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How Big Would A 'Real Correction' Likely Be?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submited by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:12 | 5065611 Bunghole
Bunghole's picture

What is this "market" you speak of?

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:12 | 5065620 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Your avatar is my favorite...her ass is amazing. Sorry. Sidebar.

 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:15 | 5065628 Slave
Slave's picture

But it doesn't deliver on his name. I am disappoint.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:18 | 5065647 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

When it goes bidless the "market" will have corrected itself.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:11 | 5065613 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

I'd say 50% is a "Real Correction"....We should be nowhere near where we are....

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:15 | 5065629 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'd say a real correction would be the day the markets don't open. Anything else is centrally planned.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:20 | 5065656 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

Im thinking on a monday, after a banking holiday is declared on a friday afternoon?

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:29 | 5065690 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

On a Friday evening. Never in the afternoon. 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:32 | 5065708 Alea Iactaest
Alea Iactaest's picture

100% Fib retrace takes us back to 666.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:55 | 5065894 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

HOLY SHIT REALLY? and a few weeks ago christine lagarde said a bunch of shit with 7s in it too!!!!! 666 and a bunch of 7s and a bunch of other occult shit is going down. ITS THE DEVIL.

I really wouldn't read that far into any of this shit. Its a bunch of liars and morons trying desperatly to keep their worldwide ponzi scheme alive as long as possible so they can leech a little more wealth off the populace by keping them stupid. Its as simpe as that

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:30 | 5066129 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

"As long as the shells are still being shuffled around people can be deluded into believing there is something worthwhile under one of them"

Anonymous 2014

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:51 | 5065870 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

oh i meant after close of business for banks and markets kind of afternoon, not afternoon as in right after lunch or something like that.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:34 | 5065718 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

Exactly! This market is just as full of shit as it was a week ago. And until they can get Putan to strike or get into Syria and get a jihad going in America they will run up as much debt as they have to. The US debt clock is up 60 billion this week 1trillion in 10 months but nobody says shit. So nothing to see here move along

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:38 | 5066185 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Any illusions about whether or not that debt will ever be paid off can be dispersed here and now, because the way the system is designed total debt can only go up.  In fact, there is not enough money in existence to pay off that debt even if everyone in world decided to go all in on it right now.   

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:23 | 5065662 sidiji
sidiji's picture

you idiots keep screaming correction correction, and then money printing inflation inflation...guess what you dummies, in inflation markets inflate along with everything else.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:34 | 5065737 dirtyfiles
dirtyfiles's picture

I say 70% would bring as to the real value

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:53 | 5065883 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

If one were to be grading this market, it would be getting a A- for D+ fundamentals.

 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:12 | 5065616 813kml
813kml's picture

A real correction would be banksters falling from the sky.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:13 | 5065623 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Sometimes we get "unintended consequences" like what you speak of....

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:19 | 5065650 813kml
813kml's picture

In a just world, those consquences would definitely be intended.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:39 | 5066192 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Banksternado over Hawaii??!!!!

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:55 | 5065893 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Wells work too.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:28 | 5066110 markar
markar's picture

We've actually seen a bit of that recently. Stay positive. A downpour usually starts with a trickle.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:15 | 5065631 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

...assuming that this market allowed for true price discovery of course.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:15 | 5065632 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

No matter how big the correction, Yellen can print more than that.  

BTFD, or you are an unpatriotic American unlike Warren Buffet or Bill Gates or Jamie Dimon.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:17 | 5065636 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

It needs to be a confidence crushing event that you wake up to, futures limit down 10% and then have it go thru the 20% and 30% suspension cycles until a significant number of people driving Teslas start ramming them into bridge abutments to avoid having to face the music.

That's my happy place, what's your's?

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:26 | 5065682 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

mine is that when what you describe comes to pass, people direct their anger where it should be. I'm not saying wall street is innocent(I believe most of them are criminals), I'm not defending what they have done at all, but none of this would have been possible without the federal reserve and the government. I just hope this next crash wakes people up to reality, and these institutions get their due

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:20 | 5065644 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

With leverage averaging around 30% market wide in order to chase some yield, it only takes a 4% 'correction' to completely lose everything, and ram their Teslas into bridge abutments in order to avoid facing the margin call.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:18 | 5065645 toady
toady's picture

My mom and older brother moved their money to more conservative positions about six months ago. I keep telling them in is in, if they really want safety they need to cash out and get physical assets.

 

They mumble about tax issues and wander off... I hope they chose their positions well!

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:19 | 5065648 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

We must break 666. 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:24 | 5065673 starman
starman's picture

Big? Just sayin.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:26 | 5065678 SilverRoofer
SilverRoofer's picture

Dow 3000

Gold 10000

Silver 1800

Copper 35.00

Ect

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:32 | 5065702 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

what you say would require people to run out of stocks and pile into gold and silver. They won't. Ever. Too conditioned against it. They may sit on the sidelines for a while as stocks go down the shitter again, but once they start printing again, stocks will go up alongside gold and silver. The difference is those stocks will be priced in increasingly worthless dollars, and the markets won't rise as fast as the dollar value falls. Gold and silver, on the other hand, will just be gold and silver, and you probably won't care what the dollar price for either is, since you aren't going to be willing to give any up in exchange for dollars, and neither will anyone else

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:51 | 5065860 SilverRoofer
SilverRoofer's picture

Soon or later the printing press will run out of ink

Those that think its going to go on forever will be fukd

 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:20 | 5066063 Eyeroller
Eyeroller's picture

Yellen's printers don't need ink.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:45 | 5066247 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

After more than two years of patience I'm still sticking to my guns with the next big moves being flights to safety, involving sliding equities and a rush into bonds first, followed by a most tragic unwinding of the bond bubble and then rocketing commodity (including PM) prices as political isolationism of the US and many other nations takes hold.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:51 | 5065854 _SILENCER
_SILENCER's picture

It is time for me to bump up my silver stash. Before, I've always done face to face cash transactions at a dealer in Burbank. Do you guys prefer that method, or is online a safe way to go? And if so, what sites have been stellar in their behavior?

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:03 | 5065951 Greenskeeper_Carl
Greenskeeper_Carl's picture

ive bought from apmex and silvertowne, had nothing but good experiences with both. If you just want generic bars or rounds for the cheapest possible price, go to silvertowne and order one of the several unique bars they make typically come with free shipping and are cheaper than ive seen anywhere else. Apmex will sometimes beat them in price, but only if you are ordering a lot(several thousand $ worth) at a time. That said, ive found a good local place who i now give the majority of my business. Its a little higher of a premium, but I prefer cash and carry, face to face business transactions.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:53 | 5066327 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

JM Bullion has free shipping on all orders, which is rather nice if you're not placing a single large order or want to just buy something small to give them a try.

http://www.jmbullion.com/silver/

And since silver is the best conductor known there are simple tests to ensure you are getting the real thing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaYh3SlRK0w

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:27 | 5065685 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

How many angels can dance on the head of a pin?

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:33 | 5065713 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

focus on tomorrow and next week.

 

focusing on what will happen in 6 months can be detrimental to your trading health

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:33 | 5065716 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Mean reversions yes, but with QE the mean keeps moving up while you're not looking.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 12:42 | 5065793 Muppet
Muppet's picture

"full-fledged bear markets rarely happen when everyone is on the lookout for one"

Myopic...  everyone has no clue.    Ask your landscaper, garbage man, teachers, carpenter, home depot employee, waiter, dental hygenist... you'll find very few that know or care about the stock market.

We on ZH are tuned-in because we, I suspect, have some skin in this bullshit GAME.   I know my friends and family are simply working.  They really don't have time nor give a crap.   They watch sports more than stocks.

Everyone doesn't know... rather, the few with some savings... only occasional learn (every 5 years or so) from their broker that they will never have enough to retire.  

Thats everyone

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:03 | 5065942 Itchy and Scratchy
Itchy and Scratchy's picture

I'd say a 50% rally from current levels wud be a good korrecshun!

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:16 | 5066025 Ban KKiller
Ban KKiller's picture

"Real Correction" file under "Real Bookkeeping", "Real Transparency" or even under "Real Truth"...ha-fuckin' ha! 

What does Auntie Yellen say? 

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:17 | 5066044 Wakemaker
Wakemaker's picture

I like my Monthly chart better than Tylers because it just called a top.

http://tinyurl.com/mbroor3


Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:27 | 5066103 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

OT but the ten year is getting kicked in the crotch, anyone still believe we will turn out much differently than Japan if we survive a few more years??

..there simply is no bridge back, it got burned.

All that's left is to ride this puppy into the ground and then start the finger pointing towards someone totally innocent if history is consistent.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:57 | 5066355 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Yes, the entire system has to change, and America will be very very lucky if it can elect the people who will make the necessary changes without assuming dictatorial type power over the populace.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:28 | 5066104 lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

the trendline above was created by linear scale.....iw we use logaritmic scale, SP500 pass by 1.800.....

1.800 is my first target to this correction........

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:34 | 5066152 q99x2
q99x2's picture

You'll never know because the FED is using software to control the markets since December 2011.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 13:45 | 5066256 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The Fed has access to unlimited funds and seems to be active in supporting the appearances of stability. 

Are you postulating that the Fed is tired of having the numbers look good? Because as far as I can see (and read) it is the Fed and not the underlying economy that keeps the numbers where they are.

Fri, 08/08/2014 - 15:14 | 5066859 PoliticalRefuge...
PoliticalRefugeefromCalif.'s picture

..are you telling me this market is not driven by legitimate price discovery?

I think their main concern is now making a smooth egress and shifting ultimate liability without tipping the hand, and that is going to be a real trick today.. giving it a twenty percent haircut to convince the last to get back on board without the bottom falling out just might backfire because there are a lot of itchy triggers not wanting to be the staked goat.

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