATO keeping out of the region and the EU Sponsorship funds (look how much they spend in Ankara) for propaganda could have ensured ordinary Ukrainians were not fleeced by crooks and gangsters. EU never sanctioned Ukrainian mobsters - Julia Tymoshenko's daughter married a man from Leeds !!!

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 06:29 | 5057887 AdvancingTime
AdvancingTime's picture

America has few military options in Russia's backyard unless it has the backing of a full and enthusiastic NATO and that is very unlikely. Europe has reason to be unexcited about a possible long and expensive conflict. While still trying to recover from a recession Europe would face fuel shortages and a massive spike in the price of natural gas. 

Currently Russia supplies much of the gas used in Europe, this gives Putin a great deal of leverage. If an actual ground attack were to occur few see the Russians as likely to rollover as other armies have when America approaches. More on this subject in the article below.

http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2014/07/putin-holds-all-cards.html

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 06:25 | 5057883 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

"In other words, the US devalues the strategic importance of Ukraine overnight, and eventually Russia discovers that trying to fight against Ukrainian independence isn`t all it’s cracked up to be!"

Wait, what?

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 05:32 | 5057842 Ondoron
Ondoron's picture

It's pretty obvious that EconMatters does not have much insight of what is really going on in Ukraine...

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 10:37 | 5058755 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

You are giving these tools of .gov waaaaaay too much credit.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 04:18 | 5057811 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

At least Putin goes to church and supports his military, and has a spine, and a brain.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 15:27 | 5060597 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Seconded.

Motion Carried.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 02:54 | 5057712 farmboy
farmboy's picture

I agree with WTFUD that this is a poor article. It fails to understand historic ties with Russia and does not take into account the constant agressive meddling of the US in all foreign affairs that the US sees fit to "advance" their case. Russia has now taken on the glove from the US regarding the financial dominace that is why the Ukraine is an important catalyst and will not be left alone by the US. I am very interested if the author can see  that his beloved "marketforces" in the US does not exsist anymore because of this wonderfull monetary experiment by the FED, otherwise the US would already be in a deep depression with its stock and bond market. If Russia moves in there I guess they take the profitable and resourcefull Donbass area, the rest of the Ukraine is of no importance. Sure some oligarchs/companies will be hurt by US sanctions but maybe Putin makes up by handing over the assets of the Ukrainian oligarchs that now fund private armies to fight against their people. All in all that would be positive.

Please mr Econmatters do not mention marketforces anymore until they are restored :)

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 02:21 | 5057680 Aussiekiwi
Aussiekiwi's picture

Don't know who is worse, Putin and Obama are both politicians, so you have to assume 90% of everything they say is simply spin, but facts are facts and Putin is definitely winning the hearts and minds at home while Obama's popularity keeps dropping.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 15:32 | 5060582 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Update. Putin is ex-KGB. Obumma is ex-Lawyer (a shit one). 

Guess who's gonna eat who alive in Ukraine.

Another US foreign policy failure/disaster approaches rapidly

Someone please sort those twats out in Washington. They can't even balance a budget let alone set the World to rights!

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 02:18 | 5057675 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Other than the suggestion/advice contained in the title if i were an economics teacher and a 13 year old student of mine submitted this woefully inaccurate account/understanding/portrayal of events on the subject matter i would question my suitability and worth to the profession.

I must ask you if you work for .gov as i fail to understand/comprehend how one could earn a living being so detached from the actual reality on the ground.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:44 | 5057976 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

This article is stupid. Utter tripe. The title is the only sensible part of it.

A mixture of falsehoods, fantasies, and battling with windmills, it's no wonder the author is embarrassed to attach his name to it.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 01:56 | 5057657 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Putin will have to be seriously provoked  to enter Ukraine. The challenge for the US seems to be to find a way to do that.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 03:07 | 5057730 silvermail
silvermail's picture

The Russia Needs to Stop Meddling in US-Ukraine Politics

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 07:47 | 5057979 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Go back to reading your comic books, son.

Thu, 08/07/2014 - 09:55 | 5058523 The Blank Stare
The Blank Stare's picture

I thought it was pretty good sarcasm. Not sure why all the junk.ed..ness.

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